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CLIMATE CHANGE CLUSTER Up to now, 18 Members States participated to the cluster « Climate Change » and exchanged informations and proposals. Five of them send basic proposals. Austria provided a general paper covering all the aspects of Climate Change Impacts which can be taken as a main frame for joint programming actions in this cluster, or in other words as an umbrella under which particular proposals can be received. France, United Kingdom and Italy have built a joint proposal on « Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change ». This proposal was already discussed at the level of research organizations, interested to participate. Many other member States declared (but very recently) their interest for this proposal which in consequence could require further concertations and discussions between research organizations. Germany send a proposal on “Contribution of agriculture and forestry to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation to climate change”, very close to the above proposal and which will certainly be merged with it, but in the same time, the german contribution introduce some aspects that again require additionnal concertation between research organizations. Germany provided also two other “initial proposals”, one on impacts of Climate Change on human Health, rising research questions on possible impacts of CC on infectious and non infectious diseases, another one on High-Tech Strategy approach for recording clouds correctly and taking them into account, in order to make climate simulations more reliable. In the following pages, the High Level Group will find these contributions and proposals, as they are, on October 10th. Climate Change impacts (AU) page 2 Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FR-UK-IT) page 8 Contribution of agriculture and forestry to the adaptation to climate change (DE) page 18 Climate Change on human Health (DE) page 23 High-Tech Strategy approach for recording clouds correctly and taking them into account (DE) page 25 For the moment, there is one mature proposal on “Agriculture, Food security and Climate Change”, for which the acceptation by the HLG and the CPG Secretariat is waited. There are also “pre-mature” proposals, for which further concertations between Member States and between research organizations are necessary. 1 AUSTRIA 1. Theme for the Joint Programming Initiative: CLIMATE CHANGE A broad spectrum of measures are currently undertaken to reduce the impact of climate change. However climate change is already ongoing and regions have to cope with different consequences due to this change. The understanding of these change processes, their regional dependencies, and the consequences of climate change especially on the basic infrastructure (water supply, energy demand, transport infrastructure, etc.) is essential to prepare tomorrow’s innovation systems and infrastructure. The impacts of these changes on society and economy as well as on nature have to be investigated to properly address future demands and boundary conditions of society, industry and policy. The key systems affected by climate change are A. Nature and ecology Water systems, Animal and plant biodiversity, Soil ecosystems (land use), Pollution, ... Society and economy Energy use and supply, Transportation infrastructure, Agriculture and forestry, Human Health, Risks induced by extreme events (e.g. floods, landslides, forest fires, etc.), ... B. These systems are highly related to each other and new approaches are required to develop new solutions to cope with the consequences of climate change without affecting our living standard and quality of life: The water system is one of the most affected systems by climate change. Temperature rise leads to increased water demand, storms and heavy rain requires adapted sewerage systems – in any case new water management concepts have to be in place to secure both water quality and our water demand and protect people from negative consequences. The impact of climate change – water shortage and temperature increase – has severe consequences for microorganisms, plants, animals, and therefore also society. This may lead to shifts in plant and animal biodiversity in terrestrial and water ecosystems as a major consequence and has significant impact on our biological environment, the availability of bio-resources and even our healthcare system (e.g. animal borne diseases e.g. Malaria). Comprehensive investigations of these shifts are required to be able to properly address these changes. Climate change may lead to changes in the fertility of the soil ecosystems. New approaches to secure sustainable productivity of agricultural resources are required. Climate change may lead to changes in the bioavailability and remobilisation processes of pollutants (e.g. mercury, organ toxicants, etc.) in soils and fresh water 2 ecosystems. Long term monitoring studies are required to provide sound basis for appropriate measures. 2. Climate change leads to an increased energy demand for heating and cooling. This leads to the demand for new building concepts that are energetically self-sustaining and for new heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems that are highly energy efficient. New energy resources based on biological systems may provide a new basis to cover this increased energy demand. Extreme weather events cause a higher risk for transportation infrastructure. Ascending number of floods and landslides will seriously harm the infrastructure itself and hinder the transportation system requiring adapted maintenance concepts to guarantee safety and reliability of the infrastructure network. Changing weather conditions (especially frequently heavy rain) will additionally directly affect transportation safety. Furthermore infrastructure requirements (especially for the newly built) have to meet the concerns apposed by climate change. Agriculture and forestry are highly exposed to climate change since they directly depend on climatic conditions. Impacts comprise biotic disturbances (pests, weeds, and diseases), and implications for crop production, livestock and food security. The climate change induced alterations of the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamics of pathogenic agents requires new models and concepts for detection of diseases, appropriate medication and protection measures of humans. Furthermore the costs of such climate related health impacts have to be assessed. Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events (e.g. floods, landslides, forest fires, droughts, etc.). This leads to increased risks for human health and goods and chattels. Significant differences between current and future climate can be expected at regional scale. Especially sensitive regions, like the mountain regions (e.g. the Alps, and the Carpathians), are affected from climate change due to its complex terrain dynamics. The impact of the induced changes on biodiversity, the water system or the social system can be investigated using this region as test case. Proposing GPC member/members Name, institution, e-mail and telephone 3. Objectives Climate changes respectively the side effects coming along with climate change highly influence our daily life. Key objectives are therefore the investigation of these different factors to understand their relevance, impact and dependencies, the reduction of the climate change consequences to maintain our quality of life, as well as the development of RTI-policy measures that support the transformation to sustainable innovation systems. The objectives that have to be met comprise: Strengthen climate observations, maintain long term records and develop regional models. Securing both water quality and water supply and adapting water management concepts including hydropower generation where relevant that are better suited for “new” climate conditions. 