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The Physics of Climate Change
Graeme I Pearman
GP Consulting Pty Ltd
Monash University
The Physics of Climate Change
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The IPCC
The gases and other drivers of change
Observed changes
Projecting future change globally
Projecting future change in Australia
Managing risk and uncertainty
Energy futures
Conclusions
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
Over arching
In force (1992)
Australia signed
The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC)
Technical Underpinning
Australian scientists involved
The Kyoto Protocol
Developed world targets
In force (2005)
Australia not signed
Emission
reductions or
minimisation
Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development & Climate
To promote clean energy technology with the involvement of governments, business
and research institutes
Does not set binding greenhouse emissions reduction targets
Countries involved – Australia, US, Japan, China, India and South Korea - account for
nearly 50% of greenhouse gas emissions from 2006
United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
Over arching
In force (1992)
Australia signed
The Kyoto Protocol
Developed world targets
In force (2005)
Australia not signed
The Intergovernmental Panel
Emission
IPCC
Fourth
Assessment
Report reductions or
on Climate
Change
(IPCC)
Technical Underpinning
minimisation
www.abc.net.au/news/opinion/items/200702/s1838077
Australian scientists involved
Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development & Climate
To promote clean energy technology with the involvement of governments, business
and research institutes
Does not set binding greenhouse emissions reduction targets
Countries involved – Australia, US, Japan, China, India and South Korea - account for
nearly 50% of greenhouse gas emissions from 2006
The Physics of Climate Change
• The IPCC
• Gases and other drivers of change
•
•
•
•
•
•
Observed changes
Projecting future change globally
Projecting future change in Australia
Managing risk and uncertainty
Energy futures
Conclusions
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Changes in greenhouse gases
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Source, IPCC 4AR, SPM, 2007
Other gases with greenhouse potential
Source, IPCC
4AR, SPM, 2007
Relative contribution to warming
Carbon dioxide
Concentration
<1700
2005
Change
Radiative
per year forcing Wm-2
275-285 379 ppmv
1.9 ppmv
+1.66 ±0.17
Methane
715
1774 ppbv ~nil
+0.48 ±0.05
Nitrous oxide
270
319 ppbv
0.83 ppbv
+0.16 ±0.02
CFCs HCFCs
Chlorocarbons
NA
Slightly
negative
+0.32 ±0.03
NA
-0.05 ±0.10
+0.35 ±0.30
Ozone - stratosphere
- Troposphere
HFC, PFC, SF6
NA
NA
10%
+2.63 ±0.26
Total
February 09, 2007
+0.017 ±0.002
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Lifetime and global warming potentials
of selected greenhouse gases
Gas
Symbol Lifetime
Years
Global Warming
Potential
20-years
100-years
Carbon dioxide
CO2
~80
1
1
Methane
CH4
12
72
25
Nitrous oxide
N2O
114
289
298
CFC-11
CCl3F
45
3800
4750
CFC-12
CCl2F2
100
8100
10900
HFC-23
CHF3
270
11700
14800
SF6
3200
23900
16300
Sulphur hexafluoride
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
IPCC 4AR, Chapter 2, 2007
Radiative
forcing of
climate
between
1750 and
2005
Chapter 2, IPCC 4AR
The Physics of Climate Change
• The IPCC
• The gases and other drivers of change
• Observed changes
•
•
•
•
•
Projecting future change globally
Projecting future change in Australia
Managing risk and uncertainty
Energy futures
Conclusions
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Changes of
global
temperature
and northern
hemisphere
snow cover
Source: IPPC 4AR, SPM
North Australian tropics annual sea
surface temperature anomaly
(from1961-1990)
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi
Key Findings: Observed change
• Global mean temperatures have risen over
past 100 years by 0.74 ±0.18
• Rate of warming in last 50 years ~ double
that of the last 100 (0.13 ± 0.03)
• Warmest years 1998, 2005, 2002, 2004
• 11 of last 12 years rank amongst the 12
warmest years on record
• Land warming faster than over the oceans
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Key Findings: Observed change
• Precipitation generally increased over
land north of 30oN from 1900-2005 and
decreased in the tropics since 1970s
• Substantial increase in heavy precipitation
events
• More common droughts, especially in
tropics and subtropics since 1970
• Tropospheric water increasing
• “Global dimming” is neither global in
extent nor has it continued after 1990
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
The Earth is de-glaciating
