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Summer School-IGENE, September 06-11th, 2010
Lecture 1:
Global Environmental Changes and
Kyoto protocol
Nenad Keča
Faculty of Forestry-University of Belgrade
What are climate change?
How we see climate change
1880 year
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Since 1800 we started to measure (enough
accurate) temperature
Another 50 year we needed to distribute
instruments in all key areas of the world.
Virtually all scientists agree that the Earth has
warmed some amount since the year 1000
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The average temperature of the earth's surface
has risen by 0.74 °C;
It is expected to increase by another 1.8° C to
4° C by the year 2100;
The average sea level rose by 10 to 20 cm
during the 20th century, and an additional
increase of 18 to 59 cm is expected by the year
2100;
Why climate is changing?
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The principal reason for the mounting
thermometer is a century and a half of
industrialization:
the burning of ever-greater quantities of
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1. oil,
2. gasoline,
3. coal,
the cutting of forests, and
the practice of certain farming methods
What we can expect if climate change?
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Will human beings be threatened in this way? Probably not
but are likely to face mounting difficulties. Recent severe
storms, floods and droughts, etc.
Agricultural yields are expected to drop in most tropical and
sub-tropical regions - and in temperate regions too - if the
temperature increase is more than a few degrees C.
Drying of continental interiors, such as central Asia, the
African Sahel, and the Great Plains of the United States, is
also forecast. These changes could cause, at a minimum,
disruptions in land use and food supply.
The current warming trend is expected to cause extinctions.
Numerous plant and animal species, already weakened by
pollution and loss of habitat, are not expected to survive the
next 100 years.
Climate Change Science
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Human activity - particularly the burning of fossil fuels - has
made the blanket of greenhouse gases around the earth
"thicker."
The resulting increase in global temperatures is altering the
complex web of systems that allow life to thrive on earth, such
as cloud cover, rainfall, wind patterns, ocean currents, and the
distribution of plant and animal species.
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The greenhouse effect and the carbon cycle. More of the sun's
energy is being trapped in the atmosphere, and much more of the world's carbon (in the form
of carbon dioxide) is resting in the air rather than in trees, soil, and subterranean deposits.
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Current evidence of climate change. Some consequences of global
warming are already apparent.
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Future effects. The complexity of the climate system means predictions vary widely,
but even the minimum changes forecast could mean frequently flooded coastlines, disruptions
to food and water supplies, and the extinction of many species.
What is responsible for CC
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Systematic following the physical and chemical conditions and
energetic balance of atmosphere and atmospheric ozone,
during 1970’s showed that climate is strongly influenced by
concentration of “glass house gases”
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CO2 - Carbon dioxide
CH4 - Methane
N2O - Nitrous oxide
PFCs - Perfluorocarbons
HFCs - Hydrofluorocarbons
SF6 - Sulphur hexafluoride
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as well as for the indrect greenhouse gases
such as SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC.
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Problem arise not just because of
Production and Emission
Long retain
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Greenhouse gases make up only about 1 per cent
of the atmosphere, but they act like a blanket
around the earth, or like the glass roof of a
greenhouse - they trap heat and keep the planet
some 30°C warmer than it would be otherwise
These changes are happening at unprecedented
speed. If emissions continue to grow at current rates,
it is almost certain that atmospheric levels of carbon
dioxide will double from pre-industrial levels during
the 21st century. It is possible they will triple.
During 21st century CO2 can
DOUBLE or TRIPLE?
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Carbon dioxide is responsible for over 60 per cent of the "enhanced greenhouse effect"
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Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global rate
in the past 100 years. Temperatures at the top of the permafrost layer
have generally increased since the 1980s by up to 3°C.
In the Alps, some plant species have been migrating upward by 1 to 4
meters/decade, and some plants previously found only on mountain
tops have disappeared.
In Europe, mating and egg-laying of some bird species has occurred
earlier in the season -- in the United Kingdom, for example, egglaying by 20 of 65 species, including long-distance migrants,
advanced by an average of eight days between 1971 and 1995.
Across Europe, the growing season in controlled, mixed-species
gardens lengthened by 10.8 days from 1959 to 1993.
Butterflies, dragonflies, moths, beetles, and other insects are now
living at higher latitudes and altitudes, where previously it was too
cold to survive.
Variation of the Earth’s surface temperature
Possible changes
in temperatures?!
Possible changes
in precipitation?!
Sea level rise due to global warming
Even the minimum predicted shifts in climate for the
21st century are likely to be significant and disruptive.
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A future of more severe storms and floods along the
world's increasingly crowded coastlines is likely, and
will be a bad combination.
The IPCC also points to very likely increases in the amounts
of precipitation in high latitudes, as well as likely
precipitation decreases in most sub-tropical land regions.
Salt-water intrusion from rising sea levels will reduce
the quality and quantity of freshwater supplies.
Most of the world's endangered species - some 25 per
cent of mammals and 12 per cent of birds - may become
extinct
Higher temperatures are expected to expand the range of
some dangerous "vector-borne" diseases
What Can Be Done
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Measures -- heavily dependent on
teamwork and political will - can slow
the rate of global warming and help the
world cope with the climate shifts that
occur.
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Reducing emissions;
Expanding forests;
Changing lifestyles and rules;
Coping;
Accomplishments to date. . . and problems.
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What has been done?
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Over a decade ago, most countries joined an
international treaty –
United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992) Rio,
Brasil
