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Subscribe Share Past Issues Translate The Climate CIRCulator is brought to you by The Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) and The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI). In this Issue: Featured Researcher: Dr. Shaun Marcott The Impact of Beetle-Induced Tree Mortality on Water Quality Featured Researcher Reconstructing 11,300 Years of Temperature Data to Study Warming Dr. Shaun Marcott is a postdoctoral scholar in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University. His research interests span a broad range of geological and climatological questions that primarily encompass the past 100,000 years. Specifically, his expertise is in the fields of glacial geology and paleoclimatology with a firm rooting in geological and geochemical techniques. Dr. Marcott works with a number of paleoclimate archives including glacial deposits, marine sediment cores, and ice cores, as well as with statistical models. His work is primarily focused on understanding the interplay between climate and glaciers of the past, and is useful in placing modern climateglacier interactions into a historical context for understanding future changes. National Climate Assessment Northwest Regional Town Hall The Effect of Climate Sensitivity on Ocean Acidification Evidence of Increasing Frequency of Intense Precipitation in the Olympic Peninsula The Rain-Shadow Effect in the Washington Cascades The Impact of BeetleInduced Tree Mortality on RSS Water Quality Large scale tree die-offs, such as those caused by Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) infestations, can alter physical, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes in the affected watersheds. For instance, large dieoffs may enhance the leaching of natural organic matter into ground and surface waters. In turn, the increased concentration of certain organic compounds in water being treated for human consumption can lead to an increase in the formation of harmful disinfection by-products (DBPs) (these byproducts form as a result of reactions between the chlorine used as a disinfectant and several naturally occurring organic compounds). This study examined waterquality data sets for eight years (2004–2011) from a number of water treatment facilities in Colorado for perturbations due to tree mortality. MPB-impacted watersheds exhibited higher overall DBP concentrations and altered timing of peak DBP concentrations as compared to the controls. These results suggest that forest mortality due to MPB infestation induces unique changes to the forest carbon cycle. In particular, these results suggest that the relative abundance of the organic compounds involved in the formation of harmful DPBs is being altered in these systems. Mikkelson, K.M., E.R.V. Dickenson, R.M. Maxwell, J.E McCray, and J.O. Sharp. 2013. Water-quality impacts from climate-induced forest die-off. Nature Climate Change Vol. 3, 218-222. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1724. Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons, Forest Beetle Kill Reconstructing 11,300 Years of Temperature Data to Study Warming Marcott et al. reconstructed a dataset of surface temperature anomalies using 73 distributed temperature records that were derived largely from marine archives. Previous reconstructions of the past millennium relied mostly on land-based records. This study provides a broader perspective of temperature over the last 11,300 years. The authors compared their findings with the observational temperature record. The last 1,500–200 years before present of the 11,300-year temperature reconstruction are indistinguishable from previous studies. The coolest temperatures of this period were found 200 years ago, in a period also known as the Little Ice Age. Global climate model projections show that global temperature is likely to exceed the full distribution of warmth presented in this paper by the year 2100. Marcott, S.A., J.D. Shakun, P.U. Clark, and A.C. Mix. 2013. A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years. Science Vol. 339 (6124), 1198-1201. doi: 10.1126/science.1228026. Photo Credit: Creative Commons, flickr.com/photos NCA Northwest Regional Town Hall The National Climate Assessment (NCA) Northwest Regional Town Hall took place March 12, 2013 at Portland State University. This one-day meeting brought together over 100 climate change experts and users of climate change information to learn about the NCA process and how to use and contribute to the Third NCA Report (to be released in 2014). Participants were from academia, government agencies, non-profit organizations, private sectors, and the general public. After presentations on draft findings from the report, current climate activities in the region, and a panel session on building assessment capacity, participants broke into small groups for discussion based on different sectors such as water resources, forestry, and society’s response to climate change. Each group discussed and identified concrete actions that are (or could be) taking place on the regional, sectoral, and national levels; what data, information, and chapters of the NCA were most relevant and interesting; and what was missing and should be included in the subsequent reports through the sustained assessment process. In addition, the groups discussed what capacities already exist and are still needed, and how to develop them in the future. You can view and download individual presentations from the town hall here. Photo Credit: Mount Rainier from Tipsoo Lake, Dudley