Download CLIMATE CHANGE CLUSTER

CLIMATE CHANGE CLUSTER
Up to now, 18 Members States participated to the cluster « Climate Change » and exchanged
informations and proposals. Five of them send basic proposals. Austria provided a general
paper covering all the aspects of Climate Change Impacts which can be taken as a main
frame for joint programming actions in this cluster, or in other words as an umbrella under
which particular proposals can be received.
France, United Kingdom and Italy have built a joint proposal on « Agriculture, Food
Security and Climate Change ». This proposal was already discussed at the level of research
organizations, interested to participate. Many other member States declared (but very
recently) their interest for this proposal which in consequence could require further
concertations and discussions between research organizations.
Germany send a proposal on “Contribution of agriculture and forestry to the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation to climate change”, very close to the above
proposal and which will certainly be merged with it, but in the same time, the german
contribution introduce some aspects that again require additionnal concertation between
research organizations.
Germany provided also two other “initial proposals”, one on impacts of Climate Change on
human Health, rising research questions on possible impacts of CC on infectious and non
infectious diseases, another one on High-Tech Strategy approach for recording clouds
correctly and taking them into account, in order to make climate simulations more reliable.
In the following pages, the High Level Group will find these contributions and proposals, as
they are, on October 10th.
Climate Change impacts (AU)
page 2
Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FR-UK-IT)
page 8
Contribution of agriculture and forestry to the adaptation
to climate change (DE)
page 18
Climate Change on human Health (DE)
page 23
High-Tech Strategy approach for recording clouds correctly
and taking them into account (DE)
page 25
For the moment, there is one mature proposal on “Agriculture, Food security and Climate
Change”, for which the acceptation by the HLG and the CPG Secretariat is waited. There are
also “pre-mature” proposals, for which further concertations between Member States and
between research organizations are necessary.
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AUSTRIA
1.
Theme for the Joint Programming Initiative: CLIMATE CHANGE
A broad spectrum of measures are currently undertaken to reduce the impact of climate
change. However climate change is already ongoing and regions have to cope with different
consequences due to this change. The understanding of these change processes, their regional
dependencies, and the consequences of climate change especially on the basic infrastructure
(water supply, energy demand, transport infrastructure, etc.) is essential to prepare
tomorrow’s innovation systems and infrastructure. The impacts of these changes on society
and economy as well as on nature have to be investigated to properly address future demands
and boundary conditions of society, industry and policy. The key systems affected by climate
change are
A.
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Nature and ecology
Water systems,
Animal and plant biodiversity,
Soil ecosystems (land use),
Pollution,
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Society and economy
Energy use and supply,
Transportation infrastructure,
Agriculture and forestry,
Human Health,
Risks induced by extreme events (e.g. floods, landslides, forest fires, etc.),
...
B.
These systems are highly related to each other and new approaches are required to develop
new solutions to cope with the consequences of climate change without affecting our living
standard and quality of life:
 The water system is one of the most affected systems by climate change. Temperature
rise leads to increased water demand, storms and heavy rain requires adapted sewerage
systems – in any case new water management concepts have to be in place to secure
both water quality and our water demand and protect people from negative
consequences.
 The impact of climate change – water shortage and temperature increase – has severe
consequences for microorganisms, plants, animals, and therefore also society. This
may lead to shifts in plant and animal biodiversity in terrestrial and water ecosystems
as a major consequence and has significant impact on our biological environment, the
availability of bio-resources and even our healthcare system (e.g. animal borne
diseases e.g. Malaria). Comprehensive investigations of these shifts are required to be
able to properly address these changes.
 Climate change may lead to changes in the fertility of the soil ecosystems. New
approaches to secure sustainable productivity of agricultural resources are required.
 Climate change may lead to changes in the bioavailability and remobilisation
processes of pollutants (e.g. mercury, organ toxicants, etc.) in soils and fresh water
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ecosystems. Long term monitoring studies are required to provide sound basis for
appropriate measures.
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Climate change leads to an increased energy demand for heating and cooling. This
leads to the demand for new building concepts that are energetically self-sustaining
and for new heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems that are highly energy
efficient. New energy resources based on biological systems may provide a new basis
to cover this increased energy demand.
Extreme weather events cause a higher risk for transportation infrastructure.
Ascending number of floods and landslides will seriously harm the infrastructure itself
and hinder the transportation system requiring adapted maintenance concepts to
guarantee safety and reliability of the infrastructure network. Changing weather
conditions (especially frequently heavy rain) will additionally directly affect
transportation safety. Furthermore infrastructure requirements (especially for the
newly built) have to meet the concerns apposed by climate change.
Agriculture and forestry are highly exposed to climate change since they directly
depend on climatic conditions. Impacts comprise biotic disturbances (pests, weeds,
and diseases), and implications for crop production, livestock and food security.
The climate change induced alterations of the spatial and temporal distribution and
dynamics of pathogenic agents requires new models and concepts for detection of
diseases, appropriate medication and protection measures of humans. Furthermore the
costs of such climate related health impacts have to be assessed.
Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events (e.g.
floods, landslides, forest fires, droughts, etc.). This leads to increased risks for human
health and goods and chattels.
Significant differences between current and future climate can be expected at regional
scale. Especially sensitive regions, like the mountain regions (e.g. the Alps, and the
Carpathians), are affected from climate change due to its complex terrain dynamics.
The impact of the induced changes on biodiversity, the water system or the social
system can be investigated using this region as test case.
Proposing GPC member/members
Name, institution, e-mail and telephone
3.
Objectives
Climate changes respectively the side effects coming along with climate change highly
influence our daily life. Key objectives are therefore the investigation of these different
factors to understand their relevance, impact and dependencies, the reduction of the climate
change consequences to maintain our quality of life, as well as the development of RTI-policy
measures that support the transformation to sustainable innovation systems.
