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GRADE 10 SCIENCE A Simulation of Global Warming Curriculum Expectations SNC 2D Earth and Space Science: Weather Dynamics Overall Expectations ESV.01D Demonstrate an understanding of the factors affecting the fundamental processes of weather systems. Understanding Basic Concepts ES1.02D Describe and explain heat transfer within the water cycle and how the hydrosphere and atmosphere act as heat sinks. ES1.03D Describe and explain heat transfer in the hydrosphere and atmosphere and its effects on air and water currents. Developing Skills of Inquiry and Communication ES2.01D Through investigations and applications of basic concepts, formulate scientific questions about weather-related phenomena, problems and issues (e.g., What is the effect of heat energy transfer within the hydrosphere?). ES2.03D Through investigations and applications of basic concepts, select and integrate information from various sources, including electronic and print resources, to answer the questions chosen. ES2.04D Through investigations and applications of basic concepts, analyse data and information and evaluate evidence and sources of information, identifying flaws such as errors and bias (e.g., explain possible sources of error when interpreting a satellite picture used for predicting weather). ES2.06D Investigate factors which affect the development, severity and movement of global and local weather systems (e.g., the ozone layer, El Niño, bodies of water, glaciers, smog, rain forests). Relating Science to Technology, Society and the Environment ES3.01D Explain the role of weather dynamics in environmental phenomena and consider the consequences to humans of changes in weather (e.g., the role of weather in air pollution, acid rain, global warming and smog; the fact that smog aggravates asthma). A SIMULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING page 1 SNC 2P Earth and Space Science: Weather Dynamics Overall Expectations ESV.01P Demonstrate an understanding of the factors affecting the fundamental processes of weather systems. Understanding Basic Concepts ES1.02P Describe and explain heat transfer within the water cycle and how the hydrosphere and atmosphere act as heat sinks. ES1.03P Describe and illustrate the factors affecting heat transfer within the water cycle in the atmosphere (e.g., temperature, pressure, humidity, winds). ES1.04P Observe, through experiment and simulation, and describe (a) the effects of atmospheric pressure, (b) the pattern of air movement in convection, (c) the phenomenon of inversion, (d) the greenhouse effect, and (e) heat transfer through radiation (e.g., (a) the reduction of the boiling point of water with reduced pressure or altitude; (c) the formation of dew or frost early in the morning following a clear, calm night; (e) the use of dark solar panels for effective heat transfer). Developing Skills of Inquiry and Communication ES2.02P Through investigations and applications of basic concepts, formulate scientific questions about these factors and outline experimental procedures for finding answers. ES2.03P Through investigations and applications of basic concepts, demonstrate the skills required to plan and conduct a weatherrelated inquiry, and collect data using appropriate instruments and techniques safely and accurately (e.g., record temperatures and atmospheric pressure; interpret weather maps and satellite photographs). ES2.06P Through investigations and applications of basic concepts, communicate the results of the investigation using a variety of oral, written and graphic formats (e.g., diagrams, group presentations to the class, flow charts, simulations, graphs). A SIMULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING page 2 Introduction The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during the last hundred years. See Figure #1. This lab provides an introduction to the greenhouse effect and allows students to directly measure the effect of increased carbon dioxide. Trends in CO2 Concentrations CO2 Concentrations (Parts per million by volume) 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year Figure #1: Concentration of carbon dioxide (ppm) in the atmosphere over time. Purpose To observe the effect that carbon dioxide has on air temperature. Hypothesis Predict which treatment will result in the highest temperature. Materials For every group of four students: • • • • • • three small thermometers or temperature probes two jars or other see-through containers one clock or watch carbon dioxide (can be made from the reaction between sodium bicarbonate and hydrochloric acid) modeling clay or putty sun lamp or access to a sunny area to perform the experiment A SIMULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING page 3 Methods Teacher’s Note: A class supply of carbon dioxide can be generated through the reaction of sodium bicarbonate and hydrochloric acid. 1. Collect all material needed. 2. Place thermometers on the counter under the sun lamp or in a sunny spot. Record the initial temperature after the thermometers stop moving. 3. Place two of the thermometers or temperature probes into two jars, one with ambient air and the other with CO2, taking care that they do not cast a shadow over the third thermometer. See Figure #2. Be sure that all thermometers are at equal distance from the light source. 4. Ensure that the two jars are air tight by sealing the top of the jars with the modeling clay or putty. 