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Adapting to Climate Change
TACC Training Module 4
1
Objectives of the Module
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Raise awareness of the importance of adaptation in
preparing for and coping with climate change
Introduce key stages of effective adaptation
planning
Highlight the importance of multi-level governance
in adaptation actions
Introduce international support programmes and
tools to support adaptation planning
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Outline
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Scope: the 3 guiding principles
Vulnerability assessment
Impact assessment
Adaptation options
Ecosystem based and community based
adaptation
Some examples
Funds, guidance and support
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
What is Climate Change Adaptation?
“Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or humans
systems in response to actual or expected
climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates
harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”
Parry et al ,2007 (IPCC)
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
First principle
Since maintaining healthy and resilient ecosystems,
achieving development priorities and improving the
quality of life are as important as adaptation to
climate change, it is the combination of promoting
conservation and restoration of ecosystems,
development choices, adaptation actions and
capacities that will allow us to effectively address the
climate change.
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Second principle
Understanding the linkages between the impacts of a
changing climate and their implications at the local
level is more complex than is captured in spatial,
regional and global climate models. Participation of
local partners is necessary to facilitate integration of
climate impact information with local development
knowledge to create pathways that promote
resilience and adaptation to climate change.
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Third principle
Understanding adaptation as part of ecosystem
management and development requires balancing
the focus of the biophysical risks associated with
climate change with specific risks and opportunities
in order to address issues such as ecosystem and
human well-being, capacity and long-term
development.
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Steps towards adaptation options
Step1
Step 2
Capacity & Institutional assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Step 3
Impact assessment
projections and models
Step 4
Developing Adaptation options –
investigating
Step 5
Making the options relevant and useful
to the capacity and institutional needs
Step 1: Stakeholders and needs
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The assessment of vulnerability at the local and
regional levels is strongly centered on the involvement
and knowledge of a diversity of stakeholders
Key stakeholders may include community members,
policy-makers, researchers, experts, civil society and
non-governmental organizations
Stakeholders’ involvement also helps in empowering
local communities and decision-makers as they can see
themselves as valuable sources of knowledge for
developing responses to climate change
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Identify relevant stakeholders
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They are affected by climate change and/or are
living in areas of high vulnerability that could be
exaggerated by progressing climate change.
They have the information, resources or expertise
required for climate change impact and vulnerability
assessment, policy formulation and strategy
implementation.
They have control or an influence on key mechanisms
for adaptation and strategy formulation,
implementation and communication.
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Step 2: Defining vulnerability – the present
People and communities are
experiencing a number of threats
such as climate change, environmental
degradation and social and economic
changes
Impacts of these challenges interact
and cumulatively increase the
vulnerability of local and regional
areas and populations
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Vulnerability to Climate Change
Vulnerability could be described as the degree to which
human - environment systems are susceptible to, or
unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate
change, including climate variability and extremes.
It could include for example:
low-lying islands or
coastal cities; impacts on agricultural lands, forced
migration; or the mechanisms causing these impacts,
e.g., disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Vulnerability assessment
The departure point is the question:
“vulnerable to what?”
In the context of climate change, vulnerability
is a function of the character, magnitude and
rate of climate variation to which a system is
exposed, people’s sensitivity and their
adaptive capacity
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Exercise 1: Felakuti case
In the appropriate boxes, please state:
1. The socio-economic and environmental
pressures on the district of Felakuti
2. State the trends due to climate change
3. State the impacts due to climate change and
the non climatic impatcs
4. What are the available capacities to cope with
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
threats?
Climatic and non-climatic variables
Example: Human health vulnerabilities
 Outcomes of Concerns: More frequent geographically
widespread epidemics of infectious and waterborne disease
 Climatic Drivers: Climatic changes increase the area and number
of disease vectors and more frequent heavy rainfall and drought
events could disrupt water supply and sanitation
 Non-climatic drivers: Severely degraded health care system;
declining immunity, nutritional and health status of population;
high poverty rates; poor programs for disease surveillance,
vector control, and disease prevention
In: Leary and Kulkarni, 2007
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Vulnerability in the context of climate
change
Source: Allen consulting, 2005 (modified)
Exposure
Sensitivity
Driver / Pressure
Potential impacts
State
Adaptive capacity
Impact
VULNERABILITY
Adaptation responses
Response
Example
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential impacts
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability
Agricultural vulnerability to climate change is described in terms of not only
exposure to elevated temperatures, but also crop yield sensitivity to the
elevated temperatures, impacts on crop, and the adaptive capacity of
farmers to adapt to the effects of that sensitivity, e.g., by planting more
heat-resistant cultivars or by ceasing to plant their current crop altogether.
