Download Bellingham Climate Adaptation Plan - Bellingham

Bellingham
Climate
Adaptation
Plan
Avoiding the
Unmanageable and
Managing the Unavoidable
January 2012
Contents
Preface & Next Steps .................................................................................................................................... 3
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 4
Climate Action Plan Phase III ........................................................................................................................ 7
Climate Change Adaptation .......................................................................................................................... 7
Regional History of Adaptation ................................................................................................................. 8
Temperature, Precipitation, and Sea Level Rise Models .............................................................................. 9
Hydrology/Water Resources ....................................................................................................................... 11
Water Quantity ....................................................................................................................................... 11
Water Quality .......................................................................................................................................... 13
Ecosystem/Habitat .................................................................................................................................. 14
Infrastructure .......................................................................................................................................... 15
Adaptation Strategies ............................................................................................................................. 15
Oceanographic Changes.............................................................................................................................. 18
Inundation/Flooding ............................................................................................................................... 20
Landslides / Erosion / Sediment Transport ............................................................................................. 21
Acidification ............................................................................................................................................ 22
Increased Harmful Algal Blooms ............................................................................................................. 23
Infrastructure .......................................................................................................................................... 23
Adaptation Strategies ............................................................................................................................. 24
Protection ........................................................................................................................................... 24
Accommodation .................................................................................................................................. 25
Retreat ................................................................................................................................................ 25
Ocean Acidification and Harmful Algal Blooms .................................................................................. 26
Additional Measures ........................................................................................................................... 26
Energy ......................................................................................................................................................... 28
Energy Conservation/Efficiency .............................................................................................................. 31
Energy Production/Development ........................................................................................................... 31
Infrastructure .......................................................................................................................................... 31
References .................................................................................................................................................. 32
Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 37
2
Preface & Next Steps
This document is not intended to provide project level detail for climate adaptation. Rather it is
intended to provide a framework for evaluating vulnerabilities posed by climate change and identifying
strategies to increase the community’s resilience to such vulnerabilities. Seldom, if ever, will these
strategies take the form of large capital projects, with the sole purpose of climate adaptation. A vast
majority of adaptation actions will likely be relatively minor changes in planning or project design, and
nearly all will have additional benefits outside of increasing resiliency to climate change. Indeed, many
actions currently occurring, such as water conservation and stormwater management, already have
beneficial adaptation characteristics outside of their formal scope. Identifying these co-benefits will
enable the City to maximize the efficiency of funds as well as aid in leveraging additional resources for
projects.
While this plan is not intended to provide detail for future projects, it is intended to help aid future
decisions for a myriad of projects. Environmental Resources staff have developed a Sea Level Rise
Vulnerability Analyses tool for city planners and engineers to use during project development. This tool
is available online, and a worksheet from this is included in the appendix.
The science investigating climate change is continually evolving. The level of certainty amongst all
influences of climate change is not currently uniform. For example, there is very high confidence in
temperature warming predictions. However, precipitation changes, particularly for the Pacific
Northwest, are less certain. Many studies indicate there will be an increase, and a shift in patterns,
however there is less confidence in these estimates. Like all sciences, climate science is not static, and
more precision and confidence will be gained in coming years and decades. Due to this inherent state of
motion, climate adaptation strategies need to be equally dynamic. At a bienniel review of this plan is
necessary to ensure that it utilizes the “best available science”. Significant updates should be appended
as warranted.
Included in future updates should be an evaluation of sectors which have not been analyzed in detail
within this plan. A reprioritization of remaining sectors will likely be necessary as scientific
understanding expands as well as climate change impacts begin to occur.
While this plan focuses on Bellingham, climate change will not recognize jurisdictional boundaries. There
are aspects in which Bellingham stands vulnerable, but may have little capacity to act. For example, over
80% the Lake Whatcom watershed is under Whatcom County jurisdiction. Collaborating with staff from
Whatcom County and other nearby entities such as Skagit County, British Columbia as well as local Tribal
agencies would create a more holistic, efficient and effective approach to climate change adaptation.
Likewise, ensuring adaptation goals and strategies do not dwell solely in the Environmental Resources
Division, and are distributed to all staff whose work, or future work, will be affected is essential to
adequate preparation.
3
Executive Summary
Despite global greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts, climate change is occurring and will continue
to do so for several decades, if not centuries. It is therefore critical to identify probable climate change
impacts at a local level, and plan and prepare for the projected impacts.
City of Bellingham Environmental Resources staff conducted an analysis of climate change vulnerabilities
to identify which sectors are most at risk from a changing climate. Each sector was evaluated, scored,
and subsequently ranked to identify highest priorities. Based on available resources, three high priority
sectors were chosen for extensive analysis: hydrology/water resources, sea level rise, and energy.
Sectors that were not included in this analysis merit future discussion and planning as resources permit
and as science gains better understanding of climate change impacts.
Adapting to climate change will require a concerted effort by the community and elected officials. There
is no one size fits all approach to climate change adaptation, nor is it a onetime action. Flexibility will be
necessary as changes continue to manifest and as science continues to gain a better understanding of
the impacts of climate change.
Water Resources
Climate Change Impacts:
Bellingham’s water resources face two main threats due to climate change: decreased water quantity
and lowered water quality, both affecting human and ecosystem health. Much of the Pacific Northwest
(PNW) relies on deep seasonal snowpacks to store winter precipitation for use in the warmer, drier
months. Models indicate that Pacific Northwest snowpack will decrease significantly, up to 40%, over
the next century (Payne et al., 2004). Although Lake Whatcom’s natural watershed relies minimally on
snowpack, the Middle Fork (MF) of the Nooksack River, which augments water supply, will likely see a
fundamental change in streamflow regime, with higher winter flows followed by lower summer flows.
Summer stream flows are projected to decrease by 8.6%-15.7% in the coming decades (Donnell, 2007).
The MF contains two Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed species, Chinook Salmon and Bull Trout,
further limiting diversion capability. Increased temperatures and decreased summer precipitation will
reduce water volume in Lake Whatcom during periods of highest demand.
Water quality is intricately linked to water quantity, particularly in the PNW, where salmon require
abundant, clean, cold water. Increasing water temperatures not only negatively affect salmon; it also
increases biotic activity, such as algal growth in Lake Whatcom. As organic matter increases in water, so
too do treatment costs and use of chlorine, which leads to an increase in unwanted treatment
byproducts. Increased winter precipitation and elevated stream flows will likely increase stream bank
erosion as well as contribute to landslides in the watershed, further increasing the phosphorus and
sediment burden on Lake Whatcom. Water dependent wildlife will be affected from decreased water
quality, as will recreationalists using the lake.
Adaptation Strategies:
Adapting to these new conditions will require a diverse response. Water conservation efforts will be
vital in maximizing the use of each gallon of water. Water conservation takes a variety of forms,
including community outreach, infrastructure upgrades, sustainable water use/reuse, and regulatory
changes. Ensuring stormwater treatment facilities are designed to account for potential higher intensity
precipitation events will help prevent overflows and assist with ensuring appropriate water quality levels
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in Lake Whatcom. Expanding the Department of Natural Resource’s Landscape Plan to encompass all
logging activities within the Lake Whatcom watershed will reduce risks associated with mass wasting
events further protecting water quality in Lake Whatcom. Continued implementation and funding of the
Lake Whatcom Management Plan, particularly regarding property acquisition and invasive species
control, will lessen the burden on aquatic and terrestrial wildlife dependent on the lake for survival.
Oceanographic Changes
Climate Change Impacts:
Global sea levels have risen 1.0 – 2.5mm annually over the past century, and models predict this rate of
rise to increase to 2.0-8.6mm annually by 2100 (IPCC, 2007). Models vary, but by 2100, sea levels in
Puget Sound have potential to rise by as much as 50 inches (Mote, et al., 2008). This will have profound
impacts on coastal communities locally and around the world. Local sea level rise will likely manifest first
in more frequent and extreme episodic coastal flood events. Low-lying marshes, wetlands, and beaches
face high vulnerability, so too do coastal bluffs and hardened infrastructure. Both municipal and private
infrastructure are threatened by rising sea levels.
Ocean acidity levels have increased 30% worldwide over the past century (Feely, et al., 2008). This
increase has and will continue to impact calcium-carbonate dependent species, such as shellfish and
plankton. Increasing acidity is expected to increase mortality in many species, affecting commercially
harvested shellfish as well as disrupting a vital aspect of the food web in plankton.
Changing ocean characteristics have been correlated to an increase in both frequency and intensity of
harmful algal blooms (HAB) (Patz et al., 2006). HABs have the potential to cause human illness or death,
as well as deteriorate local ecosystem health for other marine species (US Center for Disease Control,
2004).
Adaptation Strategies:
Adapting to sea level rise will force difficult decisions in shoreline management. Three general responses
to sea level rise exist: accommodation (e.g. houses on stilts), protection (e.g. bulkheads, ripraps, etc),
and retreat (e.g. abandoning inundated or soon to be inundated facilities). Each response has benefits
and challenges, and all will likely be utilized to varying degrees. Accommodation is rarely used alone or
as a permanent option, often it is combined with protection to prevent damages. Hardening of a
shoreline (protection) eliminates all capacity of nearshore habitat to adapt to sea level rise. Physical
structures fundamentally alter sediment transport along a shoreline, potentially causing both local and
distant erosion. These structures can also increase vulnerability to extreme events, such as a strong
storm surge. Abandoning structures and facilities where inundation is imminent (retreat) provides the
greatest margin of error and allows tidal zones to adapt to higher sea levels. However, this approach can
be expensive and may be difficult to achieve large-scale community support.
