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Overview of GCAP Project
October 12, 2007
Harvard University
2000-2050 change in
U.S. air quality
2000-2050
change in
climate
BC energy emissions
2000-2050
change in
pollutant
emissions
Ozone episode, July 2007
PI: Jacob
Co-Is: Byun, Fu, Mickley, Seinfeld, Streets, Rind
Also: Wu, Liao, Lam, Li, Yoshitomi, Smith-Downey, Pye, Kim, Lerner, Leibensperger
GCAP Phase 2: How will global change affect U.S. air quality and
mercury deposition rates?
GISS general circulation model
1950 Spin-up
2000
changing greenhouse gases
2025
2050
2100
MM5
Mesoscale
model
archive met fields
Precursor
emissions
from Streets
2075
GEOS-CHEM
Global chemistry model
archive
chemistry
archive
met fields
CMAQ
Regional
chemistry model
Basic blueprint for GCAP project
Compare 2000 and 2050 climate and emissions
emissions
met fields
GISS GCM
1950-2050
transient
climate
simulation
Archive
results
boundary
conditions
GEOS-CHEM
global O3-PM-Hg
simulation
emissions
boundary
conditions
MM5 mesoscale
met fields
dynamics simulation
GCAP Phase 2: How will global change affect U.S. air quality
and mercury deposition to U.S. ecosystems?
CMAQ
regional O3-PMHg simulation
GCAP Phase 1 Publications
•
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•
•
•
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Streets et al., On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions, JGR, 2004.
Mickley et al., Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution
episodes in the United States, GRL, 2004.
Liao et al., Role of climate change in global predictions of future
tropospheric ozone and aerosols, JGR, 2005.
Rind et al., Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in
the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models,
JGR, 2007.
Wu et al., Why are there large differences between models in global
budgets of tropospheric ozone?, JGR, 2007.
Liao et al., Biogenic secondary organic aerosol over the United States:
Comparison of climatological simulations with observations, JGR, 2007.
Wu et al., Effects of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the
United States, submitted, 2006.
Wu et al., Effect of 2000-2050 global change on background ozone in the
United States, in progress, 2007.
Fu et al., MICS-Asia II: Modeling gaseous pollutants and evaluating an
advanced modeling system over east Asia, Atmos. Env., 2007
Emissions
Model 2’
climate + AQ
Model 3
development
GCAP debut
and evaluation
Global change
+ AQ
Regional
model results
Some highlights of Phase 1
BC/Energy
OC/Energy
Trends in
carbonaceous
aerosol emissions:
For anthropogenic
BC, all scenarios
predict decreases
by 2050. Streets et
al., 2004.
Interhemispheric gradient in
CFC-11 in different GISS GCMs
Model 3
obs
Model E
Model 3 has more realistic
interhemispheric transport than
some of the other models. Rind
et al. 2007.
Predicted changes in surface sulfate concentrations due
solely to 2000-2100 climate change, Liao et al. 2006.
Greater precip at high latitudes
Greater OH, H2O2, and ozone
concs over urban areas
Weaker Hadley cell
Harvard results: to be
shown later today.
surface ozone
ppt
surface PM2.5
Results from GEOSChem/CMAQ interface
for China, Fu et al.
New goals for Phase 2:
•
Analyze impact of different climate and
emission scenarios on U.S. air quality (e.g.,
A1, B1, B2, ACCENT).
• Examine impact of 2000-2050 changes in
anthropogenic emissions on intercontinental
transport to the United States
•
Investigate how global change will affect
mercury deposition in U.S. ecosystems.
.
•
Improve coupling between global and
regional climate models.
JJA 1990s temperatures
from the GISS-GCM and
MM5, mean over 5
summers, Lynn et al.
GCAP Phase 2 flow plan.
2007
Arrows show interaction, not deadlines.
2008
2009
Argonne
Global Hg emissions
GISS
Model 3 development + support
Harvard
GCAP A1, B1, B2
Caltech
Aerosol evaluation and analysis
UHouston
UTenn
MM5 nudging +
stepwise downscaling
2010
Regional Hg emissions
O3 + Hg analysis
ACCENT
scenarios
MM5 STE and
tropopause heights
Regional chemical + Hg simulations
ACCENT scenarios
Year 1 – official start date May 07
Argonne:
• Develop global emission projections for mercury for different IPCC scenarios
Harvard/ GISS:
• Run GISS GCM 1950-2050 simulations for IPCC A2, B1, and B2 scenarios
• Interpret results for on-line pollution tracers
• Archive output for GEOS-Chem and MM5
Harvard/ Caltech:
• Run GEOS-Chem ozone-aerosol simulations for 2000 and 2050: ~5-year
ensembles, different IPCC scenarios, interpret results
• Archive output for CMAQ
U Tenn/ Harvard/ Caltech:
• Run CMAQ simulations for each IPCC scenario, interpret results
U Houston:
• Improve GISS-MM5 dynamical interface through stepwise downscaling
• Investigate the effect of in-domain nudging with GISS met fields in MM5
Year 2
All:
• Continue and publish work from Year 1
Argonne:
• Downscale mercury emission projections in the United States for CMAQ
Harvard:
• Run GEOS-Chem mercury simulations for the 2000 and 2050 GCM
atmospheres (5-year ensembles) of each IPCC scenario, interpret results.
• Archive output for CMAQ.
UTenn/ Harvard:
• Run CMAQ mercury simulations for the 2000 and 2050 GCM
atmospheres, interpret results
U Houston:
• Investigate and reconcile GISS and MM5 simulations of tropopause height
and stratosphere-troposphere exchange
Year 3
All:
• Continue and publish work from Year 2
Harvard/U Tenn/ Caltech:
• Run 2000-2050 GEOS-Chem using the ACCENT scenarios
• Downscale chemistry using CMAQ
• Interpret results
Tasks/ Issues leftover from GCAP phase 1:
• Harvard: Conduct EOF analyses of ozone regional variability in the
United States – on the back burner (Leibensperger)
• U Tenn: Run CMAQ with 2000 and 2050 climate – ongoing
• Harvard/ Caltech/ U Tenn: Run ozone and PM simulations for 2050 B1
climate – moved to GCAP phase 2.
Other tasks, goals?
Understand ozone response to temperature change in Southeast U.S.
Analyze trends in cyclone variability and relationship to pollution episodes.
Explore correlations of PM2.5 with met variables for potential future-climate
statistical projections (already being done for ozone).
Improve GCM-GEOS-chem interface: boundary layer height, vertical
diffusion. . .
Compare IPCC near-term emissions trajectories with 2000-2007 observed
trends.
GCAP Phase 2 flow plan.
2007
2008
2009
Argonne
Global Hg emissions
GISS
Model 3 development + support
Harvard
GCAP A1, B1, B2
Caltech
Aerosol evaluation and analysis
UHouston
UTenn
MM5 nudging +
stepwise downscaling
2010
Regional Hg emissions
O3 + Hg analysis
ACCENT
scenarios
MM5 STE and
tropopause heights
Regional chemical + Hg simulations
ACCENT scenarios
2007 Nobel Prizes recognize Atmospheric Sciences!
For chemistry, the winner is
Garhard Ertl “for pioneering
work in surface chemistry, a
specialty that . . . sheds light
on the activity . . . on the
surface of ice crystals in the
stratosphere.“ NYT
For peace, winners
are Al Gore and IPCC.