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CLIMATE RESEARCH
IN FRANCE 2 0
03
Our abilility to understand and predict climate has become critically important,
due to the perturbation of climate by human activities and the growing human
and economic interests at stake. Scientists were the first to draw policy-makers’
attention to the likelihood of climate change linked to anthropogenic emissions
of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The latest studies confirm that most of the global
warming observed over the last fifty years is attributable to human activities.
This document presents the most significant results obtained during the last ten
years by the approximately 900 scientists in the field of climate research in France,
and lists projects for the next five years. This research contributes to the
international effort developed under the World Climate Research Programme
and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme.
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THE MAJOR BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
Human disruption of the major biogeochemical cycles raise many questions. How will CO2 concentration evolve?
What role do aerosols play? How will climate warming modify these major cycles? What impact will it have on ecosystems
and natural and living resources? The French climate research community has played a major role in three fields:
Observation and modeling of carbon cycle perturbations, through their observatory network; through the international programme for
intercomparison of models simulating the oceanic phase of the carbon cycle ; through study of the interactions between marine biomass and oceanic
carbon, and between terrestrial biomass and continental carbon; through the study of the variability of carbon sources and sinks; and, lastly,
through modeling of the coupling of the carbon cycle with climate. ■ Aerosol measurement campaigns in Africa and Asia to evaluate the natural
emissions of gases and particles from different ecosystems; studies of the mineral aerosols in desert or semi-arid zones and of the carbon particles
of natural or anthropogenic origin (fossil fuels and biomass). ■ Measurement campaigns in the Arctic for a better understanding of the processes
involved in stratospheric ozone depletion.
■
POMME - A FRENCH MULTDISCIPLINARY MESOSCALE
OCEAN PROGRAMME
IN 2001 OVER ONE HUNDRED OCEANOGRAPHERS
– PHYSICISTS, BIOLOGISTS, CHEMISTS –
AND METEOROLOGISTS CAME TOGETHER TO STUDY
THE ROLE OF EDDIES IN THE FUNCTIONING OF THE MARINE
ECOSYSTEM AND OF THE CARBON CYCLE, THROUGH FOUR
LARGE-SCALE CAMPAIGNS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. SOURCE: CNRS
STUDIES OF SAHARAN DUST TRAILS VIA METEOSAT
SHOW THAT THE FLUX OF DUST TOWARDS EUROPE
VARIES WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION:
THE FLUX IS INTENSIFIED DURING THE POSITIVE
PHASES OF THE NAO. SOURCE: LSCE
REPROBUS MODEL
SIMULATION OF OZONE AND ITS DEPLETION
IN THE ARCTIC STRATOSPHERE, USING MÉTÉOFRANCE’S PHOTOCHEMICAL REPROBUS MODEL,
CORRESPONDING TO THE SITUATION ON
16TH JANUARY 2000 DURING THE THESEO
CAMPAIGN. SOURCE: CNRS
CURRENT PROJECTS
Interactions between climate change and marine
to understand how the living communities in the
biosphere at every scale, with special focus on CO2
biogeochemical cycles
ocean react to modifications in their environment
sink-source functions, nitrogen and water flow
Research programmmes focus chiefly on CO2 flux at
and, in turn, affect these cycles. Current studies
and energy and matter exchanges. The impact
the air-sea interface, on the effect of deposits of desert
concern the role of bio-diversity, the factors
of climate change on transfer of elements between
dust on the sea surface, on the cycle of climate-
controlling oceanic fertility, transfer processes within
compartments, and on the eco-dynamics of
impacting gases (sulfur compounds in particular), and
the ocean, and the role of food web dynamics.
contaminants, will also be a priority, to be developed
on the impact of UV radiation on the upper ocean.
through a pluridisciplinary approach that will include
Interactions between climate change and the
Interactions between climate change and marine
continental biosphere
ecosystems
At stake in research on the continental domain
In order to understand the feedbacks between
is an understanding of integrated functioning,
oceanic biogeochemical cycles and climate, we need
of modeling, and of the evolution of the continental
long-term observation and experimentation.
