* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Slide 1
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Canada wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Living with our changing climate Session: Adaptation and initiatives supporting adaptation CSIRO Climate Research and IOCI CSIRO Climate Capabilities CSIRO’s long-standing multi-divisional research and expertise: Ocean processes and dynamics Atmospheric processes Atmospheric chemistry Boundary layer and land-surface interactions Hydrology Climate modelling Climate impacts Pests and invasive species Climate and water Climate and ecosystem/agriculture responses Mitigation and abatement of greenhouse gas emissions CSIRO Climate Capabilities Core CSIRO Climate Research and Applications: Observations, process studies, system studies, climate model development, decision support systems, applications to all sectors of the economy (from urban to rural, from industry to ecosystems) Wealth from Oceans Flagship: Developing Ocean Prediction Capability Water for a Healthy Country Flagship: Ensuring Sustainable Use of Australia’s Water Resources Energy Transformed Flagship: Building Capacity for Greenhouse Mitigation Australian Climate Change Science Program: Building National Capacity to face Climate Change CSIRO Climate Partnerships CSIRO’s key partnerships: Australian Bureau of Meteorology Australian Universities Commonwealth Government: Australian Greenhouse Office Royal Australian Navy WA Government: Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Western Australian Marine Science Institution State and Territory Governments & Industry clients Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Conceived, developed in and for Western Australia; highly effective partnership (WA State Agencies; CSIRO; Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre; Bureau of Meteorology WA Regional Office) Combines observations, modelling and applications: creating new knowledge about Western Australia’s climate Focussed on the south-west Building regional capacity Strategic research to assist decision making by the State partners Science priorities determined by a user-driven panel Climate Change Adaptation Approaches to climate change adaptation: Requires research on both climate change and climate variability Requires an integrated multisectoral approach Is directed at identifying vulnerability Is not a linear process We can’t afford to wait until the science is ‘complete’ We can learn from current adaptive strategies Moving from past forms of projections to probabilistic projections and risk assessment methodologies Climate Change Adaptation Identifying vulnerability Stationary Climate & Coping Range Changing Climate Vulnerable Coping Range Vulnerable Using adaptation to mitigate vulnerability Stationary Climate & Coping Range Changing Climate Vulnerable Adaptation Coping Range Planning Horizon Vulnerable Climate Change Adaptation New methodologies do not follow linear, sequential approaches Climate system Impacted activity Socioeconomic system Current climate Current adaptations Future climate Future adaptations Climate Change Adaptation Four stages of adaptation: Autonomous adaptation (we are still within coping range) Generic adaptation (we need interventions, but the generic level is sufficient) Specific adaptation (interventions have to be specific to industries and to locations) Transformative adaptation (when the change is too far outside the current range, hard decisions will have to be made) Mitigation may help stave off the need for transformative adaptation CSIRO Climate Change Projections CSIRO climate projections 2030 & 2070 Probabilistic Projections Probability of a 1 degree warming by 2030 9 GCM Patterns 6 IPCC Emission Scenarios 3 Climate Sensitivities 162 Scenarios P>1oC Warming Probabilistic Projections Probability of a decrease in rainfall larger than 0% by 2030 >0% Decrease Probabilistic Projections Probability of a decrease in rainfall larger than 5% by 2030 >5% Decrease CSIRO Activities in the West Regional climate change, regional climate variability & SW WA rainfall/water resources Gnangara Mound, Avon valley water Indian Ocean dynamics, Indonesian throughflow, and impact on WA climate Greenhouse mitigation by reducing methane emissions from livestock Livestock and pasture production for the future Sustainable plantation forestry, carbon sequestration Air Quality investigations for Wagerup, Burrup Peninsula Oil & Gas Technology (Energy Research Alliance) Marine Research (Strategic Research Fund for the Marine Environment) Western Australian Marine Science Institution WA Stakeholders & Collaborators CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research WA Government (whole of Gov’t, and specific departments: Fisheries, Conservation and Land Management, EPA, ...) WA Universities (Curtin, Western Australia, Murdoch, Edith Cowan: 14 students) Coastal and Aquaculture CRCs Water Corporation Woodside Energy Alcoa Worsley Alumina Western Power Griffin Energy Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Report Priority vulnerable systems and regions Ecosystems and Biodiversity Agriculture Water Supply Settlements and Emergency Services Energy Regions: Cairns & Great Barrier Reef Murray Darling Basin South West Western Australia “regional adaptation planning requires coordination across all levels of government and the involvement of industry, scientists and community leaders” Allen Consulting Group