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Climate Change:
Adapting for the
long term
CFCAS
presentation to
Senate Ctte. – 18/2/03
Professor G.A. McBean, Ph.D., FRSC
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
The University of Western Ontario
and
Chair, Board of Trustees
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
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The Climate Change
Issue
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Dr. R. Watson – Chair of IPCC
speaking to COP 6
“The overwhelming majority of scientific experts,
whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties
exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced
climate change is inevitable. … the frequency and
magnitude of these type of events: heat waves,
floods, droughts, fires and extreme weather events
leading to significant economic losses and loss of
life, are predicted to increase in a warmer world”
2100
NOW
Risk from
Extreme
events
Adaptation to reduce vulnerability
and gain opportunities
5/24/2017
4
IPCC Assessment
90-99%
Intense
Precipitation
Drought
66-90%
We need to refine the probabilities, risks
and understand the vulnerability.
Global Impacts due to Extreme
Events
$50B (US)
13
16
29
44
72 events
3
4
Adaptation to reduce
impacts and gain benefits
What should be the balance of
expenditure between adaptation
and mitigation?
2
1
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The Delhi (CoP8) Ministerial Declaration
on
Climate Change and Sustainable Development
• …promote sustainable development. …
• (e) Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate
change is of high priority for all countries.
Developing countries are particularly
vulnerable, especially the least developed
countries and small island developing States.
Adaptation requires urgent attention and
action on the part of all countries. …
Knowledge of the Climate
System
Increasing GHG concentrations
Significance of future climate change
Magnitude/rate of global temperature, precipitation
and sea level change
Adaptation strategies
depend on better
Amplified polar/continental warming
knowledge of:
We know more Change in regional rainfall patterns/extreme events
than enough to
Detailed characteristics of local change
justify action.
Discernible human influence
Local Impacts
High
Confidence Level
Low
The Canadian Foundation for
Climate and Atmospheric
Sciences
• Established in 2000
– Budget 2000 awarded one-time $60 million grant
to be disbursed over six years.
• to foster scientific research on:
–
–
–
–
the climate system, climate change,
extreme weather,
air quality and
marine environmental prediction.
Making a Difference Through Science
Weather and climate are a continuum
100 years
Climate Change
Climate-models/analysis
El Nino
1 year
1 month
10 days
1 day
1 hour
1 minute
Canadian Weather Drought Greenhouse gases
Watershed
Research Program
Levels
Winter Storms
Hail-lightning
Flash flood
Tornado
Local
City
Regional
Continental Global
Strategies for Adaptation to climate
change must be based on:
-understanding the present relationships and
vulnerabilities
-projecting ahead the changing climate and weather
-working with communities to reduce vulnerabilities
We need to have a:
-strong observational base
-science of climate/weather prediction – university
and governments
Need toobserving
know climate of Networks
atmosphere above
Basic
Diameter of circles of representativeness is 215 km.
ALERT
EUREKA
closed
MOULD BAY
RESOLUTE BAY
INUVIK
HALL BEACH
CAMBRIDGE BAY
NORMAN WELLS
IQALUIT
WHITEHORSE
500 km
CORAL HARBOUR
BAKER LAKE
Fall
KUUJJUAQ
FORT NELSON FORT SMITH
INUKJUAK
GOOSE BAY
CHURCHILL
ST JOHN'S
LA GRANDE IV
PRINCE GEORGE
PORT HARDY
KELOWNA
SEPT-ILES
EDMONTON STONY PLAIN
THE PAS
SASKATOON
PORT AUX BASQUES
MOOSONEE
PICKLE LAKE
SABLE ISLAND
MANIWAKI
Environment Canada/Atmospheric Environment/National Weather Services Directorate
YARMOUTH
96-02-12
The capacity of the
Meteorological
Service’s has been
diminished over the
past decade:
- stations closed
- staff reductions
- research curtailed
Millions
Budgets
AEP Budget
EC – red
EC Budget
MSC - blue
$800
600
400
200
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
CFCAS has committed about two-thirds of its funds
It now has under review proposals for
8 research network and 45 grants
All funds will be expended by 2007.
We need investments for the long-term.
CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY
Emissions reduction
strategy
-long-term
-Innovation agenda
Support is needed to
both government
agencies and to
universities to build our
science base.
Adaptation Strategy
– Invest to directly help
Canadians
– Protecting Canadians
from harm and
information to maximize
economic efficiency
– Based on better
predictions of change
from minutes-yearsdecades
To inform and warn Canadians about the future
so they can make better decisions.
The End
CFCAS