3 4. Understanding shifts in animal and plant biodiversity and preparing appropriate interventions. Planning new management concepts for soil, agriculture and forestry. Improving understanding of sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon and other green house gases. Long term monitoring of bioavailability and remobilisation processes of pollutants. Providing concepts and technological solutions for energy generation, transmission and use as well as concepts for construction of buildings that satisfy the demand for heating and cooling with less input of primary energy and less emissions of greenhouse gases. Integration of renewable energy resources in energy end use not only in buildings, cities and municipalities but also in the industry sector. Investigation of the transportation infrastructure to provide a safe and reliable infrastructure also under changing conditions. Determining how, and to what degree, terrestrial agro-ecosystems can be managed to increase the delivery of food, feed, fibre and other services. Developing methods to investigate which health impacts and to what extent are attributable to climate change and developing measures to cope with these impacts. Assessing the impacts of extreme events as well as the socio economic implications of adaption to and mitigation of these extremes. Evaluation of the impacts on innovation systems and RTI-policy to develop measures for transforming innovation systems to sustainable ones. Research questions being addressed A broad spectrum of research questions has to be covered to meet the defined objectives. Compared to conventional research approaches this initiative applies a multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder approach to address the research challenges with the required complexity: What are the interactive affects of changes in CO2 climate and biogeochemistry on the terrestrial Carbon cycle and on food and fibre production? What are reasonable scenarios of the future distribution, structure and productivity of both managed and unmanaged ecosystems based on changes in land use, disturbance regimes and climate? How will climate change alter biotic diversity and what are the ecosystem consequences? How will climate change alter biotic interactions with the hydrologic cycle and surface energy balance? Which protection, conservation and restoration measures of microorganisms, plants and animals are required and how can they be implemented effectively? How will climate change affect biotic controls over transport of water nutrients, pollutants and materials from land to fresh water ecosystems? How to adapt our water management concepts? What are the impacts of climate change and human activities on biodiversity and ecosystem services in particular in mountain regions? How to realise energy efficient buildings, gadgets, industrial processes, etc., widerange deployment of renewables together with intelligent grid integration where relevant, with special focus on heat from renewables and heat storage? How to integrate new energy resources (e.g. based on microorganisms or plants) in the infrastructure (e.g. facades of buildings, etc.) 4 5. How to adapt transportation infrastructure management concepts and infrastructure properties to guarantee a safe and reliable transportation infrastructure under changing climatic conditions. How can palaeontologic records help to improve our knowledge on climate history (Holocene) and to develop better regional models for future climate scenarios? Which RTI-policy strategies and measures are required to transform our innovation systems to sustainable ones? Which economic consequences occur, especially in sensitive regions and which measures have to be taken to adapt our industry and economy to maintain economic wealth? Added-value, benefits and impact Joint Programming offers the possibility to address climate change and its consequences with a clear focus on the basic infrastructure (water, energy, transportation, ecosystems, biological resources, health care, etc.) on a cross national level. The complex relationships between the different research areas can be taken into consideration and benefits can be obtained by utilising enabling technologies in different research areas (nano sensors, bio energy, bio monitoring, water runoff models, etc.). Especially the transformation process of the Alpine Region into a sustainable development can act as a test case and new insights could accelerate this transformation process and overcome existing barriers. The results can be taken as best practice models for other European regions, which are dominated by complex terrain dynamics. The development of technologies and systems that reduce the impact of climate change on highly important systems is essential for maintaining quality of life of people and providing a sound basis for innovative products and services and a competitive industry and research. 6. Suggestions for a design of a JPI in Climate Change The Joint Programme Initiative is presently in the phase of strategy and process development. It seems therefore the right time to debate also possible programme designs and procedures and their pros and cons. Regarding the JPI in climate change, there may be a danger of getting entangled in differing national interests when using a sectoral or systems approach due to the large diversity of national and regional climate change problems. If we take e.g. the Water-Cycle, problems of climate change differ widely between various European regions and countries. This reality makes it difficult to find a common workable research agenda, e.g. between the Mediterranean region and North-Western Europe. It may therefore be wise to think a-priori about possible JPI designs for climate change, which allow for common strategies, a clear structure and joint activities. Three different suggestions for a potential successful JPI in Climate Change are described below: Design suggestion 1: focus only on one specific and clearly defined theme that is relevant for all of Europe. This is done e.g. for Alzheimer disease; for Climate Change, such themes would need to be identified. Design suggestion 2: design the JPI for climate change along geographic or regional areas and goals. Examples for such a design could be water scarcity in the 5 Mediterranean vs. flood management in North-Western Europe; forest fire management in the Mediterranean vs. forest species management in Northern Europe; efficient irrigation systems in the Mediterranean vs. changes for agriculture in Northern Europe. One could define a number of such topics. The frame of the JPI would need to be flexible enough for allowing such an approach. Design suggestion 3: focus on joint political agreements in climate change as a red thread for the JPI. Examples for this can include the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the Water Framework Direction (WFD) or many other European policies related to Climate Change, biodiversity, natural protection and management or infrastructures. 