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ICRC CORDEX Stockholm May 2016
EURO-CORDEX-LUC:
A new initiative on coordinated regional
land use change experiments
Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Oliver Branch, Rita M Cardoso, Erika Coppola,
Edouard Davin, Rowan Fealy, Borbála Gálos, Filippo Giorgi, Miguel Angel Gaertner,
Klaus Goergen, Andreas Haensler, Nils Hempelmann, Daniela Jacob, Eleni Katragkou, Klaus Keuler,
Enrique Sánchez, Sebastian Knist, Juliane Otto, Andrew Pitman, Swantje Preuschmann,
Pedro MM Soares, Gustav Strandberg, Claas Teichmann, Robert Vautard
& Partners from the FPS LUCAS consortium:
Marcus Breil, Calum Brown, Xuefeng Cui, Richard Fuchs, Irena Hajnsek, Tomas Halenka,
Jan Erik Haugen, Martin Herold, Andreas Huth, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Kai Radtke, Gerd Schädler,
Clemens Simmer, Merja Tölle
www.lucidproject.org.au
www.cordex.org
www.euro-cordex.net
Structure
Part I: Land Use Change in the Regional Earth System
Schematic overview
Land use change and climate interactions in Europe: status of knowledge
Some major challenges for modelling
Part II: LUCAS - Land Use & Climate Across Scales a EURO-CORDEX & LUCID initiative
LUCAS Framework: Integration of models and data across scales
Towards Regional Climate System Models
Science questions and coordinated experiments
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Land use in Europe
Large fragmentation of
land use and smallscale land use changes
Direct physical impacts
of land use change also
depend on conditions in
atmosphere and soil
radiative effects:
e.g. clouds
evaporative effects:
available energy and soil
moisture
strong variation during
seasons and across
Europe
Source: Pixabay, CC0 Public Domain
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Land use change in the Earth System
Atmosphere
Climate System
Local to
Biophysical
regional
impacts
climate change
Vegetation
Natural
land cover
change
Global to local
climate change
Energy
Water
Momentum
Substances
Change of
land surface
properties
Land Ecosystems
Emissions
Human Systems
Soil
Ecosystem Services
© D.Rechid, GERICS
Biochemical
impacts
Mitigation
Adaptation
Land use policies
Land use change LUC
Anthropogenic land cover change
Land managment change
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Climate System
Biophysical
impacts
Energy
Water
Momentum
Substances
Change of
land surface
properties
Land Ecosystems
Soil
Vegetation
Atmosphere
Land use change in the Earth System: biophysical impacts
Land use change LUC
e.g. Afforestation / Reforestation
© D.Rechid, GERICS
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Regional Climate System
Example: Simplified scheme of physical (first order) impacts on surface temperature T
Biophysical
impacts
T
Change of
land
surface
properties
Albedo
Land Ecosystems
6
© D.Rechid, GERICS
Net surface
shortwave
radiation
Land use change LUC
D. Rechid, Climate /Reforestation
Change, 7 Nov 2014
e.g. Afforestation
© Climate Service Center Germany
Regional Climate System
Example: Simplified scheme of physical (first order) impacts on surface temperature T
Biophysical
impacts
T
Change of
land
surface
properties
Albedo
Land Ecosystems
Net surface
shortwave
radiation
T
Vegetation cover
Rooting depth
Evapotranspiration
Latent heat flux
Bowen ratio
7
© D.Rechid, GERICS
Land use change LUC
D. Rechid, Climate /Reforestation
Change, 7 Nov 2014
e.g. Afforestation
© Climate Service Center Germany
Regional Climate System
Example: Simplified scheme of physical (first order) impacts on surface temperature T
Biophysical
impacts
T
Change of
land
surface
properties
Albedo
Land Ecosystems
Net surface
shortwave
radiation
T
Vegetation cover
Rooting depth
© D.Rechid, GERICS
Roughness
Evapotranspiration
Turbulence
Latent heat flux
Sensible heat
flux
Bowen ratio
8
T
Land use change LUC
D. Rechid, Climate /Reforestation
Change, 7 Nov 2014
e.g. Afforestation
© Climate Service Center Germany
Latent heat flux
Regional Climate System
Example: Simplified scheme of physical (first order) impacts on surface temperature T
Biophysical
impacts
Overall warming or cooling?
