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Climate Change
and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies
in the Midwestern U.S.
Rebecca A. Pfeifer
Ag Consultant, New Palestine, IN
Otto Doering
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University
Jane Southworth and J.C. Randolph
School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Indiana University
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by grant number
R 824996-01 from the Science to Achieve
Results (STAR) Program of the U.S.E.P.A.
The HadCM2 data was provided by the
Climate Impacts LINK Project (DETR
Contract EPG 1/1/68) on behalf of the
Hadley Center and the United Kingdom
Meteorological Office.
The VEMAP data was obtained from the
National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR), Boulder, Colorado.
Climate Change and YOU!
Study region
Climate change modeled
Impact on Farm-Level Decisions
planting date
variety
crop mix
Risk Assessments
Conclusions & suggestions
for further research
Naming Conventions
V
= VEMAP, current conditions
S = Sulfate, moderate climate change
G = greenhouse gases, more extreme change
0.5X = half current climate variability
1.0X = current climate variability
2.0X = twice current climate variability
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Month of the Year
Change in Precip.
(mm)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
M r
ay
Ju
n
Ju
Au l
g
Se
p
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Temperature (C)
Eastern Wisconsin
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
p
O
ct
No
v
De
c
Change in Precip.
(mm)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
r
M
ay
Ju
n
Temperature (C)
Southern Illinois
Month of the Year
Change in Corn Yields under Climate Scenarios
(a)
(b)
(c)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
(f)
(e)
(d)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
N
$
$
$
$
$
$
Change in Soybean Yields under Climate Scenarios
(a )
(b )
(c)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
(f)
(e )
(d)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
N
$
$
$
$
$
$
Change in Winter Wheat Yields
under Climate Scenarios
(a)
(b)
(c)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
(f)
(e)
(d)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
N
$
$
$
$
$
$
Yield (% current max)
Corn Yields by Planting Date
under Climate Scenarios
Eastern Wisconsin
120
80
40
0
70
100
130
160
190
220
Yield (% current max)
Corn Yields by Planting Date
under Climate Scenarios
Southern Illinois
120
80
40
0
70
100
130
160
Day of Year
190
220
Soybean Yields by Planting Date
under Climate Scenarios
Yield (%
current max)
Eastern Wisconsin
150
100
50
0
70
100
130
160
190
220
Yield (%
current max)
Soybean Yields by Planting Date
under Climate Scenarios
Southern Illinois
120
80
40
0
70
100
130
160
Day of Year
190
220
Comparison of Yield Response Curves
Yield
Potential for
better adapted
genotype
Planting date (day of year)
VEM AP
SUL
GHG
Crop Mix and Returns to Resources
under Current Climate
200
150
60%
100
40%
Southern
Central Sites
C-S
C-W/S
Northern sites
Returns
SC MI
MI TH
SW WI
E WI
NW OH
0
EC IN
0%
E IL
50
SW IN
20%
S IL
Crop Mix
80%
Returns ($/acre)
100%
100%
60%
40%
Southern
Central Sites
C-S
C-W/S
Northern sites
S-S
Returns
SC MI
MI TH
SW WI
E WI
NW OH
EC IN
E IL
0%
SW IN
20%
S IL
Crop Mix
80%
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Returns ($/acre)
Crop Mix and Returns to Resources
under Sulfate Scenario
50
0%
0
Southern
Central Sites
C-S
C-W/S
Northern sites
S-S
Returns
Returns ($/acre)
20%
SC
MI
100
MI
TH
40%
SW
WI
150
E WI
60%
NW
OH
200
EC
IN
80%
E IL
250
SW
IN
100%
S IL
Crop Mix
Crop Mix and Returns to Resources
under Greenhouse Gases Scenario
Returns to Resources by Site and Scenario
350
Returns ($/acre)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G
S IL
SW IN
Southern Sites
E IL
EC IN
Central Sites
NW
OH
E WI SW WI M I TH SC M I
Northern sites
Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Southern Illinois
25000
Yield (kg/ha)
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
(a) Corn
Vemap
0.5S
1.0S
2.0S
0.5G
1.0G
2.0G
Corn Yield Variability by Scenario
at Eastern Wisconsin
Yield (kg/ha)
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Vemap
(a) Corn
0.5S
1.0S
2.0S
0.5G
1.0G
2.0G
Risk and Distribution of Corn Yields
by Climate Variability
Southern Illinois
1
1
0.8
0.8
Probability
Probability
Eastern Wisconsin
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.5
1
2
GHG Variability
0.5
1
2
GHG Variability
Conclusions
Climate change will impact midwestern grain
farmers, input suppliers, ag financial institutions
Impacts will vary significantly within region,
especially north to south
Adaptation strategies include equipment
improvements (working rates), later planting
dates, varieties better suited to mid-season heat
and climate variability, crop mix adjustments,
changes in operation financing
Further research
Where are the better-suited varieties?
Will demand for better adapted crops make
them worthwhile to grow?
As time passes, models will improve – update
research…
Will ag policy keep pace with changes to the
farming environment