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Transcript
ClimateContext Draft v26 1.11.2015 In December 2015 governments meet to negotiate a new UN agreement on climate change. climate and link them upvulnerability Explore critical topics and current debates with the fundamentals of climate change.change greenhouse gas climate change Select a topic of youremissions choice and browse Climate Context. impacts climate change mitigation … climate change adaptation 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation A multitude of terms, concepts and buzzwords float around in climate change discourses to the extent that they can become confusing and discouraging. Therefore, we will first take a look at how the core issues of climate change precisely relate to one another. Climate change is one of the major challenges to global society in the 21st century. climate change greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation … vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation Climate change is caused by Greenhouse Gas Emissions – short: GHG emissions. greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation … climate change vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation Climate change is caused by Greenhouse Gas Emissions – short: GHG emissions. GHG emissions climate change mitigation … climate change vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation There are natural and manmade (anthropogenic) GHG emissions. In its 2014 assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the change of global climate in recent decades is with high certainty (95%) anthropogenic. climate change mitigation … climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation Climate change has profound and farreaching impacts on our world. They will grow in scale and magnitude in the future, especially with climate change accelerating and amplifying. climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation … Impacts vary drastically around the globe and affect the physics of the vulnerability earth system, the biosphere and society. climate change impacts climate change adaptation How severely climate change will affect human communities and ecosystem also depends on their vulnerability. Vulnerability has many determinants, among them the sensitivity to harm and the lack to cope and adapt. For example, marginalised and poorer people have less resources to protect themselves against the impacts of climate change and are thus often more vulnerable. climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation … vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation There are two simultaneous ways of how humankind can (and does) react to climate change: … climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation There are two simultaneous ways of how humankind can (and does) react to climate change: Adaptation … climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation There are two simultaneous ways of how humankind can (and does) react to climate change: Adaptation and mitigation … climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation In order to adapt to climate change impacts, adaptation aims at reducing the vulnerability to climate change. climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation Mitigation efforts aim to restrain anthropogenic climate change and keep it within certain limits. This is mainly done by a portfolio of measures to reduce GHG emissions. vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation Another prospective option, which is more risky and highly controversial, is to directly manipulate the climate system by using either carbon dioxide removal or solar radiation management techniques. These techniques have been labelled geoengineering. vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement International climate negotiations at COP21 in Paris will negotiate key issues around global mitigation and adaptation efforts – with the main goal of reaching an international climate agreement.. [final] 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation In order to understand the different positions on burden sharing of emission reductions, it helps to take a look at how and where global GHG emissions have developed. Contrasting different perspectives on emissions will help approaching issues of historical and current liabilities and global equity. Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to climate vulnerability increase change between 1970 and 2010 with larger increases per decade towards the end of this period. GHG emissions climate change mitigation climate change impacts climate change adaptation The most recent decade of 2000 to 2010 saw GHG climate vulnerability emissions change at historically high levels … GHG emissions climate change mitigation climate change impacts climate change adaptation The most recent decade of 2000 to 2010 saw GHG climate vulnerability emissions change at historically high levels, reaching an emissions volume of 49 GtCO2eq/yr in 2010. GHG emissions climate change mitigation climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability Without significant taken towards reducing GHG climatesteps change emissions, they are projected to further increase at a impacts rate of xx per cent annually. climate change adaptation climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability What is causing GHG emissions? climate change What are the main drivers? And who is responsible? impacts climate change adaptation vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers Global GHG emissions are distributed highly unequally across time, countries and sectors. Different pictures on who is responsible for climate change emerge from the different perspectives. Click through the tabs and see for yourself. by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion CO2 remains the major anthropogenic GHG, accounting for three (75%) quarters of total anthropogenic GHG emissions. CO2 emissions 75% GHG emissions climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current CO2 remains the major anthropogenic GHG, accounting for three quarters (75%) of total anthropogenic GHG emissions. The remaining 25 per cent of non-CO2 GHG emissions are made up of methane (2010: 16 per cent), nitrous oxide (2.6 per cent) and fluorinated gases (2.0 per cent). Despite occurring in much smaller quantities, these non-CO2 GHG are highly potent and produce a much stronger greenhouse effect than CO2 – some with a shorter lifetime. Methane (NH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Fluorinated Gases (HFC, PFC, SF6) per capita production vs consumption CO2 emissions 16% 2.6% 75% GHG emissions Non- CO2 emissions 2% conclusion 25% climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries CO2 remains the major anthropogenic GHG, accounting for three quarters (75%) of total anthropogenic GHG emissions. The remaining 25 per cent of non-CO2 GHG emissions are made up of methane (2010: 16 per cent), nitrous oxide (2.6 per cent) and fluorinated gases (2.0 per cent). Despite occurring in much smaller quantities, these non-CO2 GHG are highly potent and produce a much stronger greenhouse effect than CO2 – some with a shorter lifetime. climate change historic vs current production vs consumption conclusion In order to make the different GHGs (CO2 and non-CO2) comparable, non-CO2 GHGs are often converted into their CO2 equivalent, i.e. the CO2 amount that equals their contribution to radiative forcing. Methane (NH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Fluorinated Gases (HFC, PFC, SF6) per capita CO2 emissions 16% 2.6% 75% GHG emissions Non- CO2 emissions 2% 25% climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers climate change by Countries historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion About half of all CO2 emissions between about 1750, when the industrial revolution started, and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years. 