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Global Climate Change Climate Change Exhibit at AMNH Our Atmosphere Nitrogen 78.094% Oxygen 20.946% Argon 0.934% Carbon Dioxide 0.038% Avg Water Vapor >1% Other 0.002% Outline: Global Climate Change • Weather and Climate • Historical Perspective • The Greenhouse Effect and the Greenhouse Gases • Driving Forces of Climate Change • Effects of Climate Change • Temperature Estimates • Mitigation Weather and Climate Earth’s balanced budget Weather Generation U.S. Climate http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/mpg/169068main_temp_anom_w_date_320x240.mpg North American Weather http://www.myfoxaustin.com/myfox/pages/Weather;jsessionid=B284C4931E6B746 81A850D0FBC3739D2?pageId=9.1 Historical Perspective Historical Climate Change Mass Extinctions Clues from Austin’s Geology http://www.utexas.edu/tmm The Texas Memorial Museum/ Cretaceous – Tertiary K/T Extinction Marine Regression Extraterrestrial Impact Volcanism K/T EXTINCTION Chixalub Crater Geologic Time Scale and Extinctions Climate Data Historical Climate Change Ice Cores Ice Core Tree Rings Dendocronology Annual Average Global Surface Temperature Anomalies 1880-2016 Historical Records 1000 years to present Climatic records from 1880 The GreenHouse Effect The GreenHouse Gases The Greenhouse Effect The Greenhouse Effect The Greenhouse Effect The Greenhouse Gases (Halocarbons) Greenhouse Gases Water Vapor Greenhouse Gas Sources CO2-Carbon Dioxide Fossil Fuel Coal Gas Forest Burning Cement Manufacture Removal of Forest reduces carbon sink Global Fossil Fuel Emmissions CO2-Carbon Dioxide CO2-Carbon Dioxide CH4 - Methane CH4 - Methane http://www.methanetomarkets.org/partners/country/usa.htm Methane Hydrate NO2 NO2 Ozone • In the stratosphere, ozone forms the ozone shield. • In the troposphere, ozone is a greenhouse gas Ozone Smog New York, New York The hole in the Ozone Halocarbons (Chloroflourocarbons) Styrofoam Greenhouse Gas Sources http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html Greenhouse Gas Concentrations GAS Pre-1750 concentr ation1 Current tropospheric concentration2 GWP (100-yr time horizon)3 Atmospheric lifetime (years)4 Increased radiative forcing (W/m2)5 Concentrations in parts per million (ppm) 2806,7,8 377.37 1 variable4 1.66 7308/6888 1847>9/17309 23 124 0.5 2708,10 3199/3189 296 1144 0.16 25 344 n.a.4 hours-days 0.354,5 CFC-11 (trichlorofluoromethane) (CCl3F)</< td> zero 2539/2509 4,600 45 CFC-12 (dichlorodifluoromethane ) (CCl2F2) zero 5459/5429 10,600 100 Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) zero 939/929 1,800 35 Methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) zero 239/229 140 4.8 HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane) (CHClF2) zero 1749/1559 1700 11.9 HFC-23 (fluoroform) (CHF3) zero 1410 12,000 260 Perfluoroethane (C2F6) zero 310 11,900 10,000 Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) zero 5.2211 22,200 3,200 0.0025 Trifluoromethyl sulfur pentafluoride (SF5CF3) zero 0.1212 ~ 18,000 ~ 3,200 (?) < 0.00015 Carbon dioxide (CO2) Concentrations in parts per billion (ppb) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Tropospheric ozone (O3) Concentrations in parts per trillion (ppt) 0.34 for all halocarbons collectively, including many not listed here. Climate Drivers ***Sources of Climate Change*** or What causes global warming? Climate Drivers • Milankovich Cycles • Ocean Convection • Solar Variability • Volcanic Emissions and Global Dimming • Anthropogenic Sources Milankovitch Cycles • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLAYRdSnRSI Ocean Conveyor Belt Solar Variability Volcanoes Volcano CO2 vs Anthropogenic CO2 1. Ratio of heavy to light carbon indicates a fossil fuel sources 2. Ratio of Oxygen to Nitrogen has decreased indication oxygen is combining with carbon 3. Carbon 13 is increasing relative to Carbon 14 indicating that “dead” carbon is being added to the atmosphere Global Dimming Aerosols Planetary Albedo Carbon Sinks Warming vs Cooling • • • • • Warming Effects Greenhouse Gases Tropospheric Ozone Decreased planetary albedo Deforestation Volcanic Eruptions (CO2 emissions) • • • • • • Cooling Effects Global Dimming Volcanic Eruptions (ash in stratosphere) Anthropologic Aerosols Increased Planetary Albedo Stratospheric Ozone Carbon Sinks Historical Records 1000 years to present Temperature Increase 1000 years Temperature Change last 1000 years Temperatures within the last 100 years The Effects of Climate Change Polar Bear SOS! • http://www.nwf.org/pola rbear/ • http://www.youtube.com /watch?v=oZlLecC5eNo • http://www.youtube.com /watch?v=ua8jF1ZPaAU& feature=related The Effects of climate change • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • shifts weather patterns causing droughts and flooding increases hazards such as storms, landslides, droughts and wildfires Changes rainfall patterns and soil moisture Alters agricultural zones Melts mountain snowcaps Melts glaciers and ice sheets Melts permafrost raises sea level Leads to the extinction of species desertification more wildfires Loss of seasonal sync Loss of civilization sync Increases plant, animal and