Key Findings: Observations
• Snow cover has decreased in most
regions, especially in spring and summer
• Freeze-up and break-up dates for river
and lake ice (variable). For the NH:
– Feeze-up later by 5.8 ±1.6 days per century
– Break-up earlier at a rate of 6.5 ±1.2 days per
century
• Arctic sea-ice extent decline of 2.7 ±0.6
per cent per decade
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
50
Sea level, cm
40
30
20
10
0
1850
1900
1950
After J Church, personal communication
2000
2050
2100
Key Findings: Observations
• Sea levels have rise at a rate of:
– 1961-2003 1.9 ± 0.5 mm yr-1
– 1900-2000 1.7 ± 0.5 mm yr-1
– 1993-2003 1.6 ± 0.5 mm yr-1 thermal expansion
2.8 ± 0.7 mm yr-1 deglaciation
• Ocean acidification
– 0.1 pH unit so far
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Greenland Mass Loss – From Gravity Satellite
Major Key Messages
Gases
• Current carbon dioxide and methane
concentrations far exceed those of last 650,000
years
• Increases primarily due to fossil fuel use,
agriculture and land-use changes
Warming
• Unequivocal, evident in air and ocean
temperatures, melting of snow and ice and rising
sea-levels
• Warming an effect of human activities - at least 5
times greater than that due to solar output change
The Physics of Climate Change
• The IPCC
• The gases and other drivers of change
• Observed changes
• Projecting future change globally
•
•
•
•
Projecting future change in Australia
Managing risk and uncertainty
Energy futures
Conclusions
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Greenhouse effect of neighbouring planets
πr2(1-α)S = 4r2εσT4
ε is the emissivity (“blackness”, for the Earth~1.0), σ the Stefan-Boltzmann (Law) constant
(5.67 x 10-8 W m-2 K-4), T is the temperature (oK), α is the reflectivity of the Earth (~0.3), r is
the radius of the planet
Distance
from sun
Min.-Max.
(106 km)
Surface
pressure
(Relative
to Earth)
Venus
107-109
90
Earth
147-152
1
Mars
207-249
0.007
February 09, 2007
Main
greenhouse
gases
Surface
temperature,
absence of
Greenhouse
Effect (oC)
Observed
surface
temperature
(oC)
Warming
due to
greenhouse
effect (oC)
>90% CO2
-46
477
523
~0.04% CO2
~1% H2O
-18
15
33
>80% CO2
-57
-47
10
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Key components/processes of the
climate system
• Radiation budget
• Hydrologic cycle
• Fluid dynamics
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Key components/processes of the
climate system
• Radiation budget
– Incoming solar radiation
– Planetary movements
– Cloud reflection
– Aerosol/dust reflection
– Surface reflection and absorption
• Hydrologic cycle
• Fluid dynamics
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Science behind the model
Science behind the model
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Key components/processes of the
climate system
• Radiation budget
• Hydrologic cycle
– Evaporation
– Cloud formation
– Precipitation
– Interception
– Runoff
• Fluid dynamics
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Key components/processes of the
climate system
• Radiation budget
• Hydrologic cycle
• Fluid dynamics
– Pressure fields
– Circulation of air vertically and horizontallywinds
– Circulation of water vertically and
horizontally- currents
– Coriolis forces, planetary vorticity
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
What is a climate model?
• Complex, lengthy computer program
• Incorporating all physical/chemical
and biological processes that drive
weather and climate
• Reproducing the way in which
climate behaves from day to day, and
season to season
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Climate models have greatly improved
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Modelled tropical cyclone
Global warming relative to 1980-1999
17-model average, 4 emission futures
3.2oC
2.3oC
1.9oC
2.4oC
Watterson and Arblaster (2005)
Annual warming for 2080-2099
17-model average, A1b emission futures
Watterson and Arblaster (2005)
Key Findings: Future warming
Based on up to 23 global climate models
• Mean temperatures
–
–
–
–
2025 0.6-0.7 oC Higher over land/high latitude
2055 1.3-1.7 oC
2095 1.7-4.0 oC
Transient at time of doubling CO2 2-4.5 oC
• Extreme temperatures
–
–
–
–
More frequent, intense, longer lived heat waves
Minimum temperatures warm faster than maximum
Decrease in frost days
Mid to high latitudes
Increased growing season
Mid to high latitudes
Key Findings: Precipitation
• Mean precipitation
– Increase tropics (monsoon)/high latitudes
– Decrease subtropics/mid latitudes
• Extreme precipitation
– Intensity of events to increase
– Longer periods between events (sub-tropics/mid
latitudes)
• Tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons)