depends on availability of energy and water
T
Change of
land
surface
properties
Albedo
Land Ecosystems
Net surface
shortwave
radiation
T
Vegetation cover
Rooting depth
© D.Rechid, GERICS
Roughness
Evapotranspiration
Turbulence
Latent heat flux
Sensible heat
flux
Bowen ratio
9
T
Land use change LUC
D. Rechid, Climate /Reforestation
Change, 7 Nov 2014
e.g. Afforestation
© Climate Service Center Germany
Latent heat flux
Example study Land Mangement Change:
Impact of cropland albedo management (by Davin et al., 2014)
Crop fraction
Change in 99th percentile of Tmax
  Direct biophysical effects of "no tillage" vs "tillage" increases surface
albedo of croplands in summer: the resulting cooling effect is amplified
during hot extremes
10
Source: Davin, E. L., S. I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, and T. Wang (2014), Preferential cooling of hot
D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
extremes from cropland albedo management,
Proc.
Natl.
Acad. Sci. U.S.A., doi:10.1073/pnas.1317323111.
© Climate Service
Center
Germany
LUCID Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts:
First coordinated LUC experiments with an ensemble of seven global
models
Change in 2m-temperature due to historical land cover change / due to GHG increase
present day vs pre-industrial LCC
SST/GHG
  Statistically significant
changes of near surface
temperature in regions
with land cover changes
+ 2mT
LUC
- 2mT
11
  In most temperate
regions with similar
magnitude as changes
due to increased GHG/
SST, generally of
opposite sign
Source: de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., et al. (2012) : Determining robust impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes on
Rechid, Climate
7 Nov
surface climate over North America andD.Eurasia;
ResultsChange,
from the
first2014
set of LUCID experiments. Journal of Climate,
©
Climate
Service
Center
Germany
25 : 3261-3281, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00338.1.
LUCID: land use implementation in GCM-LSMs
Same change in crop area provided to all models
But different
implementation
strategies
Changes in forest extent in North America (bars in %, numbers in 106 km2)
-1,82
-1,62
-1,26
-1,13
-0,99
-0,61
-0,56
Important
discrepancy
between models
3,36
3,04
2,53
2,26
1,93
1,74
1,65
6
2
Initial forest extent (in 1870) in North America (10 km )
12
de Noblet-Ducoudré et al. (2012)D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
© Climate Service Center Germany
Boisier et al. (2012)
LUCID: some lessons learned
Different implementation strategies:
explains ~1/3rd of
differences between
climatic responses at the
continental scale
13
de Noblet-Ducoudré et al. (2012)D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
© Climate Service Center Germany
Boisier et al. (2012)
Summary: some challenges
What is the magnitude of direct biophysical impacts of land use
changes on climate at regional to local scales in Europe?
•  consistent LUC implementation in the models is important
  base land use distribution in the RCMs on a common reference and impose
consistent LUC
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Summary: some challenges
What is the magnitude of direct biophysical impacts of land use
changes on climate at regional to local scales in Europe?
•  consistent LUC implementation in the models is important
  base land use distribution in the RCMs on a common reference and impose
consistent LUC
•  large spatial fragmentation of land use in Europe and LUC impacts are dominant on
local to regional scale
  need for very high resolution modelling and observations
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Summary: some challenges
What is the magnitude of direct biophysical impacts of land use
changes on climate at regional to local scales in Europe?