The objectives that have to be met comprise:
 Strengthen climate observations, maintain long term records and develop regional
models.
 Securing both water quality and water supply and adapting water management
concepts including hydropower generation where relevant that are better suited for
“new” climate conditions.
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Understanding shifts in animal and plant biodiversity and preparing appropriate
interventions.
Planning new management concepts for soil, agriculture and forestry.
Improving understanding of sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon and other green
house gases.
Long term monitoring of bioavailability and remobilisation processes of pollutants.
Providing concepts and technological solutions for energy generation, transmission
and use as well as concepts for construction of buildings that satisfy the demand for
heating and cooling with less input of primary energy and less emissions of
greenhouse gases.
Integration of renewable energy resources in energy end use not only in buildings,
cities and municipalities but also in the industry sector.
Investigation of the transportation infrastructure to provide a safe and reliable
infrastructure also under changing conditions.
Determining how, and to what degree, terrestrial agro-ecosystems can be managed to
increase the delivery of food, feed, fibre and other services.
Developing methods to investigate which health impacts and to what extent are
attributable to climate change and developing measures to cope with these impacts.
Assessing the impacts of extreme events as well as the socio economic implications of
adaption to and mitigation of these extremes.
Evaluation of the impacts on innovation systems and RTI-policy to develop measures
for transforming innovation systems to sustainable ones.
Research questions being addressed
A broad spectrum of research questions has to be covered to meet the defined objectives.
Compared to conventional research approaches this initiative applies a multi-disciplinary and
multi-stakeholder approach to address the research challenges with the required complexity:
 What are the interactive affects of changes in CO2 climate and biogeochemistry on the
terrestrial Carbon cycle and on food and fibre production?
 What are reasonable scenarios of the future distribution, structure and productivity of
both managed and unmanaged ecosystems based on changes in land use, disturbance
regimes and climate?
 How will climate change alter biotic diversity and what are the ecosystem
consequences?
 How will climate change alter biotic interactions with the hydrologic cycle and surface
energy balance? Which protection, conservation and restoration measures of
microorganisms, plants and animals are required and how can they be implemented
effectively?
 How will climate change affect biotic controls over transport of water nutrients,
pollutants and materials from land to fresh water ecosystems?
 How to adapt our water management concepts?
 What are the impacts of climate change and human activities on biodiversity and
ecosystem services in particular in mountain regions?
 How to realise energy efficient buildings, gadgets, industrial processes, etc., widerange deployment of renewables together with intelligent grid integration where
relevant, with special focus on heat from renewables and heat storage?
 How to integrate new energy resources (e.g. based on microorganisms or plants) in the
infrastructure (e.g. facades of buildings, etc.)
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How to adapt transportation infrastructure management concepts and infrastructure
properties to guarantee a safe and reliable transportation infrastructure under changing
climatic conditions.
How can palaeontologic records help to improve our knowledge on climate history
(Holocene) and to develop better regional models for future climate scenarios?
Which RTI-policy strategies and measures are required to transform our innovation
systems to sustainable ones?
Which economic consequences occur, especially in sensitive regions and which
measures have to be taken to adapt our industry and economy to maintain economic
wealth?
Added-value, benefits and impact
Joint Programming offers the possibility to address climate change and its consequences with
a clear focus on the basic infrastructure (water, energy, transportation, ecosystems, biological
resources, health care, etc.) on a cross national level. The complex relationships between the
different research areas can be taken into consideration and benefits can be obtained by
utilising enabling technologies in different research areas (nano sensors, bio energy, bio
monitoring, water runoff models, etc.).
Especially the transformation process of the Alpine Region into a sustainable development
can act as a test case and new insights could accelerate this transformation process and
overcome existing barriers. The results can be taken as best practice models for other
European regions, which are dominated by complex terrain dynamics.
The development of technologies and systems that reduce the impact of climate change on
highly important systems is essential for maintaining quality of life of people and providing a
sound basis for innovative products and services and a competitive industry and research.
6.
Suggestions for a design of a JPI in Climate Change
The Joint Programme Initiative is presently in the phase of strategy and process development.
It seems therefore the right time to debate also possible programme designs and procedures
and their pros and cons.
Regarding the JPI in climate change, there may be a danger of getting entangled in differing
national interests when using a sectoral or systems approach due to the large diversity of
national and regional climate change problems. If we take e.g. the Water-Cycle, problems of
climate change differ widely between various European regions and countries. This reality
makes it difficult to find a common workable research agenda, e.g. between the
Mediterranean region and North-Western Europe.
It may therefore be wise to think a-priori about possible JPI designs for climate change, which
allow for common strategies, a clear structure and joint activities. Three different suggestions
for a potential successful JPI in Climate Change are described below:
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Design suggestion 1: focus only on one specific and clearly defined theme that is
relevant for all of Europe. This is done e.g. for Alzheimer disease; for Climate
Change, such themes would need to be identified.
Design suggestion 2: design the JPI for climate change along geographic or regional
areas and goals. Examples for such a design could be water scarcity in the
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Mediterranean vs. flood management in North-Western Europe; forest fire
management in the Mediterranean vs. forest species management in Northern Europe;
efficient irrigation systems in the Mediterranean vs. changes for agriculture in
Northern Europe. One could define a number of such topics. The frame of the JPI
would need to be flexible enough for allowing such an approach.
Design suggestion 3: focus on joint political agreements in climate change as a red
thread for the JPI. Examples for this can include the Common Agricultural Policy
(CAP), the Water Framework Direction (WFD) or many other European policies
related to Climate Change, biodiversity, natural protection and management or
infrastructures.