6 AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE (FR-UK-IT) This proposal is a framework to discuss with the members states who want to participate in a joint programming initiative in the area of agriculture addressing climate change and food security research questions. It encompasses earlier proposals from France and the UK, and combines suggested activities on agriculture and food security, and agriculture and climate change, following discussions at the European Agricultural Research Initiative (EURAGRI) in Madrid 27-30 September 2009. 1. Theme and area of the Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) European and global challenge For many key parameters, the climate system is already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which our society and economy have developed and thrived. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to extreme climatic events and to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts (IPCC, 2007, IARU congress, 2009). Agriculture and forestry are highly exposed to climate change since they directly depend on climatic conditions. The variability of crop yields has already increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, such as the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007 in Europe. During the summer of 2003, temperatures were up to 6°C above long-term means, and precipitation deficits up to 300 mm. Crop yields were reduced by 20-36 % in regions affected, leading to uninsured economic losses for the agriculture sector in the European Union which were estimated at 36 billion Euros (IPCC, 2007). Global demand for food is expected to increase by 50% by 2030 and to double by 2050, due to population growth, urbanisation and increasing affluence in parts of the developing world (FAO, 2008). The world’s population is projected to increase from 6 billion to 9 billion by 2050. Food supply must increase sustainably to meet this demand, and is made more complicated by climate change. Global climate change can be expected to threaten food production and its supply, for example through changing patterns of rainfall, increasing incidence of extreme weather and changing distribution of diseases and their vectors. Global stocks of some staple foods have declined, and spikes in food prices (such as those seen during 2008) may become more frequent if rising demand cannot be consistently matched by supply. The agricultural sector of tropical and sub-tropical countries, particularly in SubSaharan Africa, is extremely fragile and vulnerable to climate change. Any major food crisis in these regions will directly and indirectly impact on Europe and it is therefore in its interest to work with these regions on preventive and adaptive measures. In fact, current trends towards relative social and political stability in parts of SSA, representing joint economic opportunities for Europe, could be reversed by negative impacts of climate change on agriculture. This threat will be amplified by increasing 7 competition between food and (bio)energy production objectives if no innovative and coherent solutions are found. By the late 21st century, plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction. A combination of the rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles is projected to lead to a large decline in European biodiversity. We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector (crops, livestock, fisheries, forests, biomass, and commodities)1: - to feed the world - to enhance rural livelihoods - to stimulate economic growth This proposal therefore focuses on the activities for joint action to address the combined challenges of food security against the continuous threat brought by various scenarios of climate change: - we need to act now to secure safe, nutritious and affordable food for the future - we need to mobilise funding and coordination across the EU agri-food research sector now in order to have the science and skilled scientists to underpin sustainable food production for the future - it takes 10 years to get plant science from lab bench to crop in field - this is a preventable crisis – and research is going to be crucial in providing the answers - EU research has a key role to play – drawing on world leading expertise and facilities in plant and microbial sciences. Policy relevant focus Climate change in relation with energy security has been considered by G8 as the most important issue to be tackled in the strategic perspective of ensuring global sustainability, while addressing the economic and financial crisis2. The EU White Paper3 'Adapting to climate change' gives an overview on the climate change impacts on agriculture and lays out a European framework for action to improve Europe's resilience to climate change, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation into all key European policies and enhance co-operation at all levels of governance. Climate change and Food Security were identified as interlinked challenges for the future research agricultural agenda by the Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR4). SCAR recognised a significant gap in the coordination of relevant research at European level. 1 Bob Watson, Chief Scientific advisor, UK DEFRA, Director of the International Assessment of Agricultural Science and technology for Development (IAASTD). 2 G8 3 Commission staff working document accompanying the White Paper “Adapting to climate change : Toward a European framework for action” COM(2009) 147. 4 SCAR conclusions following the 2nd SCAR-Foresight (2006-2009) 8 A recent Commission Communication on European agricultural research elaborates on the needs and directions for EU climate change research and innovation, including those for the agriculture sector. In addition, as rural areas are exposed to wider climatic risks and as significant parts of rural Europe are characterised by economic multifunctionality, an integrated understanding of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, forestry, land use and rural economies and societies is important. The agriculture, forestry and land use sector can play an important role in mitigating climate change via carbon sequestration in soils, bioenergy production and to a lesser extent by reducing N2O and CH4 emissions (IPCC AR4 WG3 2007, UNFCCC 2008). By 2010, emissions from European agriculture would be 16% below their 1990 level, because of recent Common Agricultural Policy reforms, water policies and other factors5. However, there are also indirect greenhouse gas emissions involved by agriculture, livestock and forestry both from inputs, transport, land use change and downstream (e.g. food processing) activities. The global livestock generates directly or indirectly 18 % of global greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalents (Livestock’s Long Shadow, LEAD, FAO, 2006). A substantial increase of the European research into climate change impacts and adaptation is one of the recommendations made by the European Economic and Social Committee6 7. Research has to answer the question how the growing demand for food, bio-energy and bio-fuels can be met simultaneously in a world with shrinking water and land resources, increasing soil degradation and under accelerated global warming all impairing on land productivity. Adaptation measures can be taken at national, regional and local levels. Because adaptation is a trans-boundary issue, countries bordering the EU, as well as key regions outside Europe notably in SSA, will also be considered and adaptation will be integrated in all relevant external policies. The international aspects of adaptation are addressed in the policy paper “Toward a Comprehensive Climate Change Agreement in Copenhagen”8. It will be extremely difficult to balance food deficits in one part of the world with food surpluses in another, unless major adaptation investments are made soon to foster the comparative advantage of affected regions in appropriate agricultural sectors. These investments may include trade policy and also the generation of innovative technical and economic opportunities, well beyond conservative measures, such as agricultural breakthrough technologies able to face environmental transformations induced by climate change. Mariann Fischer Boel, Farming’s role in mitigating climate change, Conference on “Adapting to Climate Change – Brussels, 3 July 2007. 