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CLIMATE VARIABILITY
The world's climate is characterized by strong and structured modes of variability. What is their nature? How
predictable are they? What variations have occurred in the past? What role have the various components of climate
played in these variations? Research has concentrated on three aspects so far:
Extending our knowledge of global oceanic circulation, thanks to our participation in WOCE (World Ocean Circulation Experiment),
through a series of oceanographic campaigns in the South Atlantic and the Indian Ocean, as well as through observations from space, notably
from the Franco-American TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. ■ Understanding El Nino, by measurements carried out within the framework of TOGA
(Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere), by the implementation of an ocean general circulation model and by a significant effort in the development
of synthesis studies combining models and observations. ■ Reconstructing past climates: outstanding points have been ice coring in Antarctica
and Greenland, marine sediments coring, synthesis of pollen data from Europe and Africa, coordinating the paleoclimate modeling intercomparison
project and studying the recent evolution of climate in France.
■
31 MARCH 1997
30 APRIL 1997
29 JUNE 1997
05 NOVEMBER 1997
SEA LEVEL CHANGE (CM)
MINIMALS
MAXIMALS
ABOVE: THE FRANCO-AMERICAN TOPEX/POSEIDON SATELLITE
HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO MAP VARIATIONS IN SEA LEVEL
WITH CENTIMETRE ACCURACY DURING THE 97-98 EL NINO
EPISODE. SOURCE: LEGOS
BELOW: WARMING AVERAGED OVER FRANCE:
TENDENCIES 1901-2000 (IN °C/CENTURY), BASED ON 70
SERIES OF HOMOGENIZED TEMPERATURES. EVOLUTION
OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LEFT, OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT RIGHT. SOURCE: CNRM
UPPER RIGHT: DATA FROM VOSTOK
LOWER RIGHT: AIR BUBBLES TRAPPED IN ICE
THE FRANCO-RUSSIAN DRILLING OPERATION
AT VOSTOK IN ANTARCTICA HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE
TO RECONSTRUCT THE EVOLUTION
IN GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS OVER
THE LAST 400,000 YEARS, THUS MAKING A
UNIQUE CONTRIBUTION TO UNDERSTANDING
OF THEIR ROLE IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATIC
SYSTEM. SOURCE: LGGE
CURRENT PROJECTS
Mechanisms of climate variability
Paleoclimates
The African monsoon: a project coordinated
Many questions remain unanswered. The current
Since we have no precise knowledge of the causes,
by the French community
projects of the French climate community focus
amplitude and regional distribution of climate system
The aim of the international AMMA project – African
chiefly on: the variability of the North Atlantic
variability before the beginning of the industrial age,
Monsoon-Multidisciplinary Analyses – is to achieve
Oscillation, its interactions with the ocean
an effort is being undertaken to obtain quantitative
a better understanding of the mechanisms
and its role in climate variability in Europe;
climatic series, particularly concerning the continents.
of the summer monsoon in West Africa and of its
the tropical regions, notably the role of oceanic
The objective is to quantify the average regimes as
components : the atmospheric dynamics, the
variability, the importance of teleconnections
well as the climatic extremes of recent centuries,
continental water cycle, the atmospheric chemistry,
and the variability of the African monsoon; the role
with a resolution of approximately one season
and the surface conditions of ocean and continent.
of the Southern Ocean in planetary-scale climate
or one year. Similarly, the mechanisms of transition
Phases of intensive field observations are integrated
dynamics.
and rapid climate variations occurring during recent
in long-term observations that will lead to a better
climatic cycles are subjects of intense research.
understanding of monsoon variability.
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CLIMATE CHANGE
The perceptible impact of human activities poses new problems. How will the climate evolve over the next hundred
years? How much will the sea level rise? What will be the state of the earth’s water resources? What will regional
climatic conditions be? And what will be the impacts on agriculture, and on other sectors of the economy? How will
the frequency of extreme weather events evolve? Research efforts have concentrated mainly on two topics:
Prediction of climate change, using two global models. The French community has contributed to key points, such as weather regimes,
the radiative effect of aerosols, the representation of interactive clouds in models, water vapour feedback, radiative balance measurements,
coupling between climate and the carbon cycle, impacts on the hydrology of catchment basins, especially for the Rhône river.
■ The stakes in international negotiations related to the Kyoto Protocol, notably quantifying an emissions trading regime, devising economic
models to assist decision-making, and evaluating potential for carbon sequestration, especially assessment of various agroforestry practices.
