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The Physics of Climate Change Graeme I Pearman GP Consulting Pty Ltd Monash University The Physics of Climate Change • • • • • • • • The IPCC The gases and other drivers of change Observed changes Projecting future change globally Projecting future change in Australia Managing risk and uncertainty Energy futures Conclusions February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Over arching In force (1992) Australia signed The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Underpinning Australian scientists involved The Kyoto Protocol Developed world targets In force (2005) Australia not signed Emission reductions or minimisation Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development & Climate To promote clean energy technology with the involvement of governments, business and research institutes Does not set binding greenhouse emissions reduction targets Countries involved – Australia, US, Japan, China, India and South Korea - account for nearly 50% of greenhouse gas emissions from 2006 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Over arching In force (1992) Australia signed The Kyoto Protocol Developed world targets In force (2005) Australia not signed The Intergovernmental Panel Emission IPCC Fourth Assessment Report reductions or on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Underpinning minimisation www.abc.net.au/news/opinion/items/200702/s1838077 Australian scientists involved Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development & Climate To promote clean energy technology with the involvement of governments, business and research institutes Does not set binding greenhouse emissions reduction targets Countries involved – Australia, US, Japan, China, India and South Korea - account for nearly 50% of greenhouse gas emissions from 2006 The Physics of Climate Change • The IPCC • Gases and other drivers of change • • • • • • Observed changes Projecting future change globally Projecting future change in Australia Managing risk and uncertainty Energy futures Conclusions February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Changes in greenhouse gases February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Source, IPCC 4AR, SPM, 2007 Other gases with greenhouse potential Source, IPCC 4AR, SPM, 2007 Relative contribution to warming Carbon dioxide Concentration <1700 2005 Change Radiative per year forcing Wm-2 275-285 379 ppmv 1.9 ppmv +1.66 ±0.17 Methane 715 1774 ppbv ~nil +0.48 ±0.05 Nitrous oxide 270 319 ppbv 0.83 ppbv +0.16 ±0.02 CFCs HCFCs Chlorocarbons NA Slightly negative +0.32 ±0.03 NA -0.05 ±0.10 +0.35 ±0.30 Ozone - stratosphere - Troposphere HFC, PFC, SF6 NA NA 10% +2.63 ±0.26 Total February 09, 2007 +0.017 ±0.002 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Lifetime and global warming potentials of selected greenhouse gases Gas Symbol Lifetime Years Global Warming Potential 20-years 100-years Carbon dioxide CO2 ~80 1 1 Methane CH4 12 72 25 Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289 298 CFC-11 CCl3F 45 3800 4750 CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 8100 10900 HFC-23 CHF3 270 11700 14800 SF6 3200 23900 16300 Sulphur hexafluoride February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash IPCC 4AR, Chapter 2, 2007 Radiative forcing of climate between 1750 and 2005 Chapter 2, IPCC 4AR The Physics of Climate Change • The IPCC • The gases and other drivers of change • Observed changes • • • • • Projecting future change globally Projecting future change in Australia Managing risk and uncertainty Energy futures Conclusions February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Changes of global temperature and northern hemisphere snow cover Source: IPPC 4AR, SPM North Australian tropics annual sea surface temperature anomaly (from1961-1990) http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi Key Findings: Observed change • Global mean temperatures have risen over past 100 years by 0.74 ±0.18 • Rate of warming in last 50 years ~ double that of the last 100 (0.13 ± 0.03) • Warmest years 1998, 2005, 2002, 2004 • 11 of last 12 years rank amongst the 12 warmest years on record • Land warming faster than over the oceans February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Key Findings: Observed change • Precipitation generally increased over land north of 30oN from 1900-2005 and decreased in the tropics since 1970s • Substantial increase in heavy precipitation events • More common droughts, especially in tropics and subtropics since 1970 • Tropospheric water increasing • “Global dimming” is neither global in extent nor has it continued after 1990 February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash The Earth is de-glaciating Key Findings: Observations • Snow cover has decreased in most regions, especially in spring and summer • Freeze-up and break-up dates for river and lake ice (variable). For the NH: – Feeze-up later