Altered ocean chemistry poses a difficult challenge, as it is impossible to reduce acidity levels without a
significant reduction in global CO2. Reducing other external stresses on marine life will be essential to
species survivability. Monitoring and educating the public regarding HABs will help protect human and
ecosystem health. Reviewing and supporting local research will better prepare Bellingham for future
changes.
5
Energy
Climate Change Impacts:
According to the Bonneville Power Administration, climate change is the overarching issue for the entire
utility industry, with potential to change nearly every facet of operations. In the Pacific Northwest,
approximately 70% of all electricity is generated at hydroelectric dams, mostly in the Columbia River
watershed (Hamlet et al., 2009). Changes in precipitation patterns will likely increase power generation
in the winter and decrease generation in the summer, with an annual net loss of 1%-4% by 2020. At the
same time, demand for electricity is expected to increase significantly. Despite a warmer climate,
heating energy demand in the Pacific Northwest is forecasted to increase 22% by 2020 and 35% by 2040.
Cooling energy demand is expected to increase 240% by 2020 and 400% by 2040 (Hamlet et al., 2009).
Energy derived from fossil fuels will face changes as well. Generation capabilities will be affected by
competing water demands, emission reduction standards, increased ambient air temperature, and
extreme weather events. These changes will create significant challenges for energy producers and
managers.
Adaptation Strategies:
Energy conservation and renewable energy development will be essential to ensure an adequate energy
supply for Bellingham. Many conservation efforts are outlined in Phase I and II of the City of
Bellingham’s Climate Action Plan, however additional measures will also be necessary. Expanding energy
efficiency efforts will also reduce demand and maximize each kW used.
Developing local renewable energy sources will help buffer Bellingham from regional and national
fluctuations in electrical supply and associated cost implications. Several efforts are already being
evaluated for both municipal operations and the community. A hydroelectric generator utilizing the
former Georgia Pacific intake is currently being evaluated by the City, as is the use of solar panels on
select municipal buildings. Several private sector organizations have adopted solar and wind power
generation. Additional measures will be necessary if Bellingham is to work towards energy
independence.
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Climate Action Plan Phase III
In May 2007, the Bellingham City Council approved the Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Climate
Protection Action Plan. This plan outlines the City’s approach to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
from both municipal operations and the community. It is organized in three phases: the first phase
identifies actions in progress or planned to begin in the near future. The second phase identifies areas in
which additional progress in reducing GHGs could be achieved, and outlined steps to accomplish these
goals. Phase three was intentionally left undeveloped to incorporate more discussion and suggestions
from the community as well as allowing the goals and plans set forth to mature.
After several years of implementing the first two phases of the Climate Action Plan, and incorporating
feedback from the community, Phase III of the Climate Action Plan has been completed. This phase
addresses climate change adaptation; a different but equally important response to climate change.
Phase I and II are focused on climate change mitigation; reducing the amount of GHGs emitted in order
to reduce future impacts. Scientists agree however, that even if all carbon emissions ended today, the
climate would continue current trends for several
“A critical need is the dissemination
decades, if not centuries, before reaching equilibrium.
of current scientific information to
Therefore, planning and preparing for future conditions is
decision makers, resource managers,
a vital aspect of ensuring a resilient and sustainable
stakeholders, and the public.”
community. It is important to note that mitigation and
-Department of Ecology
adaptation actions are rarely mutually exclusive; often
times reducing GHG emissions simultaneously results in a
better-prepared individual or community. Household water conservation, for example, reduces the
energy demand for pumping and treating, while also reducing water demand from a water body, which
may be experiencing altered flows or decreased water quality. There are actions however, that may not
reduce carbon footprints, but will allow an identified sector to be better prepared to operate in a
changing climate.
Climate Change Adaptation
Anticipating and preparing for future climatic conditions offers several advantages when compared to a
reactionary approach. Climate change impacts will likely manifest in more frequent episodic extreme
events, such as storms and floods, requiring emergency responses. Taking action to limit impacts before
an event occurs greatly reduces risk to human health, infrastructure, and the environment. Whereas
emergency response is reactionary by nature, taking an anticipatory approach to climate change allows
for more robust planning, public review, and discussion (Whitely Binder et al., 2010). Furthermore,
anticipatory responses provide a greater suite of adaptation tools to climate change. It is impossible to
remove all vulnerability to climate change, but by creating a framework to address vulnerability in the
community, the City of Bellingham has an opportunity to greatly reduce projected future impacts from
climate change.
Identifying the most vulnerable sectors of our community and environment was the first step in
prioritizing adaptation efforts. Eight sectors were selected to be evaluated: hydrology/water resources,
oceanographic changes, forests, energy, transportation, human health, social disruption and severe
weather. While these sectors overlap in many ways, it was deemed appropriate to consider them as
distinct entities for the purpose of evaluation. Sectors were then evaluated and scored by eight
weighted criteria: system sensitivity, infrastructure impact, ecological impact, community impact, timescale of impacts, scientific certainty, jurisdictional capacity, and associated costs. Due to limited
7
resources, staff did not conduct a comprehensive analysis for each sector and instead chose to focus on
the three sectors with the highest scores: water resources, oceanographic changes, and energy.
Although ranking lower in priority, sectors not in the top three still merit future discussion and planning,
especially as science gains better understanding and as impacts begin to occur. One specific area that
should be investigated further in future studies is the potential social disruption associated with climate
change. This perhaps is the area of most uncertainty in climate change scenarios. While little research is
available, it can reasonably be expected that if more extreme models hold true, significant social
disruption is possible, especially with effects exacerbated by the closely related peak oil phenomena.
Figure 1 Comparison of observed year-to-year variability and projected
shifts in average temperature and precipitation from 20 climate models.
(http://cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml#table1)
Adaptation strategies are focused as much as
possible on “no regret” scenarios, meaning even if
climate predictions were erroneous, these actions
will still provide benefit to the community. By
identifying and confronting future risks and
vulnerabilities, the city has the opportunity to not
only limit economic and societal hardship, but
also create a more vibrant and resilient
community. Climate predictions are dire however;
this is by no means a “dooms-day” report. While
changes and difficulties are predicted, Bellingham
is well positioned to address these challenges and
will continue to be a highly desirable location to
live.
Regional History of Adaptation
In 2007, Governor Christine Gregoire directed the Directors of the Washington State Department of
Ecology (DOE) and Department of Commerce to determine specific steps Washington should take to
prepare for impacts of climate change. Five sectors were chosen for extensive evaluation including
public health, agriculture, coastline, forestry, infrastructure and water supply. Five Topic Advisory
Groups (TAGs) were formed with experts and representatives in each respective topic.
Recommendations from these task forces have been considered and included where applicable in this
plan.
King County collaborated with Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) to prepare a guidebook to
local climate change preparations. The City of Seattle has worked with the University of Washington
staff to better identify local vulnerabilities to climate change and are drafting a climate vulnerability
analysis. Olympia is conducting studies to forecast sea level rise impacts more precisely. While these and
other efforts are occurring, climate change adaptation is still very much in its infancy, with few
organizations undertaking the challenge. Bellingham once again has the opportunity to provide
leadership and foresight into climate change adaptation.
8
Temperature, Precipitation, and Sea Level Rise Models
Figure 1 Northwest Temperature Change Models
2020s: Temperatures in °C (°F)
2040s: Temperatures in °C (°F)
Season
B1
A1B
Range
B1
A1B
Range
+1.2 +1.3 +0.6 to +1.9
+1.7 +2.3
+0.9 to +2.9
Annual
(2.1) (2.3) (1.1 to 3.4)
(3.1) (4.1) (1.6 to 5.2)
Winter +1.0 +1.0 +0.4 to +2.0
+1.4 +1.8 +0.6 to +2.8
Dec-Feb (1.8) (1.8) (0.7 to 3.6)
(2.5) (3.3) (1.0 to 5.1)
Spring
+1.1 +1.1 +.02 to +2.0
+1.5 +1.8 +0.6 to +3.0
MarMay
(2.1) (1.9) (.04 to 3.6)
(2.7) (3.3) (1.0 to 5.4)
Summer +1.4 +1.8 +0.5 to +2.9
+2.1 +2.8 +0.9 to +4.4
Jun-Aug (2.5) (3.2) (1.0 to 5.2)
(3.7) (5.0) (1.5 to 7.9)
Autumn +1.0 +1.0 +0.1 to +1.8
+1.4 +1.9 +0.8 to +2.9
Sep-Nov (1.8) (1.8) (0.1 to 3.2)
(2.6) (3.5) (1.4 to 5.2)
Figure 2 Northwest Precipitation Change Models
2020s: Precipitation change, %
2040s: Precipitation change, %
Season
B1
A1B
Range
B1
A1B
Range
Annual
Winter
Dec-Feb
Spring
MarMay
Summer
Jun-Aug
Autumn
Sep-Nov
+1.8
+0.1
-9 to +10
+2.1
+2.0
-10 to +11
+2.0
+2.1
-14 to +23
+2.6
+5.1
-13 to + 27
+1.3
-0.3
-11 to + 9
+3.3
+3.9
-11 to +16
-3.0
-7.9
-30 to +13
-4.6
-12.0
-30 to +17
+5.1
+2.8
-11 to +20
+5.1
+4.7
-10 to +21
Figure 3 Sea Level Rise in Washington State
SLR
Estimate
By the year 2050
Central &
NW Olympic
Puget
Southern
Peninsula
Sound
Coast
By the year 2100
NW Olympic
Peninsula
Central &
Southern Coast
Puget
Sound
6" (16cm)
14"
(34cm)
50"
(128cm)
Very Low
-5" (-12cm)
1" (3cm)
3" (8cm)
-9" (24cm)
2" (6cm)
Medium
0' (0cm)
5" (12.5cm)
2" (4cm)
11" (29cm)
Very High
14" (35cm)
18" (55cm)
6" (15cm)
22"
(55cm)
35" (88cm)
43" (108cm)
9
Figure 4*
*
Figure 3 illustrates a “bathtub model” for sea level rise in Bellingham. It illustrates general vulnerability and topography,
however It is not precise enough to allow for detailed decision making.