disease range Alters and destroys habitat Acidifies the Ocean Bleaches the coral Reduces snowpack that provide cities with water Arctic • 3-26-08 Arctic Ice Sheet Collapse http://youtube.com/watch?v=r2ceKlzF6Ak Antarctica • Melting Sea Ice and its effect on seabirds, walruses and polar bears http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5-F30YFEv8&NR=1 Greenland http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KF2l9A9AqHs Glacial Retreat The Glaciers are Melting 1875 photo courtesy H. Slupetzky/University of Salzburg Glacial Retreat Portage Glacier 2002 Portage Glacier 1950 (historic photo from the Lulu Fairbanks Collection, University of Alaska Library, used by permission.) Glacial Retreat Snowpack Reduction Temperature Extremes European Heat Wave 2003 Loss of Seasonal Sync http://www.nationalwildlife.org/nationalwildlife/arti cle.cfm?issueID=63&articleID=1053 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Wild Life and Climate Change 1. BLACK GUILLEMOTS On Alaska's Cooper Island, populations of black guillemots are declining as sea ice recedes, taking with it the birds' primary prey: Arctic cod, which live under the ice. For more information visit: www.cooperisland.org 2. SOCKEYE SALMON Extremely high water temperatures accompanied by drought-induced low water flows led to the 1998 deaths of tens of thousands of sockeye salmon in British Columbia-a preview of what's to come, say some scientists. 3. SOOTY SHEARWATERS Between 1987 and 1994, the number of sooty shearwaters off the U.S. west coast decreased by 90 percent. Some scientists attribute the decline to changes in ocean temperatures and currents caused by global warming. 4. SNAILS, SEA STARS AND OTHER INTERTIDAL CREATURES In Monterey Bay, California, the ranges of intertidal invertebrates such as limpets and snails have been shifting northward for the past six decades as sea and air temperatures rise. 5. EDITH'S CHECKERSPOT BUTTERFLIES The distribution of Edith's checkerspot butterfly, which extends from the west coast of southern Canada through northern Mexico, is contracting. In the southern portion of the butterfly's range, 80 percent of all populations have become extinct. 6. MEXICAN JAYS In southern Arizona, the breeding season of the Mexican jay advanced by 10 days between 1971 and 1998. The change correlates with spring monthly temperatures, which rose 4.5 degrees F during the same period. 7. AMERICAN ROBINS In Colorado, robins are migrating from low to high elevations where they breed two weeks earlier than they did in the late 1970s. Many birds now arrive before snow melts. 8. AMERICAN PIKAS Scientists say warming in the U.S. Great Basin has contributed to the extinction of 7 of 25 populations of American pika. Sensitive to temperature changes, these high-elevation mammals have nowhere to move. 9. POLAR BEARS On Canada's Hudson Bay, early melting sea ice has decreased the amount of time polar bears have to hunt seals, their primary prey. As a result, bears today weigh less and give birth to fewer cubs than they did 20 years ago. 10. RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS These migratory birds are arriving at their breeding grounds in northern Michigan 21 days earlier than they did in 1960. 11. AMERICAN LOBSTERS In western Long Island Sound, large numbers of lobsters died mysteriously during September 1999. Some researchers suggest that high water temperatures wiped out the crustaceans, which were living at the southern limit of the species' range. 12. PROTHONOTARY WARBLERS For nearly two decades, prothonotary warblers have been returning to breeding grounds in Virginia from wintering grounds in South America and the Caribbean a day earlier each year as springtime temperatures rise. 13. AMERICAN ALLIGATORS The distribution of the American alligator, which ranges from the Carolinas south to Florida and west to Texas, appears to be shifting northward in some regions. Rising sea level may also force the freshwater reptiles inland, where they would encounter more development. 14. LOGGERHEAD SEA TURTLES Off the Atlantic coast of Florida, threatened loggerhead sea turtles are coming ashore to nest 10 days earlier than they did in 1989. During the same period, offshore ocean temperatures have increased 1.5 degrees F. 15. CORAL REEFS Off the shores of many Caribbean islands, higher water temperatures are causing corals to expel their symbiotic algae-or bleach-which can lead to coral death and damage to entire reef ecosystems. 