Download Adaptation to Global Warming

Adaptation to Global Warming
Contribution of Working Group
II to the
Fourth Assessment Report of
the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
Working Group I




Climate change is occurring
Climate change is anthropogenic in nature
Climate change is inevitable given historic
activities – the atmosphere is already “heavy”
with CO2
The world is catching up to SES
Adaptation

What will become the consequences of climate
change?
–
–
–

Environmental
Human
Economic
What can be done about them?
–
–
–
What are the likely costs?
What are the likely benefits?
Team II
From What Reference?





Comparisons are not made from today’s
reference
Comparisons need to be made based on the
possible futures
Frank Knight: Alternative futures
This is even more important when discussing
mitigation
What about a Type I error?????
The Issues






Freshwater resources and their
management
Ecosystems
Food, fibre and forest products
Coastal systems and low-lying areas
Health
Industry, settlement and society
Water




Increased water availability in moist tropics
and high latitudes
Decreasing water availability and increasing
drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low
latitudes
Where does the population live?
Hundreds of millions of people exposed to
increased water stress
Ecosystems





Up to 30% of species at increasing risk of extinction
Increased coral bleaching, Most corals bleached,
Widespread coral mortality: depending on magnitude
Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk
Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon
source as: ~15% to ~40% of ecosystems affected
Species interactions?
–
Pollination and food timing
Food




Complex, localised negative impacts on
small holders, subsistence farmers and
fishers
Tendencies for cereal productivity to
decrease in low latitudes
Tendencies for some cereal productivity to
increase at mid- to high latitudes
Simple isn’t it?
Coasts



Increased damage from floods and storms
About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost
Millions more people could experience
coastal flooding each year
Health




Increasing burden from malnutrition,
diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious
diseases
Increased morbidity and mortality from heat
waves, floods, and droughts
Substantial burden on health services
Changed distribution of some disease
vectors
Industry, Settlement and Society



Costs and benefits of climate change for industry,
settlement and society will vary widely by location
and scale.
In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be
more negative the larger the change in climate.
The most vulnerable industries, settlements and
societies are generally those in coastal and river
flood plains, those whose economies are closely
linked with climate-sensitive resources, and those in
areas prone to extreme weather events, especially
where rapid urbanisation is occurring.
Who Will Be Hit Hardest?

Poor communities can be especially
vulnerable, in particular those concentrated
in high-risk areas. They tend to have more
limited adaptive capacities, and are more
dependent on climate-sensitive resources
such as local water and food supplies.
The Results are Straightforward - NOT




Reduced energy demand for heating
Increased demand for cooling
Declining air quality in cities
Reduced disruption to transport due to
snow, ice
What to Do?



Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts
resulting from the warming which is already
unavoidable due to past emissions.
A wide array of adaptation options is available,
but more extensive adaptation than is currently
occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to
future climate change.
There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are
not fully understood.
Egg Or Chicken?



Future vulnerability depends not only on
climate change but also on development
pathway.
Sustainable development can reduce
vulnerability to climate change, and
climate change could impede nations’
abilities to achieve sustainable
development pathways.
Positive or negative feedbacks?
Africa: A Sample Case



By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people
are projected to be exposed to an increase of
water stress due to climate change.
If coupled with increased demand, this will
adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate
water-related problems.
A life changing idea!
Team I


The Social Evolution from the Energy
Regime Change
Where would we be without cars?
–



And how would we get there? (ha ha)
Where would we be without electricity?
Where would we be without industrial food?
How Many People Can the Earth Support?
Team I



What were the technological events that the
humongous increase in energy-caused work
allowed?
What were the consequences of the change?
Barbara Ward: Are we better off?
Team II




Adaptation
How will society change due to Climate
Change?
What are the costs of not doing?
What are the costs of doing?
Team II

Adaptation is NOT about a new energy
regime
Team III


Is a new energy regime needed?
What might that regime look like?
–




Alternatives
What are the costs and benefits of said
regime?
How will a new regime alter society?
Social and personal behavioural changes
EXAM QUESTIONS
Posters

Open Edana’s file