Download Global Climate Change

Global Climate Change
Climate Change Exhibit at AMNH
Our Atmosphere
Nitrogen 78.094%
Oxygen 20.946%
Argon 0.934%
Carbon Dioxide 0.038%
Avg Water Vapor >1%
Other 0.002%
Outline: Global Climate Change
• Weather and Climate
• Historical Perspective
• The Greenhouse Effect and the Greenhouse
Gases
• Driving Forces of Climate Change
• Effects of Climate Change
• Temperature Estimates
• Mitigation
Weather and Climate
Earth’s balanced budget
Weather
Generation
U.S. Climate
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/mpg/169068main_temp_anom_w_date_320x240.mpg
North American Weather
http://www.myfoxaustin.com/myfox/pages/Weather;jsessionid=B284C4931E6B746
81A850D0FBC3739D2?pageId=9.1
Historical Perspective
Historical Climate Change
Mass Extinctions
Clues from
Austin’s
Geology
http://www.utexas.edu/tmm
The Texas Memorial Museum/
Cretaceous – Tertiary
K/T Extinction
Marine Regression
Extraterrestrial Impact
Volcanism
K/T EXTINCTION
Chixalub Crater
Geologic
Time Scale
and
Extinctions
Climate Data
Historical Climate Change
Ice Cores
Ice Core
Tree Rings
Dendocronology
Annual Average Global Surface
Temperature Anomalies 1880-2016
Historical Records
1000 years to present
Climatic records from 1880
The GreenHouse Effect
The GreenHouse Gases
The Greenhouse Effect
The Greenhouse Effect
The Greenhouse Effect
The Greenhouse Gases
(Halocarbons)
Greenhouse Gases
Water Vapor
Greenhouse Gas Sources
CO2-Carbon Dioxide
Fossil Fuel
Coal
Gas
Forest Burning
Cement Manufacture
Removal of Forest
reduces carbon sink
Global Fossil Fuel Emmissions
CO2-Carbon Dioxide
CO2-Carbon Dioxide
CH4 - Methane
CH4 - Methane
http://www.methanetomarkets.org/partners/country/usa.htm
Methane Hydrate
NO2
NO2
Ozone
• In the stratosphere,
ozone forms the
ozone shield.
• In the troposphere,
ozone is a
greenhouse gas
Ozone
Smog
New York, New York
The hole in the Ozone
Halocarbons (Chloroflourocarbons)
Styrofoam
Greenhouse Gas Sources
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
GAS
Pre-1750
concentr
ation1
Current tropospheric
concentration2
GWP (100-yr time
horizon)3
Atmospheric
lifetime
(years)4
Increased radiative forcing (W/m2)5
Concentrations in parts per million (ppm)
2806,7,8
377.37
1
variable4
1.66
7308/6888
1847>9/17309
23
124
0.5
2708,10
3199/3189
296
1144
0.16
25
344
n.a.4
hours-days
0.354,5
CFC-11
(trichlorofluoromethane)
(CCl3F)</< td>
zero
2539/2509
4,600
45
CFC-12
(dichlorodifluoromethane
) (CCl2F2)
zero
5459/5429
10,600
100
Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)
zero
939/929
1,800
35
Methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3)
zero
239/229
140
4.8
HCFC-22
(chlorodifluoromethane)
(CHClF2)
zero
1749/1559
1700
11.9
HFC-23 (fluoroform) (CHF3)
zero
1410
12,000
260
Perfluoroethane (C2F6)
zero
310
11,900
10,000
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
zero
5.2211
22,200
3,200
0.0025
Trifluoromethyl sulfur
pentafluoride (SF5CF3)
zero
0.1212
~ 18,000
~ 3,200 (?)
< 0.00015
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Concentrations in parts per billion (ppb)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Tropospheric ozone (O3)
Concentrations in parts per trillion (ppt)
0.34 for all halocarbons collectively,
including many not listed here.
Climate Drivers
***Sources of Climate Change***
or
What causes global warming?
