Download GRADE 10 SCIENCE A Simulation of Global Warming

GRADE 10 SCIENCE
A Simulation of Global Warming
Curriculum Expectations
SNC 2D Earth and Space Science: Weather Dynamics
Overall Expectations
ESV.01D
Demonstrate an understanding of the factors affecting the
fundamental processes of weather systems.
Understanding Basic Concepts
ES1.02D
Describe and explain heat transfer within the water cycle and how
the hydrosphere and atmosphere act as heat sinks.
ES1.03D
Describe and explain heat transfer in the hydrosphere and
atmosphere and its effects on air and water currents.
Developing Skills of Inquiry and Communication
ES2.01D
Through investigations and applications of basic concepts,
formulate scientific questions about weather-related phenomena,
problems and issues (e.g., What is the effect of heat energy transfer
within the hydrosphere?).
ES2.03D
Through investigations and applications of basic concepts, select
and integrate information from various sources, including electronic
and print resources, to answer the questions chosen.
ES2.04D
Through investigations and applications of basic concepts, analyse
data and information and evaluate evidence and sources of
information, identifying flaws such as errors and bias (e.g., explain
possible sources of error when interpreting a satellite picture used
for predicting weather).
ES2.06D
Investigate factors which affect the development, severity and
movement of global and local weather systems (e.g., the ozone layer,
El Niño, bodies of water, glaciers, smog, rain forests).
Relating Science to Technology, Society and the Environment
ES3.01D
Explain the role of weather dynamics in environmental phenomena
and consider the consequences to humans of changes in weather
(e.g., the role of weather in air pollution, acid rain, global warming
and smog; the fact that smog aggravates asthma).
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SNC 2P Earth and Space Science: Weather Dynamics
Overall Expectations
ESV.01P
Demonstrate an understanding of the factors affecting the
fundamental processes of weather systems.
Understanding Basic Concepts
ES1.02P
Describe and explain heat transfer within the water cycle and how
the hydrosphere and atmosphere act as heat sinks.
ES1.03P
Describe and illustrate the factors affecting heat transfer within the
water cycle in the atmosphere (e.g., temperature, pressure,
humidity, winds).
ES1.04P
Observe, through experiment and simulation, and describe (a) the
effects of atmospheric pressure, (b) the pattern of air movement in
convection, (c) the phenomenon of inversion, (d) the greenhouse
effect, and (e) heat transfer through radiation (e.g., (a) the
reduction of the boiling point of water with reduced pressure or
altitude; (c) the formation of dew or frost early in the morning
following a clear, calm night; (e) the use of dark solar panels for
effective heat transfer).
Developing Skills of Inquiry and Communication
ES2.02P
Through investigations and applications of basic concepts,
formulate scientific questions about these factors and outline
experimental procedures for finding answers.
ES2.03P
Through investigations and applications of basic concepts,
demonstrate the skills required to plan and conduct a weatherrelated inquiry, and collect data using appropriate instruments and
techniques safely and accurately (e.g., record temperatures and
atmospheric pressure; interpret weather maps and satellite
photographs).
ES2.06P
Through investigations and applications of basic concepts,
communicate the results of the investigation using a variety of oral,
written and graphic formats (e.g., diagrams, group presentations to
the class, flow charts, simulations, graphs).
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Introduction
The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during
the last hundred years. See Figure #1. This lab provides an introduction to the
greenhouse effect and allows students to directly measure the effect of increased
carbon dioxide.
Trends in CO2 Concentrations
CO2 Concentrations
(Parts per million by volume)
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
Year
Figure #1: Concentration of carbon dioxide (ppm) in the atmosphere over time.
Purpose
To observe the effect that carbon dioxide has on air temperature.
Hypothesis
Predict which treatment will result in the highest temperature.
Materials
For every group of four students:
•
•
•
•
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three small thermometers or temperature probes
two jars or other see-through containers
one clock or watch
carbon dioxide (can be made from the reaction between sodium bicarbonate
and hydrochloric acid)
modeling clay or putty
sun lamp or access to a sunny area to perform the experiment
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Methods
Teacher’s Note: A class supply of carbon dioxide can be generated through the
reaction of sodium bicarbonate and hydrochloric acid.
1.
Collect all material needed.
2.
Place thermometers on the counter under the sun lamp or in a sunny spot.
Record the initial temperature after the thermometers stop moving.
3.