10
Hydrology/Water Resources
Lake Whatcom is the drinking water source for approximately 96,000 residents of Bellingham and
Whatcom County (Total Maximum Daily Load, 2008). It is a large natural lake, which consists of three
connected basins and contains approximately 250 billion gallons of fresh water (TMDL, 2008). It is
drained via Whatcom Creek at the northwest end of the lake. A diversion dam on the Middle Fork (MF)
of the Nooksack River was constructed in 1962, which tunnels water 8900 feet, through Bowman
Mountain, to augment lake levels during drier months. The MF headwaters are the Deming Glacier on
Mt. Baker’s west face and flows 7.4 miles west until reaching the dam. In the summer, this diversion
supplies approximately 80% of the inflow to Lake Whatcom (Donnell, 2008). The MF Nooksack contains
two Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed species: Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Bull
Trout (Salvelinus confluentus). The MF helps control Lake Whatcom Levels, as does a control dam at the
entrance of Whatcom Creek. By law, the maximum lake level height is 314.94 ft above sea level.
Lake Whatcom faces several threats due to climate change. Northwest climate models suggest that
higher cool season temperatures (October-March) will result in more precipitation falling as rain rather
than snow in higher elevations (Marketa et al., 2009). This increase of winter rain and subsequent
decrease in spring and summer snow pack will change flow regimes of streams and rivers (Hamlet et al.,
2005). These changes have already begun. April 1 snowpack, a key indicator of water storage for dry
months, has declined almost 25% in the past 40-70 years in the Cascade Mountains (Mote, 2006).
Snowpack decline is expected to accelerate with as much as a 40% reduction by 2040 (Payne et al.,
2004). This change in precipitation patterns will result in a shift of streamflow regimes, with increased
winter and early spring flows, and significant declines in summer and fall flows (Stewart et al., 2004).
These effects will manifest themselves locally with impacts on water quantity, water quality,
wildlife/habitat, and infrastructure damages.
Water Quantity
Lake Whatcom is a low elevation watershed
where ridgelines reach 3000 feet in elevation.
Shallow seasonal snowpack develop in the upper
reaches, however most precipitation in the
watershed falls in the form of rain. Since the
snowpack is relatively shallow, the potential loss
of this melt-off in spring and summer is unlikely
Figure 5. April 1 snowpack has declined throughout the
to have a significant impact on water level
Northwest. In the Cascade Mountains, April 1 snowpack declined
(Greenburg, personal communication 2011).
by an average of 25 percent, with some areas experiencing up to
60 percent declines. On the map, decreasing trends are in red
However, the MF Nooksack has a much higher
and increasing trends are in blue.
watershed; particularly the sub-watershed
located above the diversion dam, which is heavily
reliant upon snow and glacier melt for flows during warmer months. Simulation results suggest that late
summer streamflow in the Middle Fork could be reduced by as much as 8.6% as the direct result of
glacier shrinkage predicted in the next fifty years, or by as much as 15.7% as the result of glacier
shrinkage and predicted climate change for the same time period (Donnell, 2007). This drainage will
likely follow the scenario projected for snow-dominated watersheds and shift towards a rain and snow
dominated watershed (see figure 6). This will result in increased cool season flows (November-March)
11
and decreased flows during summer and early fall. Higher winter flows and increased rain on snow
events may result in flooding and structural damage at the diversion dam. The resulting low summer
streamflows will limit the capability of diverting water to Lake Whatcom. Compounding this is the ESA
listed species in the MF, which require sufficient water for habitat. The City is currently in on-going
negotiations with other stakeholders to agree on water withdrawals for competing water interests and
to ensure adequate fish habitat.
Figure 6. Seasonal hydrologic response for three types of PNW
rivers (normalized monthly average streamflow): snowmelt
dominated, rain dominated, and mixed. MF Nooksack may
transition from snow dominated to rain and snow dominated.
(UW Climate Impacts Group, 2009)
Additional water quantity threats are likely to
manifest as well. The potential decrease in
summer precipitation in the PNW will result in less
water additions to the lake in the time of highest
water demand. Adding further stress is the
predicted increase in summer temperatures (Elsner
et al., 2009). In 2009-2010, evaporation accounted
for 8.8% of total hydraulic output from Lake
Whatcom, with an estimated 88% occurring
between April and September (Matthews, 2011).
During warm days, up to 20 million gallons of
water can be evapotranspired from the Lake
Whatcom watershed (City of Bellingham, 2002).
The increased summer temperatures will increase
total evaporation from the lake and transpiration
from the watershed, further reducing supply.
Despite a 47% population increase since 1991, water demand in Bellingham has remained consistent,
with an average daily demand of around 11 million gallons per day (MGD), and a maximum daily
demand of nearly 20 MGD. However, even with further conservation efforts, average daily and
maximum daily demand are expected to increase 54% and 65% respectively by 2028 (City of Bellingham,
2008). If water conservation efforts were stopped, average and maximum water demand is estimated to
increase 66% and 87% respectively. These estimates are based on a constant demand scenario and
consumption factors are unchanged. However, with the predicted temperature rise of 3-5 degrees,
demand has potential to increase. Early reports from climatic effects on water demand study in
Portland, Oregon, suggest per household water demand will increase over 100 gallons per month per
degree Celsius temperature raise.
Figure 7
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
population
million gallons/day (mgd)
Water Consumption and Population, Bellingham, WA
1990-2008
Average Daily
Consumption
Population
12
Water Quality
Lake Whatcom currently is on the Washington State 303(d) list of impaired water bodies due to high
phosphorus levels and associated low dissolved oxygen (DO) levels. Although climate change is not
considered a significant cause of elevated phosphorus levels, it will likely exacerbate the problem by
strengthening the internal phosphorus cycle. Phosphorus acts as a fertilizer to algae, which
photosynthesizes, thereby emitting oxygen (Matthews, 2011). However, this oxygen is then consumed
by the various organisms during the night. When algae die and sink to the substrate, it is decomposed by
oxygen consuming bacteria, thus creating an anoxic or hypoxic condition (Matthews, 2010). These
bacteria also release phosphorus back into the water column, enabling a self-reinforcing cycle of algal
growth and oxygen depletion. These affects are exacerbated by the annual stratification of the lake, in
which the lake forms two distinct layers with minimal mixing. This causes the hypolimnion (lower layer),
particularly in Basin One and Two, to become extremely oxygen deficient (TMDL, 2008).
Algal blooms can cause structural damages. In July 2009, a large algal bloom caused massive clogging at
intake pipes and treatment facilities, resulting in water shortages and mandated water conservation
efforts, the first such occasion the City has encountered. This increase of algae also makes water
purification more difficult and chemical intensive, which results in an increase in unwanted treatment
byproducts.
Predicted increases in summer
temperatures in the northwest will
strengthen this cycle. Algae growth will
likely be stimulated by the increase in solar
energy due to warmer days and potentially
less precipitation. Exact algal bloom
changes, however, are particularly difficult
to predict. Algae respond quickly to
temperature and precipitation influences,
and climate change science is not precise
enough to forecast at such a detailed level
(Matthews, Personal Communication,
2011).
Water quality faces other threats from
climate change as well. The potential
increase in winter precipitation and raising
snowline elevation will create higher
stream and stormwater flows. Bank
erosion due to high water flows will
Figure 8. Nonlinear relationship between dissolved oxygen
and time at Site 1, 12 m. All correlations were significant
contribute phosphorus-laden sediment to
(Matthews, 2011)
the lake, further stimulating algal growth.
An increase in stormwater runoff will also
likely increase phosphorus and other chemical loading into the lake. In addition, an increase in
precipitation as well as a potential increase in rain-on-snow events will create more favorable conditions
for mass wasting events in the Lake Whatcom watershed. These events are well documented in the
watershed, with the most recent major event happening in 2008 when large amounts of soil and debris
flooded through Austin Creek into Lake Whatcom.
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Ecosystem/Habitat
Water quality and quantity are both intrinsically linked to ecosystem and species health. Countless
plant, fish and animal species rely on Lake Whatcom and its watershed for their health and habitat.