6 COM (2009) 147 final 7 C 120/38, Official Journal of the European Union, May, 2008.( on the “Green Paper from the Commission to the Cuncil, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee of the Regions: Adapting to climate change in Europe – Options for EU action) 8 http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm 5 9 Joint programming on adaptation to and mitigation of climate change in the agriculture, forestry and land use sector will integrate research on climatic trends with extreme events, natural sciences with social sciences, research with actual policy and management, ecosystems with products and services, production with health, food security and food quality issues. 2. Proposing GPC members To add Current collaborations with USA, Canada, China, India, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand and African and Asian countries may allow for expanded activities. 3. Objectives Much work is already conducted at EU, national and regional level hence a key objective for joint programming is to integrate relevant approaches and create a vision and framework for future activity. This should include issues including: The size and dimensions of the problem require a long-lasting and large base research endeavour. The overarching objective is to integrate adaptation, mitigation and food security in the agriculture, forestry and land use sector. Measures providing co-benefits in terms of reducing emissions and increasing resilience of farming, forestry and biodiversity need to be indentified and promoted. Scientific challenge: - i) increase the delivery of food security, feed, fiber and other services in an altered and more variable climate - ii) contribute to carbon sequestration, fossil fuel energy substitution and mitigation of N2O and CH4 emissions. A major knowledge objective concerns the development of a systemic understanding, integrating a large range of disciplines from climatology, to ecology, biology, agronomy, forestry and socio-economy, through plant, soil and animal sciences, that will be strongly connected around a central spine of agro-ecological modelling. Adapting planning in agriculture cannot only rely on knowledge about global climate patterns, but needs detailed information on regional impacts and meaningful assessment of the adaptive options and their feasibility at local and farm level. A cost-benefit analysis of short- and long-term adaptation/mitigation strategies will be addressed taking into account uncertainties to the projections of climate change and impacts. 10 4. Research questions being addressed Joint Programming has the potential to induce a quantum leap in defining and delivering European Research to meet the challenges of enhancing both food production and environmental benefits while minimising environmental harm. There is much potential in integrating on a very large scale two major components:, i) developing and implementing specific solutions at the systems and policy levels, ii) developing highly innovative breakthrough technologies. 4.1 Developing and implementing specific solutions at the systems and policy levels This research area will principally have applied orientation and should yield workable adaptation options, from the production systems to macro-economics, sectorial, food security and environmental policies. Designing integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies Adaptation options should limit negative impacts and take advantage of potential opportunities (e.g., elevated atmospheric CO2, warmer climate at high latitudes, increased rainfall in areas where this will happen). Moreover, adaptive changes in production systems and the potential for system migration or transformation will be assessed based on costbenefit approaches taking into account environmental constraints, land and labor requirements, demands for food and non-food products and biodiversity issues. This research will also lead to the design of novel cropping, livestock and forestry systems that are adapted to the unchartered climatic and atmospheric conditions of the end of this century. This research might include: Mapping regional vulnerabilities for policy support. There is currently no understanding of the systemic impacts of climate variability and change on rural landscapes and on regions in Europe, the Mediterranean and other regions that are key to European interests, notably in SSA. Research will address these issues by developing integrated GIS tools providing decision support for local, regional, national and European planning and policies. This approach will help prioritizing regions and systems for the adaptations and mitigation strategies to be applied. Sectoral policies concerning e.g. land use, nature and biodiversity conservation, water and irrigation, greenhouse gas emissions and soil quality (e.g. soil carbon sequestration) will also benefit from this approach. Environmental impact: food production and the supply chain can have wide-ranging positive and negative impacts on the environment. Negative impacts include escalating water and land use, soil erosion and degradation through loss of fertility or desertification, loss of biodiversity, and intensive use of energy (for production, notably for fertiliser manufacture, and for supply, especially in transport and refrigeration) with associated greenhouse gas emissions. By contrast, agricultural land can manage water quality and flood risks and act as habitats for wildlife, while agricultural soils are major carbon sinks. Negative environmental impacts will need to be minimised, particularly as the demand for food rises and the climate changes. Research will also lead to the design of novel cropping and livestock systems that are 11 also adapted to the uncharted climatic and atmospheric conditions of the end of this century. Pests and diseases present further challenges to the production and supply of food – from crops and from farmed animals and aquaculture. Threats include new and emerging pests and diseases, and the spread of existing ones to new regions because of climate change. Increased use of chemical inputs to address these problems will be limited by regulatory requirements, the need to avoid potential adverse environmental impacts, and the greater costs of producing fertilisers and pesticides because of rising energy prices. Exploitation of natural resistance to pests and diseases, and tolerance of environmental stresses, will be important for sustainably increasing yields or for expanding the area that can be used for agricultural production under adverse or variable conditions. Efficiency of resource use: while land and water in particular will become increasingly scarce, it will also be important to improve the efficiency with which other resources are utilised, including nitrogen, energy and other inputs to agriculture and all stages of the food supply chain. Reducing waste is a major challenge: at the same time as enhancing yields and improving efficiency, there is a pressing need to find new ways of reducing waste throughout the food supply chain. Post-harvest losses are estimated to be currently 40% worldwide, with waste occurring in storage, during transportation and processing, from the retail sector and by consumers. 