•  consistent LUC implementation in the models is important
  base land use distribution in the RCMs on a common reference and impose
consistent LUC
•  large spatial fragmentation of land use in Europe and LUC impacts are dominant on
local to regional scale
  need for very high resolution modelling and observations
•  In contrast to GHG forcing: LUC radiative forcing can also be negative, and spread in
GCM response to LUC forcing is larger - so far only single RCM LUC studies
  Fill the scientific gap of missing robust information on biophysical feedbacks of
LUC on regional climate
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Summary: some challenges
What is the magnitude of direct biophysical impacts of land use
changes on climate at regional to local scales in Europe?
•  consistent LUC implementation in the models is important
  base land use distribution in the RCMs on a common reference and impose
consistent LUC
•  large spatial fragmentation of land use in Europe and LUC impacts are dominant on
local to regional scale
  need for very high resolution modelling and observations
•  In contrast to GHG forcing: LUC radiative forcing can also be negative, and spread in
GCM response to LUC forcing is larger - so far only single RCM LUC studies
  Fill the scientific gap of missing robust information on biophysical feedbacks of
LUC on regional climate
  Consider land use changes in coordinated regional multi-model
simulations from continental to local scale
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Part II
LUCAS - Land Use & Climate Across Scales a EURO-CORDEX & LUCID initiative
proposed as Flagship Pilot Study to WCRP CORDEX
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS Framework
© D.Rechid, GERICS
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS: Science questions
Q1
How large is the contribution of LUC to detected past climate trends and changes
in variability in Europe?
Q2
What is the relative contribution of selected LUC to regional climate changes in
Europe under two different level of global warming?
Q3
How sensitive are the regional climate models to LUC and how is this interrelated
to the land-atmosphere coupling in different regions among the suite of models?
Q4
How strongly can local LUC attenuate negative impacts of climate change, e.g.
increased amplitude of extreme events in Europe?
Q5
What is the effect of spatial resolution on the magnitude and robustness of LUCinduced climate changes?
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS: RCMs - towards Regional Climate System Models
Global climate models / Earth system models
Atmospheric
variables
Regional Earth System
Regional
Climate System
RCMs
Atmosphere
Biosphere
Hydrosphere
Pedosphere
two-waycoupling
boundary conditions
© D.Rechid, GERICS
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS: RCMs - towards Regional Climate System Models
Global climate models / Earth system models
Atmospheric
variables
Regional Earth System
Regional
Climate System
RCMs
Atmosphere
Biosphere
Hydrosphere
Pedosphere
two-waycoupling
boundary conditions
Feedbacks
© D.Rechid, GERICS
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS: RCMs - towards Regional Climate System Models
Global climate models / Earth system models
Atmospheric
variables
Regional Earth System
COSMO-CLM 5.0
COSMO-CLM 5.0 / VEG3D
COSMO-CLM / CLM
Regional
Climate System
RCMs
Atmosphere
COSMO-CLM / CLM /
ParFlow (TerrSysMP)
RegCM4 / CLM4.5
RCA4 / HARMONIE-CLIM
Biosphere
REMO / LUCHS
Hydrosphere
REMO / iMOVE
PROMES / ORCHIDEE
Pedosphere
two-waycoupling
boundary conditions
Feedbacks
WRF / ORCHIDEE
WRF3.6
WRF3.7
© D.Rechid, GERICS
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS: Evaluation concept
© D.Rechid, GERICS
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Example: TERENO Terrestrial Environmental Observatory
MONITORING OF THE RUR CATCHMENT.