Impacts to this ecosystem will reach beyond ecological damage and has the potential to affect local and
regional economies as well. Lake Whatcom is distinguished as one of the largest suppliers of Kokanee
Salmon in the nation, with two-thirds of the state stocked fisheries hatched at the Brannian Creek
Hatchery. 36 lakes in Washington State rely on this operation, contributing an estimated $20.7 million to
the state economy (Whatcom County, 2003). Salmon require abundant, cold and well-oxygenated
waters to survive and spawn. Effects from climate change threaten all three of these requirements, and
periodic fish kills have already been observed in the lake. As
Climate change is likely to make its
mentioned above, ESA listed Chinook salmon and Bull Trout
most dramatic initial impact on fish
inhabit the MF Nooksack, which may limit water diversion.
and wildlife, pushing some species
Salmon have a societal and economic value matched by few
closer to extinction.
other species, and while there are many other creatures that
-Department of Ecology
rely on Lake Whatcom for survival, Kokanee Salmon act as a
keystone and indicator species for others in the watershed. Due to their direct reliance on a high quality
water environment, they will likely be among the first and most affected from climate change.
Water temperature of Lake Whatcom will
increase with atmospheric warming. This
warmer water, along with the additional
nutrient loading outlined above, will create
more favorable conditions for non-native,
invasive species (US Army Corps of Engineers,
2009). Control costs for invasive species
nationwide are estimated at $137 billion
annually (Washington Invasive Species Council,
2009). Invasive species cause structural
damages such as clogged pipes, are deleterious
to the native ecosystem, and hinder
recreational opportunities (Lake Whatcom
Figure 9 Average summertime temperature estimates for the 1980s (left
map), and the 2040s (right map). Continuous colors indicate air
Invasive Species Plan, 2011). The Great Lakes
temperatures and colored dots represent water temperature sites
region has seen a near total collapse of
(Mantua et al.).
commercial and recreational fishing industries,
due to the Zebra and Quagga Mussels. These mussels, native to Eurasia, were introduced via ship ballast
water in the late 1980’s and have since spread to 33 states (100th Meridian Initiative, 2010). Most
invasive species are spread passively, by attaching to a boat, trailer or wildlife (US Fish and Wildlife,
2007).
Streams throughout Bellingham will experience changes due to climate change. The four largest
perennial creeks within City limits are Chuckanut, Fairhaven, Padden, Whatcom and Squalicum Creek.
All are salmon bearing, and provide habitat to a myriad of other aquatic and terrestrial species. These
streams are low elevation watersheds which will likely follow a similar pattern outlined above, with
higher winter flows and decreased summer flows. Significantly higher flows pose threats to salmon as
redds (egg nests) can become asphyxiated or crushed with increased sediment and debris. Additionally,
14
juvenile fish unable to contend with the increased velocity can be carried to the ocean before reaching
adequate age.
Infrastructure
Both public and private infrastructure face threats because of hydrologic changes. If models predicting
higher winter precipitation are correct, flows throughout Bellingham, in both creek beds and
stormwater drainages face an increased threat of flood and overflow. This will be exacerbated if models
showing increased storm intensity hold true. Additionally, if flows are continuously elevated, as would
be the case with increased winter precipitation, increased scouring and erosion rates are likely along
creek banks.
The diversion dam on the MF Nooksack will likely see an increase of winter flows in the coming decades.
Debris flow into the river may increase as well; as more rain on snow events produce landslides and
avalanches, contributing rocks, soil, and trees into the river. Elevated river flows and increase sediment
and debris poses threats to the functional capacity of the dam and may ultimately reduce its expected
lifespan. Included in the risk to the dam is risk to nearby infrastructure, particularly access roads, which
have sustained recent damages due to flooding.
“Consequences of inadequate stormwater
Removing debris and repairing roads will be costly due
facilities can be severe, but adaptation
to its remote location and difficult access.
strategies are available and relatively
straightforward if anticipated well in
Stormwater infrastructure, including detention ponds,
advance.”
filter systems and pipes stand vulnerable to increased
-UW Climate Impacts Group
precipitation. However, uncertainty in this field is still
relatively high. Some models have shown significant
disruptions to stormwater facilities, while others have shown modest changes (Rosenberg et al., 2009).
Due to this, retrofitting existing structures to accommodate higher flows appears unnecessary at this
time. Taking a precautionary approach with future stormwater projects, and including increased flows in
design, would improve adaptive capacity, at a relatively modest cost.
Heavy rain events lead to saturated soil, increasing threat of landslides on unstable slopes. This poses
threats to infrastructure on and below these areas, including houses, roads, water/sewer pipes and
electrical transmissions. Due to its built environment, most of Bellingham will likely not see an increase
in these events. However, landslides may cause power outages and disrupt traffic traveling in/out of city
limits.
Bellingham’s main thoroughfare is Interstate 5, which runs north/south along the city. This, and all
parallel traffic ways, cross two large drainages: the Skagit River to the south, and the Nooksack River to
the north. Both may see increased flood occurrence and intensity, with a potential to disrupt vehicle and
rail accessibility, and isolating Bellingham.
Increased phosphorus levels in Lake Whatcom pose threats to water intakes and treatment centers.
Large algal blooms have already caused intake clogging and increased the level of treatment needed to
ensure water potability. Climate change will likely exacerbate both phosphorus contributions and algal
survivability.
Adaptation Strategies
Ensuring sufficient and high quality water supply for both the community and wildlife will be a
challenge. Many reservoirs with similar threats have the luxury of increasing water storing capacity to
15
accommodate for high winter/spring flows while also ensuring sufficient water supplies for summer and
fall. Unfortunately, Lake Whatcom cannot increase lake capacity due to the legal maximum level set by
law.
Artificial water storage would enable winter precipitation detainment, which would limit erosion and
increase storage capacity. Residential on-site water storage would help alleviate demand for outdoor
water use, particularly if water is detained for use in summer. Streamlining permitting and incentivizing
rain and grey water reuse would decrease stress on the water system as well as reduce affects of
stormwater runoff. The Stormwater Utility provides an avenue to encourage residential infiltration and
water detainment.
According to the Washington State Natural Resources Topic Advisory Group (TAG) report, conserved
water is likely to be the cheapest source of new water. Continuing and expanding water conservation
outreach will be imperative to ensuring sufficient water supply for Bellingham. Per state law, residential
water utility customers will be converted to metered water billing by 2017. This is expected to decrease
water usage and provide tools for encouraging water conservation. Seattle Public Utilities, for example,
has a two season, three-tier billing system, where customers are charged different rates depending on
season and on water consumption. Winter carries a flat rate, where all water usage is billed equally;
however in the summer customers are charged 16% and 200% more for water used after 24 hundred
cubic feet (CCF) and 36 CCF respectively. This is an effective means of discouraging water waste, while
limiting impact on low-income households.
“Conserved water is likely to be the cheapest
source of new water.”
Reducing additional external stresses on wildlife will
-Washington State Water Preparation
lessen the impacts associated with climate change.
Adaptation Work Group (PAWG)
Low DO levels pose a large threat to fish, and
several fish kill events have been documented already. According to the Department of Ecology TMDL
report (2008), residential development is the largest contributor of phosphorus-laden runoff to the lake.
DOE prescribed an 85% reduction in development related runoff in order to achieve acceptable water
quality levels. Whatcom County, City of Bellingham and Lake Whatcom Water and Sewer District have
formed the Lake Whatcom Management Program, to work towards Lake Whatcom restoration. The
Management Program has undertaken many projects thus far, such as stormwater treatment, property
acquisition and residential infiltration. Continuing and increasing these efforts will be pivotal in reducing
stress to the aquatic ecosystem. The Property Acquisition Program will be particularly helpful as it
provides terrestrial habitat and increased natural water filtration.
Limiting potentially unstable slopes is vital to ensuring a minimal influx of new phosphorus and
sediment. While logging is considered to degrade water quality significantly less than development
(TMDL, 2008), it is important to limit what influences it does have. The Lake Whatcom Landscape Plan,
from the Department of Natural Resources (DNR), sets forth more stringent regulations for logging
operations on DNR land in the watershed. This plan was developed over several years and was drafted
and approved by experts through a public review process. By increasing stream buffers, limiting harvest
on potentially unstable slopes and limiting road runoff, the Landscape Plan limits phosphorus loading on
Lake Whatcom associated with logging activity. These protections, however, are not required by private
logging operations within the watershed, which accounts for a significant proportion of total watershed
logging. Approximately 430 acres not protected under the Landscape Plan have been harvested since
2005. Extending protection to these areas would help prevent additional phosphorus and sediment
loading into Lake Whatcom.
16
With the potential increase in heavy storm events, it will be important to ensure that stormwater
treatment facilities are capable of processing the extreme flows. The new climactic “normal” should be
taken into account when designing stormwater facilities to ensure that overflow events are minimized
and the maximum amount of water is treated before entering Lake Whatcom.
