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LAYOUT10GB 5/02/03 8:35 Page 3 CLIMATE RESEARCH IN FRANCE 2 0 03 Our abilility to understand and predict climate has become critically important, due to the perturbation of climate by human activities and the growing human and economic interests at stake. Scientists were the first to draw policy-makers’ attention to the likelihood of climate change linked to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The latest studies confirm that most of the global warming observed over the last fifty years is attributable to human activities. This document presents the most significant results obtained during the last ten years by the approximately 900 scientists in the field of climate research in France, and lists projects for the next five years. This research contributes to the international effort developed under the World Climate Research Programme and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. LAYOUT10GB 5/02/03 8:35 Page 4 THE MAJOR BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES Human disruption of the major biogeochemical cycles raise many questions. How will CO2 concentration evolve? What role do aerosols play? How will climate warming modify these major cycles? What impact will it have on ecosystems and natural and living resources? The French climate research community has played a major role in three fields: Observation and modeling of carbon cycle perturbations, through their observatory network; through the international programme for intercomparison of models simulating the oceanic phase of the carbon cycle ; through study of the interactions between marine biomass and oceanic carbon, and between terrestrial biomass and continental carbon; through the study of the variability of carbon sources and sinks; and, lastly, through modeling of the coupling of the carbon cycle with climate. ■ Aerosol measurement campaigns in Africa and Asia to evaluate the natural emissions of gases and particles from different ecosystems; studies of the mineral aerosols in desert or semi-arid zones and of the carbon particles of natural or anthropogenic origin (fossil fuels and biomass). ■ Measurement campaigns in the Arctic for a better understanding of the processes involved in stratospheric ozone depletion. ■ POMME - A FRENCH MULTDISCIPLINARY MESOSCALE OCEAN PROGRAMME IN 2001 OVER ONE HUNDRED OCEANOGRAPHERS – PHYSICISTS, BIOLOGISTS, CHEMISTS – AND METEOROLOGISTS CAME TOGETHER TO STUDY THE ROLE OF EDDIES IN THE FUNCTIONING OF THE MARINE ECOSYSTEM AND OF THE CARBON CYCLE, THROUGH FOUR LARGE-SCALE CAMPAIGNS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOURCE: CNRS STUDIES OF SAHARAN DUST TRAILS VIA METEOSAT SHOW THAT THE FLUX OF DUST TOWARDS EUROPE VARIES WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION: THE FLUX IS INTENSIFIED DURING THE POSITIVE PHASES OF THE NAO. SOURCE: LSCE REPROBUS MODEL SIMULATION OF OZONE AND ITS DEPLETION IN THE ARCTIC STRATOSPHERE, USING MÉTÉOFRANCE’S PHOTOCHEMICAL REPROBUS MODEL, CORRESPONDING TO THE SITUATION ON 16TH JANUARY 2000 DURING THE THESEO CAMPAIGN. SOURCE: CNRS CURRENT PROJECTS Interactions between climate change and marine to understand how the living communities in the biosphere at every scale, with special focus on CO2 biogeochemical cycles ocean react to modifications in their environment sink-source functions, nitrogen and water flow Research programmmes focus chiefly on CO2 flux at and, in turn, affect these cycles. Current studies and energy and matter exchanges. The impact the air-sea interface, on the effect of deposits of desert concern the role of bio-diversity, the factors of climate change on transfer of elements between dust on the sea surface, on the cycle of climate- controlling oceanic fertility, transfer processes within compartments, and on the eco-dynamics of impacting gases (sulfur compounds in particular), and the ocean, and the role of food web dynamics. contaminants, will also be a priority, to be developed on the impact of UV radiation on the upper ocean. through a pluridisciplinary approach that will include Interactions between climate change and the Interactions between climate change and marine continental biosphere ecosystems At stake in research on the continental domain In order to understand the feedbacks between is an understanding