Download Is Climate Change a Reality? - European Capacity Building Initiative

The ECBI Regional Workshop
ON
CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
Rajendrapur, Gazipur, Bangladesh
7-9 AUGUST 2006
Brief Presentation on
Climate Change: Basic Issues
(Adaptation, Mitigation and Negotiation)
Presented by
Dr. A. Atiq Rahman
Executive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)
Visiting Professor, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Tufts University & Harvard University, USA
1
Sources of GHGs
Energy Sector
• Energy Industry
• Manufacturing Industries
• Transport
• Residential Sector
• Commercial
• Agriculture
Agriculture Sector
• Crop Agriculture
• Livestock and Manure ManagementLanduse Change and Forestry
• Conversion of Land
• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation
2
Is Climate Change a Reality?
Phases
•
Phase I (80ies): does Climate Change occur
and how much
•
Phase II (90ies): what are the impacts and
vulnerabilities, emission reduction (mitigation)
•
Phase III (ongoing): adaptation
In Bangladesh awareness, concern and acceptance are
growing
3
Robust Findings
(from 3rd assessment report)

Adverse impacts are expected to be more in
tropical and sub-tropical zones and fall
disproportionately upon developing countries and
poor persons within those countries

Adaptation
 Has the potential t reduce adverse impacts of
climate change and can often produce
immediate ancillary benefit, but will not prevent
all damage
 Can complement mitigation in a cost-effective
strategy to reduce climate change risks
4
Most Vulnerable Sectors and
Adaptation Options
Vulnerable Sectors
 Coastal zone resources
 Freshwater resources
 Agriculture
 Human health
 Ecosystem and Biodiversity
Area of Adaptation
 Physical
 Institutional
 Social
5
Responding to
Climate Change:
The Basic Concepts:
Politics & Negotiations
6
UNFCCC: The Climate Convention
 Two Objectives:
 Stabilize Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentration in the
atmosphere from anthropogenic intervention
 Sustainable Development
 Food Security
 Ecosystem vulnerability
 Key Issues are:
 Rate of Change
 Equity
 Financial Mechanism
 North-South Debate
 Historical Responsibility versus Liability
7
Approaches to solutions and actions
 Mitigation


Kyoto Protocol (the first limited action)
Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI, Emissions
Trading)
 Adaptation


First potential for funding
NAPA (National Action Plan for Adaption)
8
Southern Perspectives
 Is there a “South”?
 What is a Southern Perspective? There are many, in
fact…
 G77+China





NICs (potentially large emitters): China, India, Brazil,
Indonesia, South Africa
High per capita emitters: South Korea, Singapore,
Malaysia
OPEC
AOSIS: Threatened and extremely vulnerable
LDCs: Poorer and Vulnerable
9
Developing Countries
 Development Priority
 Climate Sensitive Development
 Decarbonization of Production/Consumption
Processes
 Institutional Development & Capacity Building




Agenda Setting
Research
Negotiations
Local and (or versus?) Global Good
10
Evolution and Engagement of the
South
 INC (1-11)
 Rio Declaration → UNFCCC
 Berlin Mandate (COP-1)
 Kyoto Protocol and Mechanisms
 Marrakech Accord: Adaptation
 Beyond Kyoto
11
North-South Dialogue
Principle of “Common but Differentiated Responsibility”
Those who committed MUST ACT
1.
2.
•
•
•
Early Beginning
Inadequate
No-hurt syndrome
KP was an Intra-North Dialogue First Commitment
Period
Committed Emitters vs. Emerging Emitters
Kyoto Mechanisms:
3.
4.
5.
•
•
Real GHG Reduction
Not Transfer of Carbon
12
Climate Convention Signed:
But Whose Climate?
Kyoto Protocol agreed:
Who reduces?
13
Ethical Basis for Equity
Two Concepts:
1.
2.