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AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
(FR-UK-IT)
This proposal is a framework to discuss with the members states who want to participate in a
joint programming initiative in the area of agriculture addressing climate change and food
security research questions. It encompasses earlier proposals from France and the UK, and
combines suggested activities on agriculture and food security, and agriculture and climate
change, following discussions at the European Agricultural Research Initiative (EURAGRI)
in Madrid 27-30 September 2009.
1.
Theme and area of the Joint Programming Initiative (JPI)
European and global challenge
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For many key parameters, the climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of
natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived.
There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to extreme
climatic events and to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts (IPCC,
2007, IARU congress, 2009).
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Agriculture and forestry are highly exposed to climate change since they directly
depend on climatic conditions. The variability of crop yields has already increased as a
consequence of extreme climatic events, such as the summer heat of 2003 and the
spring drought of 2007 in Europe. During the summer of 2003, temperatures were up
to 6°C above long-term means, and precipitation deficits up to 300 mm. Crop yields
were reduced by 20-36 % in regions affected, leading to uninsured economic losses
for the agriculture sector in the European Union which were estimated at 36 billion
Euros (IPCC, 2007).
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Global demand for food is expected to increase by 50% by 2030 and to double by
2050, due to population growth, urbanisation and increasing affluence in parts of the
developing world (FAO, 2008). The world’s population is projected to increase from
6 billion to 9 billion by 2050. Food supply must increase sustainably to meet this
demand, and is made more complicated by climate change.
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Global climate change can be expected to threaten food production and its supply, for
example through changing patterns of rainfall, increasing incidence of extreme
weather and changing distribution of diseases and their vectors. Global stocks of
some staple foods have declined, and spikes in food prices (such as those seen during
2008) may become more frequent if rising demand cannot be consistently matched by
supply.
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The agricultural sector of tropical and sub-tropical countries, particularly in SubSaharan Africa, is extremely fragile and vulnerable to climate change. Any major food
crisis in these regions will directly and indirectly impact on Europe and it is therefore
in its interest to work with these regions on preventive and adaptive measures. In fact,
current trends towards relative social and political stability in parts of SSA,
representing joint economic opportunities for Europe, could be reversed by negative
impacts of climate change on agriculture. This threat will be amplified by increasing
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competition between food and (bio)energy production objectives if no innovative and
coherent solutions are found.
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By the late 21st century, plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred
kilometres to the north and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction. A
combination of the rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles is
projected to lead to a large decline in European biodiversity.
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We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector (crops, livestock, fisheries, forests,
biomass, and commodities)1:
- to feed the world
- to enhance rural livelihoods
- to stimulate economic growth
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This proposal therefore focuses on the activities for joint action to address the
combined challenges of food security against the continuous threat brought by various
scenarios of climate change:
- we need to act now to secure safe, nutritious and affordable food for the future
- we need to mobilise funding and coordination across the EU agri-food research
sector now in order to have the science and skilled scientists to underpin
sustainable food production for the future
- it takes 10 years to get plant science from lab bench to crop in field
- this is a preventable crisis – and research is going to be crucial in providing the
answers
- EU research has a key role to play – drawing on world leading expertise and
facilities in plant and microbial sciences.
Policy relevant focus
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Climate change in relation with energy security has been considered by G8 as the most
important issue to be tackled in the strategic perspective of ensuring global
sustainability, while addressing the economic and financial crisis2.
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The EU White Paper3 'Adapting to climate change' gives an overview on the climate
change impacts on agriculture and lays out a European framework for action to
improve Europe's resilience to climate change, emphasising the need to integrate
adaptation into all key European policies and enhance co-operation at all levels of
governance.
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Climate change and Food Security were identified as interlinked challenges for the
future research agricultural agenda by the Standing Committee on Agricultural
Research (SCAR4). SCAR recognised a significant gap in the coordination of relevant
research at European level.
1
Bob Watson, Chief Scientific advisor, UK DEFRA, Director of the International Assessment of Agricultural
Science and technology for Development (IAASTD).
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G8
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Commission staff working document accompanying the White Paper “Adapting to climate change : Toward a
European framework for action” COM(2009) 147.
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SCAR conclusions following the 2nd SCAR-Foresight (2006-2009)
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A recent Commission Communication on European agricultural research elaborates on
the needs and directions for EU climate change research and innovation, including
those for the agriculture sector.
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In addition, as rural areas are exposed to wider climatic risks and as significant parts
of rural Europe are characterised by economic multifunctionality, an integrated
understanding of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, forestry, land use and
rural economies and societies is important.
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The agriculture, forestry and land use sector can play an important role in mitigating
climate change via carbon sequestration in soils, bioenergy production and to a lesser
extent by reducing N2O and CH4 emissions (IPCC AR4 WG3 2007, UNFCCC 2008).
By 2010, emissions from European agriculture would be 16% below their 1990 level,
because of recent Common Agricultural Policy reforms, water policies and other
factors5. However, there are also indirect greenhouse gas emissions involved by
agriculture, livestock and forestry both from inputs, transport, land use change and
downstream (e.g. food processing) activities. The global livestock generates directly
or indirectly 18 % of global greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalents
(Livestock’s Long Shadow, LEAD, FAO, 2006).
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A substantial increase of the European research into climate change impacts and
adaptation is one of the recommendations made by the European Economic and Social
Committee6 7. Research has to answer the question how the growing demand for food,
bio-energy and bio-fuels can be met simultaneously in a world with shrinking water
and land resources, increasing soil degradation and under accelerated global
warming all impairing on land productivity.
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Adaptation measures can be taken at national, regional and local levels. Because
adaptation is a trans-boundary issue, countries bordering the EU, as well as key
regions outside Europe notably in SSA, will also be considered and adaptation will be
integrated in all relevant external policies. The international aspects of adaptation are
addressed in the policy paper “Toward a Comprehensive Climate Change Agreement
in Copenhagen”8.