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In force March 1994, signed by 194 countries and EU
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Kyoto Protocol (KP) (1997) Kyoto, Japan
In force Feb.2005, till Sep. 2006 ratified by 165 countries and EU
UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION
ON CLIMATE CHANGE
(UNFCCC)
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Acknowledging that change in the Earth’s climate and its adverse effects are
a common concern of humankind,
Concerned that human activities have been substantially increasing the
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, that these increases enhance
the natural greenhouse effect, and that this will result on average in an
additional warming of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere and may adversely
affect natural ecosystems and humankind,
Noting that the largest share of historical and current global emissions of
greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita
emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of
global emissions originating in developing countries will grow,
Aware of the role and importance in terrestrial and marine ecosystems of
sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases,
Noting that there are many uncertainties in predictions of climate change,
particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns thereof,
Acknowledging that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest
possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective
and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and
economic conditions,
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Recognizing that States should enact effective environmental legislation, that
environmental standards, management objectives and priorities should reflect
the environmental and developmental context,
Recognizing that steps required to understand and address climate change will be
environmentally, socially and economically most effective if they are based on
relevant scientific, technical and economic considerations and continually reevaluated in the light of new findings in these areas,
Recognizing also the need for developed countries to take immediate action in a
flexible manner on the basis of clear priorities, as a first step towards
comprehensive response strategies at the global, national and, where agreed,
regional levels that take into account all greenhouse gases, with due consideration
of their relative contributions to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect,
Recognizing further that low-lying and other small island countries, countries with
low-lying coastal, arid and semi-arid areas or areas liable to floods, drought and
desertification, and developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems are
particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change,
Affirming that responses to climate change should be coordinated with social
and economic development in an integrated manner with a view to avoiding
adverse impacts on the latter, taking into full account the legitimate priority needs
of developing countries for the achievement of sustained economic growth and the
eradication of poverty,
Recognizing that all countries, especially developing countries, need access to
resources required to achieve sustainable social and economic development and
that,
Determined to protect the climate system for present and future generations,
Definitions
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1. “Adverse effects of climate change” means changes in the physical environment or biota
resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition,
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socioeconomic systems or on human health and welfare.
2. “Climate change” means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition
to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
3. “Climate system” means the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and
geosphere and their interactions.
4. “Emissions” means the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the
atmosphere over a specified area and period of time.
5. “Greenhouse gases” means those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural
and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation.
6. “Regional economic integration organization” means an organization constituted by
sovereign States of a given region which has competence in respect of matters governed by
this Convention or its protocols and has been duly authorized, in accordance with its internal
procedures, to sign, ratify, accept, approve or accede to the instruments concerned.
7. “Reservoir” means a component or components of the climate system where a greenhouse
gas or a precursor of a greenhouse gas is stored.
8. “Sink” means any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an
aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.
9. “Source” means any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a
precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
Article 2
OBJECTIVE
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The ultimate objective of this Convention and any
related legal instruments that the Conference of the
Parties (COP) may adopt is to achieve, in accordance
with the relevant provisions of the Convention,
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Such a level should be achieved within a time frame
sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner.
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Article 3 Principles
Article 4. Commitments
(a) Develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the COP, in accordance
with Article 12, national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and
removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using
comparable methodologies to be agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties;
(b) Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where
appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by
addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse
gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate
adaptation to climate change;
(c) Promote and cooperate in the development, application and diffusion, including
transfer, of technologies, practices and processes that control, reduce or prevent
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol
in all relevant sectors, including the energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and
waste management sectors;
(d) Promote sustainable management, and promote and cooperate in the conservation
and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse gases not
controlled by the Montreal Protocol, including biomass, forests and oceans as well as
other terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems;
(e) Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change
Article 5. Research and Systematic observation
Article 6. Education, Training and Public Awareness
Participant
ITALY
BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
POLAND
SERBIA
UNITED KINGDOM OF
GREAT BRITAIN AND
NORTHERN
IRELAND (6) (7)
Upon signature:
Declaration:
Signature
Ratification
Entry into force