Climate Drivers
• Milankovich Cycles
• Ocean Convection
• Solar Variability
• Volcanic Emissions and Global Dimming
• Anthropogenic Sources
Milankovitch Cycles
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLAYRdSnRSI
Ocean Conveyor Belt
Solar Variability
Volcanoes
Volcano CO2 vs Anthropogenic
CO2
1. Ratio of heavy to light carbon indicates a
fossil fuel sources
2. Ratio of Oxygen to Nitrogen has decreased
indication oxygen is combining with carbon
3. Carbon 13 is increasing relative to Carbon
14 indicating that “dead” carbon is being
added to the atmosphere
Global Dimming
Aerosols
Planetary Albedo
Carbon Sinks
Warming vs Cooling
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Warming Effects
Greenhouse Gases
Tropospheric Ozone
Decreased planetary
albedo
Deforestation
Volcanic Eruptions (CO2
emissions)
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Cooling Effects
Global Dimming
Volcanic Eruptions (ash
in stratosphere)
Anthropologic Aerosols
Increased Planetary
Albedo
Stratospheric Ozone
Carbon Sinks
Historical Records
1000 years to present
Temperature
Increase
1000 years
Temperature Change
last 1000 years
Temperatures
within the last
100 years
The Effects of Climate Change
Polar Bear SOS!
• http://www.nwf.org/pola
rbear/
• http://www.youtube.com
/watch?v=oZlLecC5eNo
• http://www.youtube.com
/watch?v=ua8jF1ZPaAU&
feature=related
The Effects of climate change
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shifts weather patterns causing droughts and flooding
increases hazards such as storms, landslides, droughts and wildfires
Changes rainfall patterns and soil moisture
Alters agricultural zones
Melts mountain snowcaps
Melts glaciers and ice sheets
Melts permafrost
raises sea level
Leads to the extinction of species
desertification
more wildfires
Loss of seasonal sync
Loss of civilization sync
Increases plant, animal and disease range
Alters and destroys habitat
Acidifies the Ocean
Bleaches the coral
Reduces snowpack that provide cities with water
Arctic
• 3-26-08 Arctic Ice Sheet Collapse http://youtube.com/watch?v=r2ceKlzF6Ak
Antarctica
• Melting Sea Ice and its effect on seabirds, walruses
and polar bears
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5-F30YFEv8&NR=1
Greenland
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KF2l9A9AqHs
Glacial Retreat
The Glaciers are Melting
1875 photo courtesy H. Slupetzky/University of
Salzburg
Glacial Retreat
Portage Glacier 2002
Portage Glacier 1950 (historic photo from the Lulu Fairbanks Collection,
University of Alaska Library, used by permission.)
Glacial Retreat
Snowpack
Reduction
Temperature Extremes
European Heat Wave 2003
Loss of Seasonal Sync
http://www.nationalwildlife.org/nationalwildlife/arti
cle.cfm?issueID=63&articleID=1053
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Wild Life and Climate Change
1. BLACK GUILLEMOTS
On Alaska's Cooper Island, populations of black guillemots are declining as sea ice recedes, taking with it the birds' primary prey: Arctic cod, which live under
the ice. For more information visit: www.cooperisland.org
2. SOCKEYE SALMON
Extremely high water temperatures accompanied by drought-induced low water flows led to the 1998 deaths of tens of thousands of sockeye salmon in
British Columbia-a preview of what's to come, say some scientists.
3. SOOTY SHEARWATERS
Between 1987 and 1994, the number of sooty shearwaters off the U.S. west coast decreased by 90 percent. Some scientists attribute the decline to changes
in ocean temperatures and currents caused by global warming.
4. SNAILS, SEA STARS AND OTHER INTERTIDAL CREATURES
In Monterey Bay, California, the ranges of intertidal invertebrates such as limpets and snails have been shifting northward for the past six decades as sea and
air temperatures rise.
5. EDITH'S CHECKERSPOT BUTTERFLIES
The distribution of Edith's checkerspot butterfly, which extends from the west coast of southern Canada through northern Mexico, is contracting. In the
southern portion of the butterfly's range, 80 percent of all populations have become extinct.
