Download Decision support system for risk reduction in agriculture

: A service of the
Southeast Climate Consortium
C. Fraisse, D. Zierden, and J. Paz
Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop
Chapel Hill, NC March 4-7 2008
History: First steps towards becoming providers
of climate forecast information
Our expertise:
• Extensive research and
knowledge of ENSO variability in
the Southeast
• Weather-driven crop modeling
(DSSAT)
• Strong engagement and
assessment of user needs
User needs - Climate forecast information
and decision support tools that are:
• Local
• Timely
• Come from a trusted source
• Grounded in physical processes
• Framed in historic context
Bringing it all together partnership with USDA
Risk Management
Agency
First steps in 2004

First attempt to create a
web site in 2004, this
initial version was used to
discuss content and
organization of the site.

Discussions in 2004 were
dominated by database
design, operational
systems, and web site
layout/contents
First interactions with Extension
Services in the region

First versions of
Decision Support
Tools were
developed in
Visual Basic for
presentation to
Extension Agents
before
implementation in
the web.
Our main concern was to have something to show when talking to
Extension faculty and farmers.
Interactions with Stakeholders – 2004/2005
Climate-based
Management
options
Farmers
County
Extension
Interaction
(Participation)
Web-based
DSS
Stand alone
decision-aid
tools
Needs for
Specific
Commodities
Crop Models
Climate-based
tools
Climate
Forecast
First Online Version


AgClimate goes
online during the
last quarter of
2004
Most of 2005
was spend
developing
content for the
system: decision
support tools
and adaptation
strategies
Centerpieces: Climate tool and
Crop yield tool
AgClimate 2007

Hosting, maintenance,
and development
responsibilities have
been transferred to
University of Florida
Extension.

Concerns in 2007 are
more related to
operational aspects
and overall
improvement of the
system in terms of
easiness to use,
content, and coverage
of commodities.
Climate and Agricultural Outlooks

Outlooks are
delivered every 1-2
months and have
been very
successful with
stakeholders
Climate and Agricultural Outlooks

Agricultural outlooks
are written with input
from Extension
specialists and often
contain
management
options.
AgClimate Tools
Recent Developments - Climate

Cooling and
heating degree
days forecast
based on ENSO
phase for all
counties in
Alabama,
Florida, and
Georgia
Recent Developments - Climate

Probabilities for
extreme low
and high
temperatures,
as requested by
producers.
Min/max
average
temperatures
are not as
useful as
extreme values.
Recent Developments – Crop Yield


Improved (and
simplified) crop
yield risk tool
incorporates
suggestions
received from
Extension
faculty during
hands-on
workshops.
Peanut, Potato,
and Tomato
Better chances of high
yield if planted earlier
during La Nina years
Recent Developments - Irrigation Tool
Net Returns ($/ac) for different planting dates and management (peanuts)
Our first attempt to have more information in terms of economic impacts, need to expand!
Plans for 2008




Improve
navigation
Redesign
pages that are
too busy or
difficult to read
Improve help
sections for the
tools
New layout
planned for July
2008
Outlooks and general Information

Improve our operational capabilities to deliver
outlooks on time, difficult task in a academic
environment but should improve under
“Extension” supervision

Add a “drought” section is being discussed, we
see the need for more specific information
based on requests from stakeholders during the
2007 drought
Yield Risk Forecasting (based on crop
models and ENSO climatology)

New crops will be added:



Cotton - 2008
Corn - 2008
Pasture (Bermuda and Bahia grasses) - 2009
In-season Updates

Stakeholders have asked for in-season updates
of specific climate-derived variables such as
“growing degree days” and “chill hours
accumulation”

Currently this information is offered by state
weather networks and partnerships established
with networks in Florida and Georgia will allow
AgClimate to provide this service
In-season Updates: Chill Accumulation

Chill Hours 45˚F
La Nina
500
2007-08
All Years Average
400
300
200

100
31
)
115
N
)
ov
(1
630
D
)
ec
(1
-1
D
5)
ec
(1
631
)
Ja
n(
11
Ja
5)
n(
16
-3
1)
Fe
b(
115
Fe
)
b(
16
-2
8)
M
ar
(1
-1
M
5)
ar
(1
631
)
Ap
r(1
-1
Ap
5
r(1 )
630
)
ov
(
N
(1
6-
O
ct
O
ct
(1
-1
5)
0
2007/08 Hillsborough County, FL
Chilling is a measure of
the cool conditions that
occur during the winter
and promote rest and
satisfaction of dormancy
of crops
For producers, tracking
accumulation is as
important as forecasting,
in order to decide about
spraying
Climate Change Fact Sheets


Extension agents have been asking for information and
educational materials about climate change
Fact sheets are being produced covering the following
topics:




Basics of Climate Change
Potential impacts on the agricultural industry
Adaptation and mitigation strategies
Additional concerns include sea level rise, carbon
sequestration and trading mechanisms, and invasive
species
Thank You!
A Service of the Southeast Climate Consortium