* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download alliance.columbia.edu
Urban heat island wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
William Solecki, CUNY – Hunter College EDF Workshop - Columbia University 15 October 2014 1 Outline • Smart Cities and Urban Environmental Management • Urbanization and Climate Change • Big Data and the Response to Hurricane Sandy 2 Urban Science (Urbanization Science) • • • Urban systems – energy, water, land use, transportation, food System dynamics – flows, inputs, stress, resilience, transition, and transformation Focus on speed, direction, volume Taxi trips in an hour. Taxis are valuable sensors for city life. In NYC, there are on average 500,000 taxi trips each day. Information associated with taxi trips thus provides unprecedented insight into many different aspects of a city life, from economic activity and human behavior to mobility patterns. This figure shows the taxi trips in Manhattan on May 1 from 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. The blue dots correspond to pickups and the orange ones correspond to drop-offs. Note the absence of taxis along 6th avenue, indicating that traffic was blocked during this period. (Source: An upcoming article titled “Visual Exploration of Big Spatio-Temporal Urban Data: A Study of New York City Taxi Trips,” by Nivan Ferreira, Jorge Poco, Huy Vo, Juliana Freire, and Claudio T. Silva. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics (TVCG), 2013) 4 Urban Science, Environment, and Big Data • • • Resource use efficiency – smart buildings, transportation, energy Outside-of-the-box ideas – water supply as energy source, solar energy; opportunities for value capture Emergency response and resilience – organize Global Urbanization and Climate Change 6 Global Urbanization – 1960 Global Urbanization - 2011 Global Urbanization – 2025 IPCC – AR5 Climate Change -September 2013 Global Urbanization – Inland and Coastal Locations 1970 Global Urbanization – Inland and Coastal Locations 2011 Global Urbanization – Inland and Coastal Locations 2025 Smart Cities and Extreme Weather Events • Emergency response and preparedness • Disaster risk reduction • Climate change adaptation 15 Hurricane Sandy, 28 October 2012 16 Source: NOAA 17 Impacts and Associated Vulnerabilities 18 Urban Lifelines and Infrastructure System Failures • Water Supply • Electricity • Transportation • Gasoline Supply • Pharmacy – Drug Supply 19 General Observations about Impacts and Vulnerabilities • Cascading system impacts • Uneven geography – not all on the coast, but most impactful on coast • Role of ecosystem protection opportunities – lost and found – e.g. wetlands • Highly complex systems require significant redundancy and context specific vulnerabilities – e.g. health care system • A lot more impact and vulnerability 20 work to Tweets – Just Before to Just After Sandy http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671188/map-how-new-york-tweetedduring-hurricane-sandy Hurricane Sandy-related tweets across the United States Source: Shelton et al. 2014 22 Social Media Check-Ins – Showing Hurricane Sandy Outages http://blog.gnip.com/tag/hurricane-sandy/ PlaNYC 2013 – Released 11 June 2013 26 NYC Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency • • Addresses how to rebuild New York City to be more resilient in the wake of Sandy but with a long‐term focus on: – 1) how to rebuild locally; and – 2) how to improve citywide infrastructure and building resilience A comprehensive report in June 2013 addresses these challenges by investigating three key questions: – What happened during and after Sandy and why? Approximately 1,000,000 building and related structures in New York City – The City maintains a GIS parcel data base 30 Future Climate Risk in New York City Dynamic Context for Big Data Application 31 Released 11 June 2013; available at CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities (CISC) website – www.cunysustainablecities.org Provides the updated climate science information and foundation for PlaNYC 2013 32 Extreme Events 2020s Baseline (19712000) Number of days/year with maximum temperature at or above 90°F Heat waves¹ ² and cold weather events Intense Precipitation¹ 2050s Lowestimate Middle range Highestimate Lowestimate Middle range Highestimate 18 24 26 to 31 33 32 39 to 52 57 Number of heat waves/year 2 3 3 to 4 4 4 5 to 7 7 Average heat wave duration (in days) 4 5 5 to 5 5 5 5 to 6 6 Number of days/year with minimum temperature at or below 32°F 72 50 52 to 58 60 37 42 to 48 52 Number of days/year with rainfall at or above 2 inches 3 3 3 to 4 5 3 4 to 4 5 ¹Based on 35 GCMs and two Representative Concentration Pathways. Baseline data are from the NOAA NCDC USHCN, Version 2 (Menne et al., 2009). 