Download 1. dia - The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup

Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup

Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup

Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup

Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup

Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup

Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup

Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup

Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup

Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup

Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup

ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup

Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup

German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup

General circulation model wikipedia , lookup

Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup

Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup

Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup

Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup

Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup

Global warming wikipedia , lookup

Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup

2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup

Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup

Views on the Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup

Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup

Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup

Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Climate governance wikipedia , lookup

Climate change in Canada wikipedia , lookup

Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup

Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup

Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup

Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup

United Nations Climate Change conference wikipedia , lookup

Paris Agreement wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup

Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup

Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup

Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup

Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup

Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup

Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup

Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
The need and the way of adaptation
in Central and Eastern Europe as
part of the global post-2012 climate
policy
What, where, when and how
we should act for
sustainability?
Tamas Prager , CSc, associate professor
ELTE ( Budapest University of Sciences)
Senior advisor
Hungarian Meteorological Service
Main topics

Foreword – Recent climate change signs and projections for
Europe

The short history and present stage of internationally
organised adaptation to climate change

The possible mechanisms to continue and broaden the role
of worldwide adaptation in the post 2012 climate regime


Sustainable development policies and measures focusing on
adaptation (Appendix 1-may not be included in presentation)
Adaptation in Hungary – the present stage and perspectives
in the post-2012 period (Appendix 2 1-may not be included in presentation)
Foreword – Climate change signs and projections
for Europe

A list of fingerprints and „harbingers” from 1999, GLOBAL
WARMING: Early Warning Signs
Foreword – Climate change signs and projections
for Europe

•
•
A projection (in 2005) before the AR4 for extreme
events
Scientists from eight European countries have spent three years
estimating extreme climate change and its impact on six specific economic
sectors over the next eighty years.The comprehensive MICE report
„Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes” is published this week by the
University of East Anglia™s Climatic Research Unit and concludes that the
issue of global warming tends to be ignored by decision makers in
business and governments because of the long-term predictions.
Their findings confirm that, in the future:
Heat waves will become hotter and last longer over much of Europe
The cold season will become much shorter
Cold days with temperatures below freezing will decrease by up to 4 months in
Northern Europe by 2070
Southern Europe and the Mediterranean will experience drier prolonged droughts
and reduced rainfall
Northern Europe will be wetter in winter but periods of drought are likely to
become more frequent in summer
There will be an increase in winter rain over most of Europe leading to greater
flood risk and water pollution
The number of severe winter storms over Western Europe will increase
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe
The impact of climate change was studied in six sectors: tourism, Mediterranean
agriculture, forestry, water and property insurance.

Tourism
–
–

Water
–

An increased risk of forest fire is expected due to a higher number of dry and hot days in
continental and upland areas. In northern forests, increases in tree damage due to warmer
winters and summer droughts. Spruce, the most economically important tree species in
Europe, is facing increased risk of bark beetle and wind throw damage.
Energy
–

Reductions in yields are expected due to a shorter growing season and extreme events during
development stages including higher risk of heat stress during flowering period and higher risk
of rainy days during sowing dates. This impact will be felt over the southern Mediterranean
and North Africa.
Forestry
–

Floods, droughts and episodes of water pollution are likely to become more severe and more
common in the future during wetter and warmer winters - rainfall will be delivered to rivers
more rapidly due to more frequent rain and less frequent snow.
Agriculture
–

Winter sports in Alps - Snow depth is expected to decrease by about 20~30 per cent by 2020.
More frequent and more intense droughts are likely to discourage Mediterranean holidays as
more southern Europeans head north or take their holiday in spring.
Energy production in Europe is sensitive to extremes of temperature. High temperatures can
lead to the shut down of power plants due to overheating. There will be lower demand in
winter (space heating) and higher in summer (space cooling)
Property Insurance
–
Property damage from windstorm in the UK is expected to increase by 15 per cent by 20702099.
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe

Prof Jean Palutikof, coordinator of MICE who worked on the
project while at the Climatic Research Unit at UEA, said:
– We hope that this report helps inform decision-makers in business and
government so that they can deal with the effect of climate change on
economic activities in Europe?
– Emerging evidence suggests that the impact of climate change on
economic activity such as tourism will be rather sooner than initially
thought, action will be required within the next twenty years.
– Source: University of East Anglia
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe

The Stern Report (2006)
(Reference is made to a previous presentation of the author.)
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe

The IPCC AR4 s’ conclusions (2007)
Expected effects of global warming on Europe (SPM WG2)




For the first time, wide ranging impacts of changes in current climate have been
documented: retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, shift of species ranges, and
health impacts due to a heat wave of unprecedented magnitude. The observed
changes described above are consistent with those projected for future climate
change.
Nearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future
impacts of climate change and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors.
Climate change is expected to magnify regional differences in Europe's natural
resources and assets. Negative impacts will include increased risk of inland flash
floods, and more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion (due to storminess
and sealevel rise). The great majority of organisms and ecosystems will have
difficulties adapting to climate change.
Mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reduced snow cover and winter tourism,
and extensive species losses (in some areas up to 60% under high emission
scenarios by 2080).
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe

The IPCC AR4 s’ conclusions (2007)
Expected effects of global warming on Europe (SPM WG2) (cont.)




In Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to
reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism, and in general,
crop productivity. It is also projected to increase health risks due to heat waves and
the frequency of wildfires.
In Central and Eastern Europe, summer precipitation is projected to decrease,
causing higher water stress. Health risks due to heat waves are projected toincrease.
Forest productivity is expected to decline and thefrequency of peatland fires to
increase.
In Northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects,
including some benefits such as reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields
and increased forest growth. However, as climate change continues, its negative
impacts (including more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems and
increasing ground instability) are likely to outweigh its benefits.
Adaptation to climate change is likely to benefit from experience gained in reaction to
extreme climate events, by specifically implementing proactive climate change risk
management adaptation plans.
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe
(the famous impact chart of IPCC WG2)
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe

Recent warnings
From Bad to Worse: Latest Figures on Global Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (2008)
The U.N. says that even countries that vowed to cut pollution that
causes global warming are churning out more of it
EMISSIONS CREEP: Greenhouse gas emissions from most countries that have
pledged to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases the global warming
pollution are still rising.
–
–
The 38 countries that pledged to restrain their emissions of climate change inducing greenhouse
gases, most notably carbon dioxide (CO2), are failing, according to new figures released today. The
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the body charged with
overseeing global emission reduction efforts, says that, overall, greenhouse emissions—measured in
terms of the most ubiquitous: carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)—dropped by 894 million metric
tons between 1990 and 2006 (the latest year for which figures are available).
But the UNFCCC found that emissions had grown by 2.3 percent—403 million metric tons of CO2e—
from 2000 to 2006, and that the 16-year dip was due entirely to the drop in economic activity
(factory and power plant shutdowns) in former Eastern bloc countries such as Russia after the 1989
fall of communist governments, which led to a decline of more than two billion metric tons of CO2e
emissions. Those countries' economies have recovered since 2000, leading to an increase in CO2e
emissions of some 258 million metric tons, according to UNFCCC.
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Most industrialized European nations as well as China and the U.S. (which have not agreed to any emissions'
reductions) have been spewing more carbon dioxide since 1990—up in total some 403 million metric tons of
CO2e from 2000 levels.
The UNFCCC cautions that emissions may be even worse now, noting that the statistics in the study are already
nearly three years old. "UNFCCC expert review teams need two years to verify the data, partly by traveling to
the countries concerned," says UNFCCC spokesman John Hay. "This makes the UNFCCC data not the freshest,
but the most reliable on the market.„
The U.K. and the Principality of Monaco are the only two European countries that, after pledging to reduce
emissions (by 12.5 percent and 8 percent, respectively) by 2012, appear to be on track. In contrast, Austria,
which vowed in 2002 to cut emissions by over the next 10 years 13 percent below 1990 levels, is instead
pumping out 15 percent more CO2e than it did in 1990. Likewise, Japan is now emitting over 6 percent more
greenhouse gases now than in 1990 despite a promise in 2002 to reduce them by 6 percent by 2012.
Even countries allowed to emit more greenhouse gases under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol (an international
treaty to reduce emissions) to allow further economic development have nearly doubled their allowed growth.
Ireland, for example, has seen greenhouse gas emissions grow by nearly 26 percent when, under the terms of
the treaty, they should only rise by 13 percent.
The treaty signatories have until 2012 to get their acts together. If they continue to exceed their limits by that
date, they will be suspended from international carbon trading, which currently allows them to purchase cheaper
emission reductions from developing countries in lieu of reducing their own; instead, they would be required to
achieve 1.3 times the missed reduction in future years.
World governments are set to gather next month in Poznan, Poland, to continue negotiations on a binding
international agreement to cut globe-warming greenhouse gases after 2012—a so-called successor to the Kyoto
Protocol currently in force.
Under the Bush administration, the U.S. has participated in such talks without accepting a binding emissions
reduction target. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. emitted nearly six billion metric tons of
CO2 last year, up from roughly five billion metric tons in 1990. It remains to be seen how the incoming Obama
administration will proceed, though on the stump the president-elect pledged to cut U.S. emissions to 80 percent
below present levels by 2050.
When releasing today's report, UNFCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer stressed the importance of negotiating a
new and binding agreement to cut climate change pollution. "The figures clearly underscore the urgency for the
U.N. negotiating process to make good progress in Poznan and move forward quickly in designing a new
agreement to respond to the challenge of climate change," he said. He also noted that President-elect Obama
would not attend.
Foreword – Climate change signs and
projections for Europe
16 February 2009
Dire new warning on climate from IPCC scientist