All human beings are equal (UN)
All people must have equal rights to global
commons including the atmosphere and oceans
(GFEP Declaration, UNCED)
Per capita entitlement concept
Subsistence vs. non-subsistence GHG
(greenhouse gas) emissions (CH4, CO2)
Cooking vs. Car mileage
Right to Sustainable Development vs.
Responsibility to Sustainable Development
At what rate is mass death is genocide?!
Slavery, poverty convention!
14
Issues and Concerns
 Responsibility for Climate Change and Role of North
 Is it new for Environmental Colonialism?
 Capacity Building” Who will pay?
 Role of Government
 Is it an Unfair Trade: Climate Change is a new
dimension
 Small Countries: Low Polluters – can they benefit
from Climate Change
15
Issues and Concerns
 Per capita allocation
 Future:
 1990 Baseline
 Per capita Annex 1 emissions when reached –
graduate
 Is it compatible with global reduction need
 Ecological Integrity
 Uncertainties
 In Science (IPCC)
 Costing: of Actions, Non-Actions
 Beyond Kyoto (Second [+] Commitment Period[s])
16
Northern and Southern views
 Northern view: the South must participate
 Southern view:
 The North is the cause of climate change (in
terms of historical emissions)
 The North is not doing enough
 Kyoto is in trouble




US: abandoned its commitments
EU: Slow to react
First inadequate small steps
Science (IPCC) requires rapid reduction
17
Country case studies of the South
 Bangladesh: Most Vulnerable






Displacement
Ecosystem Threatened
Threatening Development
Food Security
Doing a lot
CDM and Adaptation (NAPA)
18
Country case studies of the South
 Maldives
 Threatened
 Can do very little
 Sovereignty in question
 Nepal
 Elevated rate of snow melt
 Glacial Loss
 Ecosystem threatened
 Social Instability
19
Typology of Natural Disaster Likely
Impact of Climate Change











Floods and inundations
Increase
Saline Intrusion
Cyclones, Typhoons, Storm Surges, Tornadoes, Hurricanes
Droughts
Pests/Locusts
Disease: Outbreaks and Vectors
Forest Fires
Landslides
Heat Waves/Cold Waves, Temperature Extremes
Sea Level Rise
Riverbank Erosion
None
20
 Key Stressors
 Temperature Increase
 SLR (Sea Level Rise)
 Population Shift
 Carbon Concentration Increase
 Sectors
 Extent of Events
 Intensity
 Frequency
 Desertification/Drought
 Salt Water/Flood/Inundation
 Ecosystem: Extent
 Food Security - Poverty
21
A preliminary vulnerability assessment
for agriculture
 Identification of the crops, geographical regions,
and rural populations most likely to be vulnerable
 Description of the vulnerable crops, regions and
groups as well as the reasons for their
vulnerability
 Analysis of analogous regions (e.g., warmer
regions of the country) under current climate
regimes to help identify implications for future
response to climate change
22
Challenges ahead
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Universal participation
Low emission/high development paradigm
Capacity in the South
Science to Action
Technology funding
Government/Private Sector/NGOs collaboration
Kyoto without ratification
Building on good practices
23
The Realities of Climate Change
 Emerging Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
(IPCC)
 Ground Realities:




Increasing Awareness of communities
Increasing Extreme Weather Events
Experiences of Coping with Climate Variability
How to respond to Climate Change
 All developments assumed Climate Change
 Agriculture
 Infrastructure
 Ecosystem Management
 Precipitation
24
Responses
 Global: IPCC Understanding Science
and Reducing Uncertainty


Climate Convention
 Inter-government
 Block Negotiations
 Lowest Common Denominator
 Big on talks, low on action
Kyoto Protocol: First Small Step
 Bogged Down
 South is compromising
lowering bar
 Global risk increasing
25
Responses

National: Create Awareness
 Some Actions, More Reports
 Institutionalization
 Some Integration in Sectors

Private Sector: Early Initiations of CDM
 Delay dampen enthusiasms
 New Climate Change Marketing
 Some feel threatened others look for
opportunities
26
Responses

NGOs:Greater Research

Raising Concerns and Awareness

Equity Issues Highlighted

Lower Thrust on Commitment, more on
Technical Options

Increasingly reaching from Environment
to Development

Appreciation of Mitigation and
adaptation

Southern NGOs, mostly left
unsupported
27
Disaster Management
Impact-Adaptation Relationship
Impact
=
Event
X

Baseline
Conditions

X

Intensity of
Event
Adaptive
Capacity
28