1750 1800 1850 1900 1750 - 1970 1950 2000 1971-2010 910 Gt 1100 Gt 2000 Gt* CO2 emissions GHG emissions Non- CO2 emissions * CO2 emissions cover Fossil, Cement, Flaring and FOLU climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption Most GHG emissions originate from fossilfuelled energy production, industrial processes and land use. Here, energy production includes heating of buildings and the fossil-based transport sector. coal oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use GHG emissions conclusion climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption The main drivers of increasing CO2 emissions are economic growth and population growth. economic growth coal population growth demand oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use GHG emissions conclusion climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion Until the 1970s the industrialized countries (high-income group) were responsible for the largest share of global emissions. Low Income 1970: 3.2 Gt Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income 3.4 Gt 5.9 Gt High Income 14.4 Gt GHG emissions climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion Emerging economies such as China, Brazil, and South Africa have caught up since the 1970s and emit increasing amounts of GHG – in the World Bank income classification they are part of the uppermiddle-income group. Low Income 1970: 3.2 Gt 2010: 3.4 Gt Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income 3.4 Gt 5.9 Gt 7.9 Gt 18.3 Gt High Income 14.4 Gt 18.7 Gt GHG emissions climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion The top 15 emitting countries share about 75 per cent of global CO2 emissions. China overtook the US as the world’s biggest CO2 emitter already a decade ago. CO2 emissions GHG emissions Non- CO2 emissions Radius der Kreise, wo die Prozentzahlen der Fläche auf den Radius umgerechnet sind 0.71 1.27 0.69 0.87 2.34 2.88 0.80 0.67 0.69 0.74 1.09 1.45 0.71 0.71 Share of CO2 emissions in 2010 (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. In Prozent so wie es in den Kreisen erscheinen soll 1.6 5.1 1.5 2.4 17.2 26 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 3.7 6.6 1.6 1.6 Share of CO2 emissions in 2010 (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. Länderangebe n wo nicht eindeutig Cana da Grea t Brita in Russ ia Ger man y USA Iran Saud i Arab ia Mex ico Sout h Kore a Chin a Indi a Indo nesi a Sout h Afric a Share of CO2 emissions in 2010 (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. Japa n climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion The historical shifts in emissions distribution result in diverging historical and contemporary responsibilities for GHG emissions and the resulting climate change. Emissions today: CO2 emissions GHG emissions Non- CO2 emissions climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion The historical shifts in emissions distribution result in diverging historical and contemporary responsibilities for GHG emissions and the resulting climate change. Historic emissions: CO2 emissions GHG emissions Non- CO2 emissions Radius der Kreise, wo die Prozentzahlen der Fläche auf den Radius umgerechnet sind 0.84 0.86 1.37 1.48 1.34 0.78 2.98 0.96 1.78 0.74 1.17 0.91 0.62 Cumulated (1751-2010) energy and industry emissions (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. In Prozent so wie es in den Kreisen erscheinen soll 2.2 6.9 2.3 5.9 5.6 1.9 27.9 2.9 9.9 1.7 4.3 2.6 1.2 Cumulated (1751-2010) energy and industry emissions (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. Länderangebe n wo nicht eindeutig Cana da USA Grea t Brita in Pola nd Ger man y Fran ce Russ ia Ukra ine Chin a Italy Japa n Indi a Aust ralia Cumulated (1751-2010) energy and industry emissions (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion While China is the biggest and India the third biggest GHG emitter today, they also constitute more than a third of the world’s population. In per capita emissions they rank far lower. A comparison of GHG emissions per capita shows how emissions continue to be very unequally distributed between the major emitting countries. contribute to GHG emissions Länderangebe n wo nicht eindeutig Cana da USA Grea t Brita in Russ ia Ger man y Fran ce Italy Iran Saud i Arab ia Mex ico Sout h Kore a Chin a Indi a Indo nesi a Sout h Afric a Aust ralia Per capita GHG emissions in 2010 (in tCO2eq/cap/yr)* * For those 17 countries with the top total national emissions. Japa n climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion Yet another picture emerges if CO2 emissions are attributed to the region of consumption and not of production. This is particularly important in the case of regions producing energy-intensive products (e.g. China) for export and consumption in high-income regions (e.g. EU, US). Territorial emissions: CO2 emissions GHG emissions Non- CO2 emissions climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current per capita production vs consumption conclusion Yet another picture emerges if CO2 emissions are attributed to the region of consumption and not of production. This is particularly important in the case of regions producing energy-intensive products (e.g. China) for export and consumption in high-income regions (e.g. EU, US). Emissions from consumption: CO2 emissions GHG emissions Non- CO2 emissions Radius der Kreise, wo die Prozentzahlen der Fläche auf den Radius umgerechnet sind 1.14 0.80 0.76 0.96 2.4 0.74 0.76 0.69 2.64 0.76 0.62 0.80 1.21 1.38 0.69 0.67 Share of CO2 emissions from consumption in 2010 (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. In Prozent so wie es in den Kreisen erscheinen soll 4.1 2 1.8 2.9 18.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 21.9 1.8 1.2 2 4.6 6 1.5 1.4 Share of CO2 emissions from consumption in 2010 (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. Länderangebe n wo nicht eindeutig Grea t Brita in Cana da Russ ia Ger man y Fran ce USA Italy Iran Saud i Arab ia Mex ico Sout h Kore a Chin a Japa n Indi a Indo nesi a Brazi l Share of CO2 emissions from consumption in 2010 (in per cent)* * Only those countries contributing to the top 75% of the global total. climate change mitigation Overview GHG emissions GHG Composition increase over time by Drivers by Countries climate change historic vs current The different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions – historic vs. current, total vs. per capita, territorial vs. consumption – impact on the international climate negotiations and the question of how emissions reductions should be equitably distributed. per capita production vs consumption conclusion 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation What exactly are the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system? And how do they force the climate to change? climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement climate change GHG emissions Carbon dioxide and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases both cause climate change, but through different mechanisms. To understand their different effects on the climate system, we examine them separately. … climate change CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions … The global carbon cycle is an earth-spanning carbon metabolism by which carbon is moved across the Earth system. Carbon is contained in the atmosphere, the oceans, in permafrost and climate change terrestrial vegetation. carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions … greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change Human socio-economic activities – above all, fossil fuel combustion and forest clearing – have produced vast amounts of CO2, which impact on the global carbon cycle. climate change carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions … greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change The increase in CO2 emissions result in the oceans absorbing larger climate change amounts of carbon dioxide. carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions … greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change The absorbed CO2 makes the water more acidic. This process is known as ocean acidification. It is especially harmful for maritime ecosystems such as climate coral reefs. change carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions … greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change Also the atmosphere takes up greater climate change amounts of carbon dioxide. carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions … greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change climate change carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions … The CO2ocean in the atmosphere acidification contributes to the greenhouse effect. But how does it do so and what is the global greenhouse effect? temperature greenhouse change effect climate change carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change The greenhouse effect describes how the sun’s radiation is trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere and warms it. Greenhouse gases such as CO2 absorb parts of the solar radiation reflected from the Earth’s surface. climate change carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change Generally, the greenhouse effect is a natural and necessary element of our life on Earth: Without any greenhouse effect, the average temperature on Earth would be -18°C (-0.4°F) instead of our current +15°C (59°F). However, the amount of human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has pushed the greenhouse effect to the extent that it produces dangerous global warming. climate change carbon cycle CO2 emissions greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change Non-CO2 emissions The greenhouse effect is measured through the change in the Earth’s radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is defined as the difference between the sun’s radiation kept within the atmosphere and the share released back into space. Its unit is Watts per square meter (W/m2). climate change carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change Other greenhouse gases do not pass through the carbon cycle, but impact on the Earth’s radiative forcing directly. They appear in much smaller quantities, some have a shorter lifetime, but are much more efficient in trapping radiation in the atmosphere and therefore have a much greater Global Warming Potential (GWP). climate change carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect ocean acidification global temperature change methane nitrous oxide fluorinated gases Methane is at least 28 times more potent than CO2 over a 100 year period. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is around 300 times as powerful as CO2 over that same time span and Fluorinated Gases reach a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of several thousand times greater than CO2. … Using these different warming potentials, greenhouse gases can be made comparable in their power to effect climate change. The aggregate amount of greenhouse gases is oftentimes indicated in CO2 equivalents, or CO2eq. climate change carbon cycle CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions ocean acidification greenhouse effect global temperature change So, while CO2 continues to be the major greenhouse gas, all greenhouse gases contribute to the increase in the Earth’s temperature by trapping radiation in the atmosphere. However, the Earth’s surface does not warm evenly, but with extreme differences across locales, regions and continents. For instance, the Arctic warms about twice as much as landmasses. 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation The impacts of climate change are vast and globe-spanning. This is primarily so because our climate is a complex system containing many interconnected components and interdependencies. climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement climate change GHG emissions … climate change impacts climate change CO2 emissions Non-CO2 emissions … climate change impacts climate change ocean CO2 uptake CO2 emissions atmospheric CO2 uptake … climate change impacts … CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers / polar ice melting more extreme weather events heavy precipitation patters forest degradation CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers / polar ice melting more extreme weather events heavy precipitation patters forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers / polar ice melting more extreme weather events More extreme precipitation patters (floodings, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers / polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers / polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers / polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers / polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation From impactrelationships relationships is evident that the climate elements Fromthe the core core impact it is itevident that the climate system‘s system‘s elements interact with another.with Some another. elements affected by climate change impact other elements, which in turn retroact interact Some elements affected by on climate change impact on other on others,which producing complex interactions within the climate system. elements, in turn retroact on others, producing complex interactions within the climate system. Among these interactions, there are several noteworthy feedback mechanisms that influence the intensity of climate change. A feedback is a circular process with self-reinforcing or self-diminishing Among these interactions, there are several noteworthy feedback mechanisms that properties. influence intensity of climate change. A feedback is that a circular process withtheselfThere are the positive and negative feedbacks: Feedback mechanisms amplify and reinforce initial reinforcing self-diminishing properties. change areorcalled positive feedbacks. Feedbacks that alleviate the effect of a forcing are negative feedbacks. There are positive and negative feedbacks: Feedback mechanisms that amplify and Many climate feedbacks are positive feedbacks. Oncefeedbacks. set in motion, they develop and reinforce the initial change are called positive Feedbacks that independent alleviate the self-perpetuating which introduces a high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability into effect of a forcing dynamics, are negative feedbacks. the climate system. Many climate feedbacks are positive feedbacks. Once set in motion, they develop independent and self-perpetuating dynamics, which introduces a high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability into the climate system. climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting thawing of permafrost more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security methane release thawing of permafrost more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise glaciers & polar ice melting species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security methane release thawing of permafrost more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect freshwater slows ocean circulation temperature rise decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification CO2 Ocean uptake (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions greenhouse effect temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake increased water vapour (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification greenhouse effect temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake increased water vapour (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification greenhouse effect temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo glaciers & polar ice melting species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security methane release thawing of permafrost more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) agricultural losses and threats to food security 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation The climate system and its internal dynamics contain so-called tipping points. These are critical thresholds, which, when crossed, produce largely unpredictable and chaotic responses on the part of the system. This non-linear behaviour is a characteristic of complex systems. Climate change is therefore marked by a fundamental uncertainty regarding its impacts and consequences. Rapid and abrupt responses of the climate system with potentially devastating effects can occur when the magnitude of climate change is not constrained. climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on maritime ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security coral reef bleaching /mortality CO2 emissions marine carbon pump CO2 Ocean uptake CO2 atmospheric uptake non-CO2 emissions detrimental impacts on marine ecosystem ocean acidification increased water vapour change in atmospheric temperature profile greenhouse effect (regional differences in) sea level rise ocean warming temperature rise freshwater slows ocean circulation land & ocean absorb more of sun’s heat decrease of earth’s albedo methane release thawing of permafrost glaciers & polar ice melting more extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes) heavy precipitation patters (floods, rainfall, droughts, wildfires) forest degradation (in the Amazon & boreal forests) species migration or extinction, biodiversity loss, fisheries threatened health risks / mortality + destruction of infrastructure & habitat security agricultural losses and threats to food security Crossing the threshold of a tipping point, the system produces largely unpredictable responses that enter into feedback processes with other climate system elements. It moves from a state of relative stability into a state of fundamental instability and unpredictability. Although the system eventually reaches a new equilibrium and settles into a new state of relative stability, this transformation is often irreversible and, in the case of the climate system, has far-reaching consequences for ecosystems and human communities. 