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Climate Change and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies in the Midwestern U.S. Rebecca A. Pfeifer Ag Consultant, New Palestine, IN Otto Doering Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University Jane Southworth and J.C. Randolph School of Public and Environmental Affairs Indiana University Acknowledgments This research was funded by grant number R 824996-01 from the Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program of the U.S.E.P.A. The HadCM2 data was provided by the Climate Impacts LINK Project (DETR Contract EPG 1/1/68) on behalf of the Hadley Center and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The VEMAP data was obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado. Climate Change and YOU! Study region Climate change modeled Impact on Farm-Level Decisions planting date variety crop mix Risk Assessments Conclusions & suggestions for further research Naming Conventions V = VEMAP, current conditions S = Sulfate, moderate climate change G = greenhouse gases, more extreme change 0.5X = half current climate variability 1.0X = current climate variability 2.0X = twice current climate variability 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Month of the Year Change in Precip. (mm) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Ja n Fe b M ar Ap M r ay Ju n Ju Au l g Se p O ct N ov D ec Temperature (C) Eastern Wisconsin 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Ju l Au g Se p O ct No v De c Change in Precip. (mm) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Ja n Fe b M ar Ap r M ay Ju n Temperature (C) Southern Illinois Month of the Year Change in Corn Yields under Climate Scenarios (a) (b) (c) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ (f) (e) (d) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ N $ $ $ $ $ $ Change in Soybean Yields under Climate Scenarios (a ) (b ) (c) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ (f) (e ) (d) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ N $ $ $ $ $ $ Change in Winter Wheat Yields under Climate Scenarios (a) (b) (c) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ (f) (e) (d) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ N $ $ $ $ $ $ Yield (% current max) Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios Eastern Wisconsin 120 80 40 0 70 100 130 160 190 220 Yield (% current max) Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios Southern Illinois 120 80 40 0 70 100 130 160 Day of Year 190 220 Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios Yield (% current max) Eastern Wisconsin 150 100 50 0 70 100 130 160 190 220 Yield (% current max) Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios Southern Illinois 120 80 40 0 70 100 130 160 Day of Year 190 220 Comparison of Yield Response Curves Yield Potential for better adapted genotype Planting date (day of year) VEM AP SUL GHG Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Current Climate 200 150 60% 100 40% Southern Central Sites C-S C-W/S Northern sites Returns SC MI MI TH SW WI E WI NW OH 0 EC IN 0% E IL 50 SW IN 20% S IL Crop Mix 80% Returns ($/acre) 100% 100% 60% 40% Southern Central Sites C-S C-W/S Northern sites S-S Returns SC MI MI TH SW WI E WI NW OH EC IN E IL 0% SW IN 20% S IL Crop Mix 80% 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Returns ($/acre) Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Sulfate Scenario 50 0% 0 Southern Central Sites C-S C-W/S Northern sites S-S Returns Returns ($/acre) 20% SC MI 100 MI TH 40% SW WI 150 E WI 60% NW OH 200 EC IN 80% E IL 250 SW IN 100% S IL Crop Mix Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Greenhouse Gases Scenario Returns to Resources by Site and Scenario 350 Returns ($/acre) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G S IL SW IN Southern Sites E IL EC IN Central Sites NW OH E WI SW WI M I TH SC M I Northern sites Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Southern Illinois 25000 Yield (kg/ha) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 (a) Corn Vemap 0.5S 1.0S 2.0S 0.5G 1.0G 2.0G Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Eastern Wisconsin Yield (kg/ha) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Vemap (a) Corn 0.5S 1.0S 2.0S 0.5G 1.0G 2.0G Risk and Distribution of Corn Yields by Climate Variability Southern Illinois 1 1 0.8 0.8 Probability Probability Eastern Wisconsin 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.5 1 2 GHG Variability 0.5 1 2 GHG Variability Conclusions Climate change will impact midwestern grain farmers, input suppliers, ag financial institutions Impacts will vary significantly within region, especially north to south Adaptation strategies include equipment improvements (working rates), later planting dates, varieties better suited to mid-season heat and climate variability, crop mix adjustments, changes in operation financing Further research Where are the better-suited varieties? Will demand for better adapted crops make them worthwhile to grow? As time passes, models will improve – update research… Will ag policy keep pace with changes to the farming environment