Previously unconsidered positive feedbacks in the climate system (such as the release of arctic
permafrost) have led a Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
scientist to warn that "as a society we are facing a climate crisis that is larger and harder to deal
with than any of us thought."
"Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are rising more rapidly than expected, increasing the danger
that without aggressive action to reduce emissions the climate system could cross a critical
threshold by the end of the century," says Chris Field, director of the Carnegie Institution's
Department of Global Ecology and co-chair of the IPCC Working Group 2. Field is overseeing the
Working Group 2 Report on the predicted impacts of climate change for the IPCC Fifth assessment,
scheduled to be published in 2014.
"The data now show that greenhouse gas emissions are accelerating much faster than we thought,"
says Field. "Over the last decade developing countries such as China and India have increased their
electric power generation by burning more coal. Economies in the developing world are becoming
more, not less carbon-intensive. We are definitely in unexplored terrain with the trajectory of
climate change, in the region with forcing, and very likely impacts, much worse than predicted in
the fourth assessment."
Perhaps more worryingly, new studies are revealing potentially dangerous feedbacks in the climate
system that could convert current carbon sinks into carbon sources. Field points to tropical forests
as a prime example. Vast amounts of carbon are stored in the vegetation of moist tropical forests,
which are resistant to wildfires because of their wetness. But warming temperatures and shifting
rainfall patterns threaten to dry the forests, making them less fireproof. Researchers estimate that
loss of forests through wildfires and other causes during the next century could boost atmospheric
concentration of CO2 by up to 100 parts per million (ppm) over the current 386 ppm, with possibly
devastating consequences for global climate.
At the same time, warming in the Arctic is expected to speed up the decay of plant matter that has
been in cold storage in permafrost for thousands of years. "There is about 1,000 billion tons of
carbon in these soils," says Field. "When you consider that the total amount of carbon released
from fossil fuels since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution is around 350 billion tons, the
implications for global climate are staggering."
"The [previously published] IPCC fourth assessment didn't consider either the tundra-thawing or
tropical forest feedbacks in detail because they weren't yet well understood," he says. "But new
studies are now available, so we should be able to assess a wider range of factors and possible
climate outcomes. One thing that seems to be certain, however, is that as a society we are facing a
climate crisis that is larger and harder to deal with than any of us thought. The sooner we take
decisive action, the better our chances."
The present stage of adaptation in abating
climate impacts