4.2 Developing highly innovative breakthrough technologies. The shared vision developed through joint programming will include work on a roadmap of research and related activities which need to be delivered at EU level by participants to realise the challenges identified. Topics for consideration in such a roadmap will be identified by participants but might include: Crop production Research will be needed on crops for the EU and other temperate regions and also for the developing world. Research targets include: a. Enhancing crop productivity while maintaining quality and with optimised efficiency of resource use (water, nitrogen, other nutrients); reducing reliance on fertilisers whose production is heavily dependent on fossil fuels; making more efficient use of chemical inputs through precision application and controlled release. b. Major scientific challenges such as raising photosynthetic efficiency through engineering C4 metabolism, and introducing nitrogen fixation to cereals or other non-legume crops. c. Enhancing resistance to pests and diseases, and research on weed control. Advances will require improved knowledge of the biology and genetics of the host and pathogen or pest and (importantly) their interactions. d. Research to sustain effective use of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides in the face of evolution towards resistance. e. Enhancing tolerance of abiotic stresses (e.g., drought, salinity, flooding, ozone, UV, high and low extremes of temperature, especially at critical stages such as 12 f. g. h. i. j. k. flowering); research is needed especially on the effects of combinations of such stresses. Reducing post-harvest losses from pests and diseases. Exploiting the potential of genomics (of model plants, crops, microbes, pathogens, pests, beneficial organisms) – the pace is accelerating with advances in sequencing technologies. Mathematical and computational approaches – leading to improved ability to predict outcomes and provide tools for decision-making in managing agricultural systems using an integrated network of excellence centres for scenario model data integration and large scale observation and modelling infrastructures. Making best use of genetic diversity: to develop new cultivars of current crops and to explore the potential of new crops for adapting to the predicted climate, including rising carbon dioxide and temperature. Making more effective the transfer of knowledge from advances gained using model species into practical application in crops. Soil science/microbiology and root-soil interactions, including how to improve nutrient flows to support plant growth; also root diseases. Livestock production There are arguments on health and environmental grounds to reduce overall meat consumption in the western diet, but global demand for meat and dairy products is predicted to increase greatly. Research targets include: a. Identifying possible changes in processes that would help to reduce adverse impacts on the environment especially to greenhouse gas (methane, nitrous oxide) emissions from livestock and manures – using nutritional and genetic approaches to improve efficiency of production (conversion of plant biomass to meat) and to reduce resource inputs and waste. b. Managing the threat from and impact of animal diseases, including both current and newly emerging or exotic diseases, and spread of disease from and to wild animals. Risks from animal diseases are increasing with climate change and increased movement of animals and people. Effective surveillance, monitoring, prevention and treatment are all required. c. New zoonotic diseases are a particular threat, and EU-wide and global approaches to horizon scanning for potential new diseases are needed. d. Detection and treatment of sub-clinical diseases that can have major impact on productivity and welfare. e. Integrated approaches to reducing disease through genetic selection for immunity combined with vaccine development (where there may be opportunities for international sharing of effort), epidemiology and improved knowledge of hostpathogen interactions. f. Mathematical modelling will be important to enable prediction of disease outbreaks and to optimise interventions. g. Ensuring animal welfare under future climates (e.g., increasingly variable and extreme weather) and/or altered production methods: research needs include developing objective measures of well-being in animals. h. Animal breeding for improved yield and quality while maintaining appropriate welfare. 13 This research targets can be rooted on: Adaptation and mitigation ‘omics’. The recent advances in ‘omics’ research, interspecific hybridization, molecular marker-assisted breeding, transgenics, functional (agro) ecology and crop physiology to design and develop new genotypes for crop, tree and adaptations, morphology, phenology and yield traits. Mitigation technologies taking into account possible trade-offs and synergies with adaptation, biodiversity, soil and water resources. Adaptation biotechnologies. For example, Genomics based biotechnologies will help accelerating crop improvement for adaptation to changing climatic and hydrological environments. 5. Added-value, benefits and impact Joint Programming in this field is based on the conviction that sharing the burden in research to cope effectively and efficiently with the challenges presented would bring benefits to all involved in such an exercise. This was a major message from the SCAR Foresight Working Groups and a recent Commission Communication on agricultural research (ref). Bringing together the key research organisations and funders in Europe could enable a great leap forward in developing the concept of multifunctional and sustainable food production for different agro-ecological zones and regions within Europe and within other regions that are key to European interests, notably in Africa. In the context of the Common Agricultural Policy reform, agro-ecological measures will be of increasing economic importance. Agriculture, forestry and agri-business competitiveness will increasingly depend on the compatibility of this sectoral policy with climate change. The research undertaken will have a major role in avoiding food crises in the developing world, thereby reducing regional conflicts, refugees and migrations. It will also have human health impacts by improving the monitoring and understanding of zoonotic animal diseases. Most initiatives have been taken at national level to date, but a joint EU approach and research programming can maximise the effectiveness of national efforts, particularly in: i) sectors that are closely integrated at EU level such as agriculture, ii) crossboundary issues such as river basins and biodiversity management, iii) disadvantaged regions and regions most affected by climate change. These measures must be supported and strengthened by an integrated and coordinated approach at EU level. Therefore a Joint Programme should not ignore the diversity of European cropping, livestock, forestry, fisheries and integrated farming systems priorities: ‘Joint’ does not mean homogeneous, but coordinated. The EU is well placed to facilitate coordination and the exchange of best practice between Member States on agricultural production. The necessary adaptations/corrections in the Agricultural Knowledge System and governance systems have to cope with faster change in the future. Thus the systems of knowledge generation need to reform with quite some speed. The combined challenges of global food security and climate change put a renewed emphasis on the need for continuous agricultural research, at EU and national levels, 14 for example on development of crops, varieties and herds better adapted to future conditions, and supported by continued research with specific objectives for different regions and different production systems. Joint Programming provides an opportunity to review the balance among thematic priorities. 