16. GOLDEN TOADS In the first species extinction attributed to global warming, the amphibians have disappeared from their only known habitat, Costa Rica's Monteverde Cloud Forest. Loss of Civilization Sync Darfur, Sudan Climate Change and World Poverty Agricultural Effects • Change in soil moisture • Change in rainfall pattern • Change in Temperature Rice Field Being Flooded Terrestrial Habitat Loss • The Golden Toad went extinct in 1989 The Cloud Forest Habitat Expansion • Malaria and Dengue Fever carrying Mosquitoes Increasing Wildfires • Longer Summer growing season • Longer Fire Season from less snow cover Altered Weather Patterns • Rainfall pattern change Altered Weather Patterns • Rainfall pattern change • Drought and Desert Texas Drought Monitor Sea Level Rise • EPA 7.2 to 23.6 inches or 0.6 - 2ft • Other sources range to 6 feet • Most likely 3-4 feet • Sea level rise will vary geographically Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Lousiana Ocean Rise Texas Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Effects • Pacific Islands • Alaskan Islands Ocean Warming Tropical Storms Katrina Hurricane Frequency Marine Habitat Loss: Coral Bleaching Bleached Area of the Great Barrier Reef The Atmosphere Shifts The Atmosphere Shifts The Surface Heats Up Ocean layers warm The Atmosphere Shifts • • Recent research shows that human activities have lifted the boundary of Earth's lower atmosphere. Known as the troposphere (from the Greek tropos, which means "turning"), this lowest layer of the atmosphere contains Earth's weather. The stable layer above is called the stratosphere. The boundary that separates the two layers, the tropopause, is as high as nine miles above the equator and as low as five miles above the poles. In an astounding development, a 2003 study showed that this tropopause has shifted upward over the last two decades by more than 900 feet. [10] The rising tropopause marks another human fingerprint on Earth's climate. In their search for clues, scientists compared two natural drivers of climate (solar changes and volcanic aerosols) and three human drivers of climate (heat-trapping emissions, aerosol pollution, and ozone depletion), altering these one at a time in their sophisticated models. Changes in the sun during the twentieth century have warmed both the troposphere and stratosphere. But human activities have increased heat-trapping emissions and decreased stratospheric ozone. This has led to the troposphere warming more because the increase in heat-trapping emissions is trapping more of Earth's outgoing heat. The stratosphere has cooled more because there is less ozone to absorb incoming sunlight to heat up the stratosphere. Both these effects combine to shift the boundary upward. Over the period 1979-1999, a study shows that human-induced changes in heat-trapping emissions and ozone account for more than 80 percent of the rise in tropopause height. [10] This is yet another example of how science detectives are quantifying the impact of human activities on climate. The Atmosphere Shifts • Two natural drivers of climate – • solar changes and volcanic aerosols Three human drivers of climate – heat-trapping emissions, aerosol pollution, and ozone depletion • The Atmosphere shift has led to the troposphere warming more because the increase in heattrapping emissions is trapping more of Earth's outgoing heat. • The stratosphere has cooled more because there is less ozone to absorb incoming sunlight to heat up the stratosphere. • Both these effects combine to shift the boundary upward. • Over the period 1979-1999, a study shows that human-induced changes in heat-trapping emissions and ozone account for more than 80 percent of the rise in tropopause height. • Recent research shows that human activities have lifted the boundary of Earth's lower atmosphere. The boundary that separates the two layers, the tropopause, is as high as nine miles above the equator and as low as five miles above the poles. In an astounding development, a 2003 study showed that this tropopause has shifted upward over the last two decades by more than 900 feet. End of ***Effects of Climate Change*** Temperature Estimates Temperature Estimates Figure 2: Projected future regional patterns of warming based on three emissions scenarios (low, medium, and high growth). Source: NASA Earth Observatory, based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) Temperature PRedictions Temperature projections to the year 2100, based on a range of emission scenarios and global climate models. Scenarios that assume the highest growth in greenhouse gas emissions provide the estimates in the top end of the temperature range. The orange line (“constant CO2”) projects global temperatures with greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized at year 2000 levels. Source: NASA Earth Observatory, based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Temperature Prediction EPA’s climate website http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html • Temperature Change Projections • Due to uncertainties about future emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases, their net warming effect in the atmosphere, and the response of the climate system, estimates of future temperature change are uncertain. With these caveats in mind, the IPCC made the following projections of future warming (IPCC, 2007): • The average surface temperature of the Earth is likely to increase by 2 to 11.5°F (1.16.4°C) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980-1990, with a best estimate of 3.2 to 7.2°F (1.8-4.0°C) (see Figure 1). The average rate of warming over each inhabited continent is very likely to be at least twice as large as that experienced during the 20th century. • Warming will not be evenly distributed around the globe (see Figure 2): – Land areas will warm