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Current State of Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Bob Watson Part I Climate Change and Projected Impacts Most (greater than 50%) of the Observed Warming of the Last 50 Years is Attributable to Human Activities (a) Observed and modeled changes disagree between 1950 and 2000 with natural forcing alone (c) (b) observed and modeled changes disagree between 1920 and 1970 with anthropogenic forcing alone Observed and modeled changes in are in good agreement with natural and anthropogenic forcing Climate Change • Climate change is both a development and global environmental issue, which undermines: • environmental sustainability • poverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poor • human health • national and regional security • Climate change is an inter- and intra-generational equity issue: • developing countries and poor people in developing countries are the most vulnerable • the actions of today will affect future generations because of the long life-times of the greenhouse gases and the inertia within the climate system Atmospheric composition Since the industrial era began, human activities have increased the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which tend to warm the Earth, and sulfate aerosols, which tend to cool the Earth, primarily due to energy and land management practices Climate Change • The Earths climate has changed, in part due to human activities, and is projected to continue to change, globally and regionally: • Warmer temperatures • Changing precipitation • Higher sea levels • Retreating glaciers • Reduced arctic sea ice • More frequent extreme weather events • heat waves, floods and droughts Surface Temperature A mid-range projection of change from 1990 to 2100 – a global average of 3.1oC The full projected range for changes in global average temperature is 1.4oC to 5.8oC Observed changes from 1976 to 1999 Projected changes from 1990 to 2100 Precipitation Projected changes in precipitation from 1990 to 2100 Observed changes in precipitation from 1900 to 2000 Extreme Weather Events Model Prediction Confidence in Observed Change Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days 66-90% Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all land areas 90-99% Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas 90-99% Increased heat index over most land areas 90-99% More intense precipitation events over many areas 90-99% Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought – mid-latitude continental interiors 66-90% Recent Findings Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts of climate change A number of increased concerns have arisen: • Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food chain • A regional increase of 2.7oC above present (associated with a temperature rise of about 1.5oC above today or 2oC above preindustrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-cap • An increase in ocean surface temperature of 1oC is likely to lead to extensive coral bleaching • Reversal of the land carbon sink – possible by the end of the Century • Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes more likely above 3oC – the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs of instability • The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or even shut down Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems The poor will face the greatest challenges from climate change. 100% The rate has double in this decade 80% Percentage affected 2 Billion people in developing countries were affected by a climate related disaster in the 1990s. LDC 60% Dev'ing CIT 40% Dev'ed 20% 4,000 Number affected (Millions) 0% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 3,000 Dev'ed CIT 2,000 Dev'ing LDC 1,000 - 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 40 to 80% of the population in developing countries versus a few % in more developed countries Ethiopia A water rich developing country, but with GDP still tied to yearly rainfall variations Climate variability is already a major impediment to development. 25 20 15 10 5 0 % 0 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 -20 1982 -5 -10 -15 -40 rainfall variability -60 -20 GDP growth -25 Ag GDP growth -80 -30 year Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia From Claudia Sadoff WHO estimates that >150,000 people are dying each year due to climate change Wheat now being grown in areas 2 C cooler and 4.5 C warmer than in the 1920s. Shows rapid adaptation in wheat Pew Climate change is a development issue – right now and will become even more so in the future Climate Change Human-induced climate change is projected to: Decrease water availability and water quality in many aridand semi-arid regions – increased risk of floods and droughts in many regions Decrease the reliability of hydropower and biomass production in some regions Increase the incidence of vector- (e.g., malaria and dengue) and water-borne (e.g., cholera) diseases, as well as heat stress mortality, threats nutrition in developing countries, increase in extreme weather event deaths Decrease agricultural productivity for almost any warming in the tropics and sub-tropics and adverse impacts on fisheries Adversely effect ecological systems, especially coral reefs, and exacerbate the loss of biodiversity % change in runoff by 2050 Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become significantly drier Crop yields are projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudes Percentage change in average crop yields for a mid-range climate change scenario Even as soon as 2020 crop yields in SSA and parts of Asia are projected to decrease by up to 20% Estimated 10-15% of the world’s species will be committed to extinction over next 30 years independent of climate change Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and services – provisioning, regulating, supporting and cultural Climate change will exacerbate the loss of biodiversity Climate Change and Conflict • Tens of millions of people displaced Low lying deltaic areas Small Island States • Food shortages where there is hunger and famine today • Water shortages in areas already with water shortages • Natural resources depleted (e.g., coral reefs, forests), loss of ecological goods and services • Increased incidence of disease • Increased incidence of severe weather events Climate Change, coupled with other local and global environmental issues can lead to local and regional conflict Part II Political Situation and Adaptation and Mitigation The Kyoto Protocol • All industrialized governments, except the US and Australia have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which contains: • A commitment to reduce GHG emissions, on average, by about 5% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990 • The flexibility mechanisms – carbon trading • Land-use, land-use change and forestry activities • Funding mechanisms to assist developing countries • The US stated that the Kyoto Protocol was flawed policy because it was neither fair nor effective and not in the best interests of the US • scientific