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Agricultural Outlook Forum
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Presented: February 23-24, 2012
Adapting to Increasing Variability:
Climate Change and Agriculture
Jerry Hatfield
Adapting to Increasing Variability
CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION
Longer season cultivars
 Supply irrigation water
 Drain soil to reduce water logging
 Larger planting equipment
 Modify housing for animals
 Provide alternative water sources for animals
 Perennial crops-modify pruning, fruit load
 Specialty crops- modify environment to protect
against extremes (temperature, wind)

US CORN PRODUCTION
SOUTH DAKOTA CROP DISTRIBUTION
6e+6
South Dakota Crop Area Harvested
Wheat
Corn
Soybean
Sunflower
5e+6
Area (Acres)
4e+6
3e+6
2e+6
1e+6
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
Year
1960
1980
2000
2020
IMPROVED AGRONOMIC SYSTEMS
6.0
Iowa Maize Production
6
Area (ha x 10 )
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
1940
Planted Area
Harvested Area
1960
1980
Year
2000
2020
SOIL EROSION
SPRING PRECIPITATION (AMES)
22
Precipitation (inches)
20
Ames Spring Precipitation
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Spring Precip (March-May)
Mean Spring Precip
2
0
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
Year
1980
2000
2020
INCREASED SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE
Des Moines Precipitation
Days per Year with More than 1.25 inches
12
10
2010 through Sept 27
Years having more than 8
days
7
2
8
6
4
2
3.7
0
1880
41% Increase
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
5.2
2000
2020
CONSERVATION TILLAGE
IOWA COUNTY YIELDS
14000
14000
Story County
Cass County
12000
Yield (kg ha )
10000
-1
10000
-1
Yield (kg ha )
12000
8000
6000
8000
6000
4000
4000
2000
0
1940
1960
1980
2000
Observed Corn Yield
Maximum Corn Yield
2000
Observed Corn Yields
Maximum Corn Yields
0
1940
2020
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year
Year
14000
14000
Washington County
12000
10000
10000
-1
Yield (kg ha )
-1
Yield (kg ha )
12000
8000
6000
4000
2000
1950
Observed Corn Yields
Maximum Corn Yields
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
8000
6000
4000
2000
2020
0
1940
Observed Corn Yield
Maximum Corn Yield
1960
1980
Year
2000
2020
Fraction Deviation from Potential Yield
SOYBEAN YIELD DEVIATIONS
0.6
Kentucky Soybean Yield
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
2020
VARIATION IN YIELDS
30
Iowa County Maize Yields
Frequency
25
20
Cass County
Floyd County
Story County
Washington County
15
10
5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Fraction of Potential Maize Yield
The majority of the yield losses due to the weather are short-term stresses
IRRIGATION
WATER REQUIREMENTS
28000
26000
Corn Water Use Efficiency
-1
Yield (kg ha )
24000
22000
20000
Water Deficit
need 120 mm
more water to
grow 300 bu
corn
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
200
300
400
500
600
Water Use (mm)
700
800
900
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Role of proper soil management has been
overlooked as a reservoir of water to meet plant
needs
 Adaptive strategies will have to ensure that soil
is a foundational piece of the process

TEMPERATURE RESPONSE IN ANIMALS
PRACTICES
Changes in crop rotations
 Changes in water management (irrigation and
drainage)
 Changes in fertilizer management
 Changes in crop management
 Changes in animal management
 Ultimately we are going to have to quantify
G x E x M interactions to develop effective adaptive
strategies

AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION
Agriculture has adapted to climate change and
will continue to adapt
 Practices will have to cope with larger extremes
in temperature and precipitation