Place two of the thermometers or temperature probes into two jars, one with
ambient air and the other with CO2, taking care that they do not cast a
shadow over the third thermometer. See Figure #2. Be sure that all
thermometers are at equal distance from the light source.
4.
Ensure that the two jars are air tight by sealing the top of the jars with the
modeling clay or putty.
5.
Record the temperature of all thermometers every 30 seconds for the next 20
minutes or until the temperatures have stabilized.
Figure #2: The experimental set up has been modified to include an additional
thermometer or temperature probe that is to be placed beside the jars.
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Observations
Time (min.)
Temperature in the
o
jar with CO2 ( C)
Temperature in the
o
jar with ambient air ( C)
Temperature outside
o
of the jar ( C)
0
1
2
3
4
5
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7
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9
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28
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40
The observation chart will vary in length depending
upon the length of time that data is collected.
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Analysis
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Graph the data to compare the temperatures in the three treatments (2
bottles and 1 control).
How do the results of your experiment compare with your hypothesis?
Explain any differences.
a) Which jar was warmer, the one containing carbon dioxide or the one
containing air? How do the temperatures of the air in the jars compare
to the thermometer in the open air?
b) Are the differences in temperature significant? Explain.
a) The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased
significantly over the past several years. See Figure #1. If the amount of
carbon dioxide in the air continues to increase, hypothesize what effect
this will have on the overall temperature of the world. Support your
hypothesis with results from this lab.
b) Investigate the effects that global warming has on severe weather
events.
Consider the scale of this experiment and comment on how it relates to the
scale of the earth.
Identify any errors in the experimental design and suggest ways to improve
the design.
Conclusion
Explanation
The air over the exposed thermometer is constantly changing, and as it gets warm it
is replaced by cooler air. Because the air in the jar cannot circulate to the rest of the
room, this air stays in the sunlight and gets warmer and warmer. A similar
trapping of heat happens in the Earth’s atmosphere. Sunlight passes through the
atmosphere and warms the Earth’s surface. The heat radiating from the surface is
trapped by greenhouse gases. Without an atmosphere, the Earth’s temperature
would average about -17oC. This warming, due to heat trapping gases, is called the
Greenhouse Effect. Both the atmosphere and the jar allow light to enter, but then
trap that energy when it is converted to heat. They work differently, however,
because the jar keeps in the heated air, while the greenhouse gases absorb radiant
heat.
Suggested Website for Support
New Scientist Special Report on Climate Change. November, 2005.
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/
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http://www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/
Special Reports on Key Topics in Science and Technology
Timeline: Climate Change
1827: French polymath Jean-Baptiste Fourier predicts an atmospheric effect keeping the Earth
warmer than it would otherwise be. He is the first to use a greenhouse analogy.
1863: Irish scientist John Tyndall publishes a paper describing how water vapour can be a
greenhouse gas.
1890s: Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius and an American, PC Chamberlain, independently
consider the problems that might be caused by CO2 building up in the atmosphere. Both
scientists realize that the burning of fossil fuels could lead to global warming, but neither
suspects the process might already have begun.
1890s to 1940: Average surface air temperatures increase by about 0.25 oC. Some scientists see the
American Dust Bowl as a sign of the greenhouse effect at work.
1940 to 1970: Worldwide cooling of 0.2oC. Scientific interest in greenhouse effect wanes. Some
climatologists predict a new ice age.
1957: US oceanographer Roger Revelle warns that humanity is conducting a “large scale geophysical
experiment” on the planet by releasing greenhouse gases. Colleague David Keeling sets up first
continuous monitoring of CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Keeling soon finds a regular year-on-year
rise.
1970s: Series of studies by the US Department of Energy increases concerns about future global
warming.
1979: First World Climate Conference adopts climate change as major issue and calls on
governments “to foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate.”
1985: First major international conference on the greenhouse effect at Villach, Austria, warns that
greenhouse gases will “in the first half of the next century, cause a rise of global mean
temperature which is greater than any in man’s history.” This could cause sea levels to rise by up
to one metre, researchers say. The conference also reports that gases other than CO2, such as
methane, ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide, also contribute to warming.
1987: Warmest year since records began. The 1980s turn out to be the hottest decade on record, with
seven of the eight warmest years recorded up to 1990. Even the coldest years in the 1980s were
warmer than the warmest years of the 1880s.
1988: Global warming attracts worldwide headlines after scientists at Congressional hearings in
Washington, DC blame major US drought on its influence. Meeting of climate scientists in
Toronto subsequently calls for 20% cuts in global CO2 emissions by the year 2005. UN sets up
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to analyse and report on scientific
findings.
