Download Adapting Aviation to a Changing Climate

EUROCONTROL
Adapting Aviation to a Changing Climate
Key Climate Change Risks for Aviation
In recent years considerable effort has been put into reducing aviation’s impact on the climate. However even if mankind
stopped all carbon emissions tomorrow some climate change impacts are inevitable. Although aviation deals with disruptive weather on a regular basis such events are likely to become more extreme and more frequent as we experience the
impacts of climate change. So how can the aviation industry ensure the resilience of our infrastructure and the provision
of safe, reliable operations and passenger services in the future?
This factsheet explains some of the climate change risks for aviation1 and provides a starting point for carrying out a risk assessment for your organization. Please see the resource list and website www.eurocontrol.int/resilience for more information.
1
Note that these are selected examples only and the significance of these risks will vary according to climate zone, geographical location and type of
operations.
Climate risk
Precipitation change
Temperature change
Sea-level rise
Wind changes
Impact
n
disruption to operations e.g. airfield flooding, ground subsidence
n
reduction in airport throughput
n
inadequate drainage system capacity
n
inundation of underground infrastructure (e.g. electrical)
n
inundation of ground transport access (passengers and staff)
n
loss of local utilities provision (e.g. power).
n
changes in aircraft performance
n
changes in noise impact due to changes in aircraft performance
n
heat damage to airport surface (runway, taxiway)
n
increased heating and cooling requirements
n
increased pressure on local utilities e.g. water and power (for cooling).
n
loss of airport capacity
n
impacts on en-route capacity due to lack of ground capacity
n
loss of airport infrastructure
n
loss of ground transport access
n
convective weather: disruption to operations
n
convective weather: route extensions
n
jet stream: potential increase in en-route turbulence
n
local wind patterns: potential disruption to operations and changes to distribution of
Actors
noise impact
Extreme events2
n
disruption to operations, route extensions
n
disruption to ground transport access
n
disruption to supply of utilities
2
Sudden intense and short-lived precipitation and wind events e.g. storm surges, hurricanes, hail storms, lightning as opposed to seasonal or annual
changes
The risks identified above impact the provision of aviation services. However, it is also possible that climate
change will impact the demand for those services due to geographical or seasonal shifts in tourist passenger
demand driven by changing temperatures and conditions at popular destinations e.g. hotter temperatures or
reduced snow-cover. There is currently limited data to assess the risk; further research is required.
Aircraft Operators
Airport Operators
Air Navigation
Service Providers
External
Most of Avinor’s airports are scattered along the rugged Norwegian coastline, with several having runways less than 4m above sea level. Avinor
have been looking systematically into climate adaptation since the turn of
the century. But when new legislation was introduced in 2006, requiring
safety areas at the sides and ends of runways at several airports to be
expanded, theory had to be turned into practice. The seabed close to the
runways in question was very deep in some places. In collaboration with
technical experts this required looking into projections for future sea levels,
wind directions, wave directions and – in some instances – the underwater
topography to calculate the size, shape and amount of rocks needed to make
robust fillings which would be able to withstand future storms. A procedure
was developed for dimensioning criteria for safety areas close to the sea, as
well as a set of guidelines for low-lying coastal runways and strengthened
requirements for potential new runways – they now have to be established
at least 7m above sea level.
A comprehensive risk assessment of all Avinor airports, connected navigation
systems and surface access to the airports has recently been undertaken.
In general, more extreme weather events, storms and storm surges are
expected. Increased precipitation and freak rains challenge the drainage of
runways, aprons, buildings and other infrastructure. During the planning
phase of the terminal expansion at Oslo Airport and the related work on the
apron, for example, it was revealed that the new drainage systems were in
need of 50% added capacity compared with the drainage systems from the
1990s, when the airport was constructed. Amongst other things, it was also
discovered that the batteries for some of the NAV equipment are placed on
the floor at airports at risk of flooding. This will now be rectified.
Assessing Climate Change Risks for your Organisation
Case Study: Aena - preparing for higher temperatures
How can you assess whether climate change impacts will be a risk for your organisation? Here are some questions to get started with. The case studies
provide examples of some of the measures which aviation organisations are already taking to adapt to the potential impacts of climate change. For
more detailed information on carrying out a comprehensive risk assessment please see the resource list and website.
In 2012, a joint initiative between the Ministry of Public Works and the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment was launched to conduct a preliminary analysis of the
needs to adapt the core network of transport infrastructure in Spain to climate change.
The work identified higher temperatures as one of the key climate change risks to the
core infrastructure network. It then went on to determine which adaptation measures
could mitigate this risk.
WHAT WILL BE THE FINANCIAL
AND CARBON IMPACTS OF
INCREASED DIVERSIONS TO
AVOID STORM EVENTS ?
DO YOU KNOW HOW THE
CLIMATE WILL CHANGE IN
YOUR AREA?
WILL YOUR SYSTEMS
BE ABLE TO MANAGE CAPACITY
DURING MORE FREQUENT AND
EXTREME DISRUPTIVE WEATHER?
Key impacts identified include: new airport infrastructure should account for the rise
in energy demand for air-conditioning systems in terminal buildings due to increases
in temperature; potentially longer runways as higher temperatures mean lower air
density, a factor that reduces the thrust produced by aircraft and the wings’ lift.