– Increased peak wind and precipitation
– Possible overall less frequent
– Geographic shifts
• Mid latitude storms
– Fewer- pole ward shift (several degrees)
– Lower central pressure- increased wind speed/ waves
June-July-August
Key Findings
• El Nino
– To continue- still confused trends if any
• Monsoons
– Increase precipitation but projections confused by
aerosols
• Snow and ice
–
–
–
–
Snow cover and sea ice extent decrease
Glaciers and ice caps lose mass
Loss of Arctic sea ice as early as mid 21st century
Increase of thaw depth
• Carbon cycle
– Unanimous agreement: loss of CO2 absorption
efficiency
– Greater atmospheric accumulation of CO2
– Still significant model difference/uncertainties
365
CO2 (ppm)
360
Partitioning fossil
CO2
Cape Grim in-situ CO2
355
350
345
340
0
-1
)
335
 (O 2/N2) (per meg yr
330
325
  C   (per mil PDB)
-7.2
-7.3
Cape Grim 13C in CO2
-7.4
in-situ CO 2 extraction
air archive
-7.5
-8
Atmosphere
Fossil Fuel
-12
-7.6
-7.7
-7.8
-16
-7.9
-8
200
0
100
Ocean
Terrestrial
-20
Cape Grim O2/N2
150
02/N2) (per meg)
-4
1
2
3
4
5
6
CO2 (GtC yr-1)
50
0
-50
air archive
13
C-predicted curve
SIO flasks
-100
-150
URI
-200
CSIRO
South Pole firn
-250
77
79
81
83
85
Net uptake: Oceanic 2.3 GtC yr-1
Terrestrial 0.2 GtC yr-1
87
Year
89
91
93
95
97
Key Findings: The oceans
• Sea level
– By end of century from end of 21C, 0.19-0.58 m
– Regionally different
– Limited knowledge of ice flows and sea level
contribution
• Ocean acidification
– 0.1 pH unit so far
– 0.14-0.35 pH units in 21C
– Southern Ocean exhibits under-saturation
• Atlantic ocean overturning
– decrease by less than 0-25% no collapse by 2100
Major key messages
Cause of warming
• Very likely (>90%) greenhouse-gas increase
caused most of warming since mid-20th century
• Extremely unlikely (<5%) warming caused by
natural variability
Future warming
• Warming for next 2 decades to be 0.2oC/decade
• BAU emissions would very likely (>90%) to
cause 20st century warming larger than during
20th century
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
The Physics of Climate Change
•
•
•
•
The IPCC process
The gases and other drivers of change
Observed changes
Projecting future change globally
• Projecting future change in Australia
• Managing risk and uncertainty
• Energy futures
• Conclusions
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Annual Rainfall: ((1976-2003)/(19251975))x100
Data from P.Hope, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne
Natural system changes linked to
climate change in Australia/New Zealand
• Ecosystems
– Semi arid woodlands, Eucalypt savannas, rain
forest/woodland, subalpine, mangroves, coral reefs
• Genera
– birds, Antarctic beech, mammals, insects (including
genetic changes), sea urchins, marine mammals,
fish, invasive species
• Behaviour
– flowering phenology, earlier migration and egg
laying, seed production
Lough (2000); Evans et al. (2003): Hughes (2003); Thresher et al. (2003); Chambers et al. (2005); Umina et al. (2005); etc.
Key Findings: Australian Region
• Mean temperature
– South of 30oS by 2100
2.6 (2.4-2.9 inter-quart range)
– North of 30oS by 2100
3.0 (2.8-3.5)
– Less in coastal regions more inland
• Mean precipitation
– South of 30oS, JJA, 2100, -26 to -7%
– East coast increase in summer, decrease in winter. Less
robust
• Snow cover
– 30-days snow cover reduced to14-54% by 2020 and 3093% by 2050
• Potential evaporation
– Almost all indications are for a moisture balance deficita drier Australian environment
Key Findings:
Australian Region- Extremes
• Days over 35oC
– Melbourne 8 to 9-12 (2020) and 10-20 (2070)
– Perth 15 to 16-22 (2020) and 18-39
• Commonly return period of extreme
rainfall events halve through 21st century
• NSW/Qld rainfall 30% increase in
magnitude, 1 in 40 becoming 1 in 15 year
event
• Marked increase frequency of rainfall
deficits, doubling in some case by 2050
15-model
average
changes in
temperature
by 2070,
relative to
1990
Suppiah et al. (in prep)
2070 Mid
Annual
(b)
Summer
Autumn
Winter
Spring
oC
Temperature change
15-model average changes in rainfall by
2030 relative to 1990
Suppiah et al. (in prep)
Mid
Annual
Summer
Winter
Autumn
Mid refers to middle
range global
warming values
used to scale the
patterns of change
Spring
Rainfall change (%)
Potentially vulnerable systems
Vulnerable
Drivers of
change
Impacts
Economy
Eastern
Australian
Alps
Reduced
precipitation &
snow cover
Shortened winter season.
Loss of plant species,
increased shrubs, less herbs
Threats to built environment,
biodiversity, ski industry
viability/costs and tourism
Eastern
Queensland
Coastal impacts of
sea level rise,
storm intensity
Losses to infrastructure and
coastal amenity
Tourism implications.