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It will be extremely difficult to balance food deficits in one part of the world with food
surpluses in another, unless major adaptation investments are made soon to foster the
comparative advantage of affected regions in appropriate agricultural sectors. These
investments may include trade policy and also the generation of innovative technical
and economic opportunities, well beyond conservative measures, such as agricultural
breakthrough technologies able to face environmental transformations induced by
climate change.
Mariann Fischer Boel, Farming’s role in mitigating climate change, Conference on “Adapting to Climate
Change – Brussels, 3 July 2007.
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COM (2009) 147 final
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C 120/38, Official Journal of the European Union, May, 2008.( on the “Green Paper from the Commission to
the Cuncil, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee of the Regions: Adapting to
climate change in Europe – Options for EU action)
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http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm
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Joint programming on adaptation to and mitigation of climate change in the
agriculture, forestry and land use sector will integrate research on climatic trends with
extreme events, natural sciences with social sciences, research with actual policy and
management, ecosystems with products and services, production with health, food
security and food quality issues.
2. Proposing GPC members
To add
Current collaborations with USA, Canada, China, India, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand and
African and Asian countries may allow for expanded activities.
3. Objectives
Much work is already conducted at EU, national and regional level hence a key objective for
joint programming is to integrate relevant approaches and create a vision and framework for
future activity. This should include issues including:
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The size and dimensions of the problem require a long-lasting and large base research
endeavour.
The overarching objective is to integrate adaptation, mitigation and food security in
the agriculture, forestry and land use sector.
Measures providing co-benefits in terms of reducing emissions and increasing
resilience of farming, forestry and biodiversity need to be indentified and promoted.
Scientific challenge:
- i) increase the delivery of food security, feed, fiber and other services in an altered
and more variable climate
- ii) contribute to carbon sequestration, fossil fuel energy substitution and mitigation
of N2O and CH4 emissions.
A major knowledge objective concerns the development of a systemic understanding,
integrating a large range of disciplines from climatology, to ecology, biology,
agronomy, forestry and socio-economy, through plant, soil and animal sciences, that
will be strongly connected around a central spine of agro-ecological modelling.
Adapting planning in agriculture cannot only rely on knowledge about global climate
patterns, but needs detailed information on regional impacts and meaningful
assessment of the adaptive options and their feasibility at local and farm level.
A cost-benefit analysis of short- and long-term adaptation/mitigation strategies will be
addressed taking into account uncertainties to the projections of climate change and
impacts.
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4.
Research questions being addressed
Joint Programming has the potential to induce a quantum leap in defining and delivering
European Research to meet the challenges of enhancing both food production and
environmental benefits while minimising environmental harm.
There is much potential in integrating on a very large scale two major components:, i)
developing and implementing specific solutions at the systems and policy levels, ii)
developing highly innovative breakthrough technologies.
4.1 Developing and implementing specific solutions at the systems and policy levels
This research area will principally have applied orientation and should yield workable
adaptation options, from the production systems to macro-economics, sectorial, food security
and environmental policies.
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Designing integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies
Adaptation options should limit negative impacts and take advantage of potential
opportunities (e.g., elevated atmospheric CO2, warmer climate at high latitudes, increased
rainfall in areas where this will happen). Moreover, adaptive changes in production systems
and the potential for system migration or transformation will be assessed based on costbenefit approaches taking into account environmental constraints, land and labor
requirements, demands for food and non-food products and biodiversity issues. This research
will also lead to the design of novel cropping, livestock and forestry systems that are adapted
to the unchartered climatic and atmospheric conditions of the end of this century.
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This research might include: Mapping regional vulnerabilities for policy support.
There is currently no understanding of the systemic impacts of climate variability and
change on rural landscapes and on regions in Europe, the Mediterranean and other
regions that are key to European interests, notably in SSA. Research will address these
issues by developing integrated GIS tools providing decision support for local,
regional, national and European planning and policies. This approach will help
prioritizing regions and systems for the adaptations and mitigation strategies to be
applied. Sectoral policies concerning e.g. land use, nature and biodiversity
conservation, water and irrigation, greenhouse gas emissions and soil quality (e.g. soil
carbon sequestration) will also benefit from this approach.
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Environmental impact: food production and the supply chain can have wide-ranging
positive and negative impacts on the environment. Negative impacts include
escalating water and land use, soil erosion and degradation through loss of fertility or
desertification, loss of biodiversity, and intensive use of energy (for production,
notably for fertiliser manufacture, and for supply, especially in transport and
refrigeration) with associated greenhouse gas emissions. By contrast, agricultural land
can manage water quality and flood risks and act as habitats for wildlife, while
agricultural soils are major carbon sinks. Negative environmental impacts will need to
be minimised, particularly as the demand for food rises and the climate changes.
Research will also lead to the design of novel cropping and livestock systems that are
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also adapted to the uncharted climatic and atmospheric conditions of the end of this
century.
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Pests and diseases present further challenges to the production and supply of food –
from crops and from farmed animals and aquaculture. Threats include new and
emerging pests and diseases, and the spread of existing ones to new regions because of
climate change. Increased use of chemical inputs to address these problems will be
limited by regulatory requirements, the need to avoid potential adverse environmental
impacts, and the greater costs of producing fertilisers and pesticides because of rising
energy prices. Exploitation of natural resistance to pests and diseases, and tolerance
of environmental stresses, will be important for sustainably increasing yields or for
expanding the area that can be used for agricultural production under adverse or
variable conditions.
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Efficiency of resource use: while land and water in particular will become increasingly
scarce, it will also be important to improve the efficiency with which other resources
are utilised, including nitrogen, energy and other inputs to agriculture and all stages of
the food supply chain.