Preventing additional invasive species from entering Lake Whatcom will be imperative due to the
economic and environmental threat they pose. Many local governments throughout the country,
including the City of Bellingham, have adopted Invasive Species Plans, which outline the risk posed from
specific species to specific water bodies. Water bodies with elevated risks have adopted prevention
plans to actively keep invasive species from entering a water body. Examples of protection include
voluntary vessel inspections, mandatory vessel decontamination, and vessel exclusion. Eliminating all
risk from invasive species is not possible; however, by regulating higher risk vessels from entering the
lake, the potential for accidental introduction is greatly reduced. If a harmful invasive species, such as a
zebra or quagga mussel, were to become established, eradication would be extremely difficult, if not
impossible.
Since past climates are no longer indicative of the future, reliance on historical data may prove
insufficient in preparing for future natural disasters. Emergency planners should incorporate the most
current climactic forecasts into planning. These plans should also provide flexibility, to incorporate the
best available science. Absolute certainty should not be a prerequisite for emergency planning; rather
recognition that large-scale changes and impacts are possible and should be prepared for.
17
Oceanographic Changes
Bellingham enjoys a rich history as a coastal community, with many historical and current uses of its
waterfront. With its proximity to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and as the nearest port to British Columbia,
Bellingham has a diverse economy dependent upon the ocean. The Fairhaven Port is the southern-most
port for the Alaska Marine Highway System and hosts other ships throughout the year; an estimated
200,000 passengers use this terminal annually (Port of Bellingham). Squalicum Harbor, at the northern
end of the city, is home to more than 1,400 pleasure and commercial boats as well as a public park and
business center. Several parks and open spaces exist along the Bellingham shoreline, as does residential
development, commercial use and
industrial use. 140 acres in the heart of
the City’s waterfront was acquired in
2005 by the Port of Bellingham. This
area, the former Georgia Pacific mill, is
expected to be developed during the
next thirty years to sustain mixed-use
residential and commercial zoning,
with waterfront parks and public
access points. Also in close proximity
to the ocean is the Post Point
Wastewater Treatment Center in
Fairhaven.
Bellingham is connected by railroad running north to Vancouver BC and south to Seattle and California.
These railways operate both commercial and passenger traffic, with the railway running along the coast
almost continuously through Bellingham. These rails are often only a few feet above high tide level.
Amtrak operates a station in Fairhaven, adjacent to the Alaska Ferry terminal, with several trains
running through daily. With a proposed large coal terminal just north of Bellingham, rail traffic through
the city may increase significantly in the coming decade(s).
Because of Bellingham’s current and historic use of the ocean, it stands vulnerable to changes in
oceanographic dynamics. The ocean has absorbed roughly 80% of the heating associated with rising
greenhouse gases during the past 50 years (IPCC, 2007) and is expected to warm 2.2° F by 2040
(Washington State TAG 3, 2011). Because seawater expands slightly when warmed, this has led to an
increase of global ocean volume. Ocean levels have been rising for the past century, on average, at a
rate of 1.0-2.5mm per year (IPCC, 2007). This is expected to increase to 2.0-8.6mm per year depending
on models (IPCC, 2007). According to “moderate” local
“Pro-active policy choices have the
modeling, mean sea level is expected to rise 2-13 inches by
potential to decrease the economic
2100. However, if the melting trends of Greenland and
costs of responding to sea level rise
Antarctica from the mid-2000s continue, models show a sea
and limiting future impacts.”
level rise of as much as 50 inches by 2100 (Mote et al., 2008).
-Washington Coastal PAWG
The manifestations of eustatic sea level rise will vary spatially; even within Puget Sound, relative sea
level rise is expected to range. Southern Puget Sound for example, where earth is slowly sinking, is
expected to suffer more severe impacts from sea level rise (Huppert et al., 2009). Further west, on the
Olympic Peninsula, land is slowly rising due to isostatic rebound and other tectonic forces, thus helping
to ameliorate sea level rise. In Bellingham, land rise has been found neutral, with negligible uplifting or
sinking (Shipman, 2004).
18
Oceans also act as enormous sinks for CO2. It is estimated that since the beginning of the industrial
revolution, oceans have absorbed over 127 billion metric tons of CO2 (Huppert et al., 2009). This has
resulted in a global change in the pH balance of oceans by increasing acidity levels nearly 30%. This
change in chemistry will affect ecosystems locally and the world around.
Five global consequences are expected from oceanographic changes: inundation, salt-water incursion to
aquifers, flooding, landslide/erosion and acidification of the oceans. All but aquifer disturbances are
likely to affect Bellingham over the coming century.
Figure 10
SLR
Estimate
By the year 2050
Central &
NW Olympic
Puget
Southern
Peninsula
Sound
Coast
By the year 2100
NW Olympic
Peninsula
Central &
Southern Coast
Puget
Sound
6" (16cm)
14"
(34cm)
50"
(128cm)
Very Low
-5" (-12cm)
1" (3cm)
3" (8cm)
-9" (24cm)
2" (6cm)
Medium
0' (0cm)
5" (12.5cm)
2" (4cm)
11" (29cm)
Very High
14" (35cm)
18" (55cm)
6" (15cm)
22"
(55cm)
35" (88cm)
43" (108cm)
Figure 11. Historic sea level rise. Blue indicates observed and black
indicates measured via satellite (IPCC, 2007)
19
Inundation/Flooding
Inundation and flooding are perhaps the most obvious examples of impacts from sea level rise, however
even within the 11.5 miles of shoreline in the City; affects will vary depending on localized geography,
geology, and infrastructure. While inundation and flooding
“Changes in sea level will
are distinct events, their causes and consequences are very
predominately be experienced through
similar, as are their adaptation methods. Because of this,
increased episodic flooding as what
they have been assessed together in this report.
are now considered extreme events
become both less extreme relative to
Topography and geology are important to be considered
new sea levels and more frequent.”
together with regards to sea level rise. Long, gradual rise
-Washington Coastal PAWG
beaches and wetlands are likely to bear the first impacts
from climate change. In Fairhaven, for example, low-lying
wetlands and parks have high potential for future inundation (see SLR map, Figure 4*). This is also near
the location of the municipal wastewater treatment, Post Point. Sea level changes will likely be
experienced through an increase in episodic flooding events with increasing severity.
Figure 12.
It is estimated that every millimeter of sea
level rise will result in a loss of 10cm of
shoreline (Sverdup & Armbrust, 2008).
Thus, even with moderate predictions, a
sea level rise of 15 cm will reduce shoreline
by 1.5 meters (nearly five feet). This is in
part due to higher water level allowing
waves to break closer to shore and expend
more energy on the beach. In addition,
when sea level rises, the effects of waves
and currents reach farther up the beach
profile, causing a readjustment of the landward portion of the profile (Sverdup & Armbrust, 2008).
It is important to note that elevation is not the sole
determining factor in sea level rise vulnerability; in
fact, in certain instances increased elevation may
increase susceptibility. Bluffs composed of fine,
loose sediment or non-compacted rock will see
increased erosion due to higher water levels. During
major storm events, SLR will compound the effect of
storm surges and will likely increase landslide rates.
Due to anticipated increased winter precipitation,
bluffs may become saturated and more prone to
mass wasting. Figure 12 shows coastal landslide
occurrences in Puget over the past century. Strong
Figure 13. Landslide occurrences in Puget Sound.
Extremes are closely aligned with strong El Nino events
*
Figure 3 illustrates a “bathtub model” for sea level rise in Bellingham. It is not precise enough to allow for detailed decision
making.
20
La Nina seasons (indicative of high winter precipitation) correspond strongly to periods of high landslide
occurrence.
Protecting against inundation often involves raising dikes, seawalls or other shoreline armaments. Many
times these structures exacerbate erosion because the waves expend their energy over a very narrow
portion of the beach. If only a portion of the coastline is protected, wave energy may concentrate at the
ends of the seawall, and the wall may collapse. Seawalls can also reflect waves to combine with
incoming waves and cause higher, more damaging waves at the seawall or at some other place along
the shore (Sverdup & Armbrust, 2008). These structures also prevent any adaptation for the local
ecosystem (DNR, 2009). A non-protected shoreline allows for shoreline creep and a gradual colonization
within various tidal zones. However, when a physical barrier interrupts this process, intertidal life suffers
a significant loss of habitat. Statewide a 23” rise in sea
Historical information demonstrates that
level is estimated to cause significant detrimental
major eelgrass losses have occurred along
impacts on coastal habitats including 65% loss of
the industrialized shoreline of Bellingham
estuarine beaches, 61% loss of tidal swamps and 44%
area.
loss of tidal flats (Department of Ecology, Ecosystem
-DNR Bellingham Eelgrass Report
TAG, 2011).
Marine nearshore habitat is critical for the Puget Sound ecosystem (DNR, 2009) and is a priority habitat
per WDFW Priority Habitat and Species Program (WDFW, 2008). Juvenile salmon, rockfish, crab,
herring, shellfish, waterfowl and many other species rely on the area defined as “the area comprising
the beach, the upland adjacent to it and the intertidal area” (Puget Sound Partnership, 2002). An
integral aspect of nearshore environments in the Puget Sound are healthy eelgrass beds. These beds
provide shelter, food and rearing habitat to an enormous variety of ocean life. They also provide
sediment stabilization (Ecology, 2011). In Bellingham Bay, it is estimated that eelgrass beds have
decreased by up to 92% since the late 1800s (DNR, 2009). This is attributed to the hardening and
industrialization of the waterfront and highlights the precarious and sensitive state of this critical
habitat.