There is a big gap between adaptation needs and current
efforts
Adaptation to climate change is multidimensional (various
activities in various sectors)
Adaptive capacity of a society depends on the extent of
climate change and the available technical, financial,
institutional, etc. Resources
Adaptation has been treated mainly as a regional or
national issue bringinig about local benefits
It is a need to define the level of „internationality” of
adaptation in the post 2012 climate regime:
– Because of side-effects of certain actions and interactions
between sectors, countries and regions, adaptation should be
treated more complexly in the future
– „Adaptation could be seen as either a local isuue with int’l
benefits or as an int’l issue with local benefits
Current treatment of adaptation by the
UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

Achievements and remaining needs:
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
–
–
–
–
–
–
Adaptation funds created (SCCF, LDCF and AF),
Capacities adaptation and diminishing vulnerability increase (The Nairobi Work Programme),
Relevant information is constantly accumulating and routinely shared between the partners (e.
g. „Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and aadaptation
to climate change”), National Communications,
National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) have been launched,
National Adaptation Strategies developed and started to be implemented according to Art. 4 of
UNFCCC and Art. 10 of KP,
IPCC has created a robust scientific-analytical basis for adaptation (AR4), WHO and OECD
have contibuted to it (e.g. definition of terminology),
Best practices of adaptation are emerging and gaining acceptance (NWP),
Links with other international conventions and the Millennium Development Goals being
explored
Actions on adaptation are still very limited and sporadic
Available funds, especially in DCs are very limited
Adaptation is still confined to the agenda of the CCC (it is a „private business” of
experts)
Formal links with other conventions and MDGs are not established
Clear responsibilities and action plans for Parties are nor identified
Priorities of adaptationactions and countries needing help are not defined.
Current treatment of adaptation by the
UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

Short history of treatment of adaptation in the UNFCCC and the
Kyoto Protocol
Legal side:
– Formally adaptation has been key issue od the int~l dialogue since 1990
– UNFCCC contains several commitments regarding adaptation in its Art. 4
– COP 1 established in its decision 11/CP.1guidance and mechanism of funding
adaptation actions (three stage approach and GEF resources)
– The Kyoto Protocol reaffirms commitments but basically adaptation is not in the
mainstream,
– Adaptation has not received sufficient attention until 2001 when the
IPCC TAR was released
– After achievements of COP 7 and COP10, COP 11 established the „Nairobi work
programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation” (NWP)
Financial side:
– GEF managed funds for adaptation amount to ~200 millon USD as to 2007,
– GEF-established SPA („Piloting on Operational Approach of Adaptation”):
financing and co-financing together totalled ~ 100 millon USD
– LDCF provided support to cca. 50 projects (volume is ~ 50 million USD with CF)
– SCCF (designed Mainly for TT): cca. 10 projects: ~60 million USD financing with
~300 million usd co-financing,
– AF (designed to support concrete adaptation projects and programmes) in
starting phase : support 2% of CDM transactions (only particularly vulnerable
countries are eligible)
Existing Post-2012 adaptation plans

PEW Center :
– Adaptation controlled by the UNFCCC



National adaptation strategies
Reliable funding for high priority projects
Establishment of an international steering body
– Integration with (sustainable) development issues
– Introduction of a climate insurance system

European Climate Platform:





Expand Official Development Assistance (ODA) infrastructure to accomodate
adaptation
Create a globally centralised fund
Create Automomous Adptation Funds (locally focused)
Create insurance mechanism
Toward a Post-20012 Climate Change Regime
– Clarify the scope of adaptation
– Group countries according to their adaptive capacity
– Proposed measures: forward-thinking, avoiding, damage repair,
strengthening general capacity
Existing Post-2012 adaptation plans

