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A World Transformed The Consequences of Climate Change and Human Land Use Wolfgang Lucht • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Chair, Research Domain „Earth System Analysis“ May 2004 October 2006 April 2006 März 2006 30 October 2006 Costs of Climate Change Benefits of Avoidance Nobel Peace Prize 12 November 2007 Al Gore IPCC (Rajendra Pachauri) IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM Global Temperature Increase Three Scenarios (Different Emissions) in 20 Years in 90 Years Scale Challenges in Global Vegetation Modelling global biogeochemistry Biosphere Ecosystems disturbance and sucsession storms, fire evolution carbon allocation and growth geographical distribution of vegetation types plant seasonality Plants Leaves competition for ressources and ecological strategies plant metabolism water- and nutrient budget Cells photosynthesis Molecules Seconds Source: W. Lucht, PIK Minutes Hours Years Decades Centuries LPJmL Global Model of Natural Vegetation & Agriculture Sitch et al., GCB, 2003; Gerten et al., J. Hydrol., 2004; Bondeau et al., GCB, 2007 Lucht et al. 2007; IPCC 2007 No Effect Weak Effect Moderate Effect Strong Effect What do the ecologists say? Hare, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, 2006 No Effect Weak Effect Moderate Effect Strong Effect What do the ecologists say? Hare, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, 2006 Earth is under (at least) Double Pressure Natural Productivity of the Land Biosphere Photosynthetic fixation (plant growth): + 65.5 billion tons of carbon / year Haberl et al., PNAS 104, 2007 Changes in Land Productivity from Land Surface Alterations Haberl et al., PNAS 104, 2007 Human interference: altered land surfaces –6.3 billion tons of carbon / year Compare: Fossil fuel emissions ~ –7 bn tons C/year Human Appropriation of Photosynthetic Production Human interference and harvest: –15.6 billion tons of carbon / year Haberl et al., PNAS 104, 2007 Compare: Fossil fuel emissions ~ –7 bn tons C/year altered land surfaces – 6.3 GtC/yr harvest – 8.2 GtC/yr fires – 1.1 GtC/yr backflows + 2.2 GtC/yr Haberl et al., PNAS 104, 2007 Human Appropriation of Photosynthetic Production Human interference and harvest: = 22% of Natural Net Primary Production Human Appropriation of Photosynthetic Production Assumption: 200 EJ/Year of Bioenergy available Emissions GtC/year 30 25 Portfolio of measures for slashing CO2 emissions 20 15 10 5 2000 O. Edenhofer and team, PIK, 2007 2050 2100 studies of supply studies of demand model calculations Berndes et al., 2003 LPJmL Pattern of Biomass Production on Deforested Land IUCN areas and frontier forests protected 100% current cropland set aside 130% current cropland set aside Energy: 150 EJ/yr 8 Mio km2 53 GtC C-loss 8.4 Mio km2 60 GtC C-loss 24 Mio km2 140 GtC C-loss Energy: 400 EJ/yr Erbrecht and Lucht, 2008 Global Bioenergy Potential (2100, 9 bn people, increased cal/cap) ExaJoule Primary Energy ExaJoule 450 Yield increase annual (total) % 400 350 300 1.1 1.1(200) (200) 0.9 0.9(145) (145) 0.7 0.7(101) (101) 0.5 0.5(65) (65) 250 200 150 100 50 FAO 1970-95: 1.3 % annual 0 0.0 0.1 0.1 (11) (11) 0.2 0.2 (22) (22) 0.3 0.3 (35) (35) 0.4 0.4(49) (49) Expansion of of cropland cropland relative relative to to current: current: annual annual(total) (total) % % H. Lotze-Campen, PIK, 2008 Metabolic Effects of Industrialisation Industrialisation is a revolution in the socioeconomic metabolism and the structure of society. Source: M. Fischer-Kowalski, iff Vienna Currently ongoing: Continued Industrialisation of Land Use Crutzen and Steffen, 2004 From Co-Evolution … into the Anthropocene Vegetation Effects on Climate Bioclimatic Effects Geosphere Geosphere Biosphere Climate Change Climate Change Impacts Biosphere Human Land Use Agriculture & Forestry Anthroposphere The Challenge: Emergence of Conscious Global Action W. Lucht, PIK How can Earth be understood as a system? 1. Digital Mimicry Principle 2. Bird‘s Eye Principle 3. Lilliput Principle Earth System Modelling of Intermediate Complexity Earth Observation, Macroscopes Environmental Experiments Schellnhuber, Nature, 1999 Plotting a future course for the Earth System Required to avoid cliffs & narrows • Good Navigation Charts ( Computer Models) Plotting a future course for the Earth System Required to avoid cliffs & narrows • Good Navigation Charts ( Computer Models) • Constant Observation from the Crow‘s Nest ( Earth Observations) Tipping Points in the Earth System Lenton et al., PNAS, 2008 Plotting a future course for the Earth System Required to avoid cliffs & narrows • Good Navigation Charts ( Computer Models) • Constant Observation from the Crow‘s Nest ( Earth Observations) • Be prepared! ( Expect Surprises) The Challenge: Emergence of Conscious Global Action The Anthropocene Vegetation Effects on Climate Bioclimatic Effects Geosphere Biosphere Climate Change Climate Change Impacts Human Land Use Agriculture & Forestry Anthroposphere W. Lucht, PIK A World Transformed The Consequences of Climate Change and Human Land Use Wolfgang Lucht • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Chair, Research Domain „Earth System Analysis“