Landslides / Erosion / Sediment Transport
Coastlines are in a constant state of change; sometimes this is can only be seen on a centurial or
millennial timescale while other events are instantaneous and catastrophic. Sediment transport and
subsequent beach formation/erosion is a complex process, one in which consequences of action in one
location may only be realized miles up-beach and years later. Beach armoring, for example, reduces
immediate erosion of a beach, but may limit sediment transport “downstream” thus reducing beach
building capacity and increasing erosion (Sverdup & Armbrust, 2008). It also may limit immediate beach
formation, thus causing a future instability at the site of armor. Climate change will influence this
dynamic by increasing sea level as well as the potential for higher frequency and intensity of winter
storms.
Figure 14
Placing armaments along a shoreline is a common
defense against coastal inundation and beach erosion.
Unfortunately, these protections such as ripraps,
revetments and seawalls typically decrease the
volume of sediment available to sustain beaches
(Johannessen & MacLennan, 2007). These structures
gradually lose sediment and shallow water habitat
21
(Sverdup & Armbrust, 2008). Elevated sea levels as well as an increase in winter storms will intensify
erosion (Huppert et al., 2009) and likely alter sediment transport dynamics. Coastal landslides help form
beaches in both immediate shoreline changes as well as the sediment they provide for beach formation.
With higher sea levels and the potential for increased winter precipitation and intensity, landslide
occurrence is likely to increase (Huppert et al., 2009). Detailed models have not been created at this
time and specific impacts are difficult to forecast, however, a fundamental shift in coastal erosion is
possible with future climate scenarios.
Beach armoring structures are permitted through Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife
(WDFW) through a “Hydraulic Project Approval” (HPA) permit and reviewed via the Bellingham
Shoreline Master Program (SMP). These structures are regulated as “In-Water Structures” with an
objective of no net loss of existing shoreline ecological function for new and retrofitting structures.
Specifically “
Acidification
Acidity is measured by the amount of hydrogen (H) and hydroxide (OH) ions in a solution; the more H
ions, the more acidic the solution is, and conversely, the more OH ions, the lower the acidity and the
more basic a solution is. The amount of H and OH ions is measured on a logarithmic pH scale which
measures the concentration of
the hydrogen ions in a solution
(pH= -log10(H+)). Thus, a decrease
by 1 on the pH scale is equivalent
to a tenfold increase in acidity
(Doney et al., 2006). In pure
water, the pH is 7. Oceans
worldwide average between 7.58.5, thus they are slightly basic or
alkaline. Oceans absorb Carbon
dioxide (CO2) through a chemical
reaction (CO2 + H20 → H2CO3 →
Figure 15
HCO3 + H+ or CO3 + 2H), where it
is then able be transported in the
water column by currents, waves and organisms.
Increasing CO2 results in lower pH levels (increase in acidity). This reaction releases carbonate ions
(CO32) that bond with hydrogen, resulting in a reduction of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) that shellfish and
other crustaceans need to create their shells. Studies indicate that larval survival of many marine
species, including commercial shellfish, is reduced with increased acidity. (Feely et al., 2008)
Oceans act as a large buffer for CO2 emissions worldwide. It is estimated that, worldwide, oceans have
absorbed 127 billion metric tons of CO2 since the beginning of the industrial revolution (Feely et al.,
2008). This has resulted in a lowering of global oceanic pH by .1, or about a 26% increase in acidity.
Locally, upwelled waters off the Pacific Coast have been shown to have increased acidity, in levels higher
than anticipated. Acidity levels are expected to continue the increasing trend through the century (Feely
et al., 2008). By the end of the century, models point to a pH decrease of .3, or doubling the current
acidity levels and creating oceans that are more acidic than any time in the past 20 million years. (Feely
et al., 2008)
22
“Over the past decade, evidence of a
relationship between climate and the
magnitude, frequency, and duration of
HABs has suggested that the seasons
when HABs occur may expand as a result
of climate change.”
-UW Climate Impacts Group
Increased acidity is expected to negatively affect both wild
and farmed shellfish, particularly to species that have
already been fragmented and are vulnerable. Shellfish
facilities have shown low egg development and poor
juvenile survival with more acidic water (Feely et al., 2008).
Although there are many factors that could contribute to
this, it is thought that the low pH has played a significant
factor.
Several plankton species may be affected by greater mortality rates. Plankton forms a critical base of the
biological food web, supplying food for many commercial and recreational fisheries. Studies have
correlated increasing acidity levels with low survival rates for pteropods; a key diet constituent of
juvenile salmon, including ESA listed Chinook salmon (Fabry et al., 2008).
Figure 16
Although detailed biological impacts of ocean acidification are still not certain, a recent
study finds that sufficient information about ocean acidification exists “to state with certainty that
deleterious impacts on some marine species are unavoidable, and that substantial alteration of marine
ecosystems is likely over the next century.” (Fabry et al. 2008)
Increased Harmful Algal Blooms
Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are “algal blooms that causes negative impacts to other organisms via
production of natural toxins, mechanical damage to other organisms, or by other means.” (Center for
Disease Control, 2004) These events are also commonly referred to as “red tide”, although not all HABs
are red nor do they correspond directly with tidal events. HABs are often associated with large-scale
marine mortality events and have been associated with various types of shellfish poisonings. These algal
blooms appear to be increasing in frequency both locally and globally, along with increased incidence of
human health impacts. Sea surface temperature and upwelling have both been linked with HABs (Patz et
al., 2006). Due to their ability to swim for deeper nutrients (opposed to other diatoms and
phytoplankton), most marine HAB dinoflagellates are expected to be favored over other phytoplankton
with future climate scenarios (Huppert et al., 2009).
The present occurrence of HAB is significantly higher than any time in the past 60 years (Patz et al.,
2006). Research is ongoing, but studies in Sequim Bay suggest that paralytic shellfish poisoning toxicity
increases when the climate is warm and dry, and decreases when the climate is cold and wet (Horner et
al., 1997).
Infrastructure
Buildings, roads and structures in close proximity to the shoreline face varying degrees of vulnerability
to sea level rise. Sea level rise predictions indicate a slow creep of the ocean landward, ranging from 3”50” by the end of the century. Infrastructure in closest proximity (both laterally and vertically) face more
23
immediate and severe threats than those situated further from the sea. Figure 4 shows potential
inundation along the Bellingham waterfront. It should be noted that this represents sea levels at
average high tide, thus areas colored with the corresponding rise in sea level rise are areas in which
would be inundated at high tide. As outlined above, it is very likely these areas will be flooded by a
storm event before they are slowly inundated by sea level creep. Likewise, even if sea level were to raise
only 10”, storm surges would likely periodically flood areas that are higher, potentially preventing the
use of a specific area.
Creating an inventory of assets and map along the coastline of Bellingham will better identify structures
and facilities that are vulnerable to sea level rise. Included in this inventory should be asset values,
lifespan, and adaptive capacity.
Adaptation Strategies
There is no “one size fits all” adaptation approach to sea level rise and other oceanographic changes.
Adjusting to the fundamental shoreline change will be necessary to avoid repeated property damages
and to reduce threats to human health and safety. There are three general adaptation approaches to
sea level rise: accommodation, protection, and retreat. Accommodation allows for existing structures
and facilities to remain by adjusting to higher water levels (e.g., a beach house on stilts). The protection
approach involves engineering protective structures to prevent rising water levels to inundate a certain
area (e.g. bulkheads, ripraps, seawalls, etc). The retreat approach abandons structures that have been
or are likely to be inundated by sea level rise, allowing the ocean to slowly colonize the area. Converting
a frequently flooded area into a park is an example of retreat.
There is no equation in determining which of these responses is most appropriate to a specific location;
each of the approaches above are likely to be used throughout Washington State and Bellingham
depending on many factors.
Protection
While a seawall is perhaps the most obvious example of protection, this approach can also include softer
approaches, such as created dunes or planting vegetation (EPA, 1990). This approach ensures that, at
least in the short term, land usage is not affected by rising sea levels. As outlined above, protection can
cause significant environmental harm to tidal
areas that are vital to many species, including
commercially harvested salmon and crab.
Protecting a shoreline can also lead to
difficulties in the future. As sea level continues
to rise, a protected area becomes increasingly
reliant on artificial structures for safety, and
may
eventually
preclude
the
possibility
of
any
other adaptive approach. This also increases
Figure 17
vulnerability to a catastrophic event, by essentially creating a city, or portion of a city,
below sea level.
24
Accommodation
Figure 18
Accommodating sea level rise involves adapting to a new condition. This can be either with a structural
modification, such as elevating a house onto stilts or converting use to one with more adaptive capacity.
This approach allows for moderate use of the shoreline with less habitat degradation compared to
protection. Due to the characteristics of shorelines in Bellingham (and Washington), this approach is
seen less often in comparison to other coastal communities, particularly on the Atlantic Coast.
Generally, accommodation is used with other responses to sea level rise, either protect or retreat.
Retreat
Figure 19
Retreating allows for maximum ecological resiliency as well as provides the greatest margin of safety for
human life and structures. This is a common approach for frequently flooded rivers and estuaries. Often
these areas are turned into a park or into an ecological preserve, thus when they are flooded, damage is
limited. A calculated retreat poses several concerns, including private property loss, tax revenue loss,
and potential tourism loss.