The development of techniques to map and understand patterns, and to use this to model and predict
the terrestrial system, requires a real counterpart for
analysis and testing. TR32 identified the Rur catchment (Fig. 1) as its central observation site because
Eifel/Lower Rhine Valley Observatory
Rur catchment site
Distinct land use gradient
Catchment-based measurements that
include:
•  flux towers
•  gauging stations
•  weather stations
•  meteorological X- and C-band radars
•  cosmic ray soil moisture probes
  multi-compartment & multi-scale
see also: http://teodoor.icg.kfa-juelich.de/overview/
observatories/ELRV_Observatory
25
FIG. 1A. Map depicts the Rur catchment including the position of monitoring devices like weather,
river gauging, EC, and cosmic-ray stations, as well as a polarimetric weather radar coverage inset for
TR32 [X-band radar BoXPol at Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (MIUB)]; TERENO
[X-band radar JuXPol at Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH (FZJ)]; and the surrounding C-band radars
of DWD, including the nonpolarimetric Rainscanner at Wüstebach and
instrumentation.
D. other
Rechid,
ClimateActive
Change, 7 Nov 2014
and remnants of open-pit mines are delineated by dashed red lines. The wind rose inset at the top
©
Climate
Service
Center Germany
is based on hourly observations of DWD at the weather station Aachen (about 200 m MSL) at the
Source: Simmer, C. et al. (2015), Monitoring and Modeling the Terrestrial System from Pores to Catchments: The
Transregional Collaborative Research Center on Patterns in the Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere System, Bull. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 96(10), 1765–1787, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00134.1.
Model experiments
LUCAS Phase I : Idealised experiments on continental
scale for past and future
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS: Experiments for the past - ERA-Interim
© D.Rechid, GERICS
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS: Experiments for the future - GCM /SSPs*RCPs
© D.Rechid, GERICS
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
New generation “Land Use Harmonization” LUH2
in preparation to CMIP6 by LUMIP (by Hurrt et al.)
  global grid 0.25 x 0.25 degree
spatial resolution
  850-2100 annual land-use states,
transitions, and new: agriculture
management layers
  12 possible land-use classes,
> 100 possible transitions per
grid cell per year, including crop
rotations
  Agriculture management layers
including irrigation, fertilizer, and
biofuel management
29
LUH2 v1.0h release (April 29, 2016):
land-use
forcing dataset 850 - 2015
D. Rechid,historical
Climate Change,
7 Nov 2014
http://luh.umd.edu/data.shtml © Climate Service Center Germany
Provision of Land Use Forcing for CMIP6 from LUMIP
Land units in each grid cell
Non forested
Primary land
Forested Primary Land
Managed Pasture land
Secondary land
forested
Urban
land
Non forested
Secondary
land
C3
Annual Crop
C3
Perennial
Crop
© de Noblet-Ducoudré [pers. communication]
30
D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
http://luh.umd.edu/data.shtml
© Climate Service Center Germany
Rangeland
C4
Annual
crop
C3
Nitrogen
fixing
C4
crop
Perennial
crop
Next steps
Consistent integration of land use change into the RCMs:
•  learn from LUMIP protocol (global Land Use Model Intercomparison Project)
•  use a common reference vegetation distribution in the regional models
•  consistent translation of land use forcing: clear allocation methods of new land use
on existing land use types
  clear land use implementation protocol
Detailed definition of idealised experiments on continental scale (phase I)
  concrete simulation protocol
  EURO-CORDEX-LUC workshop on Thursday, 5 to 7 pm, U28
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Outlook
LUCAS Phase II : High resolution experiments in pilot
regions for past and future
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Pilot regions and nests for high resolution modelling
EURO-CORDEX orography
Criteria for Pilot Regions:
[m]
Distinct pattern of landatmosphere coupling strength
(e.g. Knist et al., in preparation)
x
Regions with major rapid
historic land use transitions
(e.g. Munteanu et al., 2014)
Availability of high-quality
observational data
© GERICS
x
TERENO Terrestrial Environmental Observatory:
Eifel/Lower Rhine Valley Observatory
(e.g. Szilágyi & Kovács, 2010; Zacharias
et al., 2011; Simmer et al., 2015)
Example Pilot regions / Pilot region nests
(not fixed so far)
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
LUCAS Phase II : High resolution experiments
Global Re-analyses Data
Atmospheric
variables
Regional Earth System
Regional
Climate System
ERA-Interim
RCMs 25 km
Continental
scale
RCMs 10 km
Pilot regions
Pilot region nest
RCMs 3 km
GHG & aerosol
emissions /
concentrations
© D.Rechid, GERICS
Ecosystems
Natural land cover
dynamics
Human Systems
Land use change
Observations
& Models
Past reconstructions
Models
& Scenarios
Future
projections
Emissions
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Anthropogenic
land cover /
change & land
managment
at 1 km:
HILDA
(Fuchs et al. 2013)
Thank you for your attention!
