Download Rwanda National Energy and Low carbon Assessment: Key Messages

Impacts and Economics of Climate Change in the
United Republic of Tanzania
Paul Watkiss
Development Partners Group
on Environment and Climate Change
From climate change to impacts

Changes to the climate of URT will lead to impacts

Higher temperatures - built environment,
agriculture, natural systems

Changes in rainfall – water availability, agricultural,
energy production

Changes in extreme events - floods and drought
events, property damage, losses

Sea level rise from higher global temperature
affecting coastal areas, islands, ecosystems
First National Communication
Increasing vulnerability to

agriculture,

water resources,

forestry,

grasslands, livestock,

coastal resources and

wildlife and biodiversity
Priority effects of climate change – NAPA
NAPA identified key areas at risk of climate change

Agriculture and food security

Health

Forest and wetlands

Energy

Coastal and marine resources

Wildlife

Tourism

Industry
But also economic costs from climate change

The climate is changing - higher temperatures, changes in seasonal patterns,
more intense droughts these will have important economic costs

Global climate policy is changing and opportunities are emerging – new
markets, mechanisms and funds

Climate change is becoming an economic, planning and finance issue, not
(just) an environmental one
Economics of Climate Change
Scoping Study for Development Partners Group, DFID funded. Aims are
1. Assess potential impacts and economic costs of climate change
2. Scope the cost and benefits of adapting to these effects over time
3. Assess the opportunities and potential for low carbon growth and finances
Advised by GoT, working with local partners:

Aiming to provide information for different end-users, at different scales
Current Climate
Existing climate variability already has significant
economic costs in Tanzania

Tanzania’s economy is very dependent on its climate.



High % of GDP associated with climate sensitive sectors,
especially agriculture
Current climate variability, i.e. periodic floods and droughts, already
have significant economic costs in Tanzania

These cause major economic costs >1% GDP and affect
millions of livelihoods

Repeated pattern over time reduces long-term growth
Tanzania is not adequately adapted to deal with existing climate, i.e.
it has an existing adaptation deficit
Existing climate variability
Recent severe events 1996/97, 1999-2000 and 2005/2006 - affect many sectors

Agriculture production falls and failures

Insufficient rainfall for hydroelectric power generation and urban water supplies

Central Bank of Tanzania estimated economy grew 1% in 2007 lower than
expected due to electricity shortage

Also major effects flooding – overall and localised

1997/1998, in 2000/01, in Kilosa in 2009 – cereal losses, infrastructure losses

2005 floods in Zanzibar estimated 10 000 people losing their homes
Impacts and economic costs of climate change
Headline: Future climate change will lead to
additional economic costs, on top of current impacts

Africa is predicted to have greater impacts than other
world regions, even in short term

Economic costs are uncertain, but indicate magnitude

Additional (net) economic costs to Tanzania could be
equivalent to 1 – 2% / year of GDP by 2030

Compound impact year on year would threaten Vision
objectives and reduce growth
Key
0 – 1% GDP loss
1 – 2% GDP loss
2 – 3% GDP loss

Without global mitigation, impacts in later years after
2030 could be very severe
2030
Source FUND National model
The future effects of climate change are uncertain

Future climate model projections vary, especially for rainfall and extreme events

All models show rising temperatures, but range of 1 – 3C by 2050s

Rainfall trends less clear. Results vary with model, season and region

Changes in extreme events less certain


Many projections show increases in heavy rain (flood risk)

Pattern for future droughts unclear, but possible increases or decreases
But not a reason for inaction
And socio-economic change will as important

Future effects of climate change are strongly
influenced by socio-economic change

The Vision will reduce some climate impacts through
sound development.

