Download CLIMATE CHANGE: THE IMPACTS AND THE URGENCY

CLIMATE CHANGE:
Cause, Effect, and Action
Presentation Prepared by Mid Ohio Valley Climate Action Group
Scientific Consensus
James Hansen
Fmr. Chief Climatologist: Goddard Space Institute - NASA
Adjunct Professor: Dept. of Earth and Environmental Science Columbia University
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
WD
Climate Science Video
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https://youtu.be/M2Jxs7lR8ZI
HISTORY
DB
HISTORY and STATUS
of Global Climate Change
- More and Better Data available today vs 30 years ago, due to…
- More and better data extends our time horizon, and reduces
uncertainty in our projections of the future (modeling).
HALF MILLION YEAR HISTORY

“Signal vs Noise” ; signal = underlying trend, noise = “scatter”

Cyclical Pattern, due to…?

Correlation between Temperature and CO2

What causes the trends to TURN ???
Dynamic Equilibrium
Rebalancing
they move together
Trust me, it’s not Good!
1 THOUSAND YEAR HISTORY
Same cyclical pattern – up close.
Temperature “anomaly”
1 HUNDRED YEAR HISTORY
Pre-Industrial norm / trend – natural causes (in line with Million year history)
Post-Industrial Change – manmade causes (sudden departure from history)
What Causes Climate Change?
Human Caused Primarily
by two things:
1) Burning Fossil Fuels
(coal, oil, natural gas)
= 80%
2) Deforestation= 20%
The “Greenhouse Effect”
Greenhouse Gases (GHG’s)
Major Greenhouse Gases
 Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
from burning fossil fuels
(coal, oil, natural gas)
 Methane (CH4)
from extracting natural
gas and from the food
animal industry
 86x more potent than
CO2
 Deforestation-CUTTING
DOWN FORESTS
 Trees Absorb CO2
Surface Temperature Increase