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Reducing waste is a major challenge: at the same time as enhancing yields and
improving efficiency, there is a pressing need to find new ways of reducing waste
throughout the food supply chain. Post-harvest losses are estimated to be currently
40% worldwide, with waste occurring in storage, during transportation and
processing, from the retail sector and by consumers.
4.2 Developing highly innovative breakthrough technologies.
The shared vision developed through joint programming will include work on a roadmap of
research and related activities which need to be delivered at EU level by participants to realise
the challenges identified. Topics for consideration in such a roadmap will be identified by
participants but might include:
Crop production Research will be needed on crops for the EU and other temperate regions
and also for the developing world. Research targets include:
a. Enhancing crop productivity while maintaining quality and with optimised
efficiency of resource use (water, nitrogen, other nutrients); reducing reliance on
fertilisers whose production is heavily dependent on fossil fuels; making more
efficient use of chemical inputs through precision application and controlled
release.
b. Major scientific challenges such as raising photosynthetic efficiency through
engineering C4 metabolism, and introducing nitrogen fixation to cereals or other
non-legume crops.
c. Enhancing resistance to pests and diseases, and research on weed control.
Advances will require improved knowledge of the biology and genetics of the host
and pathogen or pest and (importantly) their interactions.
d. Research to sustain effective use of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides in the
face of evolution towards resistance.
e. Enhancing tolerance of abiotic stresses (e.g., drought, salinity, flooding, ozone,
UV, high and low extremes of temperature, especially at critical stages such as
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f.
g.
h.
i.
j.
k.
flowering); research is needed especially on the effects of combinations of such
stresses.
Reducing post-harvest losses from pests and diseases.
Exploiting the potential of genomics (of model plants, crops, microbes, pathogens,
pests, beneficial organisms) – the pace is accelerating with advances in sequencing
technologies.
Mathematical and computational approaches – leading to improved ability to
predict outcomes and provide tools for decision-making in managing agricultural
systems using an integrated network of excellence centres for scenario model data
integration and large scale observation and modelling infrastructures.
Making best use of genetic diversity: to develop new cultivars of current crops and
to explore the potential of new crops for adapting to the predicted climate,
including rising carbon dioxide and temperature.
Making more effective the transfer of knowledge from advances gained using
model species into practical application in crops.
Soil science/microbiology and root-soil interactions, including how to improve
nutrient flows to support plant growth; also root diseases.
Livestock production There are arguments on health and environmental grounds to reduce
overall meat consumption in the western diet, but global demand for meat and dairy products
is predicted to increase greatly. Research targets include:
a. Identifying possible changes in processes that would help to reduce adverse impacts
on the environment especially to greenhouse gas (methane, nitrous oxide) emissions
from livestock and manures – using nutritional and genetic approaches to improve
efficiency of production (conversion of plant biomass to meat) and to reduce
resource inputs and waste.
b. Managing the threat from and impact of animal diseases, including both current and
newly emerging or exotic diseases, and spread of disease from and to wild animals.
Risks from animal diseases are increasing with climate change and increased
movement of animals and people. Effective surveillance, monitoring, prevention
and treatment are all required.
c. New zoonotic diseases are a particular threat, and EU-wide and global approaches to
horizon scanning for potential new diseases are needed.
d. Detection and treatment of sub-clinical diseases that can have major impact on
productivity and welfare.
e. Integrated approaches to reducing disease through genetic selection for immunity
combined with vaccine development (where there may be opportunities for
international sharing of effort), epidemiology and improved knowledge of hostpathogen interactions.
f. Mathematical modelling will be important to enable prediction of disease outbreaks
and to optimise interventions.
g. Ensuring animal welfare under future climates (e.g., increasingly variable and
extreme weather) and/or altered production methods: research needs include
developing objective measures of well-being in animals.
h. Animal breeding for improved yield and quality while maintaining appropriate
welfare.
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This research targets can be rooted on:
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Adaptation and mitigation ‘omics’. The recent advances in ‘omics’ research, interspecific hybridization, molecular marker-assisted breeding, transgenics, functional
(agro) ecology and crop physiology to design and develop new genotypes for crop,
tree and adaptations, morphology, phenology and yield traits.
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Mitigation technologies taking into account possible trade-offs and synergies with
adaptation, biodiversity, soil and water resources.

Adaptation biotechnologies. For example, Genomics based biotechnologies will help
accelerating crop improvement for adaptation to changing climatic and hydrological
environments.
5.
Added-value, benefits and impact
Joint Programming in this field is based on the conviction that sharing the burden in research
to cope effectively and efficiently with the challenges presented would bring benefits to all
involved in such an exercise. This was a major message from the SCAR Foresight Working
Groups and a recent Commission Communication on agricultural research (ref). Bringing
together the key research organisations and funders in Europe could enable a great leap
forward in developing the concept of multifunctional and sustainable food production for
different agro-ecological zones and regions within Europe and within other regions that are
key to European interests, notably in Africa.

In the context of the Common Agricultural Policy reform, agro-ecological measures
will be of increasing economic importance. Agriculture, forestry and agri-business
competitiveness will increasingly depend on the compatibility of this sectoral policy
with climate change. The research undertaken will have a major role in avoiding food
crises in the developing world, thereby reducing regional conflicts, refugees and
migrations. It will also have human health impacts by improving the monitoring and
understanding of zoonotic animal diseases.

Most initiatives have been taken at national level to date, but a joint EU approach and
research programming can maximise the effectiveness of national efforts, particularly
in: i) sectors that are closely integrated at EU level such as agriculture, ii) crossboundary issues such as river basins and biodiversity management, iii) disadvantaged
regions and regions most affected by climate change. These measures must be
supported and strengthened by an integrated and coordinated approach at EU level.
