* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Effects of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Canada wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effect of 2000-2050 global change on U.S. ozone air quality Shiliang Wu Loretta J. Mickley GCAP Daniel J. Jacob Eric M. Leibensperger David Rind (NASA/GISS) David G. Streets (ANL) GEOS-Chem users’ meeting, 2007/04 work supported by the EPA-STAR program Background - We are facing rapid global change NOx emission from fossil fuel (Tg N / yr) 50 45 40 2050 IPCC A1B scenario 35 30 2000 25 20 15 10 2000 5 2050 0 U.S. (-40%) Global (+90%) IPCC [2007] Models and future scenarios GISS GCM III GEOS-Chem 23 vertical layers extending to 85 km detailed ozone-NOx-VOC-aerosol chemistry Horizontal resolution of 4º x 5º Anthropogenic emissions (IPCC A1B scenario) GHG Radiative forcing Natural emissions Climate Change 2000 2050 change NOx-lightning, Tg N/yr 4.9 5.8 +18% NOx - soil, Tg N/yr 6.1 6.6 +8% Isoprene, Tg C/yr 430 537 +25% Air pollutants & their precursors Chemistry, transport, deposition, etc Effects of 2000-2050 global change on tropospheric ozone (annual zonal mean) +3% +17% +20% Effects of 2000-2050 global change on U.S. ozone air quality Daily max 8h-avg ozone averaged over JJA (ppb) 2000 conditions 2050 climate – 2000 Increase of summer max8h-avg ozone by 1-5 ppb in large areas of U.S. due to 20002050 climate change. 2050 emission – 2000 2050 – 2000 Less effects in western U.S. because (1) anthro. emissions there are low (2) increase of ozone from intercontinental transport. Factors causing worse O3 AQ with the future climate Summer surface T. (2050 – 2000) Mixing depth (2050 / 2000) Convective mass flux (2050-2000) What’s more: decrease of cyclone frequency 2000 climate 2050 climate 1999-2001 Eric M. Leibensperger, Harvard 2049-2051 Max. 8-hr-avg ozone Climate change has most effects on pollution events 2000s condition 2050s climate 2050s emissions 2050s climate & emis median 99th percentile Cumulative probability (%) Mitigation of climate penalty by emission reductions in ozone precursors “climate change penalty” for ozone AQ = Δ[O3] from climate change Change of summer average max-8h ozone due to climate change (a) 2000 emissions (b) 2050 emissions Reductions of anthropogenic emissions significantly mitigate the “climate penalty” and can even turn it into a “climate benefit” in southeast and northwest U.S. Conclusions 1. Climate change is expected to worsen ozone air quality in the United States; the summer average daily max-8h ozone is projected to increase by 2-5 ppb over large areas due to the 2000-2050 climate change with the IPCC A1B scenario. Climate change has more effects on air pollution episodes than on the means; it tends to increase the 90th percentile ozone by 5-10 ppb. 2000–2050 global change would make fresh air 2. Factors causing worse ozone air quality associated with the future more luxuryhigher in the Unitedless States. climate include: temperature, convection and lower mixing depth, higher natural emissions as well as less frequent cyclones. 3. Preliminary analysis suggests that the climate change penalty corresponds to a need for some 10% further reductions in NOx emissions to meet our goals for clean air. 4. Reductions of anthropogenic emissions can significantly mitigate the “climate penalty” for ozone air quality, and even turn it into a “climate benefit”. 5. The 2000-2050 climate change would reduce the PRB ozone in the United States by 1-3 ppb for most areas while the changes in global anthropogenic emissions would increase the PRB ozone by 2-5 ppb. Effects on annual mean afternoon surface O3