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation The differences between a world warmed by 1.5°C, 2°C or 4°C by the end of the 21st century may appear subtle at first glance. However, these different scenarios are literally worlds apart when it comes to their impacts on human communities and ecosystems as well as the mitigation and adaptation efforts they require. The question of the future world we are going to inhabit is essentially being decided now: The magnitude and gravity of climate change will fundamentally depend on what mitigation and adaptation action is taken globally in the next decade. 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation … The 2°C target mark – limiting global warming to 2°C measured against pre-industrial levels – has been the vulnerability international consensus on climate change mitigation since the 2009 vulnerability Copenhagen Accord. By setting the 2°C target as a guardrail, the international community of states climate change seeks to implement the pledge impacts made in UNFCCC Article 2 to avoid dangerous climate change. climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate atmospheric change Scenarios reaching impacts concentration levels of about 450 ppm CO2eq by 2100 – this GHG concentration level is consistent with a likely* chance for temperature change to remain climate change below 2°C relative to pre-industrial adaptation levels – require significant reductions in global GHG emissions. GHG emissions will have to be decreased globally by 40 to 70 per cent by 2050 and arrive at emissions levels near zero GtCO2eq or below by the end of the century. 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts Arriving at 2°C global warming is technically feasible. Above all, it will require a profound transformation of the energy system and potentially large-scale climate changes in land use. change adaptation With regard to energy production, scenarios modelling trajectories to 2°C usually rely on the multiplication of the share of zero- and low-carbon energy supply, rapid improvements in energy efficiency and also on Bioenergy and Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) technologies. The question of land use in these scenarios refers to the scale of bioenergy production, afforestation and reduced deforestation. Delayed mitigation efforts will make the transition to low-carbon emission levels far more difficult and costly, as well as narrow the range of options available to still maintain temperature change below 2°C. More: Mitigation pathways 2°C 4°C 1.5°C Climate change of 2°C global warming will not be benign. We currently stand at a temperature increase of 0.8°C relative to pre-industrial, and the effects are already being felt by climate human communities and ecosystems: change Floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires, melting glaciers and polar regions, large-scale species greenhouse gas extinction, to name butemissions a few. The impacts of climate change will be far more pronounced in a 2°C warmer world. However, climate change impacts do not exacerbate linearly with climate changetemperature change, but contain a strong degree of uncertainty and mitigation unpredictability in that certain processes potentiate each other (More: Impacts, feedbacks, tipping points). They will furthermore be distributed unevenly across continents and regions. vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C GHG emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts The impacts, but also the degree of exposure and vulnerability to climate change are distributed very unevenly across countries and among populations. climate change adaptation Climate change poses greater risks to very low-income countries, low-lying and small island states and otherwise vulnerable countries because they are especially affected by physical changes in their environment and/or lack financial, infrastructural and/or technological means for adequate adaptation. 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C GHG emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation Similarly, marginalised segments of the population are particularly vulnerable as they tend to be exposed to climate change impacts very directly through impacts on livelihoods, harvests and material security. Climaterelated hazards furthermore often exacerbate already existing strain and tensions. 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C GHG emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation Climate change with a 4°C increase in global mean surface temperature measured against pre-industrial levels is where we are currently headed to with present-day GHG emissions remaining unabated or even further increasing vulnerability due to economic and population growth as projected (business-as-usual scenario, BAU). climate change Without additional mitigation, the IPCC impacts estimates global temperature increase to range between 3.7°C and 4.8°C by 2100. The range extends to between 2.5°C to 7.8°C when including climate uncertainty. climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change Baseline scenarios – i.e. scenarios impacts without ramped-up efforts to reduce emissions – project GHG atmospheric concentration to exceed 450 ppm (the concentration rate likely to be consistent with climate remaining below 2°C) already by change adaptation 2030 and reach CO2eq concentration levels between 750 and more than 1300 ppm in 2100. 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts climate According to studies, policies that are currently in placechange across adaptation the world will result in 3.3°C to 3.8°C global warming. The mitigation pledges that states have so far made pave the way for a world that is on average 2.5°C to 2.7°C warmer than preindustrial times. There remains a substantial gap between current pledges and the 2°C target, but also a large gap between pledges and what states actually implement in terms of mitigation policies. 2°C 4°C 1.5°C Climate change impacts in a 4°C world will be rampant and devastating for large numbers of people. A 4°C world will reinforce the unequal distribution of climate change consequences: the largest warming, for example, will occur over land and range from 4°C to 10°C in some regions of the world, including the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Middle East and the nearby parts of the United States.climate Moreover, high-temperature extremes willchange climate increase dramatically in intensity and frequency. engineering It will lead to a sea level rise of 0.5m to 1m by greenhouse gas the end of this century, and several more emissions meters within the centuries to come. The precise conditions and consequences of such runaway climate change are not climate predictable due to feedback unambiguously change processes in the Earth system that are being mitigation intensified with rising temperature and thresholds of more crucial and vitally important tipping elements being crossed. (link to World Bank reports Turn Down the Heat) vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation With climate change impacts escalating in scope and intensity with rising temperatures, increasingly large numbers of people and ecosystems will be affected, for instance by sea level rise or lack of freshwater resources. In a 4°C warmer world, more people will face disruption, damage and dislocation, and those affected will also be so more fiercely. 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts A world of 4°C global mean surface temperature increase will exceed the adaptive capacity of many communities and ecosystems. 4°C warming will exacerbate species extinction and overstrain many societies’ financial, technological and infrastructural capacities to protect themselves from the worst of impacts. Adaptation in all countries will be much more costly and facing greater risks and challenges. climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation A coalition of vulnerable countries, Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries call for limiting global warming to an 1.5°C increase in global warming above preindustrial levels. They argue that vulnerability the 2°C guardrail does not denote the transition from “harmless” to “dangerous climate change”, but from dangerous climate change to disastrous climate change. impacts climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C 1.5°C A 1.5°C target for global warming would be significantly safer for many communities and ecosystems. Chances are high that a 1.5°C climate warming marks the tipping pointchange of at least two crucial tipping elements: Tropical coral reefs - vital greenhouse gas components emissions of maritime ecosystems require long-term CO2 levels of below 350ppm for survival, which corresponds to the threshold of 1.5°C temperature increase. climate change Risks for large parts of the Earth’s ice mitigation cover – Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets – may also increase substantially above 1.5°C warming, which can prompt irreversible and accelerating retreat. vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation 2°C The reduced exposure to climate change impacts similarly alleviates the vulnerability of human communities and ecosystems. 