6. A joint programming initiative in this area will send a strong signal of support to international programs such as the “Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Challenge Program” (Climate Change Challenge Program, CCCP) which unites the complementary strengths of the CGIAR system and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), and their respective partners, to address the most pressing and complex challenge to food security in the 21st century. This international program is a response to accumulating evidence that the food security and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people who depend on small-scale agriculture are under significant threat from climate change. The goal of the CCCP is to overcome the additional threats posed by a changing climate on attaining food security, enhancing livelihoods and improving environmental management. Solutions cannot be adopted through the EU Framework Programme because in this context we are addressing a long-lasting, large-base research endeavour, greatly affected by site specificity that characterizes agroecosystems and their management practices. National Programmes provide a convenient site for this research, although joint programming is required to magnify the results and avoid current duplications. In the international arena these issues have been addressed at regional scale by countries like the USA and Australia, through agencies such as the USDA ARS and the CSIRO. PRELIMINARY SUGGESTIONS IMPLEMENTATION OF JPI CONCERNING THE GOVERNANCE AND Governing Board (GB) – comprising one senior representative of each Member State contractor, the GB will be responsible for the political and strategic orientation of the initiative. Meets at least once per year, chaired by the coordinator. Executive Committee (ExC) – in charge of operational and day-to-day management of the initiative, made up of leaders of each work package activity, chaired by the coordinator. Meets at least twice per year. Coodinator will be responsible for delivering tasks defined by the EU Contract and the Consortium Agreement, and will serve as the intermediary between the European Commission and the consortium. The Coordinator will lead a JPI Management Office where a project manager and administration will be based. Advisory Boards can be set up for example on issues such as Intellectual Property, a Scientific Group, a Stakeholder Group and a Communications Group. 15 Property Use Committee JPI Governing Board One representative from each member state partner Ethical Committee European and international Advisory Board International leading scientists Representativess of : - Impact and Adaptation Steering Group (IASG) - External EU Policy - Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) - CGIAR : Challenge Programme sur le changement Climatique - European Forest Institut (EFI) - AGRINATURA - Météo France Internationale - MET Office (UK) - Postdam Institut for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Representatives of European projects : - ADAM - AMMA - ENSEMBLES… - JPI Executive Committee JPI Management Office Coordinator Foresight Research programmati on Research funding Joint Research Evaluation Vulnerability Adaptation WG 1 WG 2 WG 3 WG 4 WG 5 WG 6 Research Impact Assessment Spreading knowledge Mitigation WG 7 WG 8 WG 9 WP X WP N Partner Y Partner 1 Partner 2 Other Partner X 16 Contribution of agriculture and forestry to the adaptation to climate change Draft for the submission of a topic proposal for the Joint Planning Initiative (JPI) by one or more GPC members 1. Topic for the Joint Programme Planning Initiative “Contribution of agriculture and forestry to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation to climate change” 2. Proposing GPC member(s) or national stakeholder Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection Division 123 Rochusstr. 1 53123 Bonn ++49-228-995293397 e-mail: [email protected] 3. Objectives It is an agreed objective of the EU to restrict the increase in the global temperature to a maximum of 2°C as compared with pre-industrial levels. A higher increase is likely to lead to increasing food and water shortages, extreme weather events and a significantly greater destruction of unique ecosystems and important ecosystem services. Global warming can in the future lead to more droughts and thus to considerably reduced agricultural production in the long term. In the face of the rapidly rising global population, changed dietary habits in emerging countries accompanied by a significantly increased demand for food, including an expected doubling of the demand for meat and milk products by 2050 and a shortage of land, water and biodiversity, it becomes evident that reducing the increase in the global temperature to a maximum of 2°C requires considerable efforts of all economic sectors. Agriculture plays a particular role in three aspects: Firstly, the share of agriculture in global greenhouse gas emissions amounts to 15%. Secondly, the agricultural sector is extremely affected by climate change because of its climate-dependent production. Thirdly, agriculture can make important contributions to climate protection, e.g. by replacing fossil energy resources with biomass or by accumulating carbon through adapted management practices. 17 It is important in this context that the agricultural sector not only adapts to the expected climate change but also contributes as much as possible to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Research plays a decisive role in coping with these new challenges. Rapid action is absolutely necessary to ensure the availability of food all over the world which can also contribute to avoid global conflicts in this regard. In view of the expected climate change and the increasing shortage of resources (such as soil, water, biodiversity, energy), alternatives must be developed to be able to quickly and effectively deal with these complex challenges. This must be based on increased research efforts at international and national level as well as on the better integration and coordination of research programmes in order to get more output from the same input. Research must be aimed at determining – through an integrated examination of economic efficiency, ecological aspects and social expectations – concrete adaptation measures and reduction potentials in agriculture and forestry in line with a sustainable increase in food and biomass production. 