Therefore a Joint Programme should not ignore the diversity of European cropping,
livestock, forestry, fisheries and integrated farming systems priorities: ‘Joint’ does not
mean homogeneous, but coordinated.

The EU is well placed to facilitate coordination and the exchange of best practice
between Member States on agricultural production.
The necessary
adaptations/corrections in the Agricultural Knowledge System and governance
systems have to cope with faster change in the future. Thus the systems of knowledge
generation need to reform with quite some speed.

The combined challenges of global food security and climate change put a renewed
emphasis on the need for continuous agricultural research, at EU and national levels,
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for example on development of crops, varieties and herds better adapted to future
conditions, and supported by continued research with specific objectives for different
regions and different production systems. Joint Programming provides an opportunity
to review the balance among thematic priorities.
6.

A joint programming initiative in this area will send a strong signal of support to
international programs such as the “Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
Challenge Program” (Climate Change Challenge Program, CCCP) which unites the
complementary strengths of the CGIAR system and the Earth System Science
Partnership (ESSP), and their respective partners, to address the most pressing and
complex challenge to food security in the 21st century. This international program is
a response to accumulating evidence that the food security and livelihoods of hundreds
of millions of people who depend on small-scale agriculture are under significant
threat from climate change. The goal of the CCCP is to overcome the additional
threats posed by a changing climate on attaining food security, enhancing livelihoods
and improving environmental management.

Solutions cannot be adopted through the EU Framework Programme because in this
context we are addressing a long-lasting, large-base research endeavour, greatly
affected by site specificity that characterizes agroecosystems and their management
practices. National Programmes provide a convenient site for this research, although
joint programming is required to magnify the results and avoid current duplications.
In the international arena these issues have been addressed at regional scale by
countries like the USA and Australia, through agencies such as the USDA ARS and
the CSIRO.
PRELIMINARY SUGGESTIONS
IMPLEMENTATION OF JPI
CONCERNING
THE
GOVERNANCE
AND
Governing Board (GB) – comprising one senior representative of each Member State
contractor, the GB will be responsible for the political and strategic orientation of the
initiative. Meets at least once per year, chaired by the coordinator.
Executive Committee (ExC) – in charge of operational and day-to-day management of the
initiative, made up of leaders of each work package activity, chaired by the coordinator.
Meets at least twice per year.
Coodinator will be responsible for delivering tasks defined by the EU Contract and the
Consortium Agreement, and will serve as the intermediary between the European
Commission and the consortium. The Coordinator will lead a JPI Management Office where
a project manager and administration will be based.
Advisory Boards can be set up for example on issues such as Intellectual Property, a
Scientific Group, a Stakeholder Group and a Communications Group.
15
Property Use
Committee
JPI Governing Board
One representative
from each member state
partner
Ethical
Committee
European and
international Advisory
Board
International leading scientists
Representativess of :
- Impact and Adaptation
Steering Group (IASG)
- External EU Policy
- Intergovernemental
Panel
on
Climate
Change (IPCC)
- Global Climate Change
Alliance (GCCA)
- CGIAR : Challenge
Programme sur le
changement
Climatique
- European
Forest
Institut (EFI)
- AGRINATURA
- Météo
France
Internationale
- MET Office (UK)
- Postdam Institut for
Climate
Impact
Research (PIK)
Representatives of European
projects :
- ADAM
- AMMA
- ENSEMBLES…
-
JPI Executive Committee
JPI
Management
Office
Coordinator
Foresight
Research
programmati
on
Research
funding
Joint
Research
Evaluation
Vulnerability
Adaptation
WG
1
WG
2
WG
3
WG
4
WG
5
WG
6
Research
Impact
Assessment
Spreading
knowledge
Mitigation
WG
7
WG 8
WG
9
WP X
WP
N
Partner Y
Partner 1
Partner 2
Other
Partner X
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Contribution of agriculture and forestry to the adaptation to climate change
Draft for the submission of a topic proposal for the Joint Planning Initiative (JPI)
by one or more GPC members
1.
Topic for the Joint Programme Planning Initiative
“Contribution of agriculture and forestry to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
and the adaptation to climate change”
2.
Proposing GPC member(s) or national stakeholder
Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection
Division 123
Rochusstr. 1
53123 Bonn
++49-228-995293397
e-mail: [email protected]
3.
Objectives
It is an agreed objective of the EU to restrict the increase in the global temperature to a
maximum of 2°C as compared with pre-industrial levels. A higher increase is likely to
lead to increasing food and water shortages, extreme weather events and a
significantly greater destruction of unique ecosystems and important ecosystem
services.
Global warming can in the future lead to more droughts and thus to considerably
reduced agricultural production in the long term. In the face of the rapidly rising global
population, changed dietary habits in emerging countries accompanied by a
significantly increased demand for food, including an expected doubling of the
demand for meat and milk products by 2050 and a shortage of land, water and
biodiversity, it becomes evident that reducing the increase in the global temperature to
a maximum of 2°C requires considerable efforts of all economic sectors.
Agriculture plays a particular role in three aspects: Firstly, the share of agriculture in
global greenhouse gas emissions amounts to 15%. Secondly, the agricultural sector is
extremely affected by climate change because of its climate-dependent production.
Thirdly, agriculture can make important contributions to climate protection, e.g. by
replacing fossil energy resources with biomass or by accumulating carbon through
adapted management practices.
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It is important in this context that the agricultural sector not only adapts to the
expected climate change but also contributes as much as possible to the mitigation of
greenhouse gas emissions. Research plays a decisive role in coping with these new
challenges. Rapid action is absolutely necessary to ensure the availability of food all
over the world which can also contribute to avoid global conflicts in this regard. In
view of the expected climate change and the increasing shortage of resources (such as
soil, water, biodiversity, energy), alternatives must be developed to be able to quickly
and effectively deal with these complex challenges. This must be based on increased
research efforts at international and national level as well as on the better integration
and coordination of research programmes in order to get more output from the same
input.