4°C climate vulnerability At 1.5°C, most terrestrial and change maritime species would be able to keep pace and adapt to the changing greenhouse gas climate. climate change 1.5°C emissions climate change mitigation impacts Consequently, the capacity for adaption would be greater, especially in the agricultural sector. It would avoid or substantially reduce threats to food security, coral reefs and the Earth’s ice cover. climate change adaptation 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts to 1.5°C Limiting global warming would require an even more rapid and radical reduction of global GHG emissions. Emissions would need to peak in the next few years and beclimate reduced by 35-45 per cent belowchange adaptation 2010 levels by 2030. The decarbonisation of the energy and industry sectors would need to be sped up significantly so that the necessary zero emissions levels would be reached by around 2050. 2°C 4°C climate change 1.5°C greenhouse gas emissions climate change mitigation vulnerability climate change impacts climate change In its 2014 report, the IPCC concludes that scenarios in which adaptation global warming can be limited to 1.5°C require immediate mitigation action, the rapid upscaling of the full portfolio of mitigation techniques – including Carbon Capture and Storage – and a development along a low-energy demand trajectory. While 1.5°C scenarios are technically still possible, they currently appear out of reach politically. 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation The 2°C target – limiting global to 2°C measured against pre-industrial temperature levels – has become a focal point in political discourse and international climate negotiations. What are the characteristics of different transformation pathways reaching the 2° target? What difference does the timing make, that is, what is the effect of shifting the beginning of substantial concerted international action and of the year of peak emissions? climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation co-benefits international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement immediate action delayed action climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation co-benefits international climate agreement – Paris Agreement climate change GHG emissions climate change mitigation international climate agreement – Paris Agreement 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy climate and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation Bioenergy and Carbon Capture and Storage (short: BECCS) technologies have found their way into many mitigation portfolios. Given their potential to produce net negative emissions, they become increasingly attractive for delayed action scenarios. However, BECCS remains politically contested due to the (long-term) risks they involve. climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement CO2 concentration in atmosphere energy coal coal plant CO2 concentration in atmosphere energy coal CSS coal plant CO2 concentration in atmosphere energy coal CSS coal plant geological storage CO2 concentration in atmosphere bio energy biomass BECCS plant geological storage CO2 concentration in atmosphere bio energy biomass BECCS plant geological storage CO2 concentration in atmosphere bio energy biomass BECCS plant geological storage CO2 concentration in atmosphere bio energy biomass BECCS plant geological storage CO2 concentration in atmosphere bio energy biomass land-use conflicts BECCS plant geological storage CO2 concentration in atmosphere bio energy biomass land-use conflicts BECCS plant land-use change geological storage CO2 concentration in atmosphere bio energy biomass BECCS plant geological storage CO2 concentration in atmosphere bio energy biomass BECCS plant geological storage 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation It is clear that we need urgent and large-scale reductions in global greenhouse gases. But what are concrete measures and instruments that governments, businesses and industry, but also societies at large have at their disposal to bring down emissions? climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement Most GHG emissions originate from fossil-fuelled energy production, industrial processes and land use. Emissions are also produced when heating buildings and in the fossil-based transport sector, that can be subsumed under fossil-fuelled energy production. What instruments, tools and mechanisms do political actors, but also industry and civil society have at hand to reduce GHG emissions? coal oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal CO2 price oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions coal oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions phase out of fossil fuel subsidies coal oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies coal oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies coal oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies coal oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies coal CO2 price oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal CO2 price oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal CO2 price carbon tax oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal global CO2 price carbon tax oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal global CO2 price oil gas carbon tax fossil-fuelled energy production renewables GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal global CO2 price oil gas carbon tax fossil-fuelled energy production renewables Subsidise renewables GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal global CO2 price oil gas carbon tax fossil-fuelled energy production renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal global CO2 price oil gas carbon tax fossil-fuelled energy production renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies consumption patterns phase out of fossil fuel subsidies investment & subsidies behaviour standards infrastructure cap & trade coal CO2 price carbon tax demand efficiency oil gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal CO2 price oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies phase out of fossil fuel subsidies behaviour cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies consumption patterns phase out of fossil fuel subsidies behaviour cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies consumption patterns phase out of fossil fuel subsidies behaviour infrastructure cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies consumption patterns phase out of fossil fuel subsidies standards behaviour infrastructure cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies consumption patterns phase out of fossil fuel subsidies investment & subsidies behaviour standards infrastructure cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies consumption patterns phase out of fossil fuel subsidies investment & subsidies behaviour standards infrastructure cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies consumption patterns phase out of fossil fuel subsidies investment & subsidies behaviour standards infrastructure cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions indirect subsidies direct subsidies consumption patterns phase out of fossil fuel subsidies investment & subsidies behaviour standards infrastructure cap & trade coal CO2 price demand efficiency oil carbon tax gas fossil-fuelled energy production industrial processes land use renewables subsidise renewables nuclear GHG emissions 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement Climate change has been on the agenda of international politics for more than two decades: In 1992, the international community adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), stipulating the stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration at a level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. However, approaches to tackling climate change at the international level have varied. Crucially, they have differed in the degree of centralised authority that states confer on the multilateral institutions they create. Two modes of international action on climate change will be presented here and exemplified by two concrete approaches. international cooperation on climate change International action on climate change Top-down approach Bottom-up approach e.g. Global emissions budget e.g. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Emission Reduction targets Climate finance Adaptation policies International action on climate change Top-down approach Bottom-up approach e.g. Global emissions budget e.g. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Emission Reduction targets Climate finance Adaptation policies Global emissions budget 2°C guardrail Global emissions budget Global emissions budget 2°C guardrail Global emissions budget A maximum of 750 Gt CO2 (billion metric tons) may be released into the atmosphere by mid-century for preserving a 67 per cent probability of limiting global warming to 2°C. Aiming for a 75 per cent probability reduces the amount of cumulative emissions to below 600 Gt CO2. Either way, only small amounts of CO2 may be emitted worldwide after 2050. Global emissions budget 2°C guardrail Global emissions budget Equitable distribution of remaining emissions Global emissions budget 2°C guardrail Global emissions budget Equitable distribution of remaining emissions Historical reponsibility of industrialised countries polluter pays principle: additional financial compensation from North to South Per-capita basis with a demographic year of reference Global emissions budget 2°C guardrail Global emissions budget Equitable distribution of remaining emissions Historical reponsibility of industrialised countries Polluter pays principle: additional financial compensation from North to South Per-capita basis with a demographic year of reference 2,7t CO2 per capita per year Global emissions budget 2°C guardrail Global emissions budget Legally binding national emissions budgets Equitable distribution of remaining emissions Historical reponsibility of industrialised countries Polluter pays principle: additional financial compensation from North to South Per-capita basis with a demographic year of reference 2,7t CO2 per capita per year Global emissions budget 2°C guardrail Translation into national law: decarbonization roadmaps Global emissions budget Legally binding national emissions budgets Equitable distribution of remaining emissions Historical reponsibility of industrialised countries Polluter pays principle: additional financial compensation from North to South Per-capita basis with a demographic year of reference 2,7t CO2 per capita per year Global emissions budget 2°C guardrail Translation into national law: decarbonization roadmaps Global emissions budget Legally binding national emissions budgets Equitable distribution of remaining emissions 2,7t CO2 per capita per year Source: WBGU 2009: Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach International action on climate change Top-down approach Bottom-up approach e.g. Global emissions budget e.g. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Emission Reduction targets Climate finance Adaptation policies International action on climate change Top-down approach Bottom-up approach e.g. Global emissions budget e.g. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Emission Reduction targets Climate finance Adaptation policies International action on climate change Top-down approach Bottom-up approach e.g. e.g. Global emissions budget Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Emission Reduction targets Climate finance Adaptation policies International action on climate change Top-down approach Bottom-up approach e.g. e.g. Global emissions budget Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Emission Reduction targets Climate finance Adaptation policies International action on climate change Top-down approach Bottom-up approach e.g. e.g. Global emissions budget Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Emission Reduction targets Climate finance Adaptation policies 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation Current national commitments on GHG emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol expire in 2020. A new international agreement and fresh emission reduction targets for the decades after 2020 and beyond are vitally and pressingly needed. 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations climate treaty climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations climate treaty climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations climate treaty climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations goal International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation international climate negotiations – Paris Agreement 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • INDCs 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • INDCs 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • INDCs 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • INDCs & review 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • INDCs & review 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • • INDCs & review climate finance 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • • INDCs & review climate finance Conditional pledges require 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • • INDCs & review climate finance Conditional pledges require 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • • INDCs & review climate finance 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts loss & damage climate change mitigation • • INDCs & review climate finance climate change adaptation 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts loss & damage climate change mitigation • • • • INDCs & review climate finance technology transfer capacity building climate change adaptation 1992 1997/2005 2015 UNFCCC Kyoto COP21 negotiations International climate agreement climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts loss & damage climate change mitigation • • • • INDCs & review climate finance technology transfer capacity building climate change adaptation 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country groupings and shared political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation At the international climate negotiations, each country is represented by their national delegation with an independent voice and vote. However, country groupings and alliances between states naturally form out of shared political interests and other commonalities. Developing countries generally develop common negotiating positions through the Group of 77 – the G77. 134 developing nations form this loose coalition that is active in different fora throughout the UN system. At the climate negotiations, they represent the views of the developing countries that bear less historical responsibility for climate change but are disproportionately affected. As they are nonetheless a very diverse group with different needs, capabilities and interests, several smaller groupings within that larger group of developing countries have emerged representing more specific aims and vulnerabilities. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) unites almost 40 small island and lowlying coastal states, most of them located in the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean, who are particularly affected by sea level rise and therefore continue to push for a 1.5°C global warming target. The coalition of Least Developed Countries (LDC) organises 48 of the poorest developing countries, most of them on the African continent. Due to their socioeconomic status, they experience the impacts of climate change with great severity as they lack much of the financial and technological resources to adapt and to reduce vulnerability of their populations. Together with the African regional group, they try to establish climate finance and a loss and damage compensation mechanism as priority topics in the negotiations. The group of Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) is a formal negotiating group specifically set up for international climate negotiations. With China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan and 22 more nations as its current members, the group represents more than half of the world’s population. The issue of climate finance is high on their agenda, as they press for the industrialised countries to live up to their financial promises and carry the financial burden of climate change. Another notable grouping comprises the BASIC countries – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – whose economies have been marked by substantial growth over the past decades and with it rising emissions. At the same time, these emerging economies were not assigned mandatory emission reductions under previous climate agreements, so they face increasing international pressure to step up their mitigation