■
SURFACE WARMING (°C)
CLIMATE IMPACT ON CARBON SINKS (gC/m2/yr)
▲
RESPONSE OF ALPINE RIVER HYDROLOGY TO
CLIMATE CHANGE (FORECASTS FOR 6 SCENARIOS)
FOR THE DECADE 2050-2060: THE JUNE FLOOD
PEAK IS BROUGHT FORWARD TO MAY (EARLIER
SNOWMELT) AND THE WINTER RATE
OF FLOW INCREASES (HIGHER RAINFALL). BLUE:
OBSERVATIONS; RED: SIMULATION OF PRESENT
DAY CONDITIONS; YELLOW : FUTURE SCENARIOS.
SOURCE: CNRM
▲
CLIMATE WARMING BETWEEN 1850 AND 2100,
IN A SCENARIO OF RISING CO2 LEVELS,
SIMULATED USING THE CLIMATE MODEL OF
THE PIERRE SIMON LAPLACE INSTITUTE.
THIS SIMULATION, WHICH COUPLES CLIMATE
AND THE CARBON CYCLE, SHOWS THAT CLIMATE
WARMING ATTENUATES OCEANIC
AND CONTINENTAL CARBON SINKS, LEADING
TO A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN WARMING.
SOURCE: IPSL
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION (MM/DAY) IN EUROPE AT THE END
OF THE 21ST CENTURY, IN A SCENARIO OF RISING CO2 LEVELS,
USING THE STRETCHABLE GRID VERSION OF THE ARPEGE
CLIMATE MODEL OF MÉTÉO FRANCE, SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN WINTER RAINFALL AND DECREASE IN SUMMER RAINFALL
IN WESTERN EUROPE. SOURCE: CNRM
DURANCE AT LACLAPIERE (2170 km2)
MONTHLY DISCHARGE
100
m3s-1
50
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F
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CURRENT PROJECTS
Towards integrated modeling
role in the future of the planet. To facilitate
(direct impacts, risks of water shortage, indirect
Integrating the full complexity of the system is
international negotiations, economists and climate-
economic consequences), on biodiversity, on the
essential for successful climate forecasting. To
modelers are also beginning to develop integrated
insurance sector...
better evaluate the climate risks resulting from
physico-economic models.
human activities, climate models must integrate not
Emission reduction strategies
only the ocean and the atmosphere, but also
The impact of climate change
These strategies must be studied in depth and
continental and oceanic ice, biogeochemical cycles,
Regionalizing climate change and studying the
in detail, on both French and European levels,
troposphere and stratosphere chemistry, biology and
possible changes in extreme events are
through research in the fields of transport, industry,
marine biochemistry, as well as continental
preconditions for assessing the impact of climate
the building trade, agriculture and town and
biosphere. A new challenge will be how to take
changes on health, on hydrology, on areas inhabited
country planning.
account of the management of human activities,
and equipped by human societies (in particular
which seem well on the way to playing a decisive
littoral zones), on agriculture and livestock farming
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NATIONAL RESEARCH
INFRASTRUCTURES
Climate study requires an approach that combines field campaigns, observations - from the ground, in the oceans,
and from space - and modeling. The different national research organizations make oceanographic boats and buoys,
research planes, balloons, satellites and high-performance computing facilities available to researchers.
THE SEA-LEVEL MONITORING SATELLITE JASON-1
ENABLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF OPERATIONAL
OCEANOGRAPHY BY COMBINATION OF SATELLITE
DATA, IN-SITU DATA (FROM THE CORIOLIS
PROGRAMME) AND DATA ASSIMILATION AND
MODELING IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE
MERCATOR PROJECT. SOURCE: CNES
SINCE THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR SPATIAL STUDIES (CNES)
PARTICIPATED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST METEOSAT
(IN THE 1970’S), NUMEROUS SPACE PROJECTS RUN BY THE
CNES HAVE PLAYED THEIR ROLE IN CLIMATE STUDY: EARTH’S
RADIATIVE BUDGET (SCARAB INSTRUMENT), STUDY OF
CLOUDS, AEROSOLS AND SEAWATER COLOUR (POLDER),
ALTIMETRY ABOVE THE OCEANS (TOPEX-POSEIDON, JASON),
MICROPHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF CLOUDS AND AEROSOLS
(CALYPSO), STRATOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY (ODIN, ENVISAT).