"The European Economic Community and its Member States declare, for the
Acceptance (A)
purposes of clarity, that the inclusion of the European Community as well as its
Accession
(a)Convention is without prejudice
Member States in the lists in the
Annexes to the
to the division of competence Approval
and responsibilities
between the Community and
(AA)
its Member States, which is to be declared in accordance with article 21 (3) of
Succession (d)
the Convention."
5 Jun 1992
15 Apr 1994
14 Jul 1994
Upon approval:
Declaration:
7 Sep 2000 a
6 Dec 2000
"The European Economic Community and its Member States declare that
the commitment to limit anthropogenic CO 2 emissions set out in article 4(2) of
the Convention will be fulfilled in the Community as a whole through action by
5 Jun 1992
28 within
Jul 1994
Oct 1994
the Community
and its Member States,
the respective com-26
petence
of
each.
In this perspective, the Community and its Member States reaffirm the
12 Mar 2001a
objectives set out in the Council conclusions
of 29 October 1990, 10
andJun
in 2001
particular the objective of stabilization of CO 2 emission by 2000 and 1990 level
in the Community
as a whole.
12 Jun 1992
8 Dec 1993
21 Mar 1996
The European Economic Community and its Member States are elaborating a
coherent strategy in order to attain this objective."
Macedonia
EU
Total
???
???
13 Jun 1992
21 Dec 1993 AA
21 Mar 1994
165 Signatories
194 Parties
Annex I
Developed countries and countries from central and eastern Europe acceted
responsibility for 75% of recent pollution, and 25% is from 100 developing
countries
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Australia
Austria
Belarusa
Belgium
Bulgariaa
Canada
Croatia*
Czech Republica *
Denmark
European Economic Community
Estoniaa
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungarya
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Latviaa
Liechtenstein*
Lithuaniaa
Luxembourg
Monaco*
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Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Polanda
Portugal
Romaniaa
Russian Federationa
Slovakiaa*
Sloveniaa*
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukrainea
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
United States of America
a Countries that are undergoing the process of transition
to a market economy.
* Publisher’s note: Countries added to Annex I by an
amendment that entered into force
Annex II
Developed industrial countries accepted to provide funds for support of
developing countries
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Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
European Economic Community
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
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Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland
United States of America
Publisher’s note: Turkey was deleted
from Annex II by an amendment that
entered into force
28 June 2002, pursuant to decision
26/CP.7 adopted at COP.7.
Non –Annex I Party
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Don’t have to reduce
amount of GHG emission
Among them are Serbia
and Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Download from http://data.sfb.rs/nenad.keca
Kyoto Protocol
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The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement
linked to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. The major
feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets
binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and
the European community for reducing greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions .These amount to an
average of five per cent against 1990 levels over
the five-year period 2008-2012.
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The major distinction between the Protocol and the
Convention is that while the
Convention encouraged industrialized countries to
stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them
to do so.
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Recognizing that developed countries are principally
responsible for the current high levels of GHG
emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than
150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a
heavier burden on developed nations under the
principle of “common but differentiated
responsibilities”.
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The Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted at the third session of the
Conference of the Parties (COP 3) in Kyoto, Japan, on 11
December 1997. In accordance with Article 24, it was open for
signature from 16 March 1998 to 15 March 1999 at United Nations
Headquarters, New York. By that date the Protocol had received 84
signatures.
Pursuant to Article 22, the Protocol is subject to ratification,
acceptance, approval or accession by Parties to the UNFCCC.
Parties to the UNFCCC that have not signed the Protocol may
accede to it at any time.
The Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005 in
accordance with Article 23, that is the ninetieth day after the date on
which not less than 55 Parties to the UNFCCC, incorporating Parties
included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55 % of the
total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Parties included in
Annex I, have deposited their instruments of ratification,
acceptance, approval or accession.
Currently, there are 192 Parties (191 States and 1 regional
economic integration organization) to the Kyoto Protocol to the
UNFCCC. The total percentage of Annex I Parties emissions is
63.7%.
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Parties
The Convention divides countries into three main groups according to differing
commitments:
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Annex I Parties include the industrialized countries that were members of the OECD
(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in 1992, plus countries with
economies in transition (the EIT Parties), including the Russian Federation, the Baltic
States, and several Central and Eastern European States.
http://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/parties/annex_i/items/2774.php
Annex II Parties consist of the OECD members of Annex I, but not the EIT Parties. They
are required to provide financial resources to enable developing countries to undertake
emissions reduction activities under the Convention and to help them adapt to adverse
effects of climate change. In addition, they have to "take all practicable steps" to promote
the development and transfer of environmentally friendly technologies to EIT Parties and
developing countries. Funding provided by Annex II Parties is channeled mostly through
the Convention’s financial mechanism.
Non-Annex I Parties are mostly developing countries. Certain groups of developing
countries are recognized by the Convention as being especially vulnerable to the adverse
impacts of climate change, including countries with low-lying coastal areas and those prone
to desertification and drought. Others (such as countries that rely heavily on income from
fossil fuel production and commerce) feel more vulnerable to the potential economic
impacts of climate change response measures. The Convention emphasizes activities that