International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD):
–
–
–
–
–

National adaptation strategies
Strenghtening institutions and governance
DDD (dev+diss+deploy) of new technologies
Information provision & awareness enhancement
Imlementation at local sectoral and regional level
BASIC Project Sao Paulo proposal (UNFCCC SBs):
– Create an Adaptation Committe of Experts
– 5 yr pilot phase of Adaptation Activities Implemented Cooperatively

First stage is a review process to be ended in 2012
– Assessing insurance and other risk management options
– Continue supporting AF from 2% CDM

Dialogue on Future Int’l Actions (CCAP)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Provision of appropriate scientific info for decision-makers
Clear definition of activities eligible as adaptation
Substantial funding mechanism using public and private sources
Rationalising overlapping activities of different UN agencies
Pilot phase adaptation projects
Framework to evaluate and prioritise AAs
Existing Post-2012 adaptation plans
(summary)
Climate change adaptation plans in other fora

International environmental agreements
– Convention on Biodiversity
Climate change adaptation plans in other fora

International environmental agreements
– Convention on Biodiversity (cont.)
Climate change adaptation plans in other
fora

International environmental agreements
– Convention on Desertification

International development agenda - UN
– Millennium Development Goals (MDGs):








Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
Goal
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
6:
7:
8:
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Achieve universal primary education
Promote gender equalityand empower women
Reduce child mortality
Improve maternal health
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
Ensure environmental sustainability
Develop a global partnership for development
– Table connecting MDG Targets (Sub-goals) and adaptation is shown in
next page
Climate change adaptation plans in other fora
Climate change adaptation plans in other fora

International development agenda - OECD
– Official Development Assistance (ODA)

Official development assistance (ODA) is a category of development aid
The term applies to aid from the members of Development Assistance
Committee (DAC) of the OECD to Part I List of Aid Recipients, that is to say,
developing countries.
Climate change adaptation plans in other fora

International development agenda - OECD
– Official Development Assistance (ODA)
Climate change adaptation plans in other fora

International development agenda - OECD
– Official Development Assistance (ODA)
Climate change adaptation plans in other fora

International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction - UN
– It is a follow–up of the International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction (IDNDR, 1990-1999)
– Four WGs exist in the frame of ISDR Inter-Agency Task Force on
Disaster Reduction
– One of them is relevant in weather and climate issues: WG on Climate
and Disasters
– Overlapping areas of ISDR and UNFCCC:



Identification, assesssment and monitoring of risks and vulnerability,
Community based disaster menegement and local coping
Natural resources and environmental management and risk reduction
– Adaptation activities relevant to disaster risk reduction are listed in the
Table below:
Climate change adaptation plans in other fora

International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction - UN
Summary of the present situation
The conclusion of the above analysis is that some aspects of
adaptation have been already being addressed, but the level of
efforts is not adequate. Accelerating climate change (see.
Foreword) adds urgency and yet another reason or incentive to
fully and realistically implement the existing agreements and
commitments.
The main open questions are:



Will politicians repeat the same statements and commitments in a new int’l
agreement? (ANSWERING THE NEW CHALLENGES)
What will happen with the on-going unfinished actions? Will there be an
unnatural termination and declaration of „new” actions jus because the
change of the period? (CONTINUITY AND INTEGRATION OF THE PAST
RESULTS)
What will be the UNFCCC strategy cocnerning the co-operation with other
international organizations involved? (CHOICE BETWEEN SEPARATE THE
RESPONSIBILTIES AND ACTIVITIES OR ACT IN SYNERGY AND COOPERATION WITH ALL INT’L ORGANIZATION PARTICIPANTS (RESPONSIBLE
STAKEHOLDERS))
Vision of the way ahead