However, population growth and infrastructure will
continue to drive effects

Population, per capita income – affect
vulnerability, adaptive capacity, impacts

Development can reduce but also sometimes
increase vulnerability
Climate change will lead to sectoral risks
Source University of Southampton
Sea level rise and Coastal Zones

Risk of flooding, loss of land, erosion, loss of ecosystems

Additional 0.3 – 1.6 million people /year by 2030

Impacts of up to $50 million/year by 2030, rising to $100 to $200 million/year by 2050

Possibly 8% of wetlands lost
Total Cost of Damage (US$million/year)
1.4
Rahmstorf
1.2
Sea level rise (m)
1
A1FI high-range
A1B mid-range
B1 low-range
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
350
Rahmstorf SLR and A1B SES
300
A1B mid range and A1B SES
250
B1 low-range and B1 SES
200
A1B socio-economic only (no SLR)
150
100
50
0
2000
2025
2050
2075
Coastal risks
Mbweni
Dar es Salaam
Ü
Bunju
Kunduchi
Goba
Mbezi
Kimara
Kibamba
Kawe
Source University of Southampton
MikocheniMsasani
Kijitonyama
UbungoSinza Kinondoni
Manzese
MakuburiMabibo
Kivukoni
Tabata llalaKeko Kigamboni
Segerea
SandaliMiburaniKurasini
Kiwalani
VijibweniMji Mwema
Mtoni
Kipawa
Ukonga
Yombo VitukaAzimio
Kibada
Pugu
Makangarawe
Mbagala
Kuu
Mbagala
Kitunda
Charambe Toangoma
Kinyerezi
Somangira
Chamazi
Chanika
Kisarawe II
Msongola
Chanika

Kimbiji
Dar es Salaam: Population Distribution
< 10,000
Dar es Salaam – will be a mega city
by 2040
Pemba Mnazi
10,000 - 20,000
20,000 - 30,000
30,000 - 40,000
> 40,000
0
2.5
5
10 Kilometers

8% of the land area of city, 140,000
people, and economic assets worth more
than $170 million, are currently below the
10m contour line, i.e. in potentially
vulnerable

Extreme high water flooding – $400
million of assets potentially at risk (2030)

important in relation to the current Dar
development plans.
Zanzibar Archipelago and Islands
Source University of Southampton

Important risks to Zanzibar (Unguja,
Pemba) and other islands

People at risk, property – Unguja
(425 people per km2), and Pemba
(417 people per km2), densely
populated coastal areas

Impacts to coastal ecosystems
(protection, resources)

Impacts on corals (bleaching,
temperature)

Effects on tourism

Potential effects on fisheries
Market sectors ….Agriculture and Livestock

Complex range of effects
Source Sokoine University

Under more extreme projections, with no adaptation,
maize yields could decrease by

16% by 2030 (reduction 1 million tonnes /year)

25 - 35% by 2050

Shifting agro-ecological zones

But some potential for benefits as well

Impacts on livestock

Affect livelihoods in rural areas, pastoralists
Water availability and Electricity supply

Potential reductions in some river
systems (10% Ruvu, Pangani Rufiji )

Key availability issues for drinking
water, agriculture

Changes need to be seen in context
of baseline water demand increases
30000


Potential changes to electricity supply
Risks to hydro generation
System Generation, GWh
25000
Import
20000
Wind
Coal
15000
Oil
Gas
Hydro
10000
Sales
5000
0
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
Electricity demand

Increasing electricity demand for cooling

Homes, offices, tourism

Big increases with climate change

Higher energy bills

Key issue for electricity planning

Important for peak electricity needed on
the system – more capacity

Climate change not in current demand
forecasts
And non-market sectors…. Health

Malaria a key concern, but also other climate related
disease

Potential rise in treatment costs of $20 to 100 million
/year by 2030

Higher temperatures will also reduce labour
productivity

Also effects of health outbreaks associated with
extreme events – droughts and floods
Forests, biodiversity and ecosystem services

Over 50% of Tanzanian economy relies on ecosystem
services

key for growth, exports, tourism revenues

Provision (food, wood), regulation (water storage), support
(nutrient recycling), and recreational /cultural (tourism)

Underpin Changes in climate will shifting ecological zones

Climate change will have potentially high economic costs


Tourism revenues
As well as affecting many livelihoods
Adaptation
Adaptation

These impacts assume we do nothing and let impacts happen

We can reduce the potential impacts with adaptation

Adaptation = an adjustment in natural or human systems - in response to actual
or expected effects - which reduces impacts or exploits beneficial opportunities.

Various types of adaptation :

Anticipatory or proactive adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before
impacts of climate change are observed..