Infrastructure costs and
insurance risk
Kakadu
Salt water
intrusions
Displacement of freshwater
wetlands with mangroves
Biodiversity and tourism
implications
Murray
Darling
Basin
Reduced river flow
Enhanced water competition
for natural flows, irrigation
and town water supplies
Higher cost of water. Loss of
agricultural production and
biodiversity
Queensland
wet tropics
Coastal impacts of
sea-level rise &
storm Intensity
Species extinction, loss of
coral reefs, coastal flooding
and infrastructure damage
Tourism implications.
Infrastructure costs &
insurance risk
SW Western
Australia
Drying
Water shortages,
fragmentation of ecosystems
Loss of agriculture production
or enforced changes. Loss of
biodiversity
Sub
Antarctica
islands
Warming & deglaciation
Loss of key species and
rapid changes to ecosystem
assemblages
Loss of biodiversity
The Physics of Climate Change
•
•
•
•
•
The IPCC process
The gases and other drivers of change
Observed changes
Projecting future change globally
Projecting future change in Australia
• Managing risk and uncertainty
• Energy futures
• Conclusions
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Exposure
Sensitivity
Probability
Mitigate
Magnitude
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Strategy
Risk
Vulnerability
Managed
adaptation
Resilience
Modified from Allen
Consulting Group (2005)
“This is not just an
environmental problem. It
is a defence problem. It is a
problem for those who deal
with economics and
development, conflict
prevention, agriculture,
finance, housing, transport
… trade and health”.
UK Foreign Secretary, Margaret
Beckett, The Age, Oct. 26, 2006
The Physics of Climate Change
•
•
•
•
•
•
The IPCC process
The gases and other drivers of change
Observed changes
Projecting future change globally
Projecting future change in Australia
Managing risk and uncertainty
• Energy futures
• Conclusions
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
A “wedges” approach to energy futures and
climate change
Energy Efficiency &
Reduced Demand
Solar
Wind
Advanced Nuclear
Advanced Gas
Advanced Coal
Conventional Biomass
Carbon capture
and
sequestration
Adapted from Battelle: similar approach used by Princeton University, see Socolow et al. Environment , 46 (2004)
National anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases
Mt CO2 equivalent (excluding forestry/land-use change), 2004
Australia
Canada
France
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
Spain
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
528
758
562
582
218
388
427
413
665
6067
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2006/sbi/eng/26.pdf
The Physics of Climate Change
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The IPCC process
The gases and other drivers of change
Observed changes
Projecting future change globally
Projecting future change in Australia
Managing risk and uncertainty
Energy futures
• Conclusions
February 09, 2007
Physics Teachers’ Conference,
Monash
Conclusions
• We are challenged by
– The complexity, need for integrated responses
– Self interest, balancing competing aspirations
– A spectrum of uncertainty
• The changes are large, even on long time scales
• They demand immediate and on-going action
• There is no guarantee that we can/will respond in
time to avoid serious repercussions
• This is not doom-saying but a message from
mainstream climate science
Sponsor
Address
Content
Aust. Acad. of
Science
http://www.science.org.au/nova/
Carbon accounting, climate and health,
biodiversity, health, etc.
Australian
Bureau of
Meteorology
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Information about climate
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi
Trends maps for Australia’s climat
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/
Q and A, carbon accounting, energy
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/
Q and A, carbon accounting, energy, etc
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/inventory/2003/pubs/inventory2003.pdf
Emission inventory
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/education/tips.html
What you can do
Hadley Centre,
British
Meteorological
Office
http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/
Publications
http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html
Climate predictions
http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/globaltemperature.html
Global temperatures
CRC G/H Accoun.
http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/about%5Fgreenhouse/
Greenhosue, carbon accounting, impacts, etc.
CSIRO Marine
and Atmospheric
Research
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/gh_faq.htm#gh1
Greenhouse questions and answers
http://www.dar.csiro.au/capegrim/ghgasgraphs.html
Greenhouse-gas levels, Cape Grim
http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/projections2001.pdf
Climate projections
Environment
Canada
http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca/education/scienceofclimatechange/understanding/FAQ/F
AQ-finalenglish.pdf
Greenhouse questions and answers
NOAA
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html
Global data
Princeton
University
http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/Environ_0821a.pdf
Wedges approach to future energy options
Roy. Soc.
London
http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630
Facts and fiction about climate change
Concerned
Scientists
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/global-warming-faq.html
Frequently asked questions
Vict. Government
http://www.greenhouse.vic.gov.au/
Victorian greenhouse strategy, etc.
United Nations
http://unfccc.int/2860.php
Framework Convention on Climate Chnage
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Recent Fourth Assessment Report
Australian
Greenhouse
Office