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Agricultural Outlook Forum U.S. Department of Agriculture Presented: February 23-24, 2012 Adapting to Increasing Variability: Climate Change and Agriculture Jerry Hatfield Adapting to Increasing Variability CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION Longer season cultivars Supply irrigation water Drain soil to reduce water logging Larger planting equipment Modify housing for animals Provide alternative water sources for animals Perennial crops-modify pruning, fruit load Specialty crops- modify environment to protect against extremes (temperature, wind) US CORN PRODUCTION SOUTH DAKOTA CROP DISTRIBUTION 6e+6 South Dakota Crop Area Harvested Wheat Corn Soybean Sunflower 5e+6 Area (Acres) 4e+6 3e+6 2e+6 1e+6 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000 2020 IMPROVED AGRONOMIC SYSTEMS 6.0 Iowa Maize Production 6 Area (ha x 10 ) 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 1940 Planted Area Harvested Area 1960 1980 Year 2000 2020 SOIL EROSION SPRING PRECIPITATION (AMES) 22 Precipitation (inches) 20 Ames Spring Precipitation 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Spring Precip (March-May) Mean Spring Precip 2 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 Year 1980 2000 2020 INCREASED SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE Des Moines Precipitation Days per Year with More than 1.25 inches 12 10 2010 through Sept 27 Years having more than 8 days 7 2 8 6 4 2 3.7 0 1880 41% Increase 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 5.2 2000 2020 CONSERVATION TILLAGE IOWA COUNTY YIELDS 14000 14000 Story County Cass County 12000 Yield (kg ha ) 10000 -1 10000 -1 Yield (kg ha ) 12000 8000 6000 8000 6000 4000 4000 2000 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 Observed Corn Yield Maximum Corn Yield 2000 Observed Corn Yields Maximum Corn Yields 0 1940 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Year 14000 14000 Washington County 12000 10000 10000 -1 Yield (kg ha ) -1 Yield (kg ha ) 12000 8000 6000 4000 2000 1950 Observed Corn Yields Maximum Corn Yields 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 8000 6000 4000 2000 2020 0 1940 Observed Corn Yield Maximum Corn Yield 1960 1980 Year 2000 2020 Fraction Deviation from Potential Yield SOYBEAN YIELD DEVIATIONS 0.6 Kentucky Soybean Yield 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 2020 VARIATION IN YIELDS 30 Iowa County Maize Yields Frequency 25 20 Cass County Floyd County Story County Washington County 15 10 5 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Fraction of Potential Maize Yield The majority of the yield losses due to the weather are short-term stresses IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS 28000 26000 Corn Water Use Efficiency -1 Yield (kg ha ) 24000 22000 20000 Water Deficit need 120 mm more water to grow 300 bu corn 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 200 300 400 500 600 Water Use (mm) 700 800 900 ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Role of proper soil management has been overlooked as a reservoir of water to meet plant needs Adaptive strategies will have to ensure that soil is a foundational piece of the process TEMPERATURE RESPONSE IN ANIMALS PRACTICES Changes in crop rotations Changes in water management (irrigation and drainage) Changes in fertilizer management Changes in crop management Changes in animal management Ultimately we are going to have to quantify G x E x M interactions to develop effective adaptive strategies AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION Agriculture has adapted to climate change and will continue to adapt Practices will have to cope with larger extremes in temperature and precipitation