promise to answer the special needs and concerns of these vulnerable countries, such as
investment, insurance and technology transfer.
http://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/parties/non_annex_i/items/2833.php
The 49 Parties classified as least developed countries (LDCs) by the United Nations are
given special consideration under the Convention on account of their limited capacity to
respond to climate change and adapt to its adverse effects.
Participant
ITALY
Signature
29 Apr 1998
16 Feb 2005
16 Apr 2007 a
15 Jul 2007
13 Dec 2002
16 Feb 2005
19 Oct 2007 a
17 Jan 2008
31 May 2002(6) (7)
16 Feb 2005
???
???
29 Apr 1998
31 May 2002 AA
16 Feb 2005
84 Signatories
192 Parties
15 Jul 1998
SERBIA
UNITED KINGDOM OF
GREAT BRITAIN AND
NORTHERN
IRELAND (6) (7)
29 Apr 1998
MACEDONIA
EU
Total
Entry into
force
31 May 2002
BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
POLAND
Ratification
Acceptance (A)
Accession (a)
Approval (AA)
Succession (d)
% of
emission
3.1%
3.1%
Anex A
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Greenhouse gases
Carbon dioxide (C02)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N20)
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
Sectors/source categories
Energy
Fuel combustion
Energy industries
Manufacturing industries and
construction
Transport
Other sectors
Fugitive emissions from fuels
Solid fuels
Oil and natural gas
Other
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Industrial processes
Mineral products
Chemical industry
Metal production
Other production
Production of halocarbons and sulphur
hexafluoride
Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur
hexafluoride
Other
Solvent and other product use
Agriculture
Enteric fermentation
Manure management
Rice cultivation
Agricultural soils
Prescribed burning of savannas
Field burning of agricultural residues
Other
Waste
Solid waste disposal on land
Wastewater handling
Waste incineration
Other
Annex B
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Australia 108
Austria 92
Belgium 92
Bulgaria* 92
Canada 94
Croatia* 95
Czech Republic* 92
Denmark 92
Estonia* 92
European Community 92
Finland 92
France 92
Germany 92
Greece 92
Hungary* 94
Iceland 110
Ireland 92
Italy 92
Japan 94
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Latvia* 92
Liechtenstein 92
Lithuania* 92
Luxembourg 92
Monaco 92
Netherlands 92
New Zealand 100
Norway 101
Poland* 94
Portugal 92
Romania* 92
Russian Federation* 100
Slovakia* 92
Slovenia* 92
Spain 92
Sweden 92
Switzerland 92
Ukraine* 100
United Kingdom of Britain 92
United States of America 93
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The Mechanisms under the Kyoto
Protocol
The Kyoto mechanisms are:
Emissions Trading
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Joint Implementation (JI)
The Kyoto mechanisms:
Stimulate sustainable development through technology transfer
and investment;
Help countries with Kyoto commitments to meet their targets by
reducing emissions or removing carbon from the atmosphere in
other countries in a cost-effective way;
Encourage the private sector and developing countries to
contribute to emission reduction efforts;
Emissions Trading
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Parties with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex B
Parties) have accepted targets for limiting or reducing
emissions. These targets are expressed as levels of allowed
emissions, or “assigned amounts,” over the 2008-2012
commitment period. The allowed emissions are divided into
“assigned amount units” (AAUs).
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Emissions trading, as set out in Article 17 of the Kyoto
Protocol, allows countries that have emission units to spare emissions permitted them but not "used" - to sell this excess
capacity to countries that are over their targets.
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Thus, a new commodity was created in the form of emission
reductions or removals. Since carbon dioxide is the principal
greenhouse gas, people speak simply of trading in carbon.
Carbon is now tracked and traded like any other commodity.
This is known as the "carbon market."
Other trading units in the carbon market
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More than actual emissions units can be traded and sold under
the Kyoto Protocol’s emissions trading scheme.
The other units which may be transferred under the scheme,
each equal to one tone of CO2, may be in the form of:
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A removal unit (RMU) on the basis of land use, land-use
change and forestry (LULUCF) activities such as reforestation
An emission reduction unit (ERU) generated by a joint
implementation project
A certified emission reduction (CER) generated from a clean
development mechanism project activity
Transfers and acquisitions of these units are tracked and
recorded through the registry systems under the Kyoto
Protocol.
An international transaction log ensures secure transfer of
emission reduction units between countries.
The carbon market is a key tool for reducing emissions
worldwide. It was worth 30 billion USD in 2006 and is
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
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Some facts about C “sink”:
Forests, through growth of trees and an increase in soil carbon, contain a
large part of the carbon stored on land. Forests present a significant global
carbon stock. Global forest vegetation stores 283 Gt of carbon in its
biomass, 38 Gt in dead wood and 317 Gt in soils (top 30 cm) and litter. The
total carbon content of forest ecosystems has been estimated at 638 Gt for
2005, which is more than the amount of carbon in the entire atmosphere.
This standing carbon is combined with a gross terrestrial uptake of carbon,
which was estimated at 2.4 Gt a year, a good deal of which is sequestration
by forests.
Management and/or conversion of land uses (e.g. forests, croplands and
grazing lands) affects sources and sinks of CO2, CH4 and N2O. According
to the IPCC WGIII (2007), during the decade of the 1990s, deforestation in
the tropics and forest re-growth in temperate and boreal zones remained the
major factors contributing to emissions and removals of greenhouse gases
(GHG) respectively. The IPCC WG1 (2007) reported that estimated CO2
emissions associated with land-use change, averaged over the 1990s, were
0.5 to 2.7 GtC yr–1, with a central estimate of 1.6 GtCyr-1.
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General mitigation options could include forest-related
activities such as reducing emissions from deforestation and
degradation, enhancing the sequestration rate in new or
existing forests, and using wood fuels and wood products as
substitutes for fossil fuels and more energy-intensive
materials. A variety of options for mitigation of GHG
emissions also exists in other land systems.
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The most prominent example is agriculture, where options
include improved crop and grazing land management (e.g.,
improved agronomic practices, nutrient use, tillage and residue
management), restoration of organic soils that are drained for
crop production, and restoration of degraded lands.