1990: The first report of the IPCC finds that the planet has warmed by 0.5oC in the past century.
IPCC warns that only strong measures to halt rising greenhouse gas emissions will prevent
serious global warming. This provides scientific clout for UN negotiations for a climate
convention. Negotiations begin after the UN General Assembly in December.
1991: Mount Pinatubo erupts in the Philippines, throwing debris into the stratosphere that shields
the Earth from solar energy, which helps interrupt the warming trend. Average temperatures
drop for two years before rising again. Scientists point out that this event shows how sensitive
global temperatures are to disruption.
1992: Climate Change Convention, signed by 154 nations in Rio, agrees to prevent “dangerous”
warming from greenhouse gases and sets initial target of reducing emissions from industrialized
countries to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
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1994: The alliance of Small Island States – many of whom fear they will disappear beneath the
waves as sea levels rise – adopt a demand for 20% cuts in emissions by the year 2005. This, they
say, will cap sea level rise at 20 centimetres.
1995: The hottest year recorded to date. In March, the Berlin Mandate is agreed by signatories at
the first full meeting of the Climate Change Convention in Berlin. Industrialized nations agree
on the need to negotiate real cuts in their emissions, to be concluded by the end of 1997. In
November, the IPCC states that current warming “is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin”
and that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” Its
report predicts that, under a “business as usual” scenario, global temperatures by the year 2100
will have risen by between 1oC and 3.5oC.
1996: At the second meeting of the Climate Change Convention, the US agrees for the first time to
legally binding emissions targets and sides with the IPCC against influential skeptical scientists.
After a four-year pause, global emissions of CO2 resume their steep climb, and scientists warn
that most industrialized countries will not meet Rio agreement to stabilize emissions at 1990
levels by the year 2000.
1997: Kyoto Protocol agrees legally binding emissions cuts for industrialized nations, averaging
5.4%, to be met by 2010. The meeting also adopts a series of flexibility measures, allowing
countries to meet their targets partly by trading emissions permits, establishing carbon sinks
such as forests to soak up emissions, and by investing in other countries. The precise rules are
left for further negotiations. Meanwhile, the US government says it will not ratify the agreement
unless it sees evidence of “meaningful participation” in reducing emissions from developing
countries.
1998: Follow-up negotiations in Buenos Aires fail to resolve disputes over the Kyoto “rule book”, but
agree on a deadline for resolution by the end of 2000. 1998 is the hottest year in the hottest
decade of the hottest century of the millennium.
2000: IPCC scientists re-assess likely future emissions and warn that, if things go badly, the world
could warm by 6oC within a century. A series of major floods around the world reinforce public
concerns that global warming is raising the risk of extreme weather events. But in November,
crunch talks held in The Hague to finalize the “Kyoto rule book” fail to reach agreement after EU
and US fall out. Decisions postponed until at least May 2001.
2001: The new US president, George W Bush, renounces the Kyoto Protocol because he believes it
will damage the US economy. After some hesitation, other nations agree to go ahead without
him. Talks in Bonn in July and Marrakech in November finally conclude the fine print of the
protocol. Analysts say that loopholes have pegged agreed cuts in emissions from rich-nation
signatories to less than a third of the original Kyoto promise. Signatory nations urged to ratify
the protocol in their national legislatures in time for it to come into force before the end of 2002.
2002: Parliaments in the European Union, Japan and others ratify Kyoto. But the protocol’s
complicated rules require ratification by nations responsible for 55% of industrialized country
emissions, before it can come into force. After Australia joins the US in reneging on the deal,
Russia is left to make or break the treaty, but hesitates. Meanwhile, the world experiences the
second hottest year on record.
2003: Globally, it is the third hottest year on record, but Europe experiences the hottest summer for
at least 500 years, with an estimated 30,000 fatalities as a result. Extreme weather costs an
estimated record of $60 billion this year. 2003 also sees a marked acceleration in the rate of
accumulation of greenhouse gases. Scientists are uncertain if it is a blip or a new, more ominous
trend. Meanwhile, Russia blows hot and cold over Kyoto.
2004: A deal is struck on Kyoto. President Putin announces in May that Russia will back the
Protocol – and the EU announces it will support Russia’s membership of the World Trade
Organization. On 18 November, the Russian parliament ratifies the protocol, making it likely to
come into force early in 2005.
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