Download A well defined and reassuring response to potential health impacts

All Island Environmental Health Forum
Tomorrow’s Environmental Health
Developments in the International Climate
Change Agenda
Owen Ryan
Department of the Environment,
Heritage & Local Government
May 2010
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Climate Change Agenda
International agenda


UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(1992);
Kyoto Protocol (1997);


(Commitment period 2008-2012)
IPCC – 4th scientific assessment report (2007).
EU agenda

European Climate Change Programme.
National agenda



1st National Climate Change Strategy published
2000.
2nd Strategy (2007-2012) published April 2007.
Commitment to the Climate Change Bill 2010.
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Ultimate objective
Ultimate objective of UN convention:

stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse
gas concentrations at levels that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.
Convention strengthened with the
adoption of Kyoto Protocol in 1997; but
Protocol targets will expire at end 2012.
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International negotiations
Focused on finding a successor
agreement to the Kyoto Protocol.
EU pressing for a comprehensive treaty
based on keeping global temperature
within 2˚C of pre-industrial levels.
Copenhagen Accord (Dec ’09) contains
positive commitments on action but falls
well short of EU ambition.

Not legally binding!
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Future negotiations
16th Conference of the Parties to the
Convention – Mexico, December 2010.


EU position - a stepwise approach, building
on Copenhagen Accord.
Need decisions to anchor the Copenhagen
Accord in the UN process.
17th Conference in South Africa in 2011.

Possible agreement on new treaty.
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Independent EU ambition
Binding target to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions by 20% by 2020.

Underpinned by the 2008 EU Climate and
Energy legislative package.
Conditional offer to step up to 30% as
part of a global and comprehensive
international agreement for the post2012 period.
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National policy
National Climate Change Strategy
2007-2012 (published April 2007)


mitigation, and
adaptation.
Annual Carbon Budget

Introduced 2007 to progress policy development.
Climate Change Bill to provide, i.a.:
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
statutory basis for policies and principles; and
national mitigation and adaptation plans.
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Adaptation
IPCC definition:

adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderate
harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
Impacts are inevitable due to current
and historic emissions; adaptation is
essential.
Policy development in Ireland still at a
relatively early stage.
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Context for adaptation policy
Effective global mitigation essential.
Adaptation not an option; current and historic
emissions.
Challenges and opportunities.
Not a stand-alone issue; risk assessment/risk
management objective that must be –


informed by best available science, and
embedded in all policy areas - integration.
Awareness – influence behaviour to reduce
impacts/costs and maximise opportunities.
Responses must not be counter-productive.
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General impacts
Globally – rising temperatures, heatwaves, rising sea levels, droughts,
floods, storms and fires.
Northern Europe:


initial impacts may include benefits, such
as less demand for heating, and increased
crop yields and forest growth, but
negative impacts are likely to outweigh
benefits.
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Potential health impacts
According to IPCC, projected climate change
related exposures likely to affect the health
status of millions of people through, i.a.



increased deaths, disease and injury due to
heatwaves, floods, fires storms and droughts;
increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases;
and
altered spatial distribution of some infectious
disease vectors.
Greatest risk to people with low adaptive
capacity.
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Possible impacts in Ireland
By the end of 21st century:



average temperature projected to rise, possibly by
as much as 1-4˚C;
autumn and winter seasons will become wetter,
possibly by as much as 15-25%;.
summers will become drier, possibly by as much
as 10-18%.
Extreme events may become more frequent
and intense, e.g. storms, droughts, flooding.
Coastal zones may be particularly vulnerable
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National adaptation policy
Objective – to provide a national framework
for the integration of adaptation into decisionmaking at national and local level.
Foundation – 2009 report from EPA:

A Summary of the State of Knowledge on Climate
Change Impacts for Ireland.
Ongoing work on key issues, including
vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity.
Climate Change Bill to provide for policy
responses through adaptation planning.
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Stakeholder input to policy
Opportunities for stakeholder input:


Heads of the Climate Change Bill and the
Regulatory Impact Assessment, and
draft national adaptation framework when
published.
“A well defined and reassuring response
to potential health impacts will be a key
component of a comprehensive and
successful national adaptation
framework.” Minister Gormley, Feb ’10)
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Conclusion
Climate change – one of the greatest threats
facing mankind and a key cross-cutting policy
issue for Government.
Global GHG emissions must be halved by
2050; developed countries in aggregate must
reduce emissions by 80% or more.
Targets for 2020 and beyond will be much
more onerous than Kyoto Protocol; need for
transition to low-carbon future.
Adaptation to inevitable impacts essential.
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