Accommodating sea level rise by retreat can often involve the use of easements. “Rolling easements”
are a special type of easement placed along the shoreline to prevent property owners from holding back
the sea but allow any other type of use and activity on the land. As the sea advances, the easement
automatically moves or "rolls" landward. Because shoreline stabilization structures cannot be
constructed, sediment transport remains undisturbed and wetlands and other important tidal habitat
can migrate naturally. Private property owners are able to decide how to best use their property until it
is inundated (Titus, 1998). This also provides dry or intertidal land for the public to walk along,
preserving lateral public access to the shore (NOAA, 2010).
“New scientific studies/information on
tsunamis and sea level rise should be used to
guide shoreline development as it becomes
available and accepted as scientifically valid.”
-Bellingham Shoreline Master Plan
Developing criteria for determining which of these
approaches is most appropriate would be a useful tool
for the community and shoreline managers. At a
minimum, criteria for evaluation should include
anticipated infrastructure lifespan; proximity to
shoreline, both vertical and horizontal; use of area, risk
tolerance of City and/or owner.
25
Figure 4 shows the estimated flooded areas from sea level rise. As shown, the areas of highest concern
are the former GP site, Squalicum Harbor and the rail tracks running almost the length of the city. The
waterfront redevelopment plans to address sea level rise in several ways. The new site will include a soft
shoreline, with an emphasis on habitat development. This shoreline will also be elevated, by fill, to
withstand the projected sea level rises from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group report.
Ocean Acidification and Harmful Algal Blooms
Adaptation efforts for ocean acidification are limited. Reducing carbon emissions is the only way to slow
the amount of C02 entering the ocean. Like the atmosphere, oceans operate on a global scale, so even
with Bellingham’s emissions reduction the acidification of the ocean will likely persist. Reducing other
external pressures on sea life will increase resilience to elevated acidity levels. Protecting existing
habitat will be critical to maximizing shellfish and other species survival. Ensuring strict compliance with
ESA and CWA regulations will help protect fragile populations, as will continuing restoration efforts.
Ensuring that the “no net ecological loss” aspect of the Shoreline Master Program is adhered to will also
help protect essential habitat.
Bernie et al., 2010
Reducing nutrient inflow to Bellingham Bay would help reduce excessive algal growth. The statewide
phosphorus fertilizer ban (HB 1489), beginning in 2013, is expected to decrease the amount of
phosphorus and other nutrient laden stormwater runoff entering Puget Sound and Bellingham Bay.
Establishing education programs to promote community wide pollution reductions may also help abate
the nutrient loading occurring.
Further research is necessary to accurately assess the risk of climate change and HABs. Monitoring and
reacting to HABs will continue to be vital in ensuring public safety. If a more definitive link between
climate change and HABs is established, further adaptation measures should be developed.
Additional Measures
Education is vital for community members, particularly waterfront property owners, to understand risks
associated with climate change a sea level rise. Creating a real estate disclosure policy where
landowners and investors are informed of risk during purchasing would help educate those at highest
vulnerability. Continuing a community dialogue about new climate science and potential vulnerabilities
will foster public participation in climate adaptation.
More precise modeling of local sea level rise is essential to future decision making. Local sea level rise is
very complex and nuanced. Figure 3, illustrating potential inundation in Bellingham, is not intended for
decision-making. Funding a local sea level rise study would provide reliable and valuable information for
shoreline managers.
26
Utilizing eelgrass mapping and monitoring would enable more accurate predictions on effects of these
crucial areas. Developing a more thorough understanding of affects from on-shore activities will help
guide future decisions. Research is on going for eelgrass transplantation and other restoration efforts.
Results from research should be monitored and evaluated for use locally.
Sea level rise will manifest itself first in acute storm impacts. It is therefore important to collaborate with
emergency responders and planners to ensure there are adequate planning and sufficient capability to
address this issue. Working with property owners to educate them on the hazards of sea level rise as
well as developing a response plan in case of inundation will better prepare individuals and communities
for potential impacts.
Figure 20. Shoreline Response to Climate Change (adapted from Shipman 2009)
Geomorphic Settings in Puget Sound
Type
Description
Response
Impact
Bedrock, resistant to erosion
Minimal erosion or
change
Limited erosion
and inundation
Bluff
Erodible, often elevated
Accelerated toe
erosion, masswasting,
accelerated bluff
retreat
Landslides and
erosion,
modified bluff
habitats
Beach
Low lying spits and barriers.
Dunes. Often back-barrier
wetlands.
Erosion, overwash,
migration.
Breaching, shifting
tidal inlets
Erosion,
flooding, storm
damage, altered
backshore
habitat
Estuaries and Lagoons
Small, Sheltered estuaries
and lagoons. Stream mouths.
Tidal prism change,
altered inlet
dynamics, marsh
erosion/accretion
Marsh/habitat
loss, shoreline
erosion
Delta
Broad, low elevation alluvial
features at river mouths.
Sedimentation
patterns change,
altered riverine
influences, marsh
erosion/accretion,
inundation
Increase flood
vulnerability,
damage to dikes
and levees,
vegetation shifts,
difficult drainage
Artificial
Engineered, fill, hardened.
Usually low elevation
urban/industrial/residential
Limited change
Storm damage,
flooding
Rocky
27
Energy
Energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest is expected to change in the coming century.
Currently, hydropower supplies over 70% of the energy used in Washington (Hamlet et al., 2009). Puget
Sound Energy, Bellingham’s electrical utility provider, relies on hydropower for approximately 36% of its
energy supply (Puget Sound Energy, 2009). Climate change, however, is expected to change hydropower
production in the Pacific Northwest. Due to
potential streamflow regime changes, power
“We are acutely aware that climate change could
production on the Columbia River is forecasted to
have profound effects on hydro operations and
shift in the coming decades. Models suggest by
fish health. In fact, climate change is the
2020, winter generation will increase 0.5-4% and
overarching issue for the utility industry. It has
summer generation will decrease 9-11% (Hamlet,
the potential to change everything, including the
et al., 2009), with an annual decrease of 1-4%.
price of electricity, the timing of hydropower
These models do not take into consideration
generation, the resources utilities acquire and
possible loss of production to other
the way transmission operates because of the
environmental needs. Salmon, for instance, may
rise of variable resources.”
require altered flow releases due to historic and
-Bonneville Power Administration
future stressors.
Energy derived from fossil fuels will face changes as well. As air temperature increases, transmission line
sag increases, decreasing the amount of power that can securely be transported through lines
(Department of Energy, 2008). Thermoelectric power plants become less efficient with warmer ambient
air temperature (Department of Energy, 2008). Additionally, thermoelectric power plants (mostly
consisting of fossil fuel combustion) account for 49% of total water withdrawals in the United States
(USGS, 2011). Demand for water from agriculture, residential, commercial, industrial, mining and
environmental sectors will increase in the coming decades, limiting withdrawal abilities of power plants
(US Climate Change Science Program, 2008).
Furthermore, as emission reduction efforts continue,
focus will likely continue on electrical generation
plants, especially those derived from fossil fuels. Power
generation from these plants may reduce if emission
standards cannot be met. Other legislation may alter
electrical supply as well. Initiative 937, for example,
passed by Washington voters in 2007, requires energy
utilities to obtain 15% of their power from renewable
sources.
“The demand for water for thermoelectric
generation will increasingly compete with
demands from other sectors of the
economy such as agriculture, residential,
commercial, industrial, mining, and instream use.”
-US Climate Change Science
Program, 2008
The demand for energy will increase in the coming decades. Washington has had the seventh fastest
population growth rate in the nation over the past decade (2000-2010) and population is expected to
increase by 2.1 million people by 2030 (WSDOT, 2011). Cooling energy demand in the northwest is
expected to increase 240% by 2020 and as much as 400% by 2040 (Hamlet et al., 2009). Although
winters are forecasted to be warmer, heating energy demand is still expected to increase 22% by 2020
and 35% by 2040 (Hamlet et al., 2009). These models are simulating the Pacific Northwest, not solely
western Washington. Energy demand in Bellingham will likely differ from these predictions, particularly
in summer cooling demand. However, since Bellingham relies on distant energy generation, it is
imperative to assess both supply and demand from a regional perspective.
28
Creating greater energy autonomy would help distance Bellingham from regional and national
fluctuations in energy production and prices. Achieving this will require a long-term approach to energy
conservation and efficiency, as well as local renewable energy development.
It should be noted that this report has not taken into account energy demands from vehicles. While this
sector represents a very large portion of the total energy usage of Bellingham, as of now, it relies almost
exclusively on oil. Staff found little research assessing direct climate change affects on production and
consumption of oil. Reducing emissions from vehicles will be vital in controlling GHG, but is not within
the scope of this aspect of climate adaptation planning. The Energy Resource Scarcity/Peak Oil (ERSPO)
Task Force outlined this issue with detail in 2009 including policy recommendations. These
recommendations will be considered in future renditions of adaptation planning.
29
Figure 21.
Mechanisms of Climate Impacts on Various Energy Supplies
in the U.S.