Allen consulting and Schroter et al., 2005,
Monitoring vulnerability
Vulnerability can be monitored by identifying indicators and
indices, a few examples:
State and trends
frequency of natural events (eg. floods)
Impacts and sensitivity
Population affected by natural disasters
Infrastructure, Assets
Diseases and health care delivery
Indices
Human development index, environmental vulnerability index,
coastal risk index, social vulnerability index
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Step 3: Impact assessment – the future
The guiding questions to investigate Impacts of future climate
change can be:
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What are the changes in climate variables estimated by
different climate model simulations?
What are the estimated impacts on the resources?
What are the potential consequences of estimated
impacts relevant to designing future development
activities, capacities and adaptation strategies?
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Impacts of climate change and their
assessment
The climate change impact assessments are
based on scenarios of projections of future
climate change and are presented as changes
in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise etc.
 Using available information and data, it is
possible to analyze the recent changes and
trends in climate parameters.
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Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Impact assessment – what is used?
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Global Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional
Circulation Models (RCM) are used with currently 50km
resolution
The projections are uncertain as it is a highly complex,
inter-dependent web, with possible tipping points that
we are not understanding yet.
Scenarios – official IPCC are the SRES emissions
scenarios used for projections
KEY question: what are the human and environmental
consequences?
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Step 4: Developing adaptation options
Objective: mainstreaming adaptation options into
urban planning
Key characteristics of Adaptation:
“an adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or
their effects, which moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities”
(IPCC, 2007; Adger et al)
Types and examples of adaptations
Type
Anticipatory
Reactive
Top-down
Bottom-up
Autonomous
Planned
Example
Involvement
Diversifying rainfall removal by promoting rainwater
storing, permeable surfaces and drainage pipelines
Expanding drainage infrastructure to accommodate
heavy precipitation events
Changing national standards, such as building codes,
to address changes in climate
Developing community regulation for building
construction - increased habitable spaces, increased
permeable surfaces to minimize pressure on sewage
system and flooding
Community and
personal
Community
Farmers’ decisions to change timing and planted
species based on weather changes
Changes in water resources allocation to ensure
biodiversity protection, agriculture and drinking
waters supply
National
Community and
productions systems
Individual and
community
Community,
production systems
and individual
Key characteristics of adaptation
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It involves a range of measures directed at reducing vulnerability to a
range of climatic stimuli (changes in means, variability, and extremes),
but also taking into account other non-climatic vulnerabilities so actions
on climate change won’t create or exaggerate these other
vulnerabilities;
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It shares common features with risk management;
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It is a collaborative process;
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Adaptation cannot avoid all impacts of climate change; therefore, is no
substitute for mitigation of climate change;
Adaptation options should be designed as proactive measures and in
this way help communities to create responses that prepare them for
future climatic, policy and development challenges.
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Developing adaptation options
We must aim for actions that will get us onto resilient,
low emission development pathway, which operates at
two levels:
1)The large collective decisions about structural issues
which will determine the framework within which we
adapt and mitigate
2) The cultural, social and psychological dimensions of
values, lifestyle and consumption behaviour
Robinson, et al. 2009
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Developing adaptation options
Going back to the exercise on “future” State –
develop responses to the future state.
Eg of future State could be :
Increase in minimal temperatures
Increased rainfall in spring and autumn
Increased droughts and floods
Increase epidemics of malaria, dengue and
encephalitis
What could be potential responses?
How would you prioritise these responses?
Adaptation Prioritization
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There are a number of options available for adapting to
expected climate impacts. Depending on, for example,
available capacities, cultural, social and economic
preferences, and urgency for actions adaptation options
need to be evaluated and prioritized.
Prioritizing between adaptation options based on criteria
that recognize the importance of sustainable development
also helps to realize synergies and create long-term
adaptation options.