by 5.8 ±1.6 days per century – Break-up earlier at a rate of 6.5 ±1.2 days per century • Arctic sea-ice extent decline of 2.7 ±0.6 per cent per decade February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash 50 Sea level, cm 40 30 20 10 0 1850 1900 1950 After J Church, personal communication 2000 2050 2100 Key Findings: Observations • Sea levels have rise at a rate of: – 1961-2003 1.9 ± 0.5 mm yr-1 – 1900-2000 1.7 ± 0.5 mm yr-1 – 1993-2003 1.6 ± 0.5 mm yr-1 thermal expansion 2.8 ± 0.7 mm yr-1 deglaciation • Ocean acidification – 0.1 pH unit so far February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Greenland Mass Loss – From Gravity Satellite Major Key Messages Gases • Current carbon dioxide and methane concentrations far exceed those of last 650,000 years • Increases primarily due to fossil fuel use, agriculture and land-use changes Warming • Unequivocal, evident in air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice and rising sea-levels • Warming an effect of human activities - at least 5 times greater than that due to solar output change The Physics of Climate Change • The IPCC • The gases and other drivers of change • Observed changes • Projecting future change globally • • • • Projecting future change in Australia Managing risk and uncertainty Energy futures Conclusions February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Greenhouse effect of neighbouring planets πr2(1-α)S = 4r2εσT4 ε is the emissivity (“blackness”, for the Earth~1.0), σ the Stefan-Boltzmann (Law) constant (5.67 x 10-8 W m-2 K-4), T is the temperature (oK), α is the reflectivity of the Earth (~0.3), r is the radius of the planet Distance from sun Min.-Max. (106 km) Surface pressure (Relative to Earth) Venus 107-109 90 Earth 147-152 1 Mars 207-249 0.007 February 09, 2007 Main greenhouse gases Surface temperature, absence of Greenhouse Effect (oC) Observed surface temperature (oC) Warming due to greenhouse effect (oC) >90% CO2 -46 477 523 ~0.04% CO2 ~1% H2O -18 15 33 >80% CO2 -57 -47 10 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Key components/processes of the climate system • Radiation budget • Hydrologic cycle • Fluid dynamics February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Key components/processes of the climate system • Radiation budget – Incoming solar radiation – Planetary movements – Cloud reflection – Aerosol/dust reflection – Surface reflection and absorption • Hydrologic cycle • Fluid dynamics February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Science behind the model Science behind the model February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Key components/processes of the climate system • Radiation budget • Hydrologic cycle – Evaporation – Cloud formation – Precipitation – Interception – Runoff • Fluid dynamics February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Key components/processes of the climate system • Radiation budget • Hydrologic cycle • Fluid dynamics – Pressure fields – Circulation of air vertically and horizontallywinds – Circulation of water vertically and horizontally- currents – Coriolis forces, planetary vorticity February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash What is a climate model? • Complex, lengthy computer program • Incorporating all physical/chemical and biological processes that drive weather and climate • Reproducing the way in which climate behaves from day to day, and season to season February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Climate models have greatly improved February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Modelled tropical cyclone Global warming relative to 1980-1999 17-model average, 4 emission futures 3.2oC 2.3oC 1.9oC 2.4oC Watterson and Arblaster (2005) Annual warming for 2080-2099 17-model average, A1b emission futures Watterson and Arblaster (2005) Key Findings: Future warming Based on up to 23 global climate models • Mean temperatures – – – – 2025 0.6-0.7 oC Higher over land/high latitude 2055 1.3-1.7 oC 2095 1.7-4.0 oC Transient at time of doubling CO2 2-4.5 oC • Extreme temperatures – – – – More frequent, intense, longer lived heat waves Minimum temperatures warm faster than maximum Decrease in frost days Mid to high latitudes Increased growing season Mid to high latitudes Key Findings: Precipitation • Mean precipitation – Increase tropics (monsoon)/high latitudes – Decrease subtropics/mid latitudes • Extreme precipitation – Intensity of events to increase – Longer periods between events (sub-tropics/mid latitudes) • Tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons) – Increased peak wind and precipitation – Possible overall less frequent – Geographic shifts • Mid latitude storms – Fewer- pole ward shift (several degrees) – Lower central pressure- increased wind speed/ waves June-July-August Key Findings • El Nino – To continue- still confused trends if any • Monsoons – Increase precipitation but projections confused by aerosols • Snow