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Global Warming: Estimating Future Carbon Emissions CS 1210 Spring 2004 Coming to a planet near you… “A world thrown into turmoil by drought, floods, typhoons. Whole countries rendered uninhabitable. The capital of the Netherlands submerged. The borders of the US and Australia patrolled by armies firing into waves of starving boat people desperate to find a new home. Fishing boats armed with cannon to drive off competitors. Demands for access to water and farmland backed up with nuclear weapons. Sound like the ravings of doom-saying environmental extremists? It's actually the latest Pentagon report on how to ready America for the coming climate Armageddon.” --- www.scoop.co.nz Review: Heat-Trapping Gasses Water Vapor – most powerful greenhouse gas Carbon Dioxide Methane Chlorofluorocarbons (also involved in ozone depletion) Review: Climate modeling All climate models based on heat balance Zero-dimensional model: Earth as a single point One-dimensional model: Earth as a set of latitude zones General circulation models: 4-D grid Review: Zero-D model Energy incoming from sun is constant Energy radiated out depends on T Adjust T so that Energy out = Energy in Result: T = zero degrees F! Difference between model and reality is natural greenhouse effect General Circulation Models Uses 4-D grid Limited by available supercomputer power Starley pun: need a “Congressional Resolution” Starley Thompson’s smoking gun Starley’s Grand Challenge Existing climate models: Assumed CO2 levels Climate change Models we need: Assumed human emissions CO2 levels and climate change Moving from Specified to Predicted CO2 • Currently, projections of climate change do this: Specified Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Climate Model Future Climate • More credible projections will need to do this: Specified CO2 Emissions Combined Climate and Carbon Cycle Model CO2 Concentration Future Climate Human & Natural Carbon Flows Natural carbon flows are much larger than anthropogenic flows Possible indirect effects of human activity on natural carbon flows could be very important Summary: model uncertainties Cloud processes (can heat or cool) Effects on natural carbon flows How much human-emitted carbon? Effects of global warming (possibly include THC collapse) Predicting Human Carbon Emissions Use the IPAT formula: I = PAT Future human Population: unknown Future human Affluence: unknown Future human Technology: unknown The IPCC Scenarios The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attempts to project possible future CO2 emissions IPCC generated 40 scenarios, grouped into four storylines Each storyline is a possible general trend of the history of the 21st century Storylines of 21st Century History Actual direction will depend on conscious human choices US has disproportionate influence on future direction of the world A1 storyline: successful globalization High economic growth Investment in education and technology Incomes of rich and poor nations converge Scenarios within A1 storyline B scenario: Baseline (average) case FI scenario: Fossil-fuel intensive T scenario: new technologies used (solar, wind, nuclear) A2 storyline: differentiated world Differences between rich and poor nations persist High population growth in poor nations Many resources devoted to feeding 15 billion people Few resources devoted to pollution control B1 Storyline: Global Sustainable Development Coherent international approach to sustainable development High social and environmental consciousness Economic gains invested in social institutions environment Massive income redistribution towards income equality B1 population and economics Population reaches 9 billion by 2050 Declines to 7 billion by 2100 Lower average income than A1, but higher environmental quality and less poverty B2 storyline: sustainable focus Strong emphasis on environmental problems Decentralized and community-based Less global planning and tech focus than B1 Strong education and welfare systems lead to small, well-educated population B2 Population and Economics Population reaches 10 billion by 2100 (compare to B1, with more coordination) Slightly less average income than B1 More inequality, but more local control Emission Scenario Results Baseline assumptions: no explicit climate polity Note high emissions for A1FI, lower for A1T A1T and B1 have lowest emissions No scenarios reduce CO2 to pre-2000 level Global warming: possible futures Uncertainty in models plus uncertainty in emission scenarios