However, the main drawback of LULUCF activities is their
potential reversibility and non-permanence of carbon stocks as
a result of human activities, (with the release of GHG into the
atmosphere), disturbances (e.g. forest fires or disease), or
environmental change, including climate change.
Issues and agenda item topics relating
to LULUCF




Reducing emissions from deforestation in
developing countries
LULUCF under the Convention
LULUCF under the Kyoto Protocol
Harvested Wood Products
Reducing emissions from
deforestation in developing countries

According to the FAO (2005), deforestation, mainly
conversion of forests to agricultural land, continues at an
alarming rate of approximately 13 million hectares per year
(for the period 1990–2005). Deforestation results in
immediate release of the carbon originally stored in the trees
as CO2 emissions (with small amounts of CO and CH4),
particularly if the trees are burned and the slower release of
emissions from the decay of organic matter. The IPCC WGIII
(2007) estimated emissions from deforestation in the 1990s to
be at 5.8 GtCO2/yr. The IPCC also notes that reducing and/or
preventing deforestation is the mitigation option with the
largest and most immediate carbon stock impact in the short
term per hectare and per year globally as the release of carbon
as emissions into the atmosphere is prevented.
Reporting of the LULUCF sector under the Convention





Under the Convention, the commitments by Parties to mitigate climate
change are defined in Article 4. These commitments take into account
Parties’ common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific
national and regional development priorities, objectives and
circumstances. Article 4 has references to commitments relating to the
land use, land-use change and forestry sector:
Article 4, paragraph 1(a): Develop, periodically update, publish and
make available to the COP, in accordance with Article 12, national
inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by
sinks of all greenhouse gases (GHGs)* not controlled by the Montreal
Protocol, using comparable methodologies to be agreed upon by the
Conference of the Parties.
(*including inventories of GHG emissions and removals from the
LULUCF sector)
Article 4, paragraph 1(d): Promote sustainable management, and
promote and cooperate in the conservation and enhancement, as
appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all GHGs not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol, including biomass, forests and oceans as well as
other terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems.
The “Good Practice Guidance for Land use, Land-use Change and Forestry”
(IPCC GPG for LULUCF) was adopted by the IPCC Plenary in 2003.
LULUCF under the Kyoto Protocol



In Article 2, sub-paragraphs 1(a) (ii) and (iii), Annex I Parties, in meeting their emission
reduction commitments under Article 3, shall implement and/or further elaborate
policies and measures to protect and enhance sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases
(GHGs) not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, promote sustainable forest
management, afforestation and reforestation and sustainable forms of agriculture.
Annex I Parties must report emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs
resulting from LULUCF activities, in accordance with Article 3, paragraphs 3 and
4. Under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, Parties decided that net changes in GHG
emissions by sources and removals by sinks through direct human-induced LULUCF
activities, limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation that occurred since
1990, can be used to meet Parties’ emission reduction commitments. Under Article 3.4
of the Kyoto Protocol, Parties may elect additional human-induced activities related to
LULUCF specifically, forest management, cropland management, grazing land
management and revegetation, to be included in their accounting of anthropogenic
GHG emissions and removals for the first commitment period. Upon election, this
decision by a Party is fixed for the first commitment period. The changes in carbon
stock and GHG emissions relating to LULUCF activities under Article 3, paragraphs 3
and 4 must be reported for each year of the commitment period, beginning with the start
of the commitment period, or with the start of the activity, whichever is later. When
LULUCF activities under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 result in a net removal of GHGs, an
Annex I Party can issue removal units (RMUs) on the basis of these activities as part of
meeting its commitment under Article 3.1.
In addition, under Article 3, paragraph 7, for the purpose of calculating the assigned
amount, an Annex I Party for which land-use change and forestry constituted a net
source of GHG emissions in 1990 shall include in their 1990 emissions base year or
period the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by sources
minus removals by sinks in 1990 from land-use change (according to paragraph 5(b)
in the annex to 13/CMP.1, this refers to: all emissions by sources minus removals by
sinks reported in relation to the conversion of forests (deforestation).
Harvested Wood Products