The following ideas – that are intended to be a basis of
an international adaptation agree-ment for the post
2012 period - are based on an OECD study and thus can
represent some views that could be contoversial and also
aspects that could be important for other stakeholders
Key factors prevised
–
–
–
–
–
Scope of activities and the role of the UNFCCC,
Specific goals of adaptationto be addressed
Indicators/metrics to measure progress in adaptation
Reporting and review
Policies and measures (PAMs) to mobilise adaptation, funding
mechanisms
– Resposibilities for the Parties
(This kind of ordering the issues – implicitly – implies some kind
ofleadership or co-ordinating role of UNFCCC)
Scope of activities to be included in a post2012 agreement

Proposed scope of activities
– All parties report on vulnerability and adaptation under Nat’l
Communications
– All parties develop and implement national action plans on
adaptation (clear commitments)
– LDS and other agreed groups of countries develop NAPAs
(financial support from Annex 1 Parties through GEF)
– NA I parties benefit from capacity building activities
– All parties participate in info sharing
– Developing countries are assisted in adaptation through SCCF
and AF by A I parties
– All parties have access and benefit from sharing the
experiences of adaptation (agenda SBSTA and SBI)
– All parties benefit from coordination of UNFCCCC
The envisaged role of the UNFCCC

Role of the UNFCCC
– Catalyst of adaptation actions on national and int’l levels in
roles





Settng requirements of national adaptation strategies and policies
Strategic guidance on vulnerability and adaptation
Development of tools to assess risks and adaptation
Setting best practices and „standards”
Requesitng financial resources and estblishing rules of distribution
– Coordinates adaptation activities at int’l level



Establishment of formal links with CoB and CoD
Establishment of formal links with the MDG process and OECD’s
ODA
Coordination with other UN bodies (WMO, WHO, FAO) and other
interested int’l and regional organisations
– Forum for exchange of information
– Forum to address needs of countries vulnerable to climate
change
– Catalyst for R&D and technologhy transfer for adaptation
Specific goals of adaptation

Result-oriented goals and process-oriented goals
are listed in the following Table
Specific goals of adaptation

Result-oriented goals and process-oriented goals
are listed in the following Table
Measuring the progress of adaptation

Financial targets and metrics
– Finances should be targeted on






Specific adaptation provisions (national and sectoral)
Capacity bulding, outreach on adaptation
Research and development
Large scale climate-proof investments
Specific adaptation (location+hazard) projects
Development targets and indicators:










All LDCs and other low income countries receive adequate
assistance for the establishment of
early warning centres for each type of prevailing disasters
All countries develop disaster preparedness plans and
implementation strategies
% of new development/investment that follows specific
requirements on adaptation
% of population living on flood plains with a high risk of floods
% of population vulnerable to droughts
% of land lost to sea level rise every 5 years/every decade;
Share of preserved coastal wetlands
Percentage of population in each country living in hazard prone
areas
Availability of early warning services for each country
Measuring the progress of adaptation

Indicators of adaptive capacity
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day
Net enrolment ratio in primary education
Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds
Population with HIV/AIDs
Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria
Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area
Proportion of households with access to secure tenure
Proportion of total bilateral, sector-allocable ODA of OECD/DAC donors
to basic social
Services (basic education, primary health care, nutrition, safe water
and sanitation)
% of population in developing countries having access to microcrediting and other financial assistance (grants or loans) to implement
adaptation projects
% of national budget of the OECD DAC and upper-middle income
developing countries directed at R&D in adaptation technologies
%of national budget dedicated to vulnerability assesments
Measuring the progress of adaptation

Indicators of result-oriented adaptation actions:
– Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age.
– Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy
consumption.
– Share of preserved coastal wetlands.
– Human and economic loss due to hydro-meteorological disasters.
– % of land lost to sea level rise.
– Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water
source, urban and rural.
– Proportion of population living on flood planes

Indicators of process-oriented adaptation actions:
– Availability of national climate change impacts and vulnerability
assessments.
– Availability of national adaptation strategies with identified adaptation
priority actions.
– National reports on integrating adaptation into sectoral policies and
planning.
– Amount of GEF funding for community adaptation projects (DCs)