30-year mean values from model-based outcomes. ²Heat waves are defined as three more consecutive days with maximum temperatures at or above 90°F. 33 Extreme Events The NPCC developed qualitative projections where future changes are too uncertain to provide local quantitative projections Spatial Scale of Projection Direction of Change by 2050s Likelihood¹ Sources North Atlantic Basin Unknown -- -- Number of intense North Atlantic hurricanes Basin Increase More likely than not USGCRP, 2013; IPCC, 2012 Extreme hurricane North Atlantic winds Basin Increase More likely than not USGCRP, 2013; IPCC, 2012 Intense hurricane precipitation Increase More likely than not USGCRP, 2013; IPCC, 2012 Tropical Cyclones Total number North Atlantic Basin Nor’easters NYC area Unknown -IPCC 2012; Colle et al. 2013 Number of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin will more likely than not increase ¹ Probability of occurrence and likelihood defined as (IPCC, 2007): Virtually certain; >99% probability of occurrence, Extremely likely; >95% probability of occurrence, Very likely; >90% probability of occurrence, Likely; >66% probability of occurrence, More likely than not; >50% probability of occurrence, 34 About as likely as not; 33 to 66% probability of occurrence. Source: PlaNYC 2013 35 Source: PlaNYC 2013 36 Source: PlaNYC 2013 37 Source: PlaNYC 2013 38 SREXa Climate Related Shifts in Extreme Events - 1 a. IPCC Special Report on Extreme Events SREX Climate Related Shifts in Extreme Events - 2 SREX Climate Related Shifts in Extreme Events - 3 Indicators and Monitoring Smart Cities, Big Data, and Climate Change Adaptation 42 Monitoring for Extreme Events • • • Flexible and mobile monitoring Responsive to the structure and character of the event – UHI, combined sewer outflow Formal (including adjustment of existing systems) and informal (community based) monitoring 43 Climate Risk, Extreme Events, and Impacts as Indicators • Acute - established • Chronic - established • New and Emerging Hazards New York City Panel on Climate Change Indicators Design and Process Decision Criteria (to the extent possible): Process of Establishing Indicators: • Scientifically defensible • Link to conceptual framework • Defined relationship to climate • Scalable indicators • • Build on or augment existing agency efforts Current and leading indicators Start with the questions to be addressed by indicators Identify stakeholders in diverse institutions Engage stakeholders (producers and users) from development to implementation to evaluation Prototype indicators to establish priorities for implementation New indicators will be assessed and tested on an ongoing basis Evaluate the system NPCC Indicators and Monitoring – Other Concerns What are the key indicator questions – specifically what role and purpose should the indicator serve? Sample questions include… How do we know that climate is changing and how is the climate projected to change in the future? What important climate impacts and opportunities are occurring or are predicted to occur in the future? How are we preparing for rapid change or extreme events related to climate? How are measures of adaption over longer time frames? What are our fundamental vulnerabilities and resiliencies to climate variability and change? What are key components and systems for which indicators and measures are necessary? Climate system Infrastructure systems Social and public health systems CONFIDENTIAL Tipping Points and Thresholds in Urban SystemsApplication for Climate Change Indicators and Monitoring An New York State Metropolitan Transportation Authority employee fills an "AquaDam," placed across the Long Island Rail Road tracks at New York City's Penn Station, on Saturday, August 27, 2011. The temporary barrier was installed to help keep flood waters xstirred up by Hurricane Irene out of Penn Station's tunnels. (AP Photo/NY Metropolitan Transportation Authority, John Kettel) Conclusions: Connections between Smart Cities and Climate Change • Timing of impacts • Rate of change • Emergent vulnerabilities • Risk, uncertainties, cost curves • Actionable science – relevant to engineering world 48 Climate Adaptation Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for Smart City Approaches and Big Data Application • • Baseline climate science data (and modeling if possible) Rapid assessment strategy of impacts, vulnerabilities, 49 Thank You. [email protected] 50