responsibility in a way that corresponds to their changing international role. On the other end of the spectrum, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lobbies for the interests of the oil-exporting countries and has therefore been trying to obstruct international climate negotiations and more ambitious and legally binding mitigation efforts. Only three out of twelve OPEC countries, Algeria, Ecuador and recently the United Arab Emirates, have come forward with an INDC at all, despite the fact that many of them have very energy-intensive economies and high per capita emissions. Other relevant regional groupings and organisations are AILAC – the Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean, CACAM – Central Asia, Caucasus and Moldavia, and ALBA – the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America. It is evident from the number of overlapping country groupings and alliances, many states participate and organise in different regional or issue-based organisations and coalitions to promote their interests to the best possible extent. International climate negotiations have become more fragmented over time, which is why it serves countries’ interests best to push their respective agendas and key concerns in the different fora. On the part of the industrialised countries, coalitions and groupings have equally formed, yet far less in number. The EU integrates the views of its 28 member states into one common negotiating stance. They have also submitted mitigation targets that apply to all member states. The Cartagena Group, in which several EU members participate, is an informal alliance under the UNFCCC that comprises both developing and industrialised countries with the goal to promote ambitious responses to climate change. Another informal country grouping is the Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) comprising Mexico, South Korea, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Monaco. They appear a rather unlikely alliance due to the stark differences between their countries in virtually all respects, however in their diversity lays also their potential in developing proposals and suggestions that can potentially be consented to by many other states. The Umbrella Group is a broad coalition of industrialised states outside the EU, including the US, Australia, Canada, Japan and the Russian Federation. Several of the Umbrella Group’s members are known for their opposition to legally binding emissions reduction targets. The different coalitions’ positions can differ widely on some of the most crucial issues dominating the international climate landscape, such as whether an international climate agreement should be legally binding, who should be obliged to take action, how much financial and technological support should be extended to developing countries for them to assist to the impacts of climate change and whether countries affected by climate change should be compensated for the loss and damages suffered. 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation The pledges made by countries vary significantly in the parameters they apply, which makes their comparison somewhat intricate: Some contain absolute emission reduction targets, others indicate deviations from their projected business-as-usual scenarios, aim for lowering their GDP energy intensity or for enlarging their countries’ forest stock for increased CO2 absorption. Some condition the implementation of their INDCs at least in part on the provision of international finance and technology transfer. Note also the differences in the year of reference adopted. It is therefore worthwhile taking a closer look at the INDCs of some of the currently largest emitters that comprise industrialised and emerging economies. China has pledged to reach peak emissions in 2030 or before. It seeks to lower their energy intensity by 60 to 65 per cent below 2005 levels and increase the share of non-fossil energy to 20 per cent, both also by 2030. Moreover, it aims to increase its forest stock volume to a total of around 4.5 billion cubic metres to augment the vegetational uptake of CO2. The United States have announced to cut emissions by 26 to 28 per cent measured against 2005 levels by 2025. In November 2014, the two countries had reached a bilateral understanding in which they committed themselves to emissions reductions. Their INDC pledges are based on this deal, which was widely praised for laying the foundation for international climate action that involves the two biggest polluters. The 28 EU member countries have agreed on a common pledge to cut EU-wide emissions by 40 per cent measured against 1990 levels by 2030. India aims to lower its GDP emission intensity by 33 to 35 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. It also pledges to increase the share of non-fossil fuelled power generation capacity to 40 per cent of the overall electricity generation - which would make it one of the most ambitious renewable energy programme in the world. Moreover, India pledges to develop additional carbon sinks through afforestation that can absorb a cumulated 2.5 to 3 gigatons CO2eq. Under this INDC, actual emissions will despite the improvements in energy intensity rise by 90 per cent compared to current levels, with no peak in sight. This is largely due to the continued population and economic growth. Under this scenario, India will nevertheless still emit not even half as much as China in absolute terms, and remains comparably low in terms of per capita emissions. India has estimated the costs of implementation of its INDC at 2.5 trillion USD over the next 15 years. The Russian Federation pledges to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent measured against 2005 levels by 2025. However, Russian emissions declined significantly after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, which is why their INDC in fact means an increase of roughly 30 to 40 per cent above contemporary levels. Other emerging economies and developing countries have committed themselves to substantial mitigation efforts, but on condition of financial and technological transfers. Brazil seeks to cut emissions by 36 to 39 per cent in 2020 compared to its business-asusual (BAU) trajectory. However, this pledge is conditioned on the provision of adequate financial and technological support. Indonesia pledges to unconditionally reduce emissions by 26 per cent below business-asusual. With adequate international support in terms of finance and technology, it will reduce emissions by 41 per cent. Mexico’s INDC is very similar in terms: Its unconditional target is to reduce emissions by 25 per cent below its current baseline (BAU) scenario by 2030, a decrease by 40 per cent is equally conditional on the delivery of satisfactory financial and technological support. This first round of emission reduction pledges made for the post-2020 period will result in an overshoot of the 2°C target by far. However, they may constitute the urgently needed entry point into the transition towards a low-carbon global energy. This is particularly true for the energy sector, where INDCs aim to expand the share of renewables and make energy production more efficient. It is important, however, that the current targets and ambition levels do not get locked in for 2030, but are continually revised and scaled up over the course of the next 15 years. Ramping up mitigation efforts significantly in the near future bears the only chance of keeping a global temperature increase below 2°C within reach. 1 Starting from scratch: An introduction to climate change 2 climate What is causing our climate to change and who is to blame? change Different perspectives on greenhouse gas emissions 2.1 GHG emissions and the climate system 3 What are the impacts of climate change on nature and society? 