Sectoral policies indicators
Funding mechanisms

National governments (budget allocations, cost
recovery schemes)
– Domestic allocations by developed and developing
countries governments
– ODA: bilateral and multilateral

Private investments: banks, private sector
– Domestic private sector
– Foreign direct investment

Private foundations
– Domestic actions
– International assistance


GEF dedicated funds for adaptation in developing
countries
Micro financing (joint private and ODA efforts)
Funding mechanisms
Reporting and review

Parties should report on

Domestic actions to address vulnerability and adaptation, including
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
development and application of tools for assessing climate change impacts at the
national and sub-national levels,
development and application of tools for assessing national and sub-national
vulnerability to climate change,
development of scientific capacity for fostering understanding of climate change,
development and implementation of national adaptation strategies,
integration of adaptation into national and sectoral strategies and policies,
institutional arrangements to deal with adaptation,
investments into research and development of adaptation technologies and
techniques,
measures to address extreme events

ODA by Annex I countries directed at adaptation activities (that fall in the scope of
agreedactions, including capacity building),

Implementation of adaptation projects and creation of enabling conditions for the
implementation of such projects (by non Annex I countries), and

Transfer of adaptation technologies.
Responsibilities of the Parties

Obligations of all Parties
In addition to their obligations pursuant to article 4 of the
Convention, all Parties undertake to:
(a) give due priority to adaptation to climate change, and
allocate adequate resources in accordance with their
circumstances and capabilities;
(b) establish strategies and priorities, within the framework of
sustainable development plans and/or policies, to address
adaptation;
(c) address the underlying causes of vulnerability and pay
special attention to the socio- economic factors contributing
to vulnerability;
(d) promote awareness and facilitate the participation of local
populations, particularly women and youth, with the
support of non-governmental organizations, in adaptation
efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change; and
(e) provide an enabling environment by strengthening, as
appropriate, relevant existing legislation and, where they
do not exist, enacting new laws and establishing long-term
policies and action programmes.
Responsibilities of the Parties

Obligations of developed country Parties
In addition to their obligations pursuant to article 4 of the
Convention, developed country Parties undertake to:
(a) actively support, as agreed, individually or jointly, the efforts of
affected developing country Parties, particularly those in Africa,
and the least developed countries, to adapt to climate change and
mitigate the effects of climate change impacts;
(b) provide substantial financial resources and other forms of support
to assist affected developing country Parties, and especially
particularly vulnerable countries, effectively to develop and
implement their own long-term plans and strategies on
adaptation;
(c) promote the mobilization of new and additional funding;
(d) encourage the mobilization of funding from the private sector and
other non-governmental sources; and
(e) promote and facilitate access by affected country Parties,
particularly affected developing countryParties, to appropriate
technology, knowledge and know-how.

Priority for particularly vulnerable
countries
Conclusions
The existing legal framework for adaptation
under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol
allows for comprehensive action on adap-tation.
Since 1992 many significant achievements in
addressing vulnerability and adaptation have
been made. However, many gaps remain,
especially in implementation of adaptation
measures. The main gaps can be summarised as
the following:
 Actions on adaptation are still very limited and sporadic.
 Adaptation is still largely confined to the limited agenda
of the climate change community.
 Formal links with other conventions, sustainable
development agenda and MDGs are not established.
 Clear responsibilities regarding adaptation and action
plans for Parties are not defined. There is no system in
place to measure progress on adaptation.
 A clear framework for staged and planned adaptation
actions (including an agreed scope of activities) does not
yet exist.
Conclusions







A new agreement on adaptation would include
the following elements:
i. Scope of adaptation-relevant activities;
ii. Goals of adaptation;
iii. Targets and indicators/metrics for measuring
progress;
iv. Reporting and review;
v. Expanded funding mechanisms (including
national policy requirements that would mobilise
funding into adaptation);
vi. Responsibilities of the Parties.
vii. Cooperation with other relevant international
agreements and organisations.
Used OECD Documents on Longterm Issues
THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION!
For whom enough is too little nothing is ever enough.