Autonomous adaptation – spontaneous – individuals, private sector, natural
systems

Planned adaptation – deliberate policy decision
Adaptation can reduce these impacts, but it has a cost

Adaptation can reduce the economic costs of climate change but it has a cost

National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

NAPA outlined initial priorities and costs – but only immediate priorities

Immediate priorities – project levels

proposed 72 project activities

Short list of 14

Final 6 priorities
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
1. Improving food security in drought-prone areas by promoting drought-prone
tolerant crops
2. Improving Water availability to drought-stricken Communities in the Central part of
the country
3. Shifting of Shallow Water Wells Affected by Inundation on the Coastal Regions of
Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar
4. Climate change adaptation through participatory reforestation in Kilimanjaro
Mountain
5. Community Based Mini-hydro for Economic Diversification as a result of Climate
Change in Same District
6. Combating Malaria Epidemic in Newly Mosquito-infested areas
The estimated total project costs for these projects were $17.2 million.
Adaptation can reduce these impacts, but it has a cost

NAPA only immediate priorities – underestimate total costs for adaptation

Estimates of likely full costs of adaptation in Tanzania

Top-down aggregate indicative estimates from scaling African studies to Tanzania


Costs of adaptation depend on what is included or excluded


Focusing on likely level of investment and financial flows
Need to address the current adaptation deficit, as well as preparing for future
Adaptation potential for large finance flows, but institutional capacity needed
Top-down analysis reveals high investment needs
• At least $500 million/year to reduce current vulnerability
Immediate
needs
…….. but probably more
• Further $100-150 million/year to build capacity and
enhance resilience to future climate change
• Needs will rise rapidly to address climate change
By 2030
• Investment of $1 billion/year is potentially needed
• Accessing adaptation funds will require effective policy,
and institutions - need to build capacity is a priority
Adaptation must address climate uncertainty

Unclear exactly what level of change will occur


especially impact on rainfall and droughts
Therefore

Focus on early areas where build capacity

Address existing adaptation deficit (no regrets) and current climate variability

Implement options that good across the uncertainty – robustness not
optimisation
National adaptation – sea level rise

Adaptation can reduce risks significantly

But high investment needed

(up to $80 mill/year by 2030)
No Adaptation
With Adaptation
Source University of Southampton
Local adaptation – sea level rise

Need for short-term monitoring, disaster risk reduction

Reducing vulnerability, e.g. stopping major urbanisation in lowest lying areas

Integrated coastal management

Dar - Spatial planning
(development controls)
to reducing current & future risks

Sea level rise needs to be included in
Dar es Salaam transport and system
development master plan
key
Market sectors, e.g. agriculture
Investigated combination of options that robust against future uncertainty
•
Increase investments in smallholder farmers’ irrigation
•
Introduce soil and water conservation in the highlands
•
Strengthen the capacity of agricultural research institutes to conduct basic and
applied research
60
•
•
Institutionalize climate information data
District Agricultural Development Plans
Invest in rural road infrastructure.
Extra investment needs significant $100 million per year (annualised)
A1B
A2
50
'000,000 of 2010-USD
•
Source Sokoine University
40
30
20
10
0
Irrigation
SWC
Research
Extension
Rural Roads
Non-market sectors – ecosystems
•
Ecosystem based adaptation –
recognizing role have in no regret
measures
•
Key issues for national parks – buffer
zones
•
Issues with including future risks of climate
change to forest and REDD
•
Promising options (Mustelin et al), such as
with coastal zones and shoreline buffer
zones in Zanzibar
Key Conclusions
1. Existing climate variability already leads to significant economic costs in
Tanzania, with costs of major droughts and floods often in > 1% of GDP.
2. Future climate change will lead to additional and potentially very large
economic costs for Tanzania.
3. Adaptation can reduce the impacts of climate change, but it has a cost: the
adaptation financing needs for Tanzania are potentially very large.
………..The key recommendation is for Tanzania to get ready and act now
Next steps – priority areas
Improve the estimates
Build capacity
Mainstream climate change in
sector and national plans
Implement urgent priorities –
addressing current deficit
Risk screening – climate
resilience
Regional collaboration