5. Record the temperature of all thermometers every 30 seconds for the next 20 minutes or until the temperatures have stabilized. Figure #2: The experimental set up has been modified to include an additional thermometer or temperature probe that is to be placed beside the jars. A SIMULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING page 4 Observations Time (min.) Temperature in the o jar with CO2 ( C) Temperature in the o jar with ambient air ( C) Temperature outside o of the jar ( C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 The observation chart will vary in length depending upon the length of time that data is collected. A SIMULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING page 5 Analysis 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Graph the data to compare the temperatures in the three treatments (2 bottles and 1 control). How do the results of your experiment compare with your hypothesis? Explain any differences. a) Which jar was warmer, the one containing carbon dioxide or the one containing air? How do the temperatures of the air in the jars compare to the thermometer in the open air? b) Are the differences in temperature significant? Explain. a) The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the past several years. See Figure #1. If the amount of carbon dioxide in the air continues to increase, hypothesize what effect this will have on the overall temperature of the world. Support your hypothesis with results from this lab. b) Investigate the effects that global warming has on severe weather events. Consider the scale of this experiment and comment on how it relates to the scale of the earth. Identify any errors in the experimental design and suggest ways to improve the design. Conclusion Explanation The air over the exposed thermometer is constantly changing, and as it gets warm it is replaced by cooler air. Because the air in the jar cannot circulate to the rest of the room, this air stays in the sunlight and gets warmer and warmer. A similar trapping of heat happens in the Earth’s atmosphere. Sunlight passes through the atmosphere and warms the Earth’s surface. The heat radiating from the surface is trapped by greenhouse gases. Without an atmosphere, the Earth’s temperature would average about -17oC. This warming, due to heat trapping gases, is called the Greenhouse Effect. Both the atmosphere and the jar allow light to enter, but then trap that energy when it is converted to heat. They work differently, however, because the jar keeps in the heated air, while the greenhouse gases absorb radiant heat. Suggested Website for Support New Scientist Special Report on Climate Change. November, 2005. http://www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/ A SIMULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING page 6 http://www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/ Special Reports on Key Topics in Science and Technology Timeline: Climate Change 1827: French polymath Jean-Baptiste Fourier predicts an atmospheric effect keeping the Earth warmer than it would otherwise be. He is the first to use a greenhouse analogy. 1863: Irish scientist John Tyndall publishes a paper describing how water vapour can be a greenhouse gas. 1890s: Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius and an American, PC Chamberlain, independently consider the problems that might be caused by CO2 building up in the atmosphere. Both scientists realize that the burning of fossil fuels could lead to global warming, but neither suspects the process might already have begun. 1890s to 1940: Average surface air temperatures increase by about 0.25 oC. Some scientists see the American Dust Bowl as a sign of the greenhouse effect at work. 1940 to 1970: Worldwide cooling of 0.2oC. Scientific interest in greenhouse effect wanes. Some climatologists predict a new ice age. 1957: US oceanographer Roger Revelle warns that humanity is conducting a “large scale geophysical experiment” on the planet by releasing greenhouse gases. Colleague David Keeling sets up first continuous monitoring of CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Keeling soon finds a regular year-on-year rise. 1970s: Series of studies by the US Department of Energy increases concerns about future global warming. 1979: First World Climate Conference adopts climate change as major issue and calls on governments “to foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate.” 1985: First major international conference on the greenhouse effect at Villach, Austria, warns that greenhouse gases will “in the first half of the next century, cause a rise of global mean temperature which is greater than any in man’s history.” This could cause sea levels to rise by up to one metre, researchers say. The conference also reports that gases other than CO2, such as methane, ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide, also contribute to warming. 1987: Warmest year since records began. The 1980s turn out to be the hottest decade on record, with seven of the eight warmest years recorded up to 1990. Even the coldest years in the 1980s were warmer than the warmest years of the 1880s. 1988: Global warming attracts worldwide headlines after scientists at Congressional hearings in Washington, DC blame major US drought on its influence. Meeting of climate scientists in Toronto subsequently calls for 20% cuts in global CO2 emissions by the year 2005. UN sets up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to analyse and report on scientific findings. 