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The Dynamics of Climate Change: Understanding and Influencing the Planet Andrew Jones, Climate Interactive XMILE Webinar – 8 October 2013 My Main Points • • System Dynamics • Powerful method Climate Change • Our insights • Our contribution • Need for communications across difference We Use System Dynamics When: 1. Urgent, important problem 2. Disagreements or misunderstandings about dynamics and cross-system interactions 3. Ideally, data-rich space. Past and/or future Motivation 1: Difficulty Assessing Results “...delegates [in Bonn] complained that their heads were spinning as they were trying to understand the science and assumptions underlying the increasing number of proposals tabled for Annex I countries’ emission reduction ranges.” “They all seem to use different base years and assumptions…: how can we make any sense of them?” http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12403e.html Current Confirmed Proposals Country 2020 2050 Other Australia 5% below 2000 60% below 2000 20% renewable energy by 2020 Brazil 36% below business-as-usual Amazon deforestation 70% below 2009 by 2017 China Carbon intensity 45% below 2005 Increase forest coverage 40M Ha by 2020 EU 20% below 1990 80% below 1990 Russia 20% below 1990 50% below 1990 US 17% below 2005 and so on ... Compiled by Climate Interactive, Feb. 2 2010 release, http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data Motivation 2: Pervasive Misunderstanding of Climate’s Dynamic Complexity John Sterman • Professor and Director of System Dynamics Group, MIT Sloan • Understanding Public Complacency About Climate Change: Adults' Mental Models of Climate Change Violate Conservation of Matter. – – Climatic Change, 80, 213-238. STERMAN, J. D. & BOOTH SWEENEY, L. (2007) Build upon work by our team Tom Fiddaman • PhD Thesis, MIT, 1997 – Feedback complexity in integrated climate-economy models • Ventana Systems Carbon Cycle and Radiative Balance • CO2 • CH4, N2O • PFCs, HFCs, SF6 etc. Other Forcings (10 layers) 9 • Aerosols, Black carbon • Carbon & heat transfer between surface & deep ocean C-ROADS Scientific Review Panel • “C-ROADS… This very rapid simulation model reproduces the response properties of state-of-the-art three dimensional climate models very well … and with sufficient precision to provide useful information for its intended audience.” • Dr. Robert Watson - Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and former chair, IPCC -- Panel Chair • Dr. Eric Beinhocker - McKinsey Global Institute • Dr. Klaus Hasselmann - Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie • Dr. David Lane - London School of Economics • Dr. Jorgen Randers - Norwegian School of Management BI • Dr. Stephen Schneider - Stanford University • Dr. Bert de Vries - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RIVM C-ROADS Calibration to AR4 Scenarios 11 At Copenhagen: “Country pledges to the UN are good enough” President Obama Briefed with C-ROADS 48 Hours Before Heads of State Meeting in Copenhagen U.S. State Dept’s Jonathan Pershing Presenting CROADS Results to the UN C-ROADS Used by Decision-Makers “I have to tell you — C-ROADS works, it is important, and it is already getting broad dissemination, ... I used it!” Senator John Kerry After UN Climate • Country pledges to the UN are not enough • Process for tracking using C-ROADS & other models China Provincial Sim Interface Meetings in Beijing At Tsinghua Univ. Simulation Used by Chinese Analysts in Support of Chinese Government Energy Policy C-Learn, Free Online Version The Climate Scoreboard World Climate – Role Play Exercise Play With the Sims • Beginner – iPad/iPhone: “Climate Pathways” • Intermediate – Search “C-Learn” online sim on “Forio” • Advanced User (Negotiator version) – Search “C-ROADS download” • Advanced Modeler – Email us and we’ll send the open source Vensim model • To Be Trained – Search “Climate Leader Interactive Course” – this winter ClimateInteractive.org [email protected]