The carbon cycle is affected when forests are harvested.
CO2 is released during harvesting and manufacture of wood
products and by the use and disposal of wood. In the IPCC
recommended default approach (Revised 1996 IPCC
Guidelines), all CO2 emissions and removals associated with
forest harvesting and the oxidation of wood products are
accounted for by the country in the year of harvesting
(removal).
The proposed method recommends that storage of carbon in
forest products be included in a national inventory only in the
case where a country can document that existing stocks of long
term forest products are in fact increasing.
Methodologies and good practice for the estimating and
reporting of emissions and removals from HWP can be found
in Appendix 3a.1 in the IPCC good practice guidance for
LULUCF (2003).
Cooperation with other organizations




The emergence of and continuing significance of issues related to
LULUCF has stimulated cooperation with many organizations and
institutions with forestry and agriculture experiences.
The United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF). The UNFF is an
intergovernmental process with the objective of promoting the
management, conservation and sustainable development of all types of
forests. It succeeded a five-year period (1995-2000) of forest policy
dialogue facilitated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Forests (IPF) and
the Intergovernmental Forum on Forests (IFF).
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). For
example, the forestry department of FAO has considerable experience in
building capacity in developing countries and in assessing the global status
of forests. Its work includes the development of definitions and the
publication of the Global Forest Resources Assessment as a contribution to
knowledge on the state of the world’s forests.
The Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF). The CPF is an informal
body intended to foster cooperation and coordination among international
organizations working on forest issues. Among its initiatives, the CPF has
created a task force on streamlining reporting, to explore ways to
harmonize and improve reporting on forest issues under different
international processes, including the UNFCCC.
Emission Trading System
(EU ETS)







In January 2005 the European Union
Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading
System (EU ETS) commenced operation
as the largest multi-country, multi-sector
Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading System world-wide.
The scheme is based on Directive 2003/87/EC, which entered
into force on 25 October 2003.
Allowances traded in the EU ETS will not be printed but held
in accounts in electronic registries set up by Member States.
All of these registries will be overseen by a Central
Administrator at EU level who, through the Community
independent transaction log, will check each transaction for
any irregularities. In this way, the registries system keep track
of the ownership of allowances in the same way as a banking
system keeps track of the ownership of money.
Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM)




The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (KP Article 12) allows a country
with an emission-reduction or emission-limitation commitment under the Kyoto
Protocol (Annex B Party) to implement an emission-reduction project in
developing countries. Such projects can earn saleable certified emission
A removal
unittonne
(RMU)
on the which
basis ofcan
landbe
reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent
to one
of CO2,
counted towards meeting Kyoto targets.
use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
such as
The mechanism is seen by many asactivities
a trailblazer.
It reforestation
is the first global,
environmental investment and creditAnscheme
of reduction
its kind, providing
emission
unit (ERU)a generated
standardized emissions offset instrument,
CERs.
by a joint
implementation project
A CDM project activity might involve,
for example,
A certified
emissiona rural electrification
project using solar panels or the installation
moregenerated
energy-efficient
boilers.
reductionof
(CER)
from a clean
The mechanism stimulates sustainable
development
and emission
reductions,
development
mechanism
project activity
while giving industrialized countries
some flexibility
in how
Transfers
and acquisitions
of they
thesemeet
units their
are
emission reduction or limitation targets.
tracked and recorded through the registry
systems under the Kyoto Protocol.

Operational since the beginning of 2006, the mechanism has already registered
more than 1,650 projects and is anticipated to produce CERs amounting to
more than 2.9 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in the first commitment period of
the Kyoto Protocol, 2008–2012.
Joint Implementation (JI)


The mechanism known as “joint implementation,”
(KP Art. 6) allows a country with an emission
reduction or limitation commitment under Annex B
Party to earn emission reduction units (ERUs) from
an emission-reduction or emission removal project in
another Annex B Party, each equivalent to one tonne
of CO2, which can be counted towards meeting its
Kyoto target.
Joint implementation offers Parties a flexible and
cost-efficient means of fulfilling a part of their Kyoto
commitments, while the host Party benefits from
foreign investment and technology transfer.
Registry systems under the Kyoto Protocol