6. MEXICAN JAYS
In southern Arizona, the breeding season of the Mexican jay advanced by 10 days between 1971 and 1998. The change correlates with spring monthly
temperatures, which rose 4.5 degrees F during the same period.
7. AMERICAN ROBINS
In Colorado, robins are migrating from low to high elevations where they breed two weeks earlier than they did in the late 1970s. Many birds now arrive
before snow melts.
8. AMERICAN PIKAS
Scientists say warming in the U.S. Great Basin has contributed to the extinction of 7 of 25 populations of American pika. Sensitive to temperature changes,
these high-elevation mammals have nowhere to move.
9. POLAR BEARS
On Canada's Hudson Bay, early melting sea ice has decreased the amount of time polar bears have to hunt seals, their primary prey. As a result, bears today
weigh less and give birth to fewer cubs than they did 20 years ago.
10. RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS
These migratory birds are arriving at their breeding grounds in northern Michigan 21 days earlier than they did in 1960.
11. AMERICAN LOBSTERS
In western Long Island Sound, large numbers of lobsters died mysteriously during September 1999. Some researchers suggest that high water temperatures
wiped out the crustaceans, which were living at the southern limit of the species' range.
12. PROTHONOTARY WARBLERS
For nearly two decades, prothonotary warblers have been returning to breeding grounds in Virginia from wintering grounds in South America and the
Caribbean a day earlier each year as springtime temperatures rise. 13. AMERICAN ALLIGATORS
The distribution of the American alligator, which ranges from the Carolinas south to Florida and west to Texas, appears to be shifting northward in some
regions. Rising sea level may also force the freshwater reptiles inland, where they would encounter more development.
14. LOGGERHEAD SEA TURTLES
Off the Atlantic coast of Florida, threatened loggerhead sea turtles are coming ashore to nest 10 days earlier than they did in 1989. During the same period,
offshore ocean temperatures have increased 1.5 degrees F.
15. CORAL REEFS
Off the shores of many Caribbean islands, higher water temperatures are causing corals to expel their symbiotic algae-or bleach-which can lead to coral
death and damage to entire reef ecosystems.
16. GOLDEN TOADS
In the first species extinction attributed to global warming, the amphibians have disappeared from their only known habitat, Costa Rica's Monteverde Cloud
Forest.
Loss of Civilization Sync
Darfur, Sudan
Climate Change and World Poverty
Agricultural Effects
• Change in soil moisture
• Change in rainfall pattern
• Change in Temperature
Rice Field
Being Flooded
Terrestrial Habitat Loss
• The Golden
Toad went
extinct in
1989
The Cloud Forest
Habitat
Expansion
• Malaria and Dengue Fever
carrying Mosquitoes
Increasing Wildfires
• Longer Summer growing season
• Longer Fire Season from less
snow cover
Altered
Weather
Patterns
• Rainfall pattern change
Altered Weather Patterns
• Rainfall pattern change
• Drought and Desert
Texas Drought Monitor
Sea Level Rise
• EPA 7.2 to 23.6 inches or 0.6 - 2ft
• Other sources range to 6 feet
• Most likely 3-4 feet
• Sea level rise will vary geographically
Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise
Lousiana Ocean Rise
Texas Sea
Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Effects
• Pacific Islands
• Alaskan Islands
Ocean Warming
Tropical Storms
Katrina
Hurricane Frequency
Marine Habitat Loss:
Coral Bleaching
Bleached Area of the Great Barrier Reef
The Atmosphere Shifts
The Atmosphere Shifts
The Surface Heats Up
Ocean layers warm
The Atmosphere Shifts
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Recent research shows that human activities have lifted the boundary of Earth's lower
atmosphere. Known as the troposphere (from the Greek tropos, which means "turning"), this
lowest layer of the atmosphere contains Earth's weather. The stable layer above is called the
stratosphere. The boundary that separates the two layers, the tropopause, is as high as nine
miles above the equator and as low as five miles above the poles. In an astounding
development, a 2003 study showed that this tropopause has shifted upward over the last two
decades by more than 900 feet. [10] The rising tropopause marks another human fingerprint
on Earth's climate.
