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Department of Meteorology Climate Change: Current State of the Science Brian Hoskins Director, The Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College “Greenhouse” gases determine height of layer from which heat escapes More greenhouse gases: higher level colder temperature less heat lost global warming (water vapour) carbon dioxide, methane,… Fourier (1827), Tyndall (1861) Temperature and greenhouse gases in past 650,000 y nitrous oxide carbon dioxide methane proxy for temp time today IPCC 2007 Published estimates of NH temperature in the past 1000 years IPCC 2007 Causes of the current imbalance in the energy budget IPCC 2007 IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment Report: “Global Warming is unequivocal” Since 1970, rise in: Global surface temperatures Tropospheric temperatures Global ocean temperatures Global sea level Water vapour Rainfall intensity Precipitation in extratropics Drought Extreme high temperatures Summer Greenland ice sheet melt Decrease in: NH Snow extent Arctic sea ice Glaciers Cold temperature extremes Surface Melt on Greenland Maximum melt 7x10 5 Maximum melt extent (km2) Trend: 0.7% / year 6x10 5 5x105 4x10 5 3x10 5 2x10 5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) 20th Century Continental Temperatures: Observed & Modelled with & without anthropogenic forcings IPCC 2007 Projections of globally averaged surface warming Different scenarios IPCC 2007 Figure 11.5 Mean changes 1980-99 to 2080-99 according to 21 models IPCC 2007 UKCIP08 Doubled CO2: Projected changes in probability distributions for summer day temperatures in Southern England Hottest day of summer Average day of summer Hadley Centre Daily rainfall change due to CO2 doubling Doubled CO2: Changes in probability distributions for summer wet days in Southern England Wettest day of summer Average wet day of summer Hadley Centre Tackling the anthropogenic climate change problem By emitting greenhouse gases to the atmosphere it is very likely we are perturbing the climate system in a dangerous way. What can we do? 1. Adapt to whatever happens: adaptation 2. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation 3. Do something else to compensate: geo-engineering Greenhouse gas equivalents and production by sectors (IPCC) UK Climate Change Bill • Commitment to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 60% from 1990 levels by 2050 • Establishes system of legally binding “carbon budgets” • Establishes the CCC as an independent body to provide expert advice on budget levels and the policies to reach them Through Parliament & signed by the Queen Nov 2008. First Report 1 Dec 2008 18 Climate Change Committee: Responsibilities Recommend • 2050 CO2 target: • 60%, 80%, or other Identify implications of proposed budgets for • Competitiveness • First 3 CO2 budgets: 2008-12, 2013-2017, 2018-2022 (≥26%) • Security of supply • Fuel poverty • Fiscal revenues • • The regions • Ancillary environmental effects • • How much buy-in of credits allowed Whether & how international aviation & shipping should be included Budgets for CO2 or all GHGs Annual reports on • Progress against budgets • Extent of borrowing/banking • Other? Department of Meteorology The Grantham Institute for Climate Change Climate Change in an Uncertain World There are many uncertainties but this should not obscure the imperative for urgent action towards significant mitigation of likely climate change & adapting to changes we cannot avoid Such action is possible and would have many other benefits Changes in the track density of mid-latitude storms 1979/2003-1958/1978 Central pressure at least 40mb below a background state Medium strength (20-40hPa) Hoskins & Hodges - Changes in Climate Extremes Summer 2003: record warmth in Europe Temperature anomalies Under clear skies the ground dried out and then all excess energy from the sun heated the ground This was possible only because there were no weather systems coming in from the Atlantic Schär et al (2004) Reasons for Confidence in Model Projections •Models built on basic physics •General consistency of globally averaged T response from simplest to most complex •Success in forecast/hindcast of weather, seasonal climate, impact of Pinatubo, past century •Simulation of phenomena such as El Niňo, storms Reasons for Lack of Confidence in Model Projections •Underestimation of natural variability? E.g. 1940s •Uncertainty in forcing used for past century, e.g. solar, aerosols •Only just starting to have interactive atmospheric chemistry & carbon cycle •Uncertainty in cloud behaviour, aerosol effects, solar variability,… •Poor representation of some phenomena particularly on smaller scales Impacts of global warming in different sectors •Water: increases & decreases; more exposed to water shortage •Ecosystems: species shifts & extinctions •Food: changes in possible crops; more reductions than increase in production •Coasts: increases in coastal erosion & flooding •Health: increases in malnutrition & infectious diseases; changes in e.g. malaria; increases in deaths from heat, floods & droughts, but decreases in deaths from cold Natural causes of climate variability and change Orbital parameters Explosive volcanoes Solar activity Plus natural internal variability IPCC (2007) Surface Temperature Projections 2020s & 2090s relative to 1980-99 Global mean 2020s 2090s Projected patterns at end of 21st century: Change (%) in precipitation for one scenario Dec-Feb June-Aug Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions This continues the observed patterns in recent trends IPCC 2007 Mechanisms for extreme changes? •Large dynamical ice sheet loss: Greenland & West Antarctic •Reduced carbon absorption/emission: soil, vegetation, ocean •Methane emission from melting tundra, peat, hydrates •Rapid change in the circulation of the atmosphere/ocean: reduction in the Atlantic northward heat transport frequency or nature of ENSO Asian monsoon circulation summer European blocking nature or location of winter storm-track nature or location of tropical cyclones •Complex dynamical system behaviour