4 How does climate change take on a life of its own? Feedback processes in the climate system 5 Crossing irreversible thresholds: Tipping points in a complex climate system Worlds of our making: vulnerability Scenarios of 2°C, 4°C and 1.5°C global warming 6 7 climate change impacts How do we get on track for 2°C? Mitigation pathways for limiting global warming 7.1 climate Removing CO2 from the atmosphere? The case of Bioenergy and Carbon Capture change and Storage (BECCS) and net negative emissions adaptation 8 9 10 11 … What are the instruments and mechanisms at hand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? How does international politics deal with climate change? Modes of international action What is at stake at COP 21? Hot topics and points of contention Country examples and political interests 11.1 12 INDC country examples How can we respond to the impacts of climate change? Vulnerability and adaptation Climate change is already here: The world has on average warmed by 0.8°C over the past century and has in many parts of the world brought more frequent droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising sea levels in its wake. Moreover, due to the longevity of GHG in the atmosphere and the relative inertia of the climate system, global temperature will inevitably increase by another 0.6°C, even if emissions were to be stabilised very soon. climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation International climate negotiations – Paris Agreement climate change vulnerability climate change impacts risk climate change adaptation climate change vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation Reduce vulnerability Adapt to climate change impacts Reduce vulnerability Adapt to climate change impacts To promote Human Development, local and national authorities make efforts to improve access to education, nutrition, health facilities, energy, safe housing and settlement structures as well as social support structures. They moreover seek to reduce gender equality and marginalisation in other forms. Reduce vulnerability To promote Human Development, local and national authorities make efforts to improve access to education, nutrition, health facilities, energy, safe housing and settlement structures as well as social support structures. They moreover seek to reduce gender equality and marginalisation in other forms. Poverty alleviation is more specifically geared towards improving access and control of local resources for poor and marginalised people. This includes land tenure, disaster risk management, social safety nets and social protection as well as insurance schemes. Adapt to climate change impacts Reduce vulnerability To promote Human Development, local and national authorities make efforts to improve access to education, nutrition, health facilities, energy, safe housing and settlement structures as well as social support structures. They moreover seek to reduce gender equality and marginalisation in other forms. Poverty alleviation is more specifically geared towards improving access and control of local resources for poor and marginalised people. This includes land tenure, disaster risk management, social safety nets and social protection as well as insurance schemes. Adaptation schemes that aim at increasing livelihood security tend to target both vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts. Vulnerability reduction includes the diversification of income, assets and livelihoods, the improvement of infrastructure, access to technology and decision-making fora and reliance on social networks. Adaptive steps include changes in cropping, livestock and aquaculture practices that adjust to new local or regional conditions. Adapt to climate change impacts Reduce vulnerability To promote Human Development, local and national authorities make efforts to improve access to education, nutrition, health facilities, energy, safe housing and settlement structures as well as social support structures. They moreover seek to reduce gender equality and marginalisation in other forms. Poverty alleviation is more specifically geared towards improving access and control of local resources for poor and marginalised people. This includes land tenure, disaster risk management, social safety nets and social protection as well as insurance schemes. Adaptation schemes that aim at increasing livelihood security tend to target both vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts. Vulnerability reduction includes the diversification of income, assets and livelihoods, the improvement of infrastructure, access to technology and decision-making fora and reliance on social networks. Adaptive steps include changes in cropping, livestock and aquaculture practices that adjust to new local or regional conditions. Towards the adaptive end of the spectrum, disaster risk management plays an important role in preparing for the adverse impacts of climate change. Disaster risk management includes the installation of early warning systems, hazard and vulnerability mappings, diversification of water resources, improved drainage, flood and cyclone shelters, building codes and practices, wastewater management as well as transport and road infrastructure improvements. Adapt to climate change impacts Reduce vulnerability To promote Human Development, local and national authorities make efforts to improve access to education, nutrition, health facilities, energy, safe housing and settlement structures as well as social support structures. They moreover seek to reduce gender equality and marginalisation in other forms. Poverty alleviation is more specifically geared towards improving access and control of local resources for poor and marginalised people. This includes land tenure, disaster risk management, social safety nets and social protection as well as insurance schemes. Adaptation schemes that aim at increasing livelihood security tend to target both vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts. Vulnerability reduction includes the diversification of income, assets and livelihoods, the improvement of infrastructure, access to technology and decision-making fora and reliance on social networks. Adaptive steps include changes in cropping, livestock and aquaculture practices that adjust to new local or regional conditions. Towards the adaptive end of the spectrum, disaster risk management plays an important role in preparing for the adverse impacts of climate change. Disaster risk management includes the installation of early warning systems, hazard and vulnerability mappings, diversification of water resources, improved drainage, flood and cyclone shelters, building codes and practices, wastewater management as well as transport and road infrastructure improvements. Ecosystem management may pursue the maintenance of wetlands and urban greens, coastal afforestation, watershed and reservoir management, reduction of other stressors on ecosystems and community-based resource management for a more sustainable use of resources. Adapt to climate change impacts Reduce vulnerability To promote Human Development, local and national authorities make efforts to improve access to education, nutrition, health facilities, energy, safe housing and settlement structures as well as social support structures. They moreover seek to reduce gender equality and marginalisation in other forms. Poverty alleviation is more specifically geared towards improving access and control of local resources for poor and marginalised people. This includes land tenure, disaster risk management, social safety nets and social protection as well as insurance schemes. Adaptation schemes that aim at increasing livelihood security tend to target both vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts. Vulnerability reduction includes the diversification of income, assets and livelihoods, the improvement of infrastructure, access to technology and decision-making fora and reliance on social networks. Adaptive steps include changes in cropping, livestock and aquaculture practices that adjust to new local or regional conditions. Towards the adaptive end of the spectrum, disaster risk management plays an important role in preparing for the adverse impacts of climate change. Disaster risk management includes the installation of early warning systems, hazard and vulnerability mappings, diversification of water resources, improved drainage, flood and cyclone shelters, building codes and practices, wastewater management as well as transport and road infrastructure improvements. Ecosystem management may pursue the maintenance of wetlands and urban greens, coastal afforestation, watershed and reservoir management, reduction of other stressors on ecosystems and community-based resource management for a more sustainable use of resources. Adapt to climate change impacts Finally, spatial or land-use planning comprises the provisioning of adequate housing, infrastructure and services, managing development in flood-prone and other high risk areas, urban planning and upgrading programmes as well as establishing protected areas. All these measures aim at adapting housing, infrastructure and urban planning to the already existing or projected impacts of climate change in a specific locale. climate change vulnerability climate change impacts climate change adaptation climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation • • • Paris Agreement climate finance technology transfer capacity building climate change GHG emissions vulnerability climate change impacts climate change mitigation climate change adaptation Paris Agreement • INDCs & review