1990: The first report of the IPCC finds that the planet has warmed by 0.5oC in the past century. IPCC warns that only strong measures to halt rising greenhouse gas emissions will prevent serious global warming. This provides scientific clout for UN negotiations for a climate convention. Negotiations begin after the UN General Assembly in December. 1991: Mount Pinatubo erupts in the Philippines, throwing debris into the stratosphere that shields the Earth from solar energy, which helps interrupt the warming trend. Average temperatures drop for two years before rising again. Scientists point out that this event shows how sensitive global temperatures are to disruption. 1992: Climate Change Convention, signed by 154 nations in Rio, agrees to prevent “dangerous” warming from greenhouse gases and sets initial target of reducing emissions from industrialized countries to 1990 levels by the year 2000. A SIMULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING page 7 1994: The alliance of Small Island States – many of whom fear they will disappear beneath the waves as sea levels rise – adopt a demand for 20% cuts in emissions by the year 2005. This, they say, will cap sea level rise at 20 centimetres. 1995: The hottest year recorded to date. In March, the Berlin Mandate is agreed by signatories at the first full meeting of the Climate Change Convention in Berlin. Industrialized nations agree on the need to negotiate real cuts in their emissions, to be concluded by the end of 1997. In November, the IPCC states that current warming “is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin” and that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” Its report predicts that, under a “business as usual” scenario, global temperatures by the year 2100 will have risen by between 1oC and 3.5oC. 1996: At the second meeting of the Climate Change Convention, the US agrees for the first time to legally binding emissions targets and sides with the IPCC against influential skeptical scientists. After a four-year pause, global emissions of CO2 resume their steep climb, and scientists warn that most industrialized countries will not meet Rio agreement to stabilize emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000. 1997: Kyoto Protocol agrees legally binding emissions cuts for industrialized nations, averaging 5.4%, to be met by 2010. The meeting also adopts a series of flexibility measures, allowing countries to meet their targets partly by trading emissions permits, establishing carbon sinks such as forests to soak up emissions, and by investing in other countries. The precise rules are left for further negotiations. Meanwhile, the US government says it will not ratify the agreement unless it sees evidence of “meaningful participation” in reducing emissions from developing countries. 1998: Follow-up negotiations in Buenos Aires fail to resolve disputes over the Kyoto “rule book”, but agree on a deadline for resolution by the end of 2000. 1998 is the hottest year in the hottest decade of the hottest century of the millennium. 2000: IPCC scientists re-assess likely future emissions and warn that, if things go badly, the world could warm by 6oC within a century. A series of major floods around the world reinforce public concerns that global warming is raising the risk of extreme weather events. But in November, crunch talks held in The Hague to finalize the “Kyoto rule book” fail to reach agreement after EU and US fall out. Decisions postponed until at least May 2001. 2001: The new US president, George W Bush, renounces the Kyoto Protocol because he believes it will damage the US economy. After some hesitation, other nations agree to go ahead without him. Talks in Bonn in July and Marrakech in November finally conclude the fine print of the protocol. Analysts say that loopholes have pegged agreed cuts in emissions from rich-nation signatories to less than a third of the original Kyoto promise. Signatory nations urged to ratify the protocol in their national legislatures in time for it to come into force before the end of 2002. 2002: Parliaments in the European Union, Japan and others ratify Kyoto. But the protocol’s complicated rules require ratification by nations responsible for 55% of industrialized country emissions, before it can come into force. After Australia joins the US in reneging on the deal, Russia is left to make or break the treaty, but hesitates. Meanwhile, the world experiences the second hottest year on record. 2003: Globally, it is the third hottest year on record, but Europe experiences the hottest summer for at least 500 years, with an estimated 30,000 fatalities as a result. Extreme weather costs an estimated record of $60 billion this year. 2003 also sees a marked acceleration in the rate of accumulation of greenhouse gases. Scientists are uncertain if it is a blip or a new, more ominous trend. Meanwhile, Russia blows hot and cold over Kyoto. 2004: A deal is struck on Kyoto. President Putin announces in May that Russia will back the Protocol – and the EU announces it will support Russia’s membership of the World Trade Organization. On 18 November, the Russian parliament ratifies the protocol, making it likely to come into force early in 2005. A SIMULATION OF GLOBAL WARMING page 8