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Prioritising adaptation options
Category
Sustainability
Effectiveness
Risk and Uncertainty
Opportunity
Implementation
Criteria
Mitigation co-benefits
Environmental impacts
Equity
Implementation Cost
Operating and Maintenance Cost
Robustness
Reliability
Urgency
Degree of risk or impact
Precautionary
Ancillary benefits
No-regret option
Window of Opportunity
Public acceptability
Funding sources
Capacity (information, technical, staff, resources)
Institutional
Scoring the criteria
Technology required Is the technology for the intervention readily available?
1 = Not available, 2 = Must be imported, 3 = Available in the country, 4 =
Locally available, 5 = Already installed
Additional running
Will the intervention incur additional running costs?
costs
1 = High costs, 2 = Medium, 3 = Low, 4 = No O&M costs
Local employment
To what extent will the intervention impact job creation?
1 = Loss of jobs , 2 = Neutral, 3 = Few jobs (<10), 4 = Many jobs (10-30)
Local capacity to
What level is the institutional capacity currently at with respect to the
implement
intervention?
1 = Very low, 2 = Low, 3 = Adequate, 4 = High
Acceptability to local What is the consumer acceptability of this intervention in terms of additional
community
cost to them and convenience?
1 = None (high additional costs) , 2 = Low (some additional costs or
inconvenient), 3 = Neutral, 4 = High (no additional costs)
Long term
What is the period of impact of the intervention? (short - long term)
applicability
1 = <2 years, 2 = 2-5 years, 3 = 5-15 years, 4 = 15-25 years, 5 = >25 years
Example of criteria for prioritisation
Using multi-criteria assessment or simpler options can be classified in
categories such as :
A = Urgent adaptation options which can be done by municipalities
themselves
B = Urgent adaptation options for which municipalities needed
assistance from the Government; options will be then allocated to
the responsible ministries
C = Options that provide a non-regret options that help to address
problems that they need to be dealt anyway
D = Adaptation options that were less important/urgent
E = Adaptation options for which there was no need or willingness
to implement
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Avoiding Mal-adaptation
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Mal-adaptation is….
 Business
as usual development
that inadvertently increases
vulnerability to climate risk
 Adaptation action that does not
succeed in reducing but
increases vulnerability
Source: Wordpress
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Both aspects of maladaptation may have
significant costs
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Step 5: Costing the adaptation option
There are two main categories of costs:
1) The cost & benefit of :
a. the adaptation option
b. non- action or delayed action
c. Maladaptation
d. Mitigation benefits
2) The cost & benefit that the ecosystem services provide:
Responding to policy needs:
Economic valuation of adaptation and ecosystem services is often
greatly needed by decision makers.
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Mainstreaming adaptation
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Climate change is not just an environmental issue – it is a
development issue.
Mainstreaming includes compromises and tradeoffs
among competing local, national and/or regional
interests and priorities.
Finally, climate change adaptation mainstreaming
processes should account for sustainable development
goals of the country at hand as well as all elements,
including local/indigenous coping strategies.
closing the cycle – some considerations
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The importance of developing adaptation options that
can be translated into a concrete management plan
and preferably costed
The importance of aligning the adaptation plan to the
National Communications, National Adaptation Plans of
Action, and the municipal development strategies
The importance of presenting the information in a way
that is useful to the policy makers: communication!
Importance of Multi-Level Adaptation
Planning (Vertical Integration)
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Involvement of multiple levels of governance in
development planning requires co-ordination
Division of competence between national and subnational level varies among countries
National, sub-national and local adaptation action
needs to be mutually supportive
Action should be taken at the most appropriate level
Subsidiary principle
encourages action at the lowest level of governance
whenever possible
 recognizes the importance for some action at higher level
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Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Evaluating the Success of Adaptation
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Evaluating success of adaptation creates challenges
Long time horizon of measures
 Climate scenarios may be different than expected
 Need to wait for ex post evaluation (e.g. measure to adapt
to infrequent event can only be evaluated if event occurred)
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Possible to evaluate
extent a policy objective was achieved (e.g. reduction of
vulnerability)
 if anticipated co-benefits were achieved
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Monitoring and evaluation may help in spotting maladaptation
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Some more examples…
Considering Ecosystems and
Ecosystem-based Adaptation
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Use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to support an
overall adaptation strategy
Aims to maintain and increase the resilience and services of
ecosystems
Generates social, economic and cultural co-benefits (e.g.