uncertainties – Article 3 (precautionary principle) • high compliance costs – inconsistent with IPCC • ineffective without the participation of the large developing countries Beyond Kyoto • Without the US taking real action to limit their GHG emissions it is doubtful that there will be a second commitment period – some OECD countries will withdraw and large developing countries, i.e., China and India will not be willing consider any commitments • Without a commitment of governments to limit GHG emissions beyond 2012 (the end of the first commitment period) the carbon market will remain soft and the private sector is unlikely to enter in a meaningful manner • The real question for governments is whether to: • set an emissions target for a second commitment period (2013-2017) or whether to set a long-term stabilization target for climate change (e.g., 2oC above the pre-industrial level) or some other long-term framework • this would require a global emissions target – the challenge would be to agree on intermediate emissions targets and an equitable allocation of emissions rights Warming resulting from different stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases pre-industrialized level - 280 ppm, current level - 370 ppm Even if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide was stabilized at today’s level, the Earth’s temperature would still increase by over 0.5oC 10 9 8 The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent (i.e., taking into account other GHGs) is close to 450ppm. 7 6 Temperature change relative to 1990 (C ) Temperature change at equilibrium 5 The figure demonstrates that even if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide was stabilized at 450-550 ppm, a significant increase in temperature is projected, thus adaptation is an important part of a climate strategy 4 3 2 1 0 450 550 650 750 850 950 1000 Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm) Conclusions from Exeter Meeting Probability analysis suggests that to limit warming to 2oC above pre-industrial levels with a relatively high certainty requires the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide to stay below 400ppm Stabilization of the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide at 450ppm would imply a medium likelihood of staying below 2oC above pre-industrial levels If the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide were to rise to 550ppm it is unlikely that warming would stay below 2oC above pre-industrial levels The World Energy Outlook (2004) predicts that carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 63% over 2002 levels by 2030. This means that in the absence and urgent and strenuous actions to reduce GHG emissions in the next 20 years, the world will almost certainly be committed to a warming of between 0.5oC and 2oC relative to today by 2050, i.e., about 1.1oC and 2.6oC above preindustrial A climate risk approach Climate risk management means that we should assess and act upon, the threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change. What can be done? Change farming systems Strengthen infrastructure Conserve natural buffers (eg forests including mangroves) Store more water Improve disaster preparedness Provide insurance? Migrate But all have downsides How are we going? A few developed countries are considering comprehensive adaptation plans Several studies suggest that about 40% of ODA projects & development loans are subject to some climate risk. But few (2%) consider climate risk in their design But everyone now wants to “mainstream” adaptation Pitfalls to mainstreaming adaptation Not appreciating the immediacy “Projectisation” of adaptation • Sees adaptation as a series of projects but separates adaptation form core development planning • Often embroils adaptation in institutional rivalries “Poker chip” in the climate negotiations Seeking the ideal at the expense of the pragmatic • E.g. Seeking only adaptation – mitigation synergies Endless loop of “better information” • Downscaling & impact modelling An adapted world A warmer world More climate extremes and disasters Greater preparedness to deal with them More climate & water awareness (& more dams) Changed agricultural zones Greater threats to and management of natural habitats Physical or natural barriers? Forced migration Potential Actions to Mitigate GHG Emissions Energy Efficiency and Conservation: Efficient vehicles, Reduced use of vehicles, Efficient buildings, and Efficient coal plant Fuel shift: Gas power for coal power CO2 Capture and Storage: Capture CO2 at power plant; Capture CO2 at H2 plant; Capture CO2 at coal-to- synfuels plant; --- geological storage Nuclear fission: Nuclear power for coal power Renewable Electricity and Fuels: Wind power for coal power; PV power for coal power; Wind H2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline in hybrid car; Biomass fuel for fossil fuel Forests and Agricultural Soils: Reduced deforestation, plus reforestation, afforestation and new plantations; and Conservation tillage Policy Instruments Policies, which may need regional or international agreement, include: • Energy pricing strategies and taxes • Removing subsidies that increase GHG emissions • Internalizing the social costs of environmental degradation • Tradable emissions permits--domestic and global • Voluntary programs • Regulatory programs including energy-efficiency standards • Incentives for use of new technologies during market build-up • Education and training such as product advisories and labels Accelerated development of technologies requires intensified R&D by governments and the private sector Clean Energy and Development: Towards an Investment Framework Covers three interlocking and complementary issues: the need for, and investment requirements of, meeting modern energy needs for developing countries over the long term in a manner that provides attention to efficiency and local environmental considerations; the additional steps needed in the energy, transport and industrial sectors to address climate change mitigation through the reduction of greenhouse gases; and the impact of climate change and the need for developing countries to adequately adapt to Conclusions • • • Increased access to energy is critical for poverty alleviation and economic growth Climate change undermines development and environmental sustainability Access to affordable energy while also addressing climate change will require a collaborative effort involving governments, private sector, financial institutions, NGOs, and the research community • Increased public and private sector funding for energy S&T • Innovative public-private partnerships and technology transfer are needed • • • The Bank can play a critical role in assisting client countries reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate variability and change Developing a robust carbon market can reduce emission reduction costs in OECD and improve access to new technologies in developing countries - carbon financing is a source of new financing (non-ODA) There are cost-effective and equitable solutions, but political will and moral leadership is needed