Research must be aimed at determining – through an integrated examination of
economic efficiency, ecological aspects and social expectations – concrete adaptation
measures and reduction potentials in agriculture and forestry in line with a sustainable
increase in food and biomass production.
4.
Research issues to be addressed
The close relationship between climate change, the increasing shortage of resources
and the rising need for food and energy as well as other plant-based raw materials
requires overarching research approaches that examine adaptation and reduction
potentials on varying scales, from the field to the region.
The agricultural sector can contribute to that although its contribution must vary
depending on the region.
Some particularly important research topics are:
- As a consequence of climate change, extreme weather situations are to be expected
-
more frequently and will not only have an influence on farmers’ risks but also on
food security in general. Improved simulation models on varying scales are
required to assist farmers in their crop planning.
A better understanding of the important ecosystem functions as a prerequisite for
sustainable farming systems.
The expected climate change will lead to a shifting of the agro-ecological
production zones in Europe which will also have an impact on pests, diseases and
invasive species. The consequences of these changes for the different cropping
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systems must be better understood so that the relevant adaptations can be made as
soon as possible. It is important in this context that climate changes are monitored
and the observations evaluated in order to improve the informative value of
models.
The following scientifically-based recommendations can be developed on this basis.
These could then be specifically implemented by national research promotion
measures:
- Recommendations for the development of less energy-intensive, more adaptable
and sustainable production and processing systems.
- Recommendations for the development of more climate-friendly animal
production and husbandry systems,
-
-
Recommendations for measures with regard to the exploitation of possible
potentials to increase the efficiency of the means of production used with a view to
producing “more with less” (e.g. fertiliser, water),
Recommendations for the development of cropping systems that allows a more
efficient use of increasingly scarce global resources (e.g. water) and a more
economical use of fertilisers and pesticides, for example. This includes soilpreserving cropping methods (such as mulching or no-plough soil tillage) to allow
an accumulation of carbon in the soil. More robust plant species that are better
adapted to heat and drought stress are required at the same time. An increase in
plant and animal productivity makes an important contribution to the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions per unit produced. In addition, a broader range of arable
crops can also contribute to the elasticity (resilience) of production systems under
the changed conditions that climate change is expected to bring about. This would
represent an important contribution to biodiversity and important ecosystem
functions.
The Joint Programme Planning will, in the end, draw up important recommendations
for the development of technological innovations which could then be implemented
through national research and development activities on the basis of the relevant sitespecific conditions. Technological innovations are regarded as a key factor in the
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture.
There is a considerable need for research in all areas, both with regard to adapting the
agricultural sector to the expected climate change and exploiting the reduction
potentials in the entire value-added chain. The following areas are of particular
importance in this context:
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-
-
5.
The creation of models on varying scales is mainly aimed at limiting uncertainties
and improving predictions.
Based on this modelling, concrete adaptation and reduction packages can then be
developed at the lowest level through national measures which will enable farmers
in various regions to adapt to changes and reduce their specific emissions.
And finally, greenhouse gas emissions must be monitored to be able to control
whether reduction targets are met.
Value-added, advantages and effects
Such a transboundary approach for a joint research programme initiative would help
- reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. This would be an important
contribution towards ensuring compliance with the EU obligations within the
framework of international agreements.
- The decision-makers would be able to rely on significantly broader and sounder
data material for policy-making.
- The limited national research capacities and funds could be used much more
efficiently to the advantage of all parties involved.
- In addition, Europe would be able to contribute more visibly and powerfully to
international/global research programmes.
-
-
-
The joint programme initiative is in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity:
The programme planning determines important research activities at European
level on the modelling and monitoring of the effects of climate change and jointly
supports scientifically-based recommendations on the reduction and adaptation
potentials in agriculture. The research and development activities concerning the
development of technological innovations based thereon, on the other hand, are
supported by measures at national level depending on the site-specific conditions.
With this division of labour, such a programme initiative would allow quicker
results and breakthroughs in the development of sustainable farming systems,
improve the adaptation of agricultural ecosystems to the expected climate change
and reduce farmers’ risks.
This web of interaction between European and national initiatives could also
accelerate technological innovations to increase the productivity and efficiency of
the means of production used and, in addition, improve not only the
competitiveness of European farmers but also regional and global food security.
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Climate and health
Objectives:
(1) Development / improvement of surveillance systems to assess the implications of future
climate change on health
(2) Improvement of our ability to predict changes and implications
(3) Improvement of health care with a view to future climate change and extreme weather
events in Europe
Problems / proposed solutions:
In order to be able to identify concrete health risks at an early stage and initiate suitable
countermeasures and information campaigns, more research into the numerous and complex
links between the changing climatic conditions and human health is needed. Climate change
can be expected to affect both infectious diseases and non-infectious diseases, such as
cardiovascular diseases, allergies, and injuries resulting from extreme weather events.
With respect to infectious diseases, there is a special need for action and research in the areas
of surveillance, epidemiology, modelling and public health, vector monitoring, and vector
competence in order to improve the predictability of the spread dynamics of potential
changes. For example, more systematic and regular analyses need to be carried out in all
potential distribution areas to be able to conduct a targeted risk assessment of vector spread
dynamics. The envisaged cooperation at a European level offers excellent opportunities to
detect and analyse significant changes in geographical distribution and temporal trends at an
early stage. This applies to indigenous infectious agents that are climate-sensitive and to new
or increasingly imported agents.
Furthermore, the development of drugs, particularly vaccines, is expected to pose great
challenges that can best be met through coordinated research and development activities.
