Download June 15 - 17, 2009

Progress Report:
Workshop: Applying IPCC-Class Models of Global Warming to Fisheries
Prediction
Principal Investigator: Charles Stock (Research Oceanographer, GFDL)
Other Participating Researchers: Jorge Sarmiento, John Dunne, Anand Gnanadesikan, Kelly Kearney
(planning and attending), approximately 50 scientists from across the US and other countries attending
Education/Outreach
NOAA’s Goal #1: Protect, Restore, and Manage the Use of Coastal and Ocean Resources through
Ecosystem-based Management (75%)
NOAA’s Goal #2: Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and
Respond (25%)
Objectives: Hold a workshop attended by leading living marine resource and climate scientists to 1)
assess present approaches for using IPCC-class climate models to understand climate impacts on living
marine resources, 2) identify priority research areas where new developments could greatly increase
present LMR prediction capabilities, and 3) stimulate the development of new and innovative approaches
for studying climate change impacts on LMRs by promoting a greater shared understanding between
climate and LMR scientists of key challenges and uncertainties in each field.
Methods and Results/Accomplishments:
The workshop "Applying IPCC-Class Models of Global Warming to Fisheries Prediction" was
held between June 15-17, 2009 at Princeton University. It was attended by approximately 50 scientists
from across the United States and from other countries. Participants included fisheries and living marine
resource scientists from the NOAA/NMFS regional fisheries science centers, climate scientists and
modelers from NOAA/OAR laboratories including GFDL, and leading academic scientists. The first day
of the workshop featured talks and discussions that established a common baseline understanding of the
key challenges facing climate and living marine resource scientists faced tasked with assessing the
impacts of climate change on living marine resources (see website referenced below). The second day of
the workshop featured six case studies of applications of IPCC-class climate model projections to living
marine resources predictions. These case studies surveyed a range of approaches presently being used
and elucidated key limitations of present climate and living marine resource models. The last day of the
workshop emphasized areas where new developments may significantly enhance our ability to project the
response of LMRs to climate change and variability over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.
These included the development of robust interannual to decadal-scale climate prediction, comprehensive
"physics-to-fishers" models, and sustained ocean observing efforts that include physical, chemical, and
ecological measurements at refined spatial and temporal scales.
Following the workshop, 23 participating scientists have collaborated to development a
comprehensive synthesis paper that captures the scope and main findings of the workshop. The
penultimate draft of this paper has been circulated to co-authors for review and should be submitted to
Progress in Oceanography within the month. The paper synthesizes salient aspects of living marine
resource dynamics and models and climate system dynamics and models, emphasizing those aspects that
shape applications of climate models to LMR prediction. The case studies presented during the workshop
are described and assessed. Recommended practices for applying IPCC-class climate models to LMR
projections and priority developments are then discussed before overarching conclusions are drawn.
References:
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/fisheries-and-climate-workshop
Publications:
Stock, C.A., Alexander, M., Bond, N.A., Brander, K.B., Cheung, W., Curchitser, E., Delworth,
T.L., Dunne, J., Griffies, S.M., Haltuch, M., Hare, J., Hollowed, A.B., Gnanadesikan, A., Lehodey, P.,
Levin, S., Link, J.S., Rose, K.A., Rykaczewski, R., Sarmiento, J.L., Schwing, F., Stouffer, R., Vecchi, G.,
& Werner, C. ((in prep)) On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living
marine resources to be submitted to Progress in Oceanography.