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Interfaith Power and Light Outline Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams I. Global Warming is Real II. The Science III. The Impacts IV. What We Can Do magazine covers courtesy of Chris Rose Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams The Greatest Threat “Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today.” Sir David King, Chief Scientist for the UK Government, January 2004 Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved Photo: http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/global-warming-threatens-polar-bears/2005/07/08/1120704551713.html Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Global Warming is Real “There is an international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human causes.” Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004 (ACIA) Global warming is happening now The world's leading atmospheric scientists tell us that a gradual warming of our climate is underway and will continue. This poses serious risks to our economy and our environment. It poses even greater risks to many other nations, particularly poorer countries that will be far less able to cope with a changing climate and low-lying countries where sea level rise will cause significant damage. SOURCE: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in-depth/ Pollution is the Primary Cause Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams The “Greenhouse gases” (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC’s) trap heat in the earth’s atmosphere. Greenhouse gases in atmosphere Solar energy passes through Radiant heat is trapped Diagrams: Jennifer Allen Diagrams © Jennifer Allen Science understood since 1859 - John Tyndall Pollution is the Primary Cause C + O2 CO2 Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams (Combustion) Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide. The most carbon dioxide in 650,000 years. (Siegenthaler et al, 2005) 1.8 Global Temperature Change (deg F) Humans have increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by more than 35% since the Industrial Revolution. 1000 Years of CO2 and Global Temperature Change 380 1.4 1.1 CO2 0.7 0.4 340 Temperature 320 0 -0.4 300 -0.7 -1.1 1000 360 CO2 Concentration (ppm) Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams CO2: Most Significant Greenhouse Pollutant 280 1200 1400 1600 Year 1800 2000 Source: ACIA 2004 Jennifer Allen graphic The Smoking Gun Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Natural factors only Human factors only Courtesy of Woods Hole Research Center Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Natural factors only Human factors only BOTH Courtesy of Woods Hole Research Center Postive Feedback - one example Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams The Albedo Effect Snow and sea ice reflect 85-90% of sun’s energy. Ocean surface and dark soil reflect only 10-20%. (ACIA, 2004) Increased melting of snow and sea ice More dark earth and ocean surface is exposed Land or water warms faster More of sun’s heat energy is absorbed (“White shirt versus Black shirt”) Impacts Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams 2003 Austin Post photo 1958 Matt Nolan photo Glacial Retreat 1941 USGS photo 2004 Bruce Molnia photo An area twice the size of Texas has melted away since 1979 (over 20% decrease). Arctic sea ice recovered less in 2005/2006. Source ACIA, 2004 Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer by 2050. Jennifer Allen Animation Arctic Sea Ice Extent (millions of sq. km.) Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Melting Sea Ice 9- ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA 1979-2005 8- Bering Sea Ice Sheet also retreating. 76Source: NSIDC, 2005 1978 | | | | | 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2005 Forest Fires • "The increase in large wildfires appears to be another part of a chain of reactions to climate warming," said study co-author Dan Cayan, director of Scripps Institution of Oceanography's Climate Research Division. • A recent increase in wildfire activity has been correlated with rising seasonal temperatures and the earlier arrival of spring, a new study concludes. By Sara Goudarzi LiveScience 06 July 2006 Ocean Acidification Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Over the last 200 years, about 50% of all CO2 produced on earth has been absorbed by the ocean. Remains in the atmosphere (greenhouse gas) Dissolves in sea water CO2 + H20 HCO3- + H+ (ACID) Water becomes more acidic. CO2 CO2 Ocean Acidification Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Lower pH = MORE ACID Historical and Projected pH and Dissolved CO2 Feely, Sabine and Fabry, 2006 pH At present rate of CO2 emission, pH predicted to increase by 0.4 units (ocean acidity triples) by 2100. Dissolved CO2 1850 Since 1850, ocean pH has decreased by about 0.1 unit (over 25% increase in acidity). 