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Modelling global Tropospheric Ozone: Implications for Future Air Quality and Climate David Stevenson Institute for Meteorology University of Edinburgh Thanks to: Colin Johnson, Dick Derwent, Bill Collins (Met. Office) Talk Structure • Some background about tropospheric ozone • Describe the chemistry-climate model • Model comparisons with observations • Model predictions • The future Tropospheric Ozone (O3) • Air Pollutant – City and regional-scale photochemical smogs – Damage to Vegetation – Human health – attacks tissue • Greenhouse gas – Third most potent after CO2 and CH4 – Strong spatial variation in forcing Photochemical Smog Ozone Damage to Vegetation Human health effects of ozone Healthy lung Damaged lung It makes you cry Observed Ozone trends European mountain sites 1970-1997 ozone sonde data NH mid-latitude free troposphere IPCC, 2001 Radiative forcing 1750-2000 CO2 1.5 W m-2 CH4 0.5 W m-2 Trop O3 0.35 W m-2 (IPCC, 2001) Trop. Ozone radiative forcing 1750-2000 W m-2 This is a model result IPCC, 2001 IPCC models DO3 2000-2100 Large range, particularly in tropical UT IPCC models STOCHEM • • • • • • Lagrangian chemistry-transport model 50,000 air parcels Coupled 3 hourly to HadAM3/HadCM3 AGCM grid: 3.75° x 2.5° x 58/19 levels CTM output: 5° x 5° x 22 levels 70 chemical species – CH4-CO-NOx-Hydrocarbons – Isoprene, PAN, Acetone, CH3CHO, etc. – 5-minute chemical timestep STOCHEM Global Chemistry Model Framework Air parcel centres Eulerian grid from GCM provides meteorology Interpolate met. data for each air parcel For each air parcel • Advection – 4th order Runge-Kutta Dt=1 hr – Plus small random component (=diffusion) • Emission & deposition fluxes • Integrate chemistry – Photochemistry – Gas phase chemistry – Aqueous phase chemistry • Mixing – with surrounding parcels – convective mixing – boundary layer mixing Stratospheric O3 O3 + NO → NO2 + O2 O3 + hn → O(3P) + O2 OH O3 + hn → O(1D) + O2 NO2O(1D) + M →NO O(3P) O(3P) + O2HO +M → O3 2 NOy losses O3 ‘Odd oxygen’ O(3P) O(1D) NO2 + hn → O(3P) + NO O3 losses CO CH4 VOC Dry deposition Anthropogenic & Natural emissions Use STOCHEM to look at some of the important factors for future European O3 • • • • • European emissions Northern hemisphere emissions Mix & location of emissions Rising levels of methane Climate change • Changing stratospheric ozone • Land use change / changing ‘natural’ emissions Modelling approach Repeat experiments changing only emissions 1990 (base year) 2030 variants Experiments changing both emissions and climate First, comparison with some observations for the 1990s Anthropogenic NOx emissions 1990 Global total: 24 Tg(N) (NB excluding biomass burning) GOME NO2: March 1997 NO2 Column Density March 1997 (1015 molecules per cm2) P. Veefkind, KNMI EMEP O3 monitoring sites AOT4 0 (ppbh) April– Septe mber 1999 (daylig ht hours) EMEP/TOR-2 data from NILU (A-G Hjellbrekke & S Solberg) . Harwell monthly mean Ozone Model – observation comparison Surface ozone Switzerland Good agreement at a rural site Poor at a nearby urban site Model – observation comparison Surface ozone Scandinavia Good agreement at 60°N Poor in the Arctic Observed July daytime mean O3 1990-99 STOCHEM 1800h July mean O3 Modelling approach Repeat experiments changing only emissions 1990 (base year) 2030 (IPCC SRES A2 scenario) 2030, 1990 Europe 2030, 1990 N. America 2030, 1990 Asia CH4 in 1990: 1745 ppbv (used for all above) Further 2030 run with CH4 at 2080 ppbv Biomass burning & natural emissions fixed Change in Anthropogenic NOx emissions 1990 to 2030 +0.3 +2.4 +14.3 Rest of World +13.1 Global increase: +30.1 Tg(N) Based on IPCC SRES A2 scenario IPCC SRES A2 scenario Changes in other emissions 1990 to 2030 DGlobal DEurope DN. Amer DAsia DROW NOx +30.1 +0.3 +2.4 +14.3 +13.1 CO +287 -32 -15 +148 +186 +26 -0.3 +2.4 +23 NMVOC +1 NOx in Tg(N) CO in Tg(CO) NMVOC in Tg(C) Surface Ozone changes 1990 to 2030 (no CH4 increase) European spring/summer 0 ppbv in North up to +8 in S JAN APR JUL OCT Surface DO3 1990 to 2030 – component due to European emissions European emissions cause -3 to +6 ppbv JAN APR JUL OCT Surface Ozone changes 1990 to 2030 – N. American component N. American emissions cause 0 to +2 ppbv JAN APR JUL OCT Surface Ozone changes 1990 to 2030 – Asian component JAN APR JUL OCT Vertical section 40-45°N Asian emissions cause 0 to +2 ppbv Extra O3 due to regional emissions changes Surface Ozone changes 1990 to 2030 (including CH4 increase) European spring/summer ~ +10 ppbv JAN APR JUL OCT Surface Ozone changes 1990 to 2030 (excluding CH4 increase) JAN APR JUL OCT Climate change effects • Two mammoth 110-yr coupled chemistry-climate runs (1990-2100) 1. Control climate; SRES A2 emissions 2. SRES A2 climate forcing & emissions • Johnson et al. (2001 , GRL) Climate Change effects Surface Temperature +3.5 K SRES A2 climate +3.5K Control climate Control climate SRES A2 climate Methane / ppbv Control climate SRES A2 climate CH4 lifetime Johnson et al. 2001 GRL N. Mid-latitude surface O3 / ppbv Control climate SRES A2 climate Johnson et al. 2001 GRL Large negative feedback due to increases in water vapour and O3 destruction Ozone chemical production (July) 200 hPa Surface Ozone chemical loss (July) 200 hPa Surface O3 net chemical production (July) 200 hPa Surface Ozone lifetime (July) 200 hPa Surface Days 5 10 20 50 100 Conclusions & remaining questions • UK spring/summer surface O3 up 6 to 10 ppbv by 2030 • European emissions: -2 to -4 ppbv – UK appears to benefit from emissions reductions in E. Europe • N. American emissions: 0 to +2 ppbv • Asian emissions: 0 to +2 ppbv – Other N. Hem emissions counteract European reductions • Global methane increase: +8 ppbv – Methane increases appear very important – these are mainly driven by developing world emissions • Climate change may reduce surface O3 – More water vapour, more O3 destruction • What about: – Other emissions scenarios ? – Changes in stratospheric ozone ? – Changes in land-use / “natural” emissions ? Future chemistry-climate modelling • Higher resolution / nested models – Plume processing – Boundary layer effects – surface & tropopause – Resolved cloud processes – lightning, convective mixing, aqueous chemistry, washout • More coupled processes – Biosphere – ENSO – biomass burning, oceanic emissions – Emissions from and deposition to vegetation Stratospheric O3 OH NO2 HO2 NOy losses O3 NO O(3P) O(1D) O3 losses CO CH4 VOC Dry deposition Anthropogenic & Natural emissions