4. Research issues to be addressed The close relationship between climate change, the increasing shortage of resources and the rising need for food and energy as well as other plant-based raw materials requires overarching research approaches that examine adaptation and reduction potentials on varying scales, from the field to the region. The agricultural sector can contribute to that although its contribution must vary depending on the region. Some particularly important research topics are: - As a consequence of climate change, extreme weather situations are to be expected - more frequently and will not only have an influence on farmers’ risks but also on food security in general. Improved simulation models on varying scales are required to assist farmers in their crop planning. A better understanding of the important ecosystem functions as a prerequisite for sustainable farming systems. The expected climate change will lead to a shifting of the agro-ecological production zones in Europe which will also have an impact on pests, diseases and invasive species. The consequences of these changes for the different cropping 18 systems must be better understood so that the relevant adaptations can be made as soon as possible. It is important in this context that climate changes are monitored and the observations evaluated in order to improve the informative value of models. The following scientifically-based recommendations can be developed on this basis. These could then be specifically implemented by national research promotion measures: - Recommendations for the development of less energy-intensive, more adaptable and sustainable production and processing systems. - Recommendations for the development of more climate-friendly animal production and husbandry systems, - - Recommendations for measures with regard to the exploitation of possible potentials to increase the efficiency of the means of production used with a view to producing “more with less” (e.g. fertiliser, water), Recommendations for the development of cropping systems that allows a more efficient use of increasingly scarce global resources (e.g. water) and a more economical use of fertilisers and pesticides, for example. This includes soilpreserving cropping methods (such as mulching or no-plough soil tillage) to allow an accumulation of carbon in the soil. More robust plant species that are better adapted to heat and drought stress are required at the same time. An increase in plant and animal productivity makes an important contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions per unit produced. In addition, a broader range of arable crops can also contribute to the elasticity (resilience) of production systems under the changed conditions that climate change is expected to bring about. This would represent an important contribution to biodiversity and important ecosystem functions. The Joint Programme Planning will, in the end, draw up important recommendations for the development of technological innovations which could then be implemented through national research and development activities on the basis of the relevant sitespecific conditions. Technological innovations are regarded as a key factor in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. There is a considerable need for research in all areas, both with regard to adapting the agricultural sector to the expected climate change and exploiting the reduction potentials in the entire value-added chain. The following areas are of particular importance in this context: 19 - - 5. The creation of models on varying scales is mainly aimed at limiting uncertainties and improving predictions. Based on this modelling, concrete adaptation and reduction packages can then be developed at the lowest level through national measures which will enable farmers in various regions to adapt to changes and reduce their specific emissions. And finally, greenhouse gas emissions must be monitored to be able to control whether reduction targets are met. Value-added, advantages and effects Such a transboundary approach for a joint research programme initiative would help - reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. This would be an important contribution towards ensuring compliance with the EU obligations within the framework of international agreements. - The decision-makers would be able to rely on significantly broader and sounder data material for policy-making. - The limited national research capacities and funds could be used much more efficiently to the advantage of all parties involved. - In addition, Europe would be able to contribute more visibly and powerfully to international/global research programmes. - - - The joint programme initiative is in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity: The programme planning determines important research activities at European level on the modelling and monitoring of the effects of climate change and jointly supports scientifically-based recommendations on the reduction and adaptation potentials in agriculture. The research and development activities concerning the development of technological innovations based thereon, on the other hand, are supported by measures at national level depending on the site-specific conditions. With this division of labour, such a programme initiative would allow quicker results and breakthroughs in the development of sustainable farming systems, improve the adaptation of agricultural ecosystems to the expected climate change and reduce farmers’ risks. This web of interaction between European and national initiatives could also accelerate technological innovations to increase the productivity and efficiency of the means of production used and, in addition, improve not only the competitiveness of European farmers but also regional and global food security. 20 Climate and health Objectives: (1) Development / improvement of surveillance systems to assess the implications of future climate change on health (2) Improvement of our ability to predict changes and implications (3) Improvement of health care with a view to future climate change and extreme weather events in Europe Problems / proposed solutions: In order to be able to identify concrete health risks at an early stage and initiate suitable countermeasures and information campaigns, more research into the numerous and complex links between the changing climatic conditions and human health is needed. Climate change can be expected to affect both infectious diseases and non-infectious diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, allergies, and injuries resulting from extreme weather events. With respect to infectious diseases, there is a special need for action and research in the areas of surveillance, epidemiology, modelling and public health, vector monitoring, and vector competence in order to improve the predictability of the spread dynamics of potential changes. For example, more systematic and regular analyses need to be carried out in all potential distribution areas to be able to conduct a targeted risk assessment of vector spread dynamics. The envisaged cooperation at a European level offers excellent opportunities to detect and analyse significant changes in geographical distribution and temporal trends at an early stage. This applies to indigenous infectious agents that are climate-sensitive and to new or increasingly imported agents. Furthermore, the development of drugs, particularly vaccines, is expected to pose great challenges that can best be met through coordinated research and development activities. As for the consequences of climate change on non-infectious diseases, particularly among vulnerable population groups, numerous additional factors need to be taken into account, including changed living and environmental conditions, changed attitudes to health, and health care. So far, there is not enough reliable data to be able to issue evidence-based recommendations for adaptation strategies. Reasons for joint action: This is a complex topic that affects people across different countries – infectious diseases do not stop at national borders. That is why joint efforts by all researchers working in this field in Europe are both appropriate and necessary. A joint programming initiative in the area of climate and health could pool existing research capacities in Europe, make optimal use of synergies and thus increase our ability to adapt to future climate changes and their effects on people’s health. 