more than oceans in part due to water's ability to store heat. – High latitudes will warm more than low latitudes in part due to positive feedback effects from melting ice (as discussed above). – Most of North America; all of Africa, Europe, northern and central Asia; and most of Central and South America are likely to warm more than the global average. Projections suggest that the warming will be close to the global average in south Asia, Australia and New Zealand, and southern South America. • The warming will differ by season, with winters warming more than summers in most areas. • For additional explanatory information about some of the projected spatial and seasonal differences in warming, see the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Sea Level Changes Past and projected global average sea level. The gray shaded area shows the estimates of sea level change from 1800 to 1870 when measurements are not available. The red line is a reconstruction of sea level change measured by tide gauges with the surrounding shaded area depicting the uncertainty. The green line shows sea level change as measured by satellite. The purple shaded area represents the range of model projections for a medium growth emissions scenario (IPCC SRES A1B). For reference 100mm is about 4 inches. Source: IPCC (2007 Sea Level Rise • Considering all of these influences, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global average sea level will rise by 7.2 to 23.6 inches (18-59 cm or 0.18- 0.59m) by 2100 (see Figure 1) relative to 19801999 under a range of scenarios. Precipitation Hurricance PRedictions • Storm Changes • Mid-latitude storm tracks are projected to shift toward the poles, with increased intensity in some areas but reduced frequency. Tropical storms and hurricanes are likely to become more intense, produce stronger peak winds, and produce increased rainfall over some areas due to warming sea surface temperatures (which can energize these storms) (IPCC, 2007). The relationship between sea surface temperatures and the frequency of tropical storms is less clear. There is currently no scientific consensus on how future climate change is likely to affect the frequency of tropical storms in any part of the world where they occur. (WMO, 2006) Ocean Acidification • Figure 1: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (a) global ocean pH (b) and the surface saturation state of aragonite(c) for IPCC emission scenarios (plausible CO2 emission scenarios that vary based on different assumptions for global energy use and socioeconomic changes) for 2000-2100. The dashed line represents the 100 percent line separating over- and under-saturated regions. The Southern Ocean could be aragonite under-saturated by about 2050 and this could make it difficult or impossible for aragonitedependent corals and other marine calcifiers to form shells. Source: IPCC, 2007b Greenhouse gas predictions • Reference: (1) SGM Energy Modeling Forum EMF-21 Projections, Energy Journal Special Issue, in press, reference case CO2 projections. (2) Non-CO2 emissions are from EPA's Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990- Temperature Stabilization • 2F rise is inevitable, 5F at maximum • To keep the rise to only 2 – 5 F CO2 emissions must be cut by 70% from the 1990 levels by 2050 • Coal and US make this unachievable target • 5.4 degrees is more realistic and possible Current Increase • 0.68C- .74C for 2005 IPCC • Key is to slow rate of increase Temperature Rise Effects of Biodiversity • Lowest Degree Inevitable – 1.4 to 3F – 18% of species committed to extinction • Midrange Predictions – 3.2 to 3.6F – 25% of Species will become extinct • Greater than 3.6F – 33% -50% of species will become extinct We can save 2 out of 5 species Prediction variables The amount and speed of future climate change will ultimately depend on: • Whether greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations increase, stay the same or decrease. • How strongly features of the climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation and sea level) respond to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. • How much the climate varies as a result of natural influences (e.g. from volcanic activity and changes in the sun ’s intensity) and its internal variability (referring to random changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans). Mitigation Global Warming Wedges Options for Mitigation • • • • • • • • • CO2 emissions cap Increase renewable energy Remove Fossil Fuel Subsidies Encourage the development of safe nuclear power Stop deforestation and plant trees Tighten energy conservation rules Reduce the amount of fossil fuels used Sequester CO2 Slow the growth of the human population Clean Coal - Not YET Carbon Sequestration Solar Power Ronald McDonald House Austin Leeds Platinum Certified Wind Power Kyoto Protocol Participation Map 2005 Making the Connection = What are you doing about global warming? ? What can you do? • Educate Yourself • Spread knowledge • Vote with your dollar • Vote for you elected officials • Bike • Be a good citizen If we do not change direction, we will end up where we are heading.