In their search for clues, scientists compared two natural drivers of climate (solar changes
and volcanic aerosols) and three human drivers of climate (heat-trapping emissions, aerosol
pollution, and ozone depletion), altering these one at a time in their sophisticated models.
Changes in the sun during the twentieth century have warmed both the troposphere and
stratosphere. But human activities have increased heat-trapping emissions and decreased
stratospheric ozone. This has led to the troposphere warming more because the increase in
heat-trapping emissions is trapping more of Earth's outgoing heat. The stratosphere has
cooled more because there is less ozone to absorb incoming sunlight to heat up the
stratosphere. Both these effects combine to shift the boundary upward. Over the period
1979-1999, a study shows that human-induced changes in heat-trapping emissions and
ozone account for more than 80 percent of the rise in tropopause height. [10] This is yet
another example of how science detectives are quantifying the impact of human activities on
climate.
The Atmosphere Shifts
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Two natural drivers of climate
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solar changes and volcanic aerosols
Three human drivers of climate
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heat-trapping emissions, aerosol pollution, and ozone depletion
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The Atmosphere shift has led to the troposphere warming more because the increase in heattrapping emissions is trapping more of Earth's outgoing heat.
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The stratosphere has cooled more because there is less ozone to absorb incoming sunlight to
heat up the stratosphere.
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Both these effects combine to shift the boundary upward.
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Over the period 1979-1999, a study shows that human-induced changes in heat-trapping
emissions and ozone account for more than 80 percent of the rise in tropopause height.
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Recent research shows that human activities have lifted the boundary of Earth's lower
atmosphere. The boundary that separates the two layers, the tropopause, is as high as nine
miles above the equator and as low as five miles above the poles. In an astounding
development, a 2003 study showed that this tropopause has shifted upward over the last two
decades by more than 900 feet.
End of
***Effects of Climate Change***
Temperature Estimates
Temperature Estimates
Figure 2: Projected future regional patterns of warming based on three emissions scenarios (low,
medium, and high growth). Source: NASA Earth Observatory, based on IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (2007)
Temperature PRedictions
Temperature projections to the year 2100, based on a range of emission scenarios and global
climate models. Scenarios that assume the highest growth in greenhouse gas emissions provide
the estimates in the top end of the temperature range. The orange line (“constant CO2”) projects
global temperatures with greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized at year 2000 levels. Source:
NASA Earth Observatory, based on IPCC Fourth Assessment
Temperature Prediction
EPA’s climate website
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
• Temperature Change Projections
• Due to uncertainties about future emissions and concentrations of greenhouse
gases, their net warming effect in the atmosphere, and the response of the climate
system, estimates of future temperature change are uncertain. With these caveats in
mind, the IPCC made the following projections of future warming (IPCC, 2007):
• The average surface temperature of the Earth is likely to increase by 2 to 11.5°F (1.16.4°C) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980-1990, with a best estimate of
3.2 to 7.2°F (1.8-4.0°C) (see Figure 1). The average rate of warming over each
inhabited continent is very likely to be at least twice as large as that experienced
during the 20th century.
• Warming will not be evenly distributed around the globe (see Figure 2):
– Land areas will warm more than oceans in part due to water's ability to store heat.
– High latitudes will warm more than low latitudes in part due to positive feedback effects
from melting ice (as discussed above).
– Most of North America; all of Africa, Europe, northern and central Asia; and most of Central
and South America are likely to warm more than the global average. Projections suggest
that the warming will be close to the global average in south Asia, Australia and New
Zealand, and southern South America.
• The warming will differ by season, with winters warming more than summers in most
areas.
