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CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION
The Hague, Netherlands (January 20, 2009)
PERSPECTIVE OF THE BIG CITIES IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTRIES
Adam O. Kimbisa
Mayor of the City
Dar es Salaam City Council
P.O. Box 9084
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Tel: +255 22 2121716
Fax: +255 22 2120003
Email: [email protected]
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Structure of the Presentation

Human Development & Climate Change

The Science of Climate Change

Recent and Future Climate Trends in
Southern Countries

Impacts of Climate Change

Mitigation and Adaptation Measures
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Human Development and Climate Change

Human Development has brought about Climate Change
since the European Industrial Revolution in 1860, through
various social and economic activities which cause global
warming

The scientific evidence indicates that Climate Change is
now negatively affecting Human Development and presents
very serious global risks that demand an urgent global
response

Migration of people and animals is one of the potential
catastrophic impacts of climate change that poses severe
economic, social, and ecosystem imbalances if no timely
action is taken
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The Science of Climate Change

What is Global Warming?

The observation that the atmosphere near the earth’s
surface is warming beyond its tolerance levels, i.e.
more and more heat trapping gases are ejected into
the atmosphere is called Global Warming

This raises the average global temperature
thereby causing climate change

Without the natural greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, the average temperature of the
earth would be 30°Celsius lower
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The Science of Climate Change.. cont’d
Greenhouse gases effect
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Recent & Future Climate Trends in Southern Countries


Most Southern countries including Tanzania, are ones of
the most vulnerable countries to Climate Change though
their contribution to the cause is minimum, mainly through;

Deforestation – burning and cutting of trees and bushes

Overgrazing – random and lack of livestock numbers control

Mining activities – disorganized and lack of proper technology

Air pollution – industries & increased use of second hand vehicles

Waste treatment – poor collection and disposal mechanisms
Unfortunately, the rich countries are burying these poor
countries in red tape in denying them access to Adaptation
Funds to help adjusting to Climate Change impacts
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Recent Climate Trends in Tanzania




1974
2007
Warmer temperatures have caused even melting of ice at the peak
of Mt. Kilimanjaro
Some areas receiving less, others same rainfall
Altered and inconsistent rainy seasons
More climatic extremes – droughts, floods
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Future Climate Trends in Southern Countries




Weather simulations suggest most Southern countries
including Tanzania will generally become drier
Long-term weather forecasts suggest most areas will
see increases in variability of rainfall - intense storms,
droughts and floods - due to GHG effect
The resulting warmer temperatures will lead into
increased water use by vegetation, which won’t be
available due to drought - hence increased
desertification
Displacement and Migration of people in their own
countries or to other countries leading to internal unrest,
environmental degradation and poverty due to scramble
for the limited basic resources and services such as
land, water, food, medicals, etc.
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Impacts of Climate Change
Southern Countries/Tanzania Experience

Migration of people from rural areas to urban areas



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for ecological reasons – drought in upcountry areas
for economical reasons – seeking alternative means of survival
Overwhelming of City authority to carry the influx
Migration of livestock in search of greener pastures
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Impacts of Climate Change ..cont’d
Southern Countries/Tanzania Experience

Rising sea levels leading to submergence of some
islands, e.g. Maziwe Island in Pangani district

Migration and Disruption of wildlife & marine ecosystems
leading to extinction of other species as a result of
prolonged droughts, e.g. hippos, fish.
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Impacts of Climate Change ..cont’d
Southern Countries/Tanzania Experience
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

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Increased crop and livestock pests and diseases
Land degradation due to livestock and wildlife migration
concentrations in search for food and water
Altered vegetation on highlands and easy spread of
uncontrolled fires due dry vegetation
Salt water intrusion and stronger storms/waves leading
to erosion of coastal areas
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Impacts of Climate Change ..cont’d
Southern Countries/Tanzania Experience


Frequent Floods

Displacement of people and loss of properties

Natural drainage systems in the city of Dar es Salaam
overwhelmed, need well designed drainage system

Curtailing many economic activities and lowered Tanzania’s GDP
growth from 7% to 6% in 2006
Reduced water supply

Rationing of water for households/industrial needs due to scarcity
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Impacts of Climate Change
..cont’d
Southern Countries/Tanzania Experience

Frequent and prolonged droughts leading to;

Lowest water level and temporary shut down of the major
dams in the past few years, which are main source of
electric power in the country
 Hydro-electric power crises, e.g. the 2006/2007 power
blackout in Tanzania
 Decline in agricultural crop yields
 Reduced income and increased poverty levels

Increase of Climate-related diseases, e.g. Malaria

With annual incidence rate of 400-500 per every 1000
people

Occurrence in areas like Lushoto & Njombe where it
wasn’t common before
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Impacts of Climate Change
..cont’d
Southern Countries/Tanzania Experience

