Download Adaptation and Mitigation

Climate System,Climate
Prediction and Climate Change
Dr.SONG Yan
Dept. of Science and Technology Training
Training Centre of China
Meteorological Administration
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Ⅲ Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate
Change
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Causes of climate change
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Causes of climate change
Natural factors
Human factors
Land use
Aerosols
GHGs
Natural
variability
Solar
Volcano
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Possibly anthropogenic factors for climate change
Natural factors
NO
Climate change
Aerosols effect
CH4
Greenhouse effect
CO2
CFCs
Sulfate硫酸盐
Black carbon
Nitrate硝酸盐
Mineral
Land use change
Urbanization
Deforestation
Irrigation
Farming
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Anyway, dependence on fossil fuels is a
problematic situation.
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Conclusions by the IPCC AR4
Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations.
It is likely that there has been significant
anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years
averaged over each continent except Antarctica.
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Adaptation and Mitigation
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Definitions of Adaptation and
Mitigation
• Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli (pl. stimulus) or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits (利用）
bene'ficial opportunities.
• Mitigation refers to spe'cific （明确的）climate
policies will be implemented to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
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Differences, similarities between
adaptation and mitigation
The TAR used the following definitions of climate change
mitigation and adaptation.
• Mitigation: An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC,
2001a).
• Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their
effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities (IPCC, 2001a).
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Differences, similarities between
adaptation and mitigation
It follows from（根据…得出） these definitions that
mitigation reduces all impacts (positive and negative) of
climate change and thus reduces the adaptation
challenge, whereas （而）adaptation is selective; it can
take advantage of （利用）positive impacts and reduce
negative ones (Goklany, 2005).
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Differences, similarities between
adaptation and mitigation
The two options are implemented on the same local or regional
scale, and may be 'motivated （发动，推动）by local and regional
pri'orities and interests, as well as global concerns(所关心的事）.
Mitigation has global benefits (an'cillary（辅助的） benefits might
be realised at the local/regional level), although effective
mitigation needs to involve a sufficient number of major
greenhouse-gas emitters to foreclose（防止） leakage（泄漏）.
Adaptation typically works on the scale of an impacted system,
which is regional at best（最多）, but mostly local (although some
adaptation might result in spill-overs（外流人口） across national
boundaries, for example by changing international co'mmodity
（日用品） prices in agricultural or forest-product （林产品）
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markets).
Differences, similarities between
adaptation and mitigation
Expressed as CO2-equivalents（等价物）, emissions
reductions achieved by different mitigation actions can be
compared and if the costs of implementing the actions are
known, their cost-effectiveness（成本效率） can be determined
and compared (Moomaw et al., 2001). The benefits of
adaptation are more difficult to express in a single metric（公制
的）, impeding（即将发生的，迫在眉睫的） comparisons
between adaptation efforts. Moreover, as a result of the
predominantly local or regional effect of adaptation, benefits of
adaptation will be valued differently depending on the social,
economic and political contexts（背景） within which they 13
occur.
Differences, similarities between
adaptation and mitigation
The benefits of mitigation carried out today will be evidenced
(显著的） in several decades because of the long residence（居
住/停留） time of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (ancillary
（辅助的） benefits such as reduced air pollution are possible in
the near term), whereas many adaptation measures would be
effective immediately and yield benefits by reducing vulnerability
（脆弱性） to climate variability. As climate change continues, the
benefits of adaptation (i.e., avoided damage) will increase over
time. Thus there is a delay between incurring（招致的） the costs
of mitigation and realising（明白） its benefits from smaller
climate change, while the time span between expenditures（支出）
and returns of adaptation is usually much shorter.
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Differences, similarities between
adaptation and mitigation
This difference（支出和回报） is au‘gmented in analyses
adopting（采用） positive （绝对的）discount rates（折扣率）.
These a'symmetries（不对称） have led to a situation
whereby（为何） the initiative（主动） for mitigation has
tended to stem（阻止） from international agreements and
ensuing（继发的） national public policies （国家政策）
(sometimes supplemented（补充） by community-based or
private-sector （私营成分的）initiatives), whereas the bulk of
（大多数）adaptation actions have historically been
'motivated by the self-interest（私利） of affected private
actors and communities, possibly fa‘cilitated （由…推动) by
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public policies（国家政策）.
Differences, similarities between
adaptation and mitigation
There are a number of ways in which adaptation and mitigation are
related（有关系的） at different levels of decision-making. Mitigation efforts
can foster（鼓励） adaptive capacity（适应能力） if they e'liminate market
failures（故障） and distortions（扭曲）, as well as per‘verse（不正当的）
subsidies（补助金） that prevent （妨碍）actors from making decisions on
the basis of the true social costs （社会成本）of the available options（方
案）. At a highly aggregated scale, mitigation expenditures （支出）appear
to divert（转移） social or private resources and reduce the funds available
for adaptation, but in reality the actors and budgets involved（有关的） are
different. Both options change relative prices（相对价格）, which can lead
to slight adjustments in consumption（消费） and investment（投资）
patterns（模式） and thus to changes in the affected economy’s
development pathway（方式）, but direct trade-offs are rare.