conservation of biodiversity, preservation of traditional
knowledge systems)
Has climate change mitigation potential (e.g. sequestration of
carbon through healthy forests, wetlands, and coastal
ecosystems)
EBA is cross-cutting and likely to involve different levels of
governance
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Examples of Ecosystem-Based
Adaptation
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Maintaining or restoring mangroves, coral reefs and
watershed vegetation reduces vulnerability to storm surge,
rising sea levels and changing precipitation patterns
Enhancing availability of natural resources as a source of
food important to livelihoods
Supporting indigenous peoples to enhance traditional
knowledge and management practices in light of a changing
climate condition
Maintaining connectivity of ecosystems, e.g. through corridors
allowing migration of animals in response to a climate change
stress
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Community-based Adaptation (CBA)
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CBA involves community-driven processes to
consider and cope with climate change
Balances climate considerations with other
factors (e.g. unemployment, conflict)
Draws upon community knowledge (e.g. past
strategies to cope with shocks)
Takes into account local priorities, needs,
knowledge, and capacities
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Community-based Adaptation (CBA)
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CBA involves community-driven processes to
consider and cope with climate change
Balances climate considerations with other
factors (e.g. unemployment, conflict)
Draws upon community knowledge (e.g. past
strategies to cope with shocks)
Takes into account local priorities, needs,
knowledge, and capacities
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
The Case of Rainfall in Kitui,
Kenya
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Exposure
Source: Travel Pod
 The
already arid area of Kitui, likely to receive less water
in the future
 Rains are no longer reliable and droughts may last longer
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Sensitivity
 Less
drinking water available
 Reduced crops due to lack of irrigation
 Loss of income and increased poverty
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Adaptive Capacity
 Travelling
large distances to collect fresh water not viable
 Moving of population to other areas not possible
 Technology not available for digging a deep well
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
The Case of Coastal Zone
Management in the Netherlands
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Exposure
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The Netherlands are already below sea level with dykes holding
back the North Sea
Increased sea level increase risks of coastal inundation and erosion
Existing dykes may no longer be effective against higher sea levels
Sensitivity
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A breach of Dykes would result in
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Source: Free
Photo.com
Loss of land
Damage to crops
Damage to habitats and communities
Adaptive Capacity
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Funds available to implement adaption measures (e.g. increase
height of dams)
Skills and equipment available
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
The Case of Tropical Storms
in Jamaica
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Exposure
Source:
USA Today
The Caribbean already exposed to tropical storms
 Storms projected to increase in intensity and frequency
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Sensitivity
Increase of intensive storms may result in additional damage to
crops
 Soil erosion can follow damage to farm land
 Loss of income and food security
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Adaptive Capacity
Local community have some resources to deal with impacts
 Limited technology and physical resources to prevent future
damage
 Availability of labour and some financial resources
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Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
The Case of Mainstreaming
Adaptation in China’s Agricultural Sector
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Climate change traditionally not included in China’s
agricultural planning processes
Project initiated in 2004 to integrate climate change
adaptation into China’s Agricultural Development
Programme
Supporting measures include
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Capacity development
Monitoring and evaluation
Partners involved
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Government of China
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State Office for Comprehensive Agricultural Development
National Development and Reform Commission
Ministry of Finance
World Bank/Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
UNFCCC-GEF Funding to Support
Adaptation: A Snapshot
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Least Development Countries Fund (LDCF)
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Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)
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Address the vulnerability and low adaptive capacity of of Least Developed
Countries
Supported by National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA)
Supports adaptation, technology transfer, and sectoral strategies
Addresses special needs of developing countries for long-term adaptation
with priorities given to health, agriculture, water and vulnerable ecosystems
The Adaptation Fund
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Funded through voluntary contributions and proceedings generated through
the Clean Development Mechanisms
Open to Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Guidance on Adaptation
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UNDP Screening Tools and Guidelines to Support the
Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation into
Development Assistance – A Stock-taking Report (2010)
UNFCCC Guidelines for the Preparation of National
Adaptation Programmes of Action (2002)
OECD Guidance on Integrating Climate Change
Adaptation into Development Co-operation (2009)
USAID Climate Change Adaptation Manual
UNEP VIA methodology (presented in this presentation)
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1
Support Services and Platforms
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GEF-UNDP Adaptation
Learning Mechanism
(http://www.adaptationlearn
ing.net)
WeAdapt
(http://wikiadapt.org)
UN CC:Learn (uncclearn.org)
www.uneporg/ieacp/climate
[email protected]
Source: Sussex communigate
Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1