Destruction of infrastructure
 e.g. the 2006 floods in most parts of Tanzania which
devastated infrastructure including tarmac roads,
railway lines & bridges

Steady increase in temperature
 due to greenhouse gas emissions
 0.2 degrees Celsius increase recorded in Tanzania for
the past 30 years

Forced use of thermal-electric power sources

leading to environmental pollution and budgets
disruption
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Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

Tackling Climate Change and the resulting
Migration impacts require action on two fronts:
 First, Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions
Developed & Developing countries programs cooperation
 Reduction of CO2 emission


Shift to bio-energy

Carbon trading - absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere
 Second,
Adaptation
Most vulnerable developing nations need assistance in
improving capacity to adapt and build defence mechanisms
 Integration of adaptation measures into all aspects of policy
development and provisions for Climate uncertainties

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Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ..cont’d
Which Options do we have to take against Global Warming? - Not much choice!
A – Business as usual
Estimates of future average
global temperature rise due
to the Greenhouse Effect
B – Assumes a shift to
lower-carbon fuels
C – Assumes a shift
towards renewable
energy resources
D – Assumes a shift
towards renewable
energy resources and
nuclear energy
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Mitigation and Adaptation Measures
Southern Countries / Tanzania Approach

Cultivating drought-resistant crops in arid and semi-arid
areas to respond to possible food shortages due to
negative climate changes, and so minimize Migration of
people from the areas

Shallow and deep wells drilling programs and projects to
respond to the changing hydrological regimes –
Migration in search for water reduced

Construction of dams for human and livestock water
supply to ensure water availability and sustainability as
well as support to sustainable fisheries and alternative
livelihood – Migration of pastoralists, fishermen, irrigation
farmers reduced
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Mitigation and Adaptation Measures
Southern Countries/Tanzania Approach ..cont’d

Construction of ocean currents protection walls and
relocation of some vulnerable communities along sea
shores and low-lying areas – to prevent potential
migrations during rising sea levels and flood disasters

The use of natural gas for electricity production to
replace thermal electric generation and hydroelectricity
which is climate change dependent – to guarantee and
ensure sustainability of peoples’ economic activities

Preparation to establish Bus Rapid Transit System in the
city of Dar es Salaam to minimize congestion and
subsequent air pollution from vehicles

Improving counter-measures against devastating events
on livelihoods e.g. early warning systems, evacuation,
etc.
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Mitigation and Adaptation Measures
Already operational in Dar es Salaam

Use of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to
reduce methane equivalent in air & as source of
energy/power generation, e.g. the Mtoni CDM
project under Dar es Salaam City Council
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Waste to Energy project: Technical closure of the
former Mtoni Dumpsite and development into a CDM
project
The dump gas is currently being flared
Part of the gas will be utilized to generate electricity
that will be connected to the national grid
Revenue generating project to Dar es Salaam City
Council to finance other poverty alleviation efforts to
the city citizens
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Mitigation and Adaptation Measures
Already operational in Dar es Salaam ..cont’d
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Mitigation and Adaptation Measures
Under study in Dar es Salaam

High grade composting
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Diversion of organic waste from landfill (methane
reduction)
New market opportunity for organic compost as
alternative to chemical fertilizers whose cost is on the
increase
Benefits also include: job creation, revenue from sale
of compost and CDM, organic soil replenishment
Issues to consider: land, segregating market waste,
collection and transportation and developing a Project
Design Document for CDM
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Proposed Adaptation Measures
Developed & Developing Countries cooperation

QUICK WINS for Greenhouse Gases emission reductions
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Energy Efficiency

Renewable Energy Technologies

Landfill gas management & composting
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Proposed Adaptation Measures
Developed & Developing Countries cooperation ..cont’d

Environmental-friendly technology research and
development

Forums for exchange of experience and knowledge
among cities with similar characteristics and
challenges, e.g. the Dar-Dakar-Durban partnership
under the PLUSNetwork International

Support to poor countries along the coast in beaches
protection e.g. planting of mangrove trees to diffuse
tropical-storm waves

Provide special attention & additional financial support
to poor countries in their adaptation initiative out of
existing aid commitments
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Proposed Adaptation Measures
Developed & Developing Countries cooperation ..cont’d

Cities administrations need to plan and budget around
climate uncertainty. Improve basic infrastructure such as
hospitals, water reservoirs, and roads, must be climateproofed. All these require more funding.

The International Community needs to give impetus to
Climate talks with the World’s top greenhouse gases
emitter nations to get them more involved in combating
global warming by reducing their emissions and
contributing to Adaptation Funds significantly.

Need to consider Climate Migration as “forced” migration
in the International Legal Human Rights Framework for
nations to reduce deterrent measures to the migrants,
instead apply positive measures and necessary
humanitarian aids where possible.
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End of Presentation
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