Trade-off: A balancing of adaptation and mitigation when it is not possible to carry
out both activities fully at the same time (e.g., due to financial or other constraints).
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Differences, similarities between
adaptation and mitigation
The implications （含意）of adaptation can be
both positive（正面的） and negative（负面的）
for mitigation. For example, afforestation（造林）
that is part of a regional adaptation strategy also
makes a positive contribution to mitigation. In
contrast, adaptation actions that require
increased energy use from carbon-emitting
sources (e.g., indoor cooling) would affect
mitigation efforts negatively.
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Summary of main findings of AR4
• Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows
that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate
changes, particularly temperature increases.
•
A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that
anthropogenic warming has had a discernible（可辨别的）
influence on many physical and biological systems.
• Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human
environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern
due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.
• More specific（明确的） information is now available across a wide
range of systems and sectors （部门）concerning the nature of
future impacts（未来影响的实质）, including for some fields not
covered in previous assessments.
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Summary of main findings of AR4
• More specific（明确的） information is now available across the
regions of the world concerning future impacts, including for some
places not covered in previous assessments.
•
Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for
a range of（一系列） possible increases in global average
temperature.
• Impacts due to altered（被改变的） frequencies and intensities of
extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to
change.
• Some large-scale climate events have the potential（潜力） to
cause very large impacts, especially after the 21st century.
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Summary of main findings of AR4
• Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and
discounted（折算） to the present, they are very likely to impose（影响）
net annual costs （年成本）which will increase over time as global
temperatures increase.
• Some adaptation is occurring now, to（针对） observed and projected
future climate change, but on a limited basis.
• Adaptation will be necessary to address（deal with/应对） impacts
resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past
emissions.
• A wide array of（大量的） adaptation options（方案） is available, but
more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required （但是还
需要比现在更为广泛的适应措施）to reduce vulnerability to future climate
change. There are barriers（阻碍）, limits（限制） and costs（成本）,
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but these are not fully understood（认识）.
Summary of main findings of AR4
• Vulnerability to climate change can be ex'acerbated（加剧） by the
presence of other stresses（压力、危机）.
• Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on
development pathway（路径）.
•
Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change,
and climate change could impede（阻碍） nations’ abilities to achieve
（实现） sustainable development pathways.
•
Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.（通过
减缓能够避免、减轻或延迟许多影响）。
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A portfolio （the range of products/一揽子措施) of adaptation and
mitigation measures can diminish the risks （降低风险）associated with
climate change.
Portfolio: A set of actions to achieve a particular goal. A climate policy portfolio
may include adaptation, mitigation, research and technology development, as
well as other actions aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate change.
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Problems and gaps between
China and Developed Countries
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Problems and gaps in observations, in
particular in developing countries
1. Insu'fficiency of observations
• Sparseness（稀疏） of observational stations
• Insufficiency （不足）of long-term climate data series
• Lackness of observations for some key variables
2. Lowering representation of observations（观测
资料缺乏代表性）
• 'Inhomoge'neities in many climate data series
• Lack of meta-data（数据元） for observational records
• Effects of urbanization on air temperature records
3. Weakness of capacity
• Difficulties to raise funds
• Lack of professionals in managing and analyzing of data
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Needs for improving observations of
developing countries
1. Constructing national observational systems
• A better in situ observational network
• Development and application of satellite products
• An 'integrated observational station network
• Reconstruction of proxy（代用数据） or paleo-（古）
data series
2. Improving observational settings
• More ho'mogenous and un-biased（有偏的） data series
• Development of meta-data for adjusting in-homogeneities
3. Strengthening capacity
• In data storage and management
• In building of institutions （制度）
2017/5/24
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China’s experiences: achievements
 A good basic observation network, and China is upgrading
the network under the framework of the China-GCOS
program
 Operational monitoring of atmospheric compositions,
energy budget, water and carbon cycles, ecosystem and land
use, ice and snow, et al.
 Submissions of real-time observational data of China-GCOS
stations and historical data from national stations to the
WDC-Meteorology
 An operational system of climatic monitoring, prediction
and impact assessment in the BCC
 Cooperative observation and data application programs
2017/5/24
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Monitoring of weather and climate extremes by CMA
Cold wave
Tropical cyclone
Dust storm
Drought monitoring
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Measures to further improve the
observation system of China
 Increasing observational stations in data-sparse areas
 Maintaining the representation of observational settings
 Monitoring the variables other than basic climate
variables
 Developing satellite climate products
 Training young and local experts
 Coordinating observational programs among different
ministries（部门）
 Enhancing regional and international cooperation
2017/5/24
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The End
Comments?
Questions?
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Assignments
1 Please give the definitions of Adaptation, Vulnerability and
Mitigation.
2 What are causes for climate change?
3 Understand the differences and similarities between adaptation
and mitigation of climate change.
3 Please understand the main findings of IPCC AR4.
4 What are problems and gaps between China and Developed
Countries?
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