FIGURE 1. Change of climate forcings, in watts per square meter,
between 1750 and 2000. Vertical bars show estimated uncertainty.
Uncertainty for "other greenhouse gases" is similar to that
for carbon dioxide. (Data from Hansen et al., "Efficacy of
Climate Forcings." See sources.)
SLOW FEEDBACKS
CRUCIAL BECAUSE:
 Affects Climate Sensitivity
 “Their instigation relates to the danger of passing
the “POINT OF NO RETURN”
Beyond which
IRREVERSIBLE CONSEQUENCES BECOME
INEVITABLE, OUT OF HUMANITY’S CONTROL.”
Slow Feedback
“If ice sheet disintegration reaches a
point such that the dynamics and
momentum of the process take over,
at that point reducing GHG’s may be
unable to prevent major ice sheet
mass loss, sea level rise of many
meters, and worldwide loss of coastal
cities—a consequence that is
irreversible.”
IMPACTS
WD
So here we are…what are the
Impacts?
It’s ALL Connected!
 Oceans-the Wild Card
 Melting Ice-Antarctic and Greenland
Sea Level Rise
 Sea Level Rise
 Extreme Weather-Drought, Wildfire, Flooding, Extreme
Precipitation, Tornados, Heat Waves
 Impacts on Food/Fresh Water Supply
 Mass Extinction of Species
 Human Health Impacts
Oceans
 Acidification of Oceans-from
excess CO2 uptakewidespread die off of
marine organisms
 Warming of Ocean-Kills
essentials to sea food web—
decreased ocean food
supply
 Oceans store nearly 90% of
surplus energy
 Slow Feedback
Mechanism—WILD CARD
Ice Melt:
Slow Feedback Loop
 Massive CH4 (methane)
release
 Loss of reflectivity: Ice
reflects solar radiation
 Extinction of Species
 Massive Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise-Impacts
 Loss of Coastal Cities and Entire Island Nations
 Incalculable Economic Consequences
 Mass Displacement of Humans
of Climate Refugees
Hundreds of Millions
 Higher population density competing for limited
resources
Major International Conflicts
**Note: The Pentagon Has Declared Climate Change
a Major Threat to National Security**
Extreme Weather
Environmental Damage
What if this child was American??
ACTION OPTIONS
DB
The PROBLEM
 There is currently a Carbon “Imbalance” occurring
on the Planet
 3-4 “Giga tons” of carbon is being added to the
atmosphere EVERY YEAR.
 This imbalance is causing the temperature to rise.
 The temperature will CONTINUE to rise until the
imbalance is resolved – One Way or Another.
ACTION OPTIONS
Where do we go from here?
- Basic Principles –
1. A CO2 spike / increase decays by 50% in 25 years – absorbed into
ocean, biosphere (living plants & animals) and soil (decaying plants &
animals).
2. Bumper Sticker Goal; “350 by 2100” (the 1.5O C risk avoidance
goal).
3.
The longer we delay, the higher the level, the tougher the challenge.
4.
Human Nature makes “Overshoot” likely
-
because of the cost (rich / poor diversity)
-
because of the scope of change required – multi-faceted, technologically
challenging, global diversity
-
because of doubters, skeptics, resisters, and Procrastination
-
Global decision-making / monitoring processes
ACTION SCENARIOS
ACTION SCENARIOS
 “M2009” Scenario (Meinhausen / McKibbens study, modeling)
 “A2009” Scenario (Adams study, modeling)
 BOTH of these Scenarios assume;
 - No GROWTH in consumption (Globally - even with
continued consumption).
 - 100 GtC Reforestation / Agriculture.
 - Both are based on 2009 data, using 2000 as their starting
point.
ACTION SCENARIOS
continued
 “M2009” – limit ongoing consumption to <393 GtC during the period
2000 – 2049 including likely impacts of NON CO2 emissions, and NO Net
consumption beyond 2050.
-
50% likelihood of temperature peaking at +2O C, then declining to +1.5O C
by year 2100 – assuming no unexpected “tipping point” type
consequences.
-
80% likelihood of temperature peaking at +2OC, then declining, if
consumption is kept to 179 GtC.
-
updating the projection using 2013 data vs 2009 indicates a remaining
“allowable carbon budget” of 128 GtC.
 “A2009” – limit TOTAL post-industrial consumption to <1000 GtC
(450 GtC remaining) during the period 2000 – 2049, NO Net
impacts from NON CO2 emissions, and NO Net consumption
beyond 2050.
-
50% likelihood of peaking at +2O C
-
90% likelihood of peaking between +1.3O C and +3.9O C
Achieving the Goal
1) Reforestation is a “given” – biosphere, cover, food-stocks
2) The contribution of Non CO2 gas emissions to be brought to
Net Zero, from their 20% contribution today.
3) Let “Capitalism” HELP rather than hinder the transition
process. Let THE FREE MARKET do the work and make the
tough choices.
Carbon Fee and Dividend (CF&D)
Unleash “market forces” for Research, Innovation, Conservation,
Substitution, Reallocation & Reduction – GLOBALLY.
4) Social Remedy (relocation, transition assistance, emergency
response, remediation) for those persons and societies most
impacted.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/19/opinion/proof-that-a-price-on-carbonworks.html?smid=fb-share
“Eye on the Prize”

NO “Eeyore”,
NO Gloom & Doom !!

Franklin D. Roosevelt WON WWII by focusing on the INEVITABILITY of
VICTORY - based on USA’s greatly superior natural resources, and the ability,
imagination, dedication, commitment and creativity of a FREE people.
- Not by focusing on the risks and consequences of losing.

Churchill ; the road will be Long and Hard, BUT… “ this will be our FINEST
HOUR!! ”

What’s the “Pathway to SUCCESS”?
 INDIVIDUAL Action – “Carbon Diet”
 Political ACTION – “CF&D”
 GLOBALLY
DB
A CALL TO ACTION…
We need a worldwide social and political movement to force
our governments to immediately address this crisis and move to
100% renewable energy and forest preservation.
Get Involved— Advocacy Groups
Write Letters to Editor and to Political Representatives
**ASK YOUR CANDIDATES…..HOW WILL YOU ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE???
Support Candidates who Have Plans to Address the Climate Crisis
Climate Justice & Political Policy are Inseparable—we MUST Have Legislation to Have
Necessary Impact
Minimize your own Carbon Footprint
INSPIRE, and BE INSPIRED
JOIN US, Join MOVCA
ACTION OPTIONS
 Dave