of integrated functioning, oceanic biogeochemical cycles and climate, we need of modeling, and of the evolution of the continental long-term observation and experimentation. LAYOUT10GB 5/02/03 8:35 Page 5 CLIMATE VARIABILITY The world's climate is characterized by strong and structured modes of variability. What is their nature? How predictable are they? What variations have occurred in the past? What role have the various components of climate played in these variations? Research has concentrated on three aspects so far: Extending our knowledge of global oceanic circulation, thanks to our participation in WOCE (World Ocean Circulation Experiment), through a series of oceanographic campaigns in the South Atlantic and the Indian Ocean, as well as through observations from space, notably from the Franco-American TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. ■ Understanding El Nino, by measurements carried out within the framework of TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere), by the implementation of an ocean general circulation model and by a significant effort in the development of synthesis studies combining models and observations. ■ Reconstructing past climates: outstanding points have been ice coring in Antarctica and Greenland, marine sediments coring, synthesis of pollen data from Europe and Africa, coordinating the paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project and studying the recent evolution of climate in France. ■ 31 MARCH 1997 30 APRIL 1997 29 JUNE 1997 05 NOVEMBER 1997 SEA LEVEL CHANGE (CM) MINIMALS MAXIMALS ABOVE: THE FRANCO-AMERICAN TOPEX/POSEIDON SATELLITE HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO MAP VARIATIONS IN SEA LEVEL WITH CENTIMETRE ACCURACY DURING THE 97-98 EL NINO EPISODE. SOURCE: LEGOS BELOW: WARMING AVERAGED OVER FRANCE: TENDENCIES 1901-2000 (IN °C/CENTURY), BASED ON 70 SERIES OF HOMOGENIZED TEMPERATURES. EVOLUTION OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LEFT, OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT RIGHT. SOURCE: CNRM UPPER RIGHT: DATA FROM VOSTOK LOWER RIGHT: AIR BUBBLES TRAPPED IN ICE THE FRANCO-RUSSIAN DRILLING OPERATION AT VOSTOK IN ANTARCTICA HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO RECONSTRUCT THE EVOLUTION IN GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS OVER THE LAST 400,000 YEARS, THUS MAKING A UNIQUE CONTRIBUTION TO UNDERSTANDING OF THEIR ROLE IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATIC SYSTEM. SOURCE: LGGE CURRENT PROJECTS Mechanisms of climate variability Paleoclimates The African monsoon: a project coordinated Many questions remain unanswered. The current Since we have no precise knowledge of the causes, by the French community projects of the French climate community focus amplitude and regional distribution of climate system The aim of the international AMMA project – African chiefly on: the variability of the North Atlantic variability before the beginning of the industrial age, Monsoon-Multidisciplinary Analyses – is to achieve Oscillation, its interactions with the ocean an effort is being undertaken to obtain quantitative a better understanding of the mechanisms and its role in climate variability in Europe; climatic series, particularly concerning the continents. of the summer monsoon in West Africa and of its the tropical regions, notably the role of oceanic The objective is to quantify the average regimes as components : the atmospheric dynamics, the variability, the importance of teleconnections well as the climatic extremes of recent centuries, continental water cycle, the atmospheric chemistry, and the variability of the African monsoon; the role with a resolution of approximately one season and the surface conditions of ocean and continent. of the Southern Ocean in planetary-scale climate or one year. Similarly, the mechanisms of transition Phases of intensive field observations are integrated dynamics. and rapid climate variations occurring during recent in long-term observations that will lead to a better climatic cycles are subjects of intense research. understanding of monsoon variability. LAYOUT10GB 5/02/03 8:35 Page 6 CLIMATE CHANGE The perceptible impact of human activities poses new problems. How will the climate evolve over the next hundred years? How much will the sea level rise? What will