• For additional explanatory information about some of the projected spatial and
seasonal differences in warming, see the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Sea Level Changes
Past and projected global average sea level. The gray shaded area shows the estimates of sea level change from 1800 to 1870 when measurements are not
available. The red line is a reconstruction of sea level change measured by tide gauges with the surrounding shaded area depicting the uncertainty. The
green line shows sea level change as measured by satellite. The purple shaded area represents the range of model projections for a medium growth
emissions scenario (IPCC SRES A1B). For reference 100mm is about 4 inches. Source: IPCC (2007
Sea Level Rise
• Considering all of these influences, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) estimates that the global
average sea level will rise by 7.2 to 23.6
inches (18-59 cm or 0.18- 0.59m) by
2100 (see Figure 1) relative to 19801999 under a range of scenarios.
Precipitation
Hurricance PRedictions
• Storm Changes
• Mid-latitude storm tracks are projected to shift toward the poles,
with increased intensity in some areas but reduced frequency.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are likely to become more
intense, produce stronger peak winds, and produce increased
rainfall over some areas due to warming sea surface
temperatures (which can energize these storms) (IPCC, 2007).
The relationship between sea surface temperatures and the
frequency of tropical storms is less clear. There is currently no
scientific consensus on how future climate change is likely to
affect the frequency of tropical storms in any part of the world
where they occur. (WMO, 2006)
Ocean Acidification
• Figure 1: Atmospheric CO2
concentrations (a) global ocean pH
(b) and the surface saturation state
of aragonite(c) for IPCC emission
scenarios (plausible CO2 emission
scenarios that vary based on
different assumptions for global
energy use and socioeconomic
changes) for 2000-2100. The
dashed line represents the 100
percent line separating over- and
under-saturated regions. The
Southern Ocean could be
aragonite under-saturated by
about 2050 and this could make it
difficult or impossible for aragonitedependent corals and other marine
calcifiers to form shells.
Source: IPCC, 2007b
Greenhouse gas predictions
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Reference: (1) SGM Energy Modeling Forum EMF-21 Projections, Energy Journal
Special Issue, in press, reference case CO2 projections. (2) Non-CO2 emissions are
from EPA's Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 1990-
Temperature Stabilization
• 2F rise is inevitable, 5F at maximum
• To keep the rise to only 2 – 5 F CO2
emissions must be cut by 70% from the
1990 levels by 2050
• Coal and US make this unachievable
target
• 5.4 degrees is more realistic and
possible
Current Increase
• 0.68C- .74C for 2005 IPCC
• Key is to slow rate of increase
Temperature Rise Effects of
Biodiversity
• Lowest Degree Inevitable
– 1.4 to 3F
– 18% of species committed to extinction
• Midrange Predictions
– 3.2 to 3.6F
– 25% of Species will become extinct
• Greater than 3.6F
– 33% -50% of species will become extinct
We can save 2 out of 5 species
Prediction variables
The amount and speed of future climate change will
ultimately depend on:
• Whether greenhouse gases and aerosol
concentrations increase, stay the same or decrease.
• How strongly features of the climate (e.g.
temperature, precipitation and sea level) respond to
changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol
concentrations.
• How much the climate varies as a result of natural
influences (e.g. from volcanic activity and changes in
the sun ’s intensity) and its internal variability
(referring to random changes in the circulation of the
atmosphere and oceans).
Mitigation
Global Warming Wedges
Options for Mitigation
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CO2 emissions cap
Increase renewable energy
Remove Fossil Fuel Subsidies
Encourage the development of safe nuclear power
Stop deforestation and plant trees
Tighten energy conservation rules
Reduce the amount of fossil fuels used
Sequester CO2
Slow the growth of the human population
Clean Coal - Not YET
Carbon Sequestration
Solar Power
Ronald McDonald House Austin
Leeds Platinum Certified
Wind Power
Kyoto Protocol
Participation Map 2005
Making the Connection
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What are you doing about
global warming?
?
What can you do?
• Educate Yourself
• Spread knowledge
• Vote with your dollar
• Vote for you elected officials
• Bike
• Be a good citizen
If we do not change direction, we will end up where we are
heading.