21 Strategic importance: Europe would be able to address an important aspect of its health care – the adaptation to future changes in the climate – in a forward-looking and responsible way. The surveillance systems that are to be developed would also be transferable to other world regions. In this way, Europe would take on global responsibility and make a valuable contribution to improving global adaptability to future climate changes. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urgently demands a solution strategy in this area. Potential participants in Europe: WHO DE: Robert Koch Institute, various institutes of the MPG, WGL and HGF as well as of universities, German Meteorological Service (among others) FR: National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Institute Pasteur (among others) BE: Institute of Tropical Medicine (ITM), Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS) (among others) AT: Medical University of Vienna, Institute for Environmental Hygiene (among others) PT: Instituto Dr. Ricardo Jorge (among others) SE: Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI), Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (among others) Time frame for this JPI: 2010 to 2019 22 More reliable climate simulations Proposal for a “Joint Programming Initiative” Subject: More reliable climate simulations – a High-Tech Strategy approach for recording clouds correctly and taking them into account Objectives: (4) Use of the latest European-funded monitoring technologies and supercomputer capacities to reduce the error potential of clouds in climate models, (5) As a result: improvement of the accuracy of climate models by 30 to 50%, both for global and for regional forecasts (6) Improvement of the predictive capabilities of climate models with regard to the occurrence of exteme events (7) Improvement of our knowledge of climate development and therefore our adaptability to future climate changes and extreme events, not just in Europe, but across the world Problems / proposed solutions: Approximately 60% of the earth is covered by clouds. They strongly affect the earth's radiation and energy balance and consequently its climate. In addition, clouds have a significant and direct effect on the water balance and temperature, and thus on people's quality of life. Nonetheless, the characterization of sky cover in climate models and of its reaction to human-induced global warming remains very unreliable. The inadquate representation of clouds in climate models is the main reason why it has not been possible to significantly reduce the spread (= degree of uncertainty) of +/- 50% in climate scenarios and projections for more than 10 years. We urgently need to reduce the error potential of clouds in climate models to improve the quality and predictive capabilities of such models. This is the only way to foresee the extent and course of future changes in the climate. It is also the only way in which we can ensure that model results can be used as the basis for concrete, forward-looking adaptation measures. There are two reasons why clouds are not taken into account sufficiently. On the one hand, clouds can only be delineated (“parameterized”) very roughly owing to insufficient computer and storage capacities and the resulting inadequate spatial resolution of the models. On the other hand, there is a lack of adequate technological measuring methods that can resolve the “uncertainty principle” between cloud cover and the microphysical properties of clouds on a global scale. In both areas – computing capacity and measuring methods at a global and microscopic level – there have been and will be advances in the foreseeable future, not least as a result of investments from Europe in infrastructure, measuring devices and instruments. The ESA Earth Explorer mission EarthCARE, which is to take place in 2012/2013, is a particularly striking example. It will for the first time enable the active and passive measurement of clouds and their microphysical properties in high spatial resolution from a satellite platform. This will create the prerequisites for developing better models and algorithms for clouds with the help of extensive research on in-situ platforms, aeroplanes and satellites and for incorporating them in global circulation models and thus also in climate models. 23 Reasons for joint action: Europe has the expertise and the instruments to be able to achieve this significant breakthrough. It is a complex problem that can only be solved in the medium term. Joint efforts by all researchers working in this field in Europe are necessary. In coming years, outstanding – and internationally unparalleled – infrastructures will be available, and these should be used in a concerted effort. They include the above-mentioned ESA research mission EarthCARE and other measurement platforms, such as the German Aerospace Center’s research aeroplane HALO, the cloud simulator LACIS at the Institute for Tropospheric Research in Leipzig, the aerosol and cloud chamber AIDA at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, and the international experiment CLOUD to investigate the influence of galactic cosmic rays on aerosol and cloud formation, which is already underway at CERN and in which Germany is actively participating. At the same time, the existing HPC capacities for climate research in Europe could be ideally linked to each other with the use of the latest software technologies (such as GRID) to be able to make the best possible use of available computing resources. Strategic importance: With this concerted approach, Europe could contribute significantly to the IPCC and the UNFCCC process. In particular, Europe could make a valuable and globally effective contribution to improving our adaptability to future climate change. Potential participants in Europe: ECMWF DE: various institutes of the MPG, WGL and HGF as well as of universities, German Meteorological Service, German Climate Computing Centre (among others) FR: various institutes of the CNRS and of universities (e.g. LMD, LOA, LSCE, L.a.M.P., LGGE) UK: Hadley Centre (among others) and other national research institutions and international consortia, such as CLOUD Research efforts under this approach should be linked to other suitable institutional and European approaches that aim to bring together existing expertise in the area of atmospheric research to form virtual institutes. Time frame for this JPI: 2010 to 2019 Leadership: DE (potentially) 24