Emission targets for industrialized country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
are expressed as levels of allowed emissions, or “assigned amounts”, over
the 2008-2012 commitment period. Such assigned amounts are
denominated in tonnes (of CO2 equivalent emissions) known informally as
“Kyoto units”. The ability of Parties to add to their holdings of Kyoto units
(e.g. through credits for CDM or LULUCF activities) or move units from
one country to another (e.g. through emissions trading or JI projects)
requires registry systems that can track the location of Kyoto units at all
times.
Two types of registry are being implemented:
Governments of the 38 Annex B Parties are implementing national
registries, containing accounts within which units are held in the name of
the government or in the name of legal entities authorized by the
government to hold and trade units.
The UNFCCC secretariat, under the authority of the CDM Executive
Board, has implemented the CDM registry for issuing CDM credits and
distributing them to national registries. Accounts in the CDM registry are
held only by CDM project participants, as the registry does not accept
emissions trading between accounts.
In addition to recording the holdings of Kyoto units, these registries “settle”
emissions trades by delivering units from the accounts of sellers to those of
buyers, thus forming the backbone infrastructure for the carbon market.
Kyoto units
Unit
Unit name
AAU
Assigned
Amount Units
RMU
Removal
Units
Issuer
Description
National registry
Units representing the
initial assigned amount
of each Annex B Party
Kyoto Protocol
Article 3.7
National registry
Units given for net
removals from land use,
land-use change and
forestry activities
Article 3.3, 3.4
ERU
Emission
Reduction
Units
National registry
Units converted from
AAUs or RMUs on the
basis of JI projects
Article 6
CER
Certified
Emissions
Reductions
CDM
registry
Credits given for
emission reductions
certified for a CDM
project
Article 12
CDM
registry
Credits given for
emission removals
certified for an
afforestation or
reforestation CDM
project (to be replaced
upon expiry at end of the
second commitment
period)
Article 12
tCER
lCER
Temporary
CERs
Long-term
CERs
CDM
registry
Credits given for
emission removals
certified for an A&R
CDM project
(to be replaced upon
expiry at end of the
project’s crediting
Article 12
Kyoto transaction types
Issuance
Initial creation of an AAU, RMU, CER, tCER or lCER
Conversion
Transformation of an AAU or RMU into an ERU based on a
JI project.
External transfer
External transfer of a unit from one registry to another
registry.
Cancellation
Internal transfer of a unit to a cancellation account, in order
that it may not be used for compliance with an emission
target.
Replacement
Internal transfer of a unit to a replacement account, in order
to replace tCERs or lCERs when required.
Retirement
Internal transfer of a unit to a retirement account, in order
that it can be used by the Annex B Party for compliance
with its emission target.
Carry-Over
Change of validity an AAU, ERU (only those converted
from AAUs) or CER from one commitment period to the
next.
Expiry date change
Change in the expiry date of a tCER or lCER.
Internal transfer between holding
accounts
Internal transfer of a unit between holding accounts within
the same registry (the ITL does not verify such transactions
but forwards them to the CITL to allow their verification
Registry
Date of initialization passed
Date of Live connection with ITL
CDM Registry
Not applicable
14 November 2007
Australia
19 December 2008
19 December 2008
Austria
12 July 2007
16 October 2008
Belgium
7 December 2007
16 October 2008
Bulgaria
10 April 2008
16 October 2008
Croatia
30 April 2009
11 December 2009
Czech Republic
2 August 2007
16 October 2008
Denmark
16 October 2007
16 October 2008
Estonia
12 November 2007
16 October 2008
European Community
1 February 2008
16 October 2008
Finland
16 November 2007
16 October 2008
France
9 November 2007
16 October 2008
Germany
23 November 2007
16 October 2008
Greece
27 September 2007
16 October 2008
Hungary
8 August 2007
11 July 2008
Italy
5 December 2007
16 October 2008
Methodological Issues, Reporting and Review under
the Kyoto Protocol








The Kyoto Protocol’s effectiveness will depend upon two critical factors:
whether Parties follow the Protocol’s rulebook and comply with their
commitments;
and whether the emissions data used to assess compliance is reliable.
The Protocol’s monitoring procedures are based on existing reporting and
review procedures under the Convention, building on experience gained in the
climate change process over the past decade. They also involve additional
accounting procedures that are needed to track and record Parties’ holdings and
transactions of Kyoto Protocol units - assigned amount units (AAUs), certified
emission reductions (CERs) and emission reduction units (ERUs) - and removal
units (RMUs) generated by LULUCF activities.
Articles 5, 7 and 8 of the Kyoto Protocol address reporting and review of
information by Annex I Parties under the Protocol, as well as national systems
and methodologies for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories.
Article 5 commits Annex I Parties to having in place, no later than 2007, national
systems for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions by sources and
removals by sinks (Article 5.1). It also states that, where agreed methodologies
(that is, the revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National GH Inventories .
Article 7 requires Annex I Parties to submit annual greenhouse gas
inventories, as well as national communications, at regular intervals, both
including supplementary information to demonstrate compliance with the
Protocol.
Article 8 establishes that expert review teams will review the inventories.
Adaptation

Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change is vital in order to
reduce the impacts of climate change that are happening now and increase
resilience to future impacts. The UNFCCC webpages on adaptation
highlight the range of issues that are being addressed by Parties under
the various Convention bodies, including

Enhanced action on adaptation as part of the Bali Action Plan under the
Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the
Convention (AWG-LCA)

Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to
climate change, development and transfer of
technologies, research and systematic observation under the Subsidiary
Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)

Issues related to implementing, including national adaptation programmes
of action (NAPAs), and supporting adaptation
through finance, technology and capacity-building under the Subsidiary
Body for Implementation (SBI)

Successful adaptation not only depends on governments but also on
the active and sustained engagement of stakeholders, including national,
regional, multilateral and international organizations, the public and private
sectors (private sector initiative), civil society and other relevant
stakeholders.
Visible results of KP implementation
http://maps.unfccc.int/di/map/
Party
Italy
Quantified
emission
limitation or
reduction
commitment
(percentage of
base year or
period level)
93.5
Base year for
F-gases
1990
Base year level of total
national emissions as
determined by the
initial review (tonnes
CO2equivalent)
Source of base
year data (initial
review reports)
516,850,887
FCCC/IRR/2007/ITA
Japan
94.0
1995
1,261,331,418
FCCC/IRR/2007/JPN
Australia
108.0
1990
547,699,841
FCCC/IRR/2007/AUS
3,323,419,064
FCCC/IRR/2007/RUSS
Russian
100.0
Federation
1995
How is Kyoto progressing
European Climate Change Programme



