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Transcript
Modelling System for Agricultural
Impacts of Climate Change
MOSAICC: Methodology and
software overview
Francois Delobel
Content
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Objectives
System overview
Models
Interface
Current status
1. Objectives
• MOSAICC: Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts
of Climate Change
• Integrated package of models and utilities to assess
climate change impact on agriculture at national
level
• Unique software architecture allowing various
experts to collaborate remotely
• End: education, capacity building and decision
support tool
2. System overview
• The system is installed on a server. Access is
given through web interfaces
• 1 common spatial database
• If not open source, all models are free of
charge
2. System overview
• 4 disciplines corresponding to 4 user profiles:
– climate: processing climate data for the models
– hydrology: estimation of future water resources
– crops: production of crop yield projections
– economy: assessment of changing crop yields on
the national economy
2. System overview
IPCC GCM
Low resolution
projections
Server
Climate
Historical
weather
data
Modellers
interface
Downscaled
climate
projections
Historical
crop yield
statistics
Historical
water use
statistics
Historical
discharge
data
Crop
characteristics
Crops
Hydrology
Yield projections
Water resources
projections
Soil data
Technological
progress
scenarios
Current state
of economy
Economy
Macroeconomic
scenarios
Economic
impacts
Soil and
Land use
data
Dam
characteristics
End-user
interface
3. Models
•
•
•
•
•
SD portal: statistical downscaling for climate data
AQUACROP: crop model
WABAL: crop specific water balance model
STREAM: hydrological model
CGE: computable general equilibrium model
(economics)
• Other utilities: interpolation (kriging, AURELHY),
growing season beginning and length calculation
routines, spatial data management tools etc.
4. Example of interface
5. Current status
• After about a year and a half of development,
MOSAICC v. Alpha will be installed in Moroccan
institutions (under negotiation)
• This pilot experience comprises:
–
–
–
–
server and software installation
constitution of a working group of national experts
trainings
tests of the models and conduction of an impact study at
national level
Thank you for your attention
• Info:
– www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc
– [email protected]
• Partners:
Mauro Evangelisti
Servizi Informatici
Numerical Ecology of
Aquatic Systems
AgroMetShell