be the state of the earth’s water resources? What will regional climatic conditions be? And what will be the impacts on agriculture, and on other sectors of the economy? How will the frequency of extreme weather events evolve? Research efforts have concentrated mainly on two topics: Prediction of climate change, using two global models. The French community has contributed to key points, such as weather regimes, the radiative effect of aerosols, the representation of interactive clouds in models, water vapour feedback, radiative balance measurements, coupling between climate and the carbon cycle, impacts on the hydrology of catchment basins, especially for the Rhône river. ■ The stakes in international negotiations related to the Kyoto Protocol, notably quantifying an emissions trading regime, devising economic models to assist decision-making, and evaluating potential for carbon sequestration, especially assessment of various agroforestry practices. ■ SURFACE WARMING (°C) CLIMATE IMPACT ON CARBON SINKS (gC/m2/yr) ▲ RESPONSE OF ALPINE RIVER HYDROLOGY TO CLIMATE CHANGE (FORECASTS FOR 6 SCENARIOS) FOR THE DECADE 2050-2060: THE JUNE FLOOD PEAK IS BROUGHT FORWARD TO MAY (EARLIER SNOWMELT) AND THE WINTER RATE OF FLOW INCREASES (HIGHER RAINFALL). BLUE: OBSERVATIONS; RED: SIMULATION OF PRESENT DAY CONDITIONS; YELLOW : FUTURE SCENARIOS. SOURCE: CNRM ▲ CLIMATE WARMING BETWEEN 1850 AND 2100, IN A SCENARIO OF RISING CO2 LEVELS, SIMULATED USING THE CLIMATE MODEL OF THE PIERRE SIMON LAPLACE INSTITUTE. THIS SIMULATION, WHICH COUPLES CLIMATE AND THE CARBON CYCLE, SHOWS THAT CLIMATE WARMING ATTENUATES OCEANIC AND CONTINENTAL CARBON SINKS, LEADING TO A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN WARMING. SOURCE: IPSL CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION (MM/DAY) IN EUROPE AT THE END OF THE 21ST CENTURY, IN A SCENARIO OF RISING CO2 LEVELS, USING THE STRETCHABLE GRID VERSION OF THE ARPEGE CLIMATE MODEL OF MÉTÉO FRANCE, SHOWING AN INCREASE IN WINTER RAINFALL AND DECREASE IN SUMMER RAINFALL IN WESTERN EUROPE. SOURCE: CNRM DURANCE AT LACLAPIERE (2170 km2) MONTHLY DISCHARGE 100 m3s-1 50 A S O N D J F M A M J J CURRENT PROJECTS Towards integrated modeling role in the future of the planet. To facilitate (direct impacts, risks of water shortage, indirect Integrating the full complexity of the system is international negotiations, economists and climate- economic consequences), on biodiversity, on the essential for successful climate forecasting. To modelers are also beginning to develop integrated insurance sector... better evaluate the climate risks resulting from physico-economic models. human activities, climate models must integrate not Emission reduction strategies only the ocean and the atmosphere, but also The impact of climate change These strategies must be studied in depth and continental and oceanic ice, biogeochemical cycles, Regionalizing climate change and studying the in detail, on both French and European levels, troposphere and stratosphere chemistry, biology and possible changes in extreme events are through research in the fields of transport, industry, marine biochemistry, as well as continental preconditions for assessing the impact of climate the building trade, agriculture and town and biosphere. A new challenge will be how to take changes on health, on hydrology, on areas inhabited country planning. account of the management of human activities, and equipped by human societies (in particular which seem well on the way to playing a decisive littoral zones), on agriculture and livestock farming LAYOUT10GB 5/02/03 8:34 Page 1 NATIONAL RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURES Climate study requires an approach that combines field campaigns, observations - from the ground, in the oceans, and from space - and modeling. The different national research organizations make oceanographic boats and buoys, research planes, balloons, satellites and high-performance computing facilities available to researchers. THE SEA-LEVEL MONITORING SATELLITE JASON-1 ENABLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY BY COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DATA, IN-SITU DATA (FROM THE CORIOLIS PROGRAMME) AND DATA ASSIMILATION AND MODELING IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE MERCATOR PROJECT. SOURCE: CNES SINCE THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR SPATIAL STUDIES (CNES) PARTICIPATED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST METEOSAT (IN THE 1970’S), NUMEROUS SPACE PROJECTS RUN BY THE CNES HAVE PLAYED THEIR ROLE IN CLIMATE STUDY: EARTH’S RADIATIVE BUDGET (SCARAB INSTRUMENT), STUDY OF CLOUDS, AEROSOLS AND SEAWATER COLOUR (POLDER), ALTIMETRY ABOVE THE OCEANS (TOPEX-POSEIDON, JASON), MICROPHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF CLOUDS AND AEROSOLS (CALYPSO), STRATOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY (ODIN, ENVISAT). ▼ RESEARCH IN POLAR REGIONS - THE FRENCH POLAR INSTITUTE PAUL-EMILE VICTOR (IPEV) IMPLEMENTS RESEARCH PROGRAMMES IN THE POLAR REGIONS. HIGHLY SPECIFIC FACILITIES, SUCH AS THE CONCORDIA STATION (COBUILT WITH ITALY), AND THE MARION DUFRESNE RESEARCH SHIP ARE AT THE DISPOSITION OF THE COMMUNITY, WHICH CAN THUS PARTICIPATE IN INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS SUCH AS DEEP ICE DRILLING EPICA AT DOME C AND IMAGE SEDIMENT CORING CAMPAIGNS. SOURCE: IPEV ▼ CO2 ZOOM MOZAIC SSS IDAF CO2 CLOUDS CATCH G PIRATA 03 STRATO G GLACIERS G 03 STRATO SSS G SSS SSS DYFAMED C02 OCEAN CO2 SL S SL 03 STRATO SSS SL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH OBSERVATORIES France has set up a structure of observatories : * G: AEROSOL ROBOTIC NETWORK GLACIERS to acquire data over a long period F: FLOODS (at least ten years), which feed networks SL : SEA LEVEL (ROSAME / GLOBAL SEA LEVEL OBSERVING SYSTEM) and data bases, most of them international. S: SULFUR ATMOSPHERIC CYCLE (CESOA) SSS : SEA SURFACE SALINITY CO : ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION (RAMCES / WMO) 22 CO OCEAN : ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN FLUX (CARAUS) O STRATO : NETWORK OF DETECTION OF STRATOSPHERIC CHANGE CATCH / AMMA : COUPLING TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE/ HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE IDAF / DEBITS : DEPOSITION OF IMPORTANT BIOGEOCHEMICAL TRACE SPECIES DYFAMED : DYNAMICS OF ATMOPHERIC FLUXES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA MOZAIC : MEASUREMENTS OF O , H O VAPOR, CO, NO , ABOARD AIRBUS IN SERVICE CRAFT PIRATA : PILOT RESEARCH MOORED ARRAY IN THE TROPICAL OCEAN 2 3 3 2 X SL S C02 OCEAN LAYOUT10GB 5/02/03 8:34 Page 2 RESEARCH PARTNERS Climate research requires a pluridisciplinary approach structured through national programmes managed by the National institute for the sciences of the universe, ministry of Ecology and Sustainable development and the Interministerial mission on the greenhouse effect together with Concerted incentive actions set up by the “Ministère délégué à la Recherche et aux Nouvelles technologies”. THE FOLLOWING MAJOR NATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAMMES... ECLIPSE – Past environment and climate: history and evolution GICC – Management and impact of climate change PNEDC – National programme of climate dynamics PATOM – Mid-Scale Atmosphere and Ocean Programme PROOF – Biogeochemical processes in ocean and fluxes PNCA – National programme of atmospheric chemistry PNRH – National programme in hydrology research PNTS – National programme of space teledetection ...CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMES WCRP - World Climate Research Programme http://www.wmo.ch.web/wcrp IGBP - International Geosphere Biosphere Programme http://www.igbp.kva.se/ CLIVAR - GEWEX - SPARC WOCE - TOGA PAGES - JGOFS SUIVI DE OCEANS SOLAS - GAIM - IGAC - START PARTNER ORGANIZATIONS CEA Atomic Energy Commission • CEMAGREF Research Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Engineering • CNES National Center for Space Research • CNRS National Center for Scientific Research • IFREMER French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea • INRA National Institute for Agronomic Research • IRD Research Institute for Development • MÉTÉO FRANCE • SHOM French Naval Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service • UNIVERSITIES FUNDING AGENCIES INSU National Institute for the Sciences of the Universe • IPEV French Polar Institute Paul-Emile Victor PUBLIC INTEREST GROUPS GIP MEDIAS French Support Office for Regional Research in the Mediterranean Basin and Subtropical Africa GIP MERCATOR-OCEAN Operational Oceanography Development with the support of ADEME, EDF, TOTALFINAELF