As for the consequences of climate change on non-infectious diseases, particularly among
vulnerable population groups, numerous additional factors need to be taken into account,
including changed living and environmental conditions, changed attitudes to health, and
health care. So far, there is not enough reliable data to be able to issue evidence-based
recommendations for adaptation strategies.
Reasons for joint action:
This is a complex topic that affects people across different countries – infectious diseases do
not stop at national borders. That is why joint efforts by all researchers working in this field in
Europe are both appropriate and necessary.
A joint programming initiative in the area of climate and health could pool existing research
capacities in Europe, make optimal use of synergies and thus increase our ability to adapt to
future climate changes and their effects on people’s health.
21
Strategic importance:
Europe would be able to address an important aspect of its health care – the adaptation to
future changes in the climate – in a forward-looking and responsible way. The surveillance
systems that are to be developed would also be transferable to other world regions. In this
way, Europe would take on global responsibility and make a valuable contribution to
improving global adaptability to future climate changes. The Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urgently demands a solution strategy in
this area.
Potential participants in Europe:
WHO
DE:
Robert Koch Institute, various institutes of the MPG, WGL and HGF as well as of
universities, German Meteorological Service (among others)
FR:
National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Institute Pasteur (among others)
BE:
Institute of Tropical Medicine (ITM), Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences
(RBINS) (among others)
AT:
Medical University of Vienna, Institute for Environmental Hygiene (among others)
PT:
Instituto Dr. Ricardo Jorge (among others)
SE:
Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI), Swedish Environmental Protection Agency
(among others)
Time frame for this JPI: 2010 to 2019
22
More reliable climate simulations
Proposal for a “Joint Programming Initiative”
Subject:
More reliable climate simulations – a High-Tech Strategy approach for recording clouds
correctly and taking them into account
Objectives:
(4) Use of the latest European-funded monitoring technologies and supercomputer capacities
to reduce the error potential of clouds in climate models,
(5) As a result: improvement of the accuracy of climate models by 30 to 50%, both for global
and for regional forecasts
(6) Improvement of the predictive capabilities of climate models with regard to the
occurrence of exteme events
(7) Improvement of our knowledge of climate development and therefore our adaptability to
future climate changes and extreme events, not just in Europe, but across the world
Problems / proposed solutions:
Approximately 60% of the earth is covered by clouds. They strongly affect the earth's
radiation and energy balance and consequently its climate. In addition, clouds have a
significant and direct effect on the water balance and temperature, and thus on people's
quality of life. Nonetheless, the characterization of sky cover in climate models and of its
reaction to human-induced global warming remains very unreliable. The inadquate
representation of clouds in climate models is the main reason why it has not been possible to
significantly reduce the spread (= degree of uncertainty) of +/- 50% in climate scenarios and
projections for more than 10 years.
We urgently need to reduce the error potential of clouds in climate models to improve the
quality and predictive capabilities of such models. This is the only way to foresee the extent
and course of future changes in the climate. It is also the only way in which we can ensure
that model results can be used as the basis for concrete, forward-looking adaptation measures.
There are two reasons why clouds are not taken into account sufficiently. On the one hand,
clouds can only be delineated (“parameterized”) very roughly owing to insufficient computer
and storage capacities and the resulting inadequate spatial resolution of the models. On the
other hand, there is a lack of adequate technological measuring methods that can resolve the
“uncertainty principle” between cloud cover and the microphysical properties of clouds on a
global scale. In both areas – computing capacity and measuring methods at a global and
microscopic level – there have been and will be advances in the foreseeable future, not least
as a result of investments from Europe in infrastructure, measuring devices and instruments.
The ESA Earth Explorer mission EarthCARE, which is to take place in 2012/2013, is a
particularly striking example. It will for the first time enable the active and passive
measurement of clouds and their microphysical properties in high spatial resolution from a
satellite platform. This will create the prerequisites for developing better models and
algorithms for clouds with the help of extensive research on in-situ platforms, aeroplanes and
satellites and for incorporating them in global circulation models and thus also in climate
models.
23
Reasons for joint action:
Europe has the expertise and the instruments to be able to achieve this significant
breakthrough. It is a complex problem that can only be solved in the medium term. Joint
efforts by all researchers working in this field in Europe are necessary. In coming years,
outstanding – and internationally unparalleled – infrastructures will be available, and these
should be used in a concerted effort. They include the above-mentioned ESA research mission
EarthCARE and other measurement platforms, such as the German Aerospace Center’s
research aeroplane HALO, the cloud simulator LACIS at the Institute for Tropospheric
Research in Leipzig, the aerosol and cloud chamber AIDA at the Karlsruhe Institute of
Technology, and the international experiment CLOUD to investigate the influence of galactic
cosmic rays on aerosol and cloud formation, which is already underway at CERN and in
which Germany is actively participating. At the same time, the existing HPC capacities for
climate research in Europe could be ideally linked to each other with the use of the latest
software technologies (such as GRID) to be able to make the best possible use of available
computing resources.
Strategic importance:
With this concerted approach, Europe could contribute significantly to the IPCC and the
UNFCCC process. In particular, Europe could make a valuable and globally effective
contribution to improving our adaptability to future climate change.
Potential participants in Europe:
ECMWF
DE: various institutes of the MPG, WGL and HGF as well as of universities, German
Meteorological Service, German Climate Computing Centre (among others)
FR: various institutes of the CNRS and of universities (e.g. LMD, LOA, LSCE, L.a.M.P.,
LGGE)
UK: Hadley Centre (among others)
and other national research institutions and international consortia, such as CLOUD
Research efforts under this approach should be linked to other suitable institutional and
European approaches that aim to bring together existing expertise in the area of atmospheric
research to form virtual institutes.
Time frame for this JPI: 2010 to 2019
Leadership: DE (potentially)
24