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Human Influence on Weather/Climate Certainties: – We are causing a rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 Fossil fuel burning Destruction of forests – Cities are warmer, on average, than their suburbs Urban Heat Island Increased emission of heat (cars, people) Changes in water cycling Changes in surface area and heat capacity – We have destroyed a significant amount of stratospheric ozone – Higher global temperatures have correlated with increasing CO2 Caution! Know Your Axes! The perceived slope of a graph means less than you might think! -- Scale of Y-Axis -- Maximum slope with small range -- Minimum slope with large range -- What would graph to left look like if the scale was from 0 to 400? -- Scale of X-Axis -- Same idea- spread it out, decrease the slope Be sure you’re comparing “apples to apples” when looking at more than one graph! Land Use Changes The Dust Bowl – Prairie grass was plowed under and overgrazed – With no grass to hold the soil in place, a naturally occurring prolonged dry spell (drought) caused the bare soil to be carried away by the wind; lack of wind breaks (trees) The Middle East – Biblical reference to the tall cedars of Lebanon – Forests cut down, water cycling changed Trees/plants retain water, so more runs out of local area Transpiration: release of water vapor by plants is reduced; water cycle altered The Urban Heat Island: The Ultimate Land Use Change Localized climate change: T (city) > T (rural) – Water Cycling: Increased runoff = warmer daytimes (less cooling due to evaporation) – Increased surface area = more solar radiation can be absorbed, more IR emitted and re-absorbed at night; also higher heat capacity building materials – Autos, factories, people emit heat The Urban Heat Island: The Ultimate Land Use Change Temperature contours (isotherms) around a city show an “island” of warmth compared to the surrounding more rural areas. Ozone Depletion: Why We Care Ozone protects us from high-energy (short wavelength) UV radiation from the sun Measured in Dobson Units. Decreases in ozone will cause increases in skin cancer, and ozone levels have generally been decreasing. Ozone Depletion: Why it’s Happening Ozone is a highly toxic gas, which means it can be good or bad, depending upon where it is Good: In the stratosphere, where it protects us from much of the sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation, which causes skin cancer Bad: In the troposphere, where we are- it is poisonous! Chlorofluorocarbons destroy ozone very efficiently Ozone Depletion: There is Hope CFCs destroy ozone very efficiently – Destruction greatest in high latitudes – Have been banned and atmospheric CFC levels are leveling off – As atmospheric CFC levels decline, stratospheric ozone should recover, but there is a significant delay between CFC reduction and ozone recovery (~60 years) Ozone Depletion: Problem Solved? • CFCs have been replaced by HCFCs and HFCs, which are not as harmful to the ozone layer but are potent greenhouse gases • Montreal Protocol Ozone Depletion: Ozone “Hole” Ozone “hole” is an area over the south pole where stratospheric ozone levels have drastically fallen – Atmospheric conditions (extreme cold, polar vortex) lead to efficient ozone destruction: polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) – Winter/spring occurrence – Not as dramatic over the north pole Looks like ozone depletion has reached a maximum and ozone levels are increasing/improving, ever so s l o w l y… …but 2015 data show that in any given year there can be setbacks. A World Avoided… From Douglass, Newman & Solomon, The Antarctic Ozone Hole, an Update Global Warming: The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect The Greenhouse Effect keeps our planet about 60F warmer than it otherwise would be. Life as we know it depends upon this effect. Greenhouse gases (primarily water vapor and carbon dioxide) absorb/reemit IR radiation. Enhanced Greenhouse Effect is “Global Warming” – Too much of a “good” thing – Anthropogenic (human-induced) CO2: correlates well with temp. Methane CFCs – low concentrations, but very efficient IR absorbers http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-measurements-uncertainty.htm http://www.skepticalscience.com/trend_and_variation.html http://www.globalchange.gov/browse/multimedia/earths-temperature-variations Methane: another player Temperature data source: NASA What about cooling I’ve heard about? (PDO) Global Decadal Temperatures Global temperatures continue to climb. The 2010s are warmer than the 2000s http://www.chron.com/news/science-environment/article/Video-NASA-timelapse-footage-shows-Arctic-Sea-10424673.php Global Warming: Some Uncertainties Cloud cover: Should increase as temperature and condensation nuclei (pollution) increase, but type of cloud has an effect on surface temperature. Some cause cooling, some cause warming. Which type will increase more? Climate models still struggle with cloud prediction. Sea Level changes: Expected to rise as snow/ice melts, and as water warms (and expands), and is happening now, but some regions will see increased snowfall if planet warms, offsetting some, but not all of the sea level rise – Recent dramatic cooling of top 2,500ft ocean layer – More recent work on this ocean “cooling” – Island nations especially concerned Ocean Currents: Infusion of fresh water alters density, disrupts currents; local climate changes (warming and cooling) Climate change: Gradual or Rapid? – “slipping” glaciers lubricated by meltwater Sea Level Rise Thermal Expansion Icecaps and Glaciers (Greenland) Global Warming: Other Uncertainties Political Forces – Will countries play by the rules after ratifying a treaty? (Not happening for many countries now) – Should developed countries curtail their emissions and let developing nations continue until their emissions become “substantial?” – Should developing nations be denied the chance the U.S. and other developed nations had? No, it’s only fair. We can’t stifle their development Yes, we know more today about what we’re doing to the planet – Then, should developed nations cover the increased cost developing nations will incur to meet stricter environmental guidelines? After all, we screwed it up in the first place. – Carbon credit trading Why Climate Scientists and Environmentalists Worry (but why I think there is hope)… Note: This article is certainly critical of his views, but even though I’m concerned I am not convinced he’s unwilling to hear more about the science. Read carefully and keep an open mind… On Jan. 18, after Sanders had attacked Trump’s climate change views in the Democratic debate, Trump told Fox & Friends, "Well, I think the climate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax. A lot of people are making a lot of money. I know much about climate change. I'd be — received environmental awards. And I often joke that this is done for the benefit of China. Obviously, I joke. But this is done for the benefit of China, because China does not do anything to help climate change. They burn everything you could burn; they couldn't care less. They have very — you know, their standards are nothing. But they — in the meantime, they can undercut us on price. So it's very hard on our business." Trump may call the mention of China’s role a joke, but he certainly has a lengthy record of using the word "hoax" to describe climate change. On Dec. 30, 2015, Trump told the crowd at a rally in Hilton Head, S.C., "Obama's talking about all of this with the global warming and … a lot of it's a hoax. It's a hoax. I mean, it's a money-making industry, okay? It's a hoax, a lot of it." That’s three times using "hoax" in one sentence. Trump has also used the word on Twitter since his 2012 tweet. On Jan. 25, 2014, Trump tweeted, "NBC News just called it the great freeze — coldest weather in years. Is our country still spending money on the GLOBAL WARMING HOAX?" Paris Accord: Dead or Alive? And Finally….. Thinking about what it was like to be very dependent upon others for our energy needs and recognizing how things have changed, are we better off now? “And finally, most important of all, basing an economy on a commodity that [in my opinion] is controlled by the most backward, unstable, and violent countries in the world is madness.” (2006, but still relevant) - Craig Bohren, in USA Today Now we have fracking. So, is cheap energy and the potential for energy independence necessarily a good thing? Key Figures READ CHAPTER 18, it’s all important