▼
RESEARCH IN POLAR REGIONS - THE FRENCH POLAR
INSTITUTE PAUL-EMILE VICTOR (IPEV) IMPLEMENTS RESEARCH
PROGRAMMES IN THE POLAR REGIONS. HIGHLY SPECIFIC
FACILITIES, SUCH AS THE CONCORDIA STATION (COBUILT WITH
ITALY), AND THE MARION DUFRESNE RESEARCH SHIP ARE
AT THE DISPOSITION OF THE COMMUNITY, WHICH CAN THUS
PARTICIPATE IN INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS SUCH AS DEEP ICE
DRILLING EPICA AT DOME C AND IMAGE SEDIMENT CORING
CAMPAIGNS. SOURCE: IPEV
▼
CO2
ZOOM
MOZAIC
SSS
IDAF
CO2
CLOUDS
CATCH
G
PIRATA
03 STRATO
G
GLACIERS
G
03 STRATO
SSS
G
SSS
SSS
DYFAMED
C02 OCEAN
CO2
SL
S
SL
03 STRATO
SSS
SL
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH OBSERVATORIES
France has set up a structure of observatories
:
*
G:
AEROSOL ROBOTIC NETWORK
GLACIERS
to acquire data over a long period
F:
FLOODS
(at least ten years), which feed networks
SL :
SEA LEVEL (ROSAME / GLOBAL SEA LEVEL
OBSERVING SYSTEM)
and data bases, most of them international.
S:
SULFUR ATMOSPHERIC CYCLE (CESOA)
SSS :
SEA SURFACE SALINITY
CO :
ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION (RAMCES / WMO)
22
CO OCEAN :
ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN FLUX (CARAUS)
O STRATO :
NETWORK OF DETECTION OF STRATOSPHERIC
CHANGE
CATCH / AMMA :
COUPLING TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE/
HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
IDAF / DEBITS :
DEPOSITION OF IMPORTANT BIOGEOCHEMICAL
TRACE SPECIES
DYFAMED :
DYNAMICS OF ATMOPHERIC FLUXES IN THE
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
MOZAIC :
MEASUREMENTS OF O , H O VAPOR, CO, NO ,
ABOARD AIRBUS IN SERVICE CRAFT
PIRATA :
PILOT RESEARCH MOORED ARRAY IN THE
TROPICAL OCEAN
2
3
3
2
X
SL
S
C02 OCEAN
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RESEARCH PARTNERS
Climate research requires a pluridisciplinary approach structured through national programmes managed by
the National institute for the sciences of the universe, ministry of Ecology and Sustainable development and the
Interministerial mission on the greenhouse effect together with Concerted incentive actions set up by the “Ministère
délégué à la Recherche et aux Nouvelles technologies”.
THE FOLLOWING MAJOR NATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAMMES...
ECLIPSE – Past environment and climate: history and evolution
GICC – Management and impact of climate change
PNEDC – National programme of climate dynamics
PATOM – Mid-Scale Atmosphere and Ocean Programme
PROOF – Biogeochemical processes in ocean and fluxes
PNCA – National programme of atmospheric chemistry
PNRH – National programme in hydrology research
PNTS – National programme of space teledetection
...CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMES
WCRP - World Climate Research Programme
http://www.wmo.ch.web/wcrp
IGBP - International Geosphere Biosphere Programme
http://www.igbp.kva.se/
CLIVAR - GEWEX - SPARC
WOCE - TOGA
PAGES - JGOFS SUIVI DE OCEANS
SOLAS - GAIM - IGAC - START
PARTNER ORGANIZATIONS
CEA Atomic Energy Commission • CEMAGREF Research Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Engineering •
CNES National Center for Space Research • CNRS National Center for Scientific Research • IFREMER French
Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea • INRA National Institute for Agronomic Research • IRD Research
Institute for Development • MÉTÉO FRANCE • SHOM French Naval Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service •
UNIVERSITIES
FUNDING AGENCIES
INSU National Institute for the Sciences of the Universe • IPEV French Polar Institute Paul-Emile Victor
PUBLIC INTEREST GROUPS
GIP MEDIAS French Support Office for Regional Research in the Mediterranean Basin and Subtropical Africa
GIP MERCATOR-OCEAN Operational Oceanography Development
with the support of ADEME, EDF, TOTALFINAELF