Energy Impact Supplies
Coal (22%)
Fossil Fuels (86%)
Natural Gas (23%)
Petroleum (40%)
Liquefied Natural
Gas (1%)
Nuclear (8%)
Hydropower
Climate Impact Mechanisms
Cooling water quantity and
quality (T), cooling efficiency (T,
W, H), erosion in surface mining
Cooling water quantity and
quality (T), cooling efficiency
(T,W,H), disruptions of off-shore
extraction (E)
Cooling water quantity and
quality, cooling efficiency (T, W,
H) disruptions of off-shore
extraction and transport (E)
Disruptions of Import Operations
(E)
Cooling water quantity and
quality (T), cooling efficiency (T,
W, H)
Water availability and quality,
temperature-related stresses,
operational modification from
extreme weather
(floods/droughts), (T,E)
Percentages shown
are of total domestic
consumption; (T =
water/air
temperature, W =
wind, H = humidity, P
= precipitation, and E
= extreme weather
events)
Biomass
Wood and forest
products
Renewables (6%)
Waste (municipal
solid waste,
landfill gas, etc.)
Agricultural
resources
(included derived
biofuels)
Wind
Solar
Geothermal
Possible short-term impacts
from timber kills or long term
impacts from timber kills and
changes in tree growth rates (T,
P, H, E, carbon dioxide levels)
n/a
Changes in food crop residue
and dedicated energy crop
growth rates (T, P, E, H, carbon
dioxide levels)
Wind resource changes (intensity
and duration), damage from
extreme weather
Insolation changes (clouds),
damage from extreme weather
Cooling efficiency for air-cooled
geothermal (T)
30
Energy Conservation/Efficiency
Energy conservation and increased energy efficiency are methods of both climate change mitigation as
well as adaptation. Although Phase III is focused on adaptation strategies (rather than mitigation), the
two are intricately related in the energy sector. Regardless
“Energy efficiency offers a vast, lowof avenue, energy use reduction reduces dependency on
cost energy resource for the U.S.
external energy supplies. Phase I and II of the Climate Action
economy…but only with an
Plan address a multitude of energy use reduction options,
innovative approach to unlock it”
which have reduced carbon emissions community wide.
-McKinsie Report, 2009
Energy use reduction can take many forms, ranging from
changing an incandescent to compact fluorescent light bulb, to converting an entire city to district
heating, to implementing smart grid technology. Likely, both small and large-scale efforts will be
necessary in the coming decades. City staff are continuing work from Phase I and II and are also
implementing and exploring additional measures, such as district heating.
Energy Production/Development
Developing local renewable energy sources will help buffer Bellingham against fluctuations in regional
markets, reduce carbon emissions and help create local sustainable jobs. According to the National
Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), future energy demands will likely be met with a multitude of
sources, instead of the current dependence on relatively few.
Efforts to produce local renewable energy are already underway and are currently being evaluated by
City staff. A hydroelectric project utilizing existing infrastructure from the Georgia Pacific intake is
undergoing feasibility studies. This project, if implemented, will use diverted water from Lake Whatcom
to spin turbines and generate electricity. Due to the projected increase of stream discharge in the
winter, an additional drainage from Lake Whatcom may
“Climate change presents a daunting
benefit habitat in Whatcom Creek, by allowing for lower
challenge for regional power planners.”
streamflows in the winter. Withdrawal may not be
-NW Energy Council
possible, however, during droughts or high water use.
A renewable energy assessment report is out of the scope of this document; however, it is an area that
merits future discussion and consideration. Geographically, Bellingham has several potential renewable
energy sources nearby. Tidal, geothermal, wind, and solar energy production are all currently being
explored and in many cases implemented in northwest Washington (Snohomish PUD, 2011).
Infrastructure
Although the City of Bellingham is not responsible for energy transmission facilities and infrastructure,
the community is dependent on these systems functioning properly for nearly every facet of everyday
life. It is therefore important to assess vulnerabilities to these facilities to help ensure a prepared
community. Threats to electrical infrastructure will likely be evidenced through increased heat and
extreme weather. Climate models are not accurate enough to project precise changes in weather
extremes, but research suggest that more intense rain and windstorms are possible with an altered
climate (McGuire et al., 2009). These pose threats to power and other utility transmission due to their
ability to down trees, flood waterways, reduce stability of slopes and knock over transmission towers.
While specific site vulnerability is out of the scope of this document, actively preparing for disruptions in
power and other utility supply would help foster community resilience. Working with Puget Sound
Energy and emergency planners/responders would increase awareness and preparedness for possible
future events.
31
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36
Appendix
37
Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Analysis Tool
Purpose:
The City plans, designs and builds projects with lifespans long enough to be impacted by future sea
levels. Therefore, it is important to consider sea level rise (SLR) on projects that have potential to be
adversely affected by elevated sea levels.
This document is intended to provide guidance for incorporating SLR into planning and decision making
for City projects. Providing a framework for analysis ensures projects account for the current and future
risks posed by sea level rise, and incorporate measures where necessary to increase resiliency to these
risks. The projections in this document are based on the “best available science”. Climate change science
is dynamic, thus this document will be updated as necessary to ensure the most accurate and up-to-date
science is being utilized.
While this document focuses on SLR, additional changes are expected, including a temperature rise of 310 degrees F by the end of the century, as well as a potential increase of precipitation. Projects sensitive
to temperature and/or precipitation should account for these changes in project design.
Understanding Sea Level Rise:
Global sea level rise is a result of additional freshwater contributed to the oceans via melting glaciers
and ice caps, as well as by the thermal expansion of water due to global warming. The rate of warming
directly affects the quantity of water added as well as the degree of thermal expansion. The largest
driver of this warming is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The 2007 IPCC 4th Assessment
Report projected that global sea levels will rise 7”- 23” by 2100. This estimate did not include the
accelerated rate at which ice sheets in Greenland, as data was insufficient at time of analysis.
Local sea level rise is largely determined by: the amount global sea level rise, land subsistence/uplift,
which can exacerbate or moderate rising sea levels, and local wind patterns, which can push water or
lower higher depending on prevalent wind patterns. These and additional factors were incorporated
into the 2009 University of Washington Climate Impacts Group’s Climate Change Impact Assessment
(WCCIA), a Washington State Legislative mandate, to evaluate the local impacts of climate change. The
“high” values for this report do include accelerated ice loss from Greenland, as confidence has grown in
this phenomenon as well as to capture the greatest range realistically possible. The following chart
outlining projected sea level rise for the Puget Sound.
High
Medium
Low
2050
22”
6”
3”
2100
50”
13”
6”
Although these numbers are not Bellingham-specific estimates, a significant difference between the two
locations is not expected.
The WCCIA report did not include probabilities or confidence intervals with these estimates as there are
still sources of uncertainty regarding future global GHG emissions as well as contributions of freshwater
from ice caps.
38
Potential Impacts from SLR
Site specific impacts in Bellingham will vary depending primarily on magnitude of SLR, local geology, and
shoreline usage. Potential impacts can include, but are not limited to:
 Temporary or permanent inundation
 Storm surge damage to public/private property
 Loss of wetlands and nearshore habitat
 Salt water intrusion into stormwater systems
 Decreased efficacy of gravity-fed waste water and sewage systems in low-lying areas
 Increased infrastructure maintenance costs
General Adaptation Principles
Adaptation refers to actions which reduce deleterious effects of, or increase resiliency to climate
change.
 Evaluating potential risk (potential for loss or harm) from SLR to a project
 Evaluating how likely the project is to be exposed to those risks
 Determining what the consequences of the risks would be
 Assessing whether there are options available to reduce the risk, impact or harm
General Adaptation Approaches
 Protect – Build protective barriers such as dikes or seawalls
 Retreat – Abandon or do not develop areas threatened by sea level rise
 Accommodate - Modify or retrofit a facility to enable functionality despite sea level rise
Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Analysis
Vulnerability Index = (Shoreline Proximity X Elevation) + (Project Lifespan X Cost)
An Excel spreadsheet has been created to assist project managers with determining risk posed to
projects by rising sea levels. This tool is intended to expedite the process of assessing SLR, by identifying
only those projects will be influenced. The analysis is based on the following:
Linear proximity to shoreline
Proximity to shoreline is significant for several reasons. A project with extreme proximity to the
shoreline (1-10ft) may face impacts, even if it is at an elevation higher than projected SLR (e.g., atop a
coastal bluff). However, a project a significant distance from the shore (100+ ft) faces significantly less
threat, even at a very low elevation (<10 ft).
Elevation
Elevation plays an important role in determining vulnerability. Low lying projects face the highest
threat, with higher elevations facing lower risk. Again, elevation and proximity are important to be
considered together, as they may exacerbate or ameliorate vulnerability.
39
Project Lifespan
Projects with longer lifespans face greater risks from greater magnitude SLR, as well as greater risk from
extreme high tides and storm events. Shorter-term projects have more capacity to be retrofitted or
redesigned as they will be replaced/removed in less amount of time
Project Cost
Projects with significant cost are given more weight as the potential loss is greater.
Additional analysis is triggered if the vulnerability index is a score of 40 or greater. A triggering of this
review does not necessitate specific adaptation action, rather it is intended to ensure potential harm
from sea level rise has been identified in projects, as well as potential actions that could mitigate loss or
harm.
Additional Resources:
http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetalSLR579.pdf
http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml
40
Acronyms
SLR – Sea level rise
SWE – Snow water equivalent
DOE – Washington State Department of Ecology
HAB – Harmful algal bloom
WDFW – Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife
41