2000 2100 Ocean Acidification Under more acidic conditions: Pteropod Pteropods (an important food source for salmon, cod, herring, and pollock) likely not able to survive at CO2 levels predicted for 2100 (600ppm, pH 7.9) All photos this page courtesy of NOAA Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Animals with calcium carbonate shells -- corals, sea urchins, snails, mussels, clams, certain plankton, and others -- have trouble building skeletons and shells can even begin to dissolve. Coral reefs at serious risk. Food chain disruptions. Squid Clam Coral Bleaching Belize: estimated 40% loss since 1998 Seychelles: 90% bleached in 1998, now only 7.5% cover; 50% decline in fish diversity (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 5/06) If warming continues, Great Barrier Reef could lose 95% of living coral by 2050 (Ove HoeghGuldberg/ WWF 2005) Disease followed bleaching in Caribbean Reefs in 2005/06 Photo © Gary Braasch Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams (Independent 6/9/06). Human Health Impacts Disease: Malaria, Dengue Fever, West Nile Virus Weather Events: Heat waves, floods, droughts Water quality and quantity In a recent chilling assessment, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that human-induced changes in the Earth's climate now lead to at least 5 million cases of illness and more than 150,000 deaths every year. From Science Daily November 17, 2005 Inundation Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or, 1m rise + 3m storm surge) Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Weiss and Overpeck, 2006 Cataclysmic Global Consequences Florida Areas Subject to Inundation With a 100 cm Sea Level Rise Massive extinctions (25% by ’50) Ocean acidification Major ocean current changes Coral reef destruction Coastal inundation Harlequin frog ACIA 2004 Robert Puschendorf Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Drought, heat, extreme weather Photo © Robert Puschendorf All rights reserved Cataclysmic Global Consequences Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Bangladesh: More than 17 million people live within 3 feet (1m) of sea level. Bangladesh Photo courtesy of Richard Wilson, Bangladesh Maps, Harvard University Photo courtesy of ourbangla.com Tuvalu: Island nation with highest elevation 4.6m (15 ft); most is less than 1m above sea level. Tuvalu Photo © Gary Braasch The poor will suffer the most “Scientists recently mapped out the countries most likely to be affected by climate change. They include some of the poorest and least industrialized parts of the world. In other words, those who have contributed the least to global warming—and who are least able to deal with its effects—are the ones who will suffer most.” --From the website of World Vision Canada World Resources Institute, 2001 Per Capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels India China Japan European Union Russia Canada US 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 Tons of CO2 4.00 5.00 6.00 Source of US CO2 Emissions Commercial 4% Residential 6% Industrial 17% Electricity Generation 40% Transportation 33% Energy Information Administration 2000 US Electricity Generation (by fuel) Renewables 2% Hydropower 8% Nuclear 20% Coal 51% Natural Gas 16% Oil 3% Energy Information Administration 2000 What We Can Do REDUCE CO 2 EMISSIONS 1. Is it Achievable? 2. Action Is Essential at Every Level • • • • • Individual Congregation Corporate State & National International 3. Join IPL What We Can Do Corporate Actions Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Reducing CO2 is good business Dow Chemical: reduced energy per unit of production by 21% since 1994, saving $3 billion. 3M reduced emissions by about 37% between 1990 and 2004, by reducing energy consumption 4% per year. BP reduced emissions 14% between 1998 and 2004, gaining $650 million. What We Can Do Government Actions A Success Story Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams Regulating Emissions (SO2) through Cap and Trade SO2 Emissions from Utilities SO2 emissions have declined by more than 6.5 million tons since 1980. Fully implemented, the cap reduces SO2 emissions to 50% of 1980 levels by 2010. Source: EPA 2002 California Global Warming Legislation AB 32 would limit California’s global warming emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and institute a mandatory emissions reporting system to monitor compliance. It also would allow for market mechanisms to provide incentives to businesses to reduce emissions while safeguarding local communities. University of California, Berkeley study found that returning California’s global warming emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, as envisioned by AB 32, can boost the annual Gross State Product (GSP) by $74 billion and create 89,000 new jobs by 2020. What We Can Do Individual Actions 1. Conserve 2. Consume efficiently Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams 3. Use renewables 4. Be involved Fuel Efficiency Alternative Transportation Photo: Bill Bradlee Wind Energy Photo: Bill Bradlee Photovoltaic Solar Photo: Bill Bradlee Start Now! - Change a light bulb If every household in the U.S. replaced one light bulb with an ENERGY STAR qualified compact fluorescent light bulb (CFL), it would prevent enough pollution to equal removing one million cars from the road. Source: EPA Join Interfaith Power and Light! Here is what we are currently working on: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. "The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world that it leaves to its children.” Dietrich Bonhoeffer, German theologian Photo: Bill Bradlee Thank You! Interfaith Power and Light www.InterfaithPowerandLight.org Name: Email: Phone: Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams A portion of this slide show is © 2006 Alaska Conservation Solutions (slides marked in lefthand corner). The remaining portion is © The Regeneration Project. This presentation is the intellectual property of the authors. Permission is granted for the presentation to be freely shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission of the authors. Please contact the authors if you plan to deliver the presentation orally to a public audience.