Chelton The Effect of Climate Sensitivity on Ocean Acidification As the oceans absorb rising amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, they are becoming more acidic and consequently may become less hospitable to some organisms. Through the use of numerical modeling, this study examines the response of the ocean to various degrees of global warming (the “climate sensitivity;” a higher climate sensitivity leads to greater warming for the same amount of CO2). The climate sensitivity impacts the ocean’s response by affecting upper-ocean stratification, and because CO2 is less soluble in warmer water. The authors found that increased climate sensitivity caused unexpected responses in the ocean. For instance, they found whole-ocean acidification is smallest when warming is greatest, due to a spatial decoupling in acidification between the surface mixed layer and subsurface layers. These findings highlight the need for a better understanding of the biological effects of ocean acidification, as well as the spatial extents of those organisms that will be most impacted. Matsumoto, K., and B. McNeil. 2013. Decoupled Response of Ocean Acidification to Variations in Climate Sensitivity. J. Climate Vol. 26 (5). doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00290.1. Photo Credit: Beach near Tofino on Vancouver Island, Dudley Chelton Evidence of Increasing Frequency of Intense Precipitation in the Olympic Peninsula Anthropogenic greenhouse gases may lead to changes in the frequency and severity of large storms. Though many previous studies have looked to the observed record for evidence of such change already occuring, Muschinski and Katz (2013) have taken a new look at statistics of hourly precipitation observations, focusing on 13 stations scattered across the contiguous US. In particular, they examined trends in the decadal averages of the normalized variance of hourly precipitation. After accounting for interannual variability, they concluded that only one station showed statistically significant changes: Aberdeen, WA, at the southern end of the Olympic Peninsula, where the normalized variance increased by 6.5% per decade over the last 50 years. The results for Aberdeen are not spurious, the study’s authors argue, but arise from how precipitation generally forms in the region. At most of the stations studied, peak 1-hour precipitation amounts occur during convective storms, which are statistically more "noisy" than hourly precipitation during typical large-scale northwest winter storms. At Aberdeen, therefore, it should be easier to separate the slow additive signal due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the noise. Muschinski, T., and J.I. Katz. 2013. Trends in hourly rainfall statistics in the United States under a warming climate. Nature Climate Change. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1828. The Rain-Shadow Effect in the Washington Cascades The rain-shadow effect is a dominant feature in Pacific Northwest climate, and the Cascade Range provides one of the best examples in the world. Annual precipitation is as much as 10 times higher on the windward side as on the lee side of the north-south oriented Washington Cascades. The physical mechanisms behind a rain shadow are wellunderstood: with prevailing winds typically from the west, rising air expands and cools on west/windward slopes, condenses, and produces precipitation. On the east/lee side, warming air descends and cloud particles evaporate. To help explain the strength of the rain shadow, the authors used an eastwest transect of six SNOTEL stations through the central Cascades. They used winter (December, January, and February) precipitation from the SNOTEL sites to calculate a total precipitation and rainshadow index. They found that the rain shadow is strongly influenced by a teleconnection pattern associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño is associated with a weaker rain-shadow effect because the southern storm track brings more warm fronts through the range. La Niña tends to exhibit a stronger rain-shadow effect, with a more northern storm track. Streamflow data from eastern and western Washington watersheds support interpretation of SNOTEL data. Siler, N., G. Roe, and D. Durran. 2013. On the Dynamical Causes of Variability in the Rain-Shadow Photo Credit: Cape of the Arches, Dudley Chelton Effect: A Case Study of the Washington Cascades. J. Hydrometeor Vol. 14, 122-139. doi: 10.1175/JHMD-12-045.1. Photo Credit: Summer solstice sunset over Broken Top, 21 June 2011, Dudley Chelton Photo Credit: Marys Peak from Pyramid Peak in the Oregon Cascades on an Exceptionally Clear Day (at top) and Crater Lake in Winter, Dudley Chelton. The Climate CIRCulator is brought to you by The Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC). CIRC delivers science, information, and tools to decision makers responsible for the management of resources and services in a changing climate. Our team consists of experts from Oregon State University, the University of Oregon, the University of Idaho, Boise State University, and the University of Washington. CIRC is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and housed in the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) at Oregon State University. The OCCRI brochure can be downloaded here. follow on Twitter | friend on Facebook The Climate CIRCulator, April, 2013, Issue 4. Copyright © 2012, The PNW Climate Impacts Research Consortium. All rights reserved. Climate CIRCulator Past Issues unsubscribe from this list | update subscription preferences