Intended to establish a working-group on forest-related carbon
sequestration (sinks) once the rules and procedures for the accounting of
carbon credits and debits from different forest types and their management
became clear.
At COP7 in November 2001, the definitions, rules and modalities for sinks
were agreed, including the activities under Art. 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol
(afforestation, reforestation and deforestation) as well as (optionally) those
under Art. 3.4, such as forest management. Sink credits gained by activities
under Art. 3.3 are unlimited, while debits can be off-set up to a certain
amount by forest management activities under Art. 3.4. At the same time,
credits for Parties under Art. 3.4 are subject to individual quotas for forest
management (including Joint Implementation), totalling a maximum of
5.17 Mt C (approx. 19Mt CO2eq) per year.
The working group members identified a number of promising “candidate
technical measures” (forestry practices) and assessed their carbon
sequestration potential, together with other environmental and socioeconomic effects. In addition, the group also considered a series of policy
guidelines and recommendations, and identified a number of EU policy
instruments that can be used to promote the candidate technical measures.
Afforestation, reforestation and deforestation

Between 1990 and 2000, afforestation and reforestation activities have extended
the total EU forest area of 113Mha by 340,000ha/yr. or 3% , resulting from nearly
equal surfaces of planted forests and natural forest expansion. The Group estimates
that, if this process continues at the same rate during the present decade, it may
result in a sequestration potential of approximately 3.84Mt C/yr. (14Mt CO2 eq/yr)
during the first commitment period. In case of a sustained afforestation trend and
taking into account an extended EU of 25 Member States, a technical sequestration
potential of 34Mt C/yr (125Mt CO2 eq) may be reached in the long term.

The following ARD activities were considered:

Afforestation programmes;

Natural expansion of forests;

Short rotation tree plantations on former agricultural land;

Deforestation.
Forest management

Forest management measures have an important potential for application as they
can cover a much larger area than ARD activities, implying that small GHG benefits
per unit area may yield large impacts. For the first commitment period the potential
is capped at 5.17 Mt C (19Mt CO2eq). Very rough IPCC estimates of the
quantitative impact of forest management measures indicate a potential for an
average gain of 20% in yearly carbon uptake by adapting management, but there is a
need for more accurate EU figures. The socio-economic impacts of adapting forest
management are expected to be more important than in the case of ARD measures
and might therefore require more directed policy support.

The following forest management activities were proposed:

Establishment of forest reserve areas.

Restoration of forest wetlands.

Continuous cover forest management

Prevention of forest fires

Improved management of fast growing plantations in S. Europe
Forests





Old-growth forests still take up carbon;
Highest carbon uptake in forest converting to natural
state (dead wood), along with highest biodiversity;
Long-term carbon storage opposes maximum carbon
substitution;
Carbon losses after clearcut and during establishment
of plantations on soil rich in labile carbon may need
10 or more years to be compensated by NEE
Forestry on peat/peaty soils is at best climate-neutral
(CH4, N2O)
Copenhagen Accord






The Conference of the Parties (COP), at its fifteenth session,
took note of the Copenhagen Accord of 18 December 2009 by
way of decision 2/CP.15.
The chapeau of the Copenhagen Accord lists the following
114 Parties agreeing to the Accord:
Specific information provided by Parties on quantified
economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 and on nationally
appropriate mitigation actions of developing country Parties
can be found here:
Information provided by Annex I Parties relating to Appendix
I of the Copenhagen Accord
http://unfccc.int/home/items/5264.php
(quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020)
The text of the Copenhagen Accord can be found here.
Outcome!!!

For the first commitment period 2008-2012,
the combined potentially accountable carbon
credits for the EU from ARD measures 3.84Mt
C/yr or 14Mt CO2 eq/yr) and Forest
management (capped at 5.17 Mt C/yr or 19Mt
CO2eq/yr) would thus be approximately 9Mt
C/yr or 33Mt CO2eq /yr, which is roughly 10
% of the corresponding EU emission reduction
target of ca. 337 Mt CO2 eq /yr.
Recent events and observations







Russian Federation 1.5 mill. ha burned in forest fires, about
2000 died, 15 bill. $ damage;
Pakistan 6 mill people moved in front of floods, 1600 people
died, 6 bill. $ damage;
NASA announced this year as warmest in last 131 year period;
Great floods all over the world central Europe, China, etc.
This was one of the coldest winter in Europe.
Recently, volcano Sinabung on Sumatra started with eruption
after 400 years;
And so on….
WHAT IS NEXT?
WHAT WE CAN
DO?


THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION
Presentation can be downloaded form http://data.sfb.rs/nenad.keca