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SETTING THE STAGE FOR: BIOSPHERE, CHEMISTRY, CLIMATE INTERACTIONS TOPICS FOR TODAY 1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts 2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections 3. Climate change observed & predicted 4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change 5. How climate change may change atmospheric composition STRATOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY…BASIC MECHANISM Chapman Mechanism: Source of ozone (O2 + hv) Sink of ozone (O+O3) predicts too much ozone! Other ozone sinks: catalytic loss cycles: 1. HOx: from H2O 2. NOx: from N2O / lightning 3. ClOx: from CFCs H2O slow OH fast HO2 slow Antarctic ozone depletion involves special case of ClOx catalyzed O3-destruction where (cold) PSCs return Cl from reservoir to catalyst TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY O2 hn O3 STRATOSPHERE 8-18 km TROPOSPHERE hn O3 OH, M VOC limited NO2 NO hn, H2O NOx limited OH Deposition HNO3 HO2 CO, CH4, RH CO, HC, NOx H2O2 PARTICULATE MATTER (PM, AEROSOLS) SOURCES AND PROCESSES ultra-fine (<0.01 mm) precursor gases oxidation SO2 nucleation H2SO4 fine (0.01-1 mm) . . coagulation . . . . cloud (1-100 mm) cycling condensation VOCs NOx RCO… coarse scavenging (1-10 mm) HNO3 NH3 combustion biosphere volcanoes agriculture biosphere carbonaceous combustion particles soil dust sea salt TOPICS FOR TODAY 1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts 2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections 3. Climate change observed & predicted 4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change 5. How climate change may change atmospheric composition TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE / ATMOSPHERE INTERFACE Monson and Holland, 2001 OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERFACE Monson and Holland, 2001 TOPICS FOR TODAY 1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts 2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections 3. Climate change observed & predicted 4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change 5. How climate change may change atmospheric composition OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND 100-year trend (1906–2005): 0.74°C ± 0.18°C rate of warming doubled in later half of century Land warming faster than ocean IPCC, 2007 OBSERVED TREND IN WATER VAPOUR Total column water vapour has increased over the global oceans by 1.2 ± 0.3% per decade (1988 to 2004) UT water vapour also increasing, where of radiative importance ocean global UT IPCC, 2007 OBSERVED TREND IN PRECIPITATION Long-term trends in precipitation amounts from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in many large regions: ↑ eastern North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia ↓ Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia Also evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the N Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases in tropical SSTs. IPCC, 2007 OBSERVED CHANGES IN SNOW COVER, SEA ICE AND SEA LEVEL 1961 to 2003 global mean sea level rise: 1.8 ± 0.5 mm yr–1 thermal expansion contribution: 0.42 ± 0.12 mm yr–1 melting of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets: 0.7 ± 0.5 mm yr–1 IPCC, 2007 EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS IPCC, 2007 PREDICTED TEMPERATURE TREND IPCC, 2007 PREDICTED PRECIPITATION TREND Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely at high latitudes while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions IPCC, 2007 UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE SENSITIVITY Climate Sensitivity: the warming to be expected if CO2 concentrations were sustained at double PI (~ 550ppm) “equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4.5°C, with a best estimate value of about 3°C.” IPCC, 2007 TOPICS FOR TODAY 1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts 2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections 3. Climate change observed & predicted 4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change 5. How climate change may change atmospheric composition DIRECT RADIATIVE FORCING AGENTS IPCC, 2007 AEROSOL “INDIRECT EFFECT” FROM CLOUD CHANGES Clouds form by condensation on pre-existing aerosol particles (“cloud condensation nuclei”) when RH>100% clean cloud (few particles): large cloud droplets • low albedo • efficient precipitation polluted cloud (many particles): small cloud droplets • high albedo (1st indirect) • suppressed precipitation (2nd indirect) SCATTERING vs. ABSORBING AEROSOLS Scattering sulfate and organic aerosol over Massachusetts Partly absorbing dust aerosol downwind of Sahara Absorbing aerosols (black carbon, dust) warm the climate by absorbing solar radiation AEROSOL RADIATIVE FORCING: UNCERTAINTIES Forward calculations: models of aerosol physics and chemistry Inverse calculations: forcing to match model simulations with observed T changes IGAC, 2006 TOPICS FOR TODAY 1. Intro to atmospheric chemistry concepts 2. Atmosphere-biosphere connections 3. Climate change observed & predicted 4. How chemistry may amplify/dampen climate change 5. How climate change may change atmospheric composition HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT STRATOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY? Chapman Mechanism: Source of ozone (O2 + hv) Sink of ozone (O+O3) predicts too much ozone! Other ozone sinks: catalytic loss cycles: 1. HOx: from H2O 2. NOx: from N2O / lightning 3. ClOx: from CFCs H2O slow OH fast HO2 slow Antarctic ozone depletion involves special case of ClOx catalyzed O3-destruction where (cold) PSCs return Cl from reservoir to catalyst O2 hn STRATOSPHERE 8-18 km O3 HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY? TROPOSPHERE hn O3 NO2 NO OH HO2 hn, H2O Deposition CO, VOC Nitrogen oxide radicals; NOx = NO + NO2 combustion, soils, lightning Tropospheric ozone precursors Methane wetlands, livestock, natural gas Nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) vegetation, combustion, industry CO (carbon monoxide) combustion, VOC oxidation H2O2 HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PM? ultra-fine (<0.01 mm) precursor gases oxidation SO2 nucleation H2SO4 fine (0.01-1 mm) . . coagulation . . . . cloud (1-100 mm) cycling condensation VOCs NOx RCO… coarse scavenging (1-10 mm) HNO3 NH3 combustion biosphere volcanoes agriculture biosphere carbonaceous combustion particles soil dust sea salt EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOSPHEREATMOSPHERE SYSTEM Zepp et al., 2003