and ice – – – – Snow cover and sea ice extent decrease Glaciers and ice caps lose mass Loss of Arctic sea ice as early as mid 21st century Increase of thaw depth • Carbon cycle – Unanimous agreement: loss of CO2 absorption efficiency – Greater atmospheric accumulation of CO2 – Still significant model difference/uncertainties 365 CO2 (ppm) 360 Partitioning fossil CO2 Cape Grim in-situ CO2 355 350 345 340 0 -1 ) 335 (O 2/N2) (per meg yr 330 325 C (per mil PDB) -7.2 -7.3 Cape Grim 13C in CO2 -7.4 in-situ CO 2 extraction air archive -7.5 -8 Atmosphere Fossil Fuel -12 -7.6 -7.7 -7.8 -16 -7.9 -8 200 0 100 Ocean Terrestrial -20 Cape Grim O2/N2 150 02/N2) (per meg) -4 1 2 3 4 5 6 CO2 (GtC yr-1) 50 0 -50 air archive 13 C-predicted curve SIO flasks -100 -150 URI -200 CSIRO South Pole firn -250 77 79 81 83 85 Net uptake: Oceanic 2.3 GtC yr-1 Terrestrial 0.2 GtC yr-1 87 Year 89 91 93 95 97 Key Findings: The oceans • Sea level – By end of century from end of 21C, 0.19-0.58 m – Regionally different – Limited knowledge of ice flows and sea level contribution • Ocean acidification – 0.1 pH unit so far – 0.14-0.35 pH units in 21C – Southern Ocean exhibits under-saturation • Atlantic ocean overturning – decrease by less than 0-25% no collapse by 2100 Major key messages Cause of warming • Very likely (>90%) greenhouse-gas increase caused most of warming since mid-20th century • Extremely unlikely (<5%) warming caused by natural variability Future warming • Warming for next 2 decades to be 0.2oC/decade • BAU emissions would very likely (>90%) to cause 20st century warming larger than during 20th century February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash The Physics of Climate Change • • • • The IPCC process The gases and other drivers of change Observed changes Projecting future change globally • Projecting future change in Australia • Managing risk and uncertainty • Energy futures • Conclusions February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Annual Rainfall: ((1976-2003)/(19251975))x100 Data from P.Hope, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne Natural system changes linked to climate change in Australia/New Zealand • Ecosystems – Semi arid woodlands, Eucalypt savannas, rain forest/woodland, subalpine, mangroves, coral reefs • Genera – birds, Antarctic beech, mammals, insects (including genetic changes), sea urchins, marine mammals, fish, invasive species • Behaviour – flowering phenology, earlier migration and egg laying, seed production Lough (2000); Evans et al. (2003): Hughes (2003); Thresher et al. (2003); Chambers et al. (2005); Umina et al. (2005); etc. Key Findings: Australian Region • Mean temperature – South of 30oS by 2100 2.6 (2.4-2.9 inter-quart range) – North of 30oS by 2100 3.0 (2.8-3.5) – Less in coastal regions more inland • Mean precipitation – South of 30oS, JJA, 2100, -26 to -7% – East coast increase in summer, decrease in winter. Less robust • Snow cover – 30-days snow cover reduced to14-54% by 2020 and 3093% by 2050 • Potential evaporation – Almost all indications are for a moisture balance deficita drier Australian environment Key Findings: Australian Region- Extremes • Days over 35oC – Melbourne 8 to 9-12 (2020) and 10-20 (2070) – Perth 15 to 16-22 (2020) and 18-39 • Commonly return period of extreme rainfall events halve through 21st century • NSW/Qld rainfall 30% increase in magnitude, 1 in 40 becoming 1 in 15 year event • Marked increase frequency of rainfall deficits, doubling in some case by 2050 15-model average changes in temperature by 2070, relative to 1990 Suppiah et al. (in prep) 2070 Mid Annual (b) Summer Autumn Winter Spring oC Temperature change 15-model average changes in rainfall by 2030 relative to 1990 Suppiah et al. (in prep) Mid Annual Summer Winter Autumn Mid refers to middle range global warming values used to scale the patterns of change Spring Rainfall change (%) Potentially vulnerable systems Vulnerable Drivers of change Impacts Economy Eastern Australian Alps Reduced precipitation & snow cover Shortened winter season. Loss of plant species, increased shrubs, less herbs Threats to built environment, biodiversity, ski industry viability/costs and tourism Eastern Queensland Coastal impacts of sea level rise, storm intensity Losses to infrastructure and coastal amenity Tourism implications. Infrastructure costs and insurance risk Kakadu Salt water intrusions Displacement of freshwater wetlands with mangroves Biodiversity and tourism implications Murray Darling Basin Reduced river flow Enhanced water competition for natural flows, irrigation and town water supplies Higher cost of water. Loss of agricultural production and biodiversity Queensland wet tropics Coastal impacts of sea-level rise & storm Intensity Species extinction, loss of coral reefs, coastal flooding and infrastructure damage Tourism implications. Infrastructure costs & insurance risk SW Western Australia Drying Water shortages, fragmentation of ecosystems Loss of