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Risk and Environment Paul Hayden MA, MSc, MIFireE Chief Officer / Chief Executive Hereford & Worcester Fire and Rescue Service Climate Change: Risk Impact Practical Impacts “The atmosphere isn’t warming, and if it is, then its down to natural variations; and even if its not down to natural variations, then the amount of warming is insignificant; and if it becomes significant, then the benefits will outweigh the problems, and even if they don’t, technology will come to the rescue; and even if it doesn't, we shouldn’t risk wrecking the economy because some of the science is uncertain!” 3 Definitions of key terms 5 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE [IPCC] Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation New critical threshold New coping range Climate variable Vulnerability Critical threshold Coping range Past Present Lag Decision to adapt Future Implementation of adaptation Planning time horizon Slide courtesy of UKCIP Time What is Climate Change Adaptation? Adaptation measures to moderate and cope with climate change impacts not a one-off activity, but a continuous and incremental set of activities. Physical actions e.g: raising the height of sea defences Increasing ventilation / cooling in buildings Building ‘Adaptive Capacity’ e.g: Raising awareness of impacts Tools / context etc for decision makers Why do we need Adaptation? Adaptation Climate change is already happening Stopping GHGs today will not prevent it CC over next 30-50 yrs due to historic emissions We need to: Adaptation Build ‘adaptive capacity’ Identify priorities for adaptation Identify actions that will improve the resilience of: Development, Services, Infrastructure, Communities, The Economy, the ‘Natural’ environment FRS Practical Impacts 10 FRS must act to reduce the impact of its activities on the Environment. However, regardless of any action we take, our organisations and services will be impacted by climate change in at least 5 key areas over the next 50 years; 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. High Summer Temperatures Floods Drought Storms Social Impact - Migration High Summer Temperatures Drought Storm Flood Migration CFOA Partnerships • • • • • • • • • 21 FRS / EA Strategic Partnership -Strategic Group, Tactical Group, Environmental Protection, flooding & PPS 25 CFOA Inland Water Strategic & Tactical Group UK SAR Strategic Group & Tactical Group Defra Flood Rescue Capabilities Program Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Extreme Weather Events, SME’s / Householder adaptation Various University Research Projects EU Flood Command EU Flood Ex 2009 US FEMA & DHS Major Flood Programs If you are Interested in any of the above, please get in touch!