Do you have questions, comments, suggestions?
Would you like to contribute?
Please contact: [email protected]
Source: Pixabay, CC0 Public Domain
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Expected impacts
  Fill the scientific gap of missing robust information on biophysical
feedbacks of LUC on regional climate
I1
  Identify potential biases that arise from missing land use dynamics in
regional climate change projections and help improve the simulated
impacts
I2
  Support decisions on land management by revealing the potential of
LUC to attenuate negative impacts of global warming
I3
  Better constrain further strategic development of coupled landatmosphere and regional earth system models
I4
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
High-resolution reconstructions of historic land use for
Europe between 1900-2010
HILDA:
HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment
EU27 + Switzerland
1 km resolution
(1950-2010 15,46 % of land area
affected by land use changes)
  Areas of major urbanisation and
afforestation/reforestation for
1950-2010
37
Source: Fuchs R., M. Herold, P.H. Verburg, J.G.P.W. Clevers (2013): A high-resolution and harmonized model approach
Rechid,
ClimateinChange,
Nov 2014
for reconstructing and analysing historicD.land
changes
Europe,7 Biogeosciences,
10(3), 1543–1559, doi:10.5194/
©
Climate
Service
Center
Germany
bg-10-1543-2013
Example study Land Cover Change:
Potential re-/afforestation in Europe (by Galos et al. 2012, 2013)
Simulation domain with
the present forest cover
in the regional model
Horizontal resolution:
0.22°
Increase of forest cover
with potential
afforestation compared
to present forested area
D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
© Climate Service Center Germany
Example study Land Cover Change:
Potential re-/afforestation in Europe (by Galos et al. 2012, 2013)
Surface temperature change JJA
Precipitation change JJA
39
driven by GHG concentration change
D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 driven
Nov 2014by re-/afforestation
© Climate Service Center Germany
2071-2090
2071-2090 vs. 1961-1990
Different LUC Implementation Strategies:
Where do/did croplands/pastures come from?
Forests
Croplands
Initial state: 50%
grass, 50% forests
Grass
Forests
Final imposed
state: 50% crops
implemented
Crops
Natural
Grasslands
Forests
Crops
40
© de Noblet-Ducoudré
Grass
D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
© Climate Service Center Germany
Grass
Crops
Forests
Agent-based land use modelling
Explore the development of European land system under
different climatic and socio-economic scenarios (e.g. SSP-RCP
combinations), defining:
•  Climate impacts (land productivity)
•  Societal demand levels for range of ecosystem goods
and services
•  Institutional & political interventions
•  Adaptation options and individual/social behaviour
© C. Brown, University of Edinburgh
Model based on decision-making of individual land managers
and institutional actors; includes economic and non-economic
factors & cross-sectoral competition
Starting from 2010 baseline land cover, simulate changes in:
•  Broad land use categories based on production type
and intensity– tailored to requirements of climate
models
•  Ecosystem service supply
•  Institutional/political strategies
41
D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
© Climate
Service Center Germany
Calum Brown; University of Edinburgh, personal
communication
CRAFTY – EU
Competition for Resources
between Agent Functional
TYpes (here: baseline
simulation of some broad
land use categories)
Outputs available at
flexible spatial and
temporal scales; default
annual, 1km2