agriculture production or enforced changes. Loss of biodiversity Sub Antarctica islands Warming & deglaciation Loss of key species and rapid changes to ecosystem assemblages Loss of biodiversity The Physics of Climate Change • • • • • The IPCC process The gases and other drivers of change Observed changes Projecting future change globally Projecting future change in Australia • Managing risk and uncertainty • Energy futures • Conclusions February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Exposure Sensitivity Probability Mitigate Magnitude Potential impact Adaptive capacity Strategy Risk Vulnerability Managed adaptation Resilience Modified from Allen Consulting Group (2005) “This is not just an environmental problem. It is a defence problem. It is a problem for those who deal with economics and development, conflict prevention, agriculture, finance, housing, transport … trade and health”. UK Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, The Age, Oct. 26, 2006 The Physics of Climate Change • • • • • • The IPCC process The gases and other drivers of change Observed changes Projecting future change globally Projecting future change in Australia Managing risk and uncertainty • Energy futures • Conclusions February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash A “wedges” approach to energy futures and climate change Energy Efficiency & Reduced Demand Solar Wind Advanced Nuclear Advanced Gas Advanced Coal Conventional Biomass Carbon capture and sequestration Adapted from Battelle: similar approach used by Princeton University, see Socolow et al. Environment , 46 (2004) National anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases Mt CO2 equivalent (excluding forestry/land-use change), 2004 Australia Canada France Italy Netherlands Poland Spain Ukraine United Kingdom United States 528 758 562 582 218 388 427 413 665 6067 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2006/sbi/eng/26.pdf The Physics of Climate Change • • • • • • • The IPCC process The gases and other drivers of change Observed changes Projecting future change globally Projecting future change in Australia Managing risk and uncertainty Energy futures • Conclusions February 09, 2007 Physics Teachers’ Conference, Monash Conclusions • We are challenged by – The complexity, need for integrated responses – Self interest, balancing competing aspirations – A spectrum of uncertainty • The changes are large, even on long time scales • They demand immediate and on-going action • There is no guarantee that we can/will respond in time to avoid serious repercussions • This is not doom-saying but a message from mainstream climate science Sponsor Address Content Aust. Acad. of Science http://www.science.org.au/nova/ Carbon accounting, climate and health, biodiversity, health, etc. Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ Information about climate http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi Trends maps for Australia’s climat http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ Q and A, carbon accounting, energy http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ Q and A, carbon accounting, energy, etc http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/inventory/2003/pubs/inventory2003.pdf Emission inventory http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/education/tips.html What you can do Hadley Centre, British Meteorological Office http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/ Publications http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html Climate predictions http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/globaltemperature.html Global temperatures CRC G/H Accoun. http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/about%5Fgreenhouse/ Greenhosue, carbon accounting, impacts, etc. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/gh_faq.htm#gh1 Greenhouse questions and answers http://www.dar.csiro.au/capegrim/ghgasgraphs.html Greenhouse-gas levels, Cape Grim http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/projections2001.pdf Climate projections Environment Canada http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca/education/scienceofclimatechange/understanding/FAQ/F AQ-finalenglish.pdf Greenhouse questions and answers NOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html Global data Princeton University http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/Environ_0821a.pdf Wedges approach to future energy options Roy. Soc. London http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 Facts and fiction about climate change Concerned Scientists http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/global-warming-faq.html Frequently asked questions Vict. Government http://www.greenhouse.vic.gov.au/ Victorian greenhouse strategy, etc. United Nations http://unfccc.int/2860.php Framework Convention on Climate Chnage http://www.ipcc.ch/ Recent Fourth Assessment Report Australian Greenhouse Office