CAN CHANGES TO THE JET STREAM
BE HARNESSED TO IMPROVE FLIGHT
TIMES AND PERFORMANCE ?
Proposed adaptation measures include assessing what additional restrictions the
current runway length may impose on the operation of aircraft in warmer temperatures
and the best operating alternatives when a runway requires lengthening and this is not
possible. At existing airports the usual practices aimed at reducing risks associated with
high temperatures and heat waves should be continued e.g. the pruning and removal
of dry vegetation in the vicinity of the airport, or campaigns for the prevention of fires.
HOW WILL TEMPERATURE CHANGES
IMPACT AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE AND
DEMAND FOR CABIN AIR CONDITIONING
ON THE GROUND?
DO YOU KNOW HOW
MUCH IT WILL COST TO
IMPLEMENT THE CLIMATE
ADAPTION MEASURES YOU
NEED?
ARE YOUR RUNWAYS
OR TAXIWAYS AT RISK
OF FLOODING?
24
Case Study: Avinor - wetter and wilder weather!
Preparing for more water at Norwegian airports
06
IS THE WIND LOAD FACTOR OF
YOUR CONTROL TOWER HIGH
ENOUGH TO HANDLE ANY
PROJECTED STRONGER
STORMY WEATHER?
However, the impact of both higher temperatures and other climate change risks on
the existing airport infrastructure will depend largely on the local conditions and the
specific design of each airport. Therefore, it is recommended that an in-depth assessment of the risks posed to airports is launched.
CAN YOUR AIR NAVIGATION
EQUIPMENT WITHSTAND
SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING?
Avinor’s experience is that minor adaptation investments in already planned
and/or ongoing projects can have positive impact on punctuality and regularity and save on future resources.
CAN YOUR DRAINAGE
SYSTEM HANDLE ANY
PROJECTED INCREASE IN
RAINFALL?
Case Study: NATS - Preparing for More Extreme Winter
Weather
Snowfall where it’s not expected or which is much heavier than normal
causes the most disruption to operations due to lack of preparedness. As
heavy snowfall events are currently relatively rare in the UK, part of NATS’
adaptation strategy involved developing a plan to deal with such events
should they become more frequent as our climate changes.
The strategy was put to the test sooner than expected in Winter 2010 when
heavy snowfalls and record low temperatures brought travel chaos and
disruption to Great Britain and Ireland. This led to severe disruption to the
road and rail networks with several airports being closed including London
Heathrow airport for a time.
NATS Response
During the period of disruption, NATS managed to maintain a full ATC service
with no disruptions. In response to the disruptive weather, NATS initiated
coordination calls three times a day with airport and airline stakeholders.
Standard operating procedures remained unchanged. However, the main
challenge in keeping the ATC service available was ensuring that staff could
reach work. This was achieved by providing accommodation for key staff
at hotels within walking distance of their workplace (e.g. at the airports)
and also by using Land-Rovers to shuttle key operational staff between
home and work. All key equipment (radar systems and radio communication systems) remained operational throughout the period, despite record
breaking low temperatures. NATS assets are designed to operate independently of the national grid (island sites) and NATS maintains a number of
suitable vehicles and access equipment to ensure the continuity of service
is delivered. This demonstrated that NATS has a suitable strategy in place
should such extreme and unexpected snowfall events become more
frequent as our climate changes.
WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
WITHIN YOUR ORGANIZATION?
CAN YOUR ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
AND CRITICAL SYSTEMS E.G. IT BE
MAINTAINED IN MORE FREQUENT AND
EXTREME DISRUPTIVE WEATHER?
CAN GROUND ACCESS TO THE AIRPORT
BE GUARANTEED IN CASE OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION E.G. RAIN OR SNOW?
1
Case Study: DGAC/STAC - developing a risk assessment methodology for French airports
Case Study: London Heathrow - preparing for changing winds and temperatures
As a result of climate change, the UK may experience more extreme summer and winter temperatures, as
well as changing wind speeds and direction, which can slow aircraft flow. One way Heathrow is mitigating
the impact of changes to wind is to introduce time-based separation (TBS) procedures, which we plan to
implement in 2015. TBS brings additional operational benefits in addition to providing future climate
resilience to Heathrow. Another measure we’re considering is vortex separations in crosswind conditions –
whereby under certain crosswind conditions the vortex is blown away, opening up the potential to reduce
separations a little and sustain aircraft flow. We’re undertaking more work and analysis in this area as
wind is a key issue at Heathrow.
Heathrow’s climate change risk assessment also examines how more extreme temperatures might affect
the airport pavements. We checked our standards and the risk from the effects of extreme temperature is
low in the near to medium term. In the longer term, say in 50 years or more, there may be more significant temperature increases. We revisit our adaptation response plan regularly to ensure that it is up to
date and that our engineering strategy is responding to these changing risks. We also feed our work into
the UK Government’s national adaptation programme.
A national climate change resilience programme was launched in France in 2011. It aims to prepare the country to both address and
take advantage of the effects of climate change. As a result, the French civil aviation authority (DGAC) is carrying out a three stage study,
VULCLIM.
So far, the VULCLIM project has drawn a complete picture of the likely climatic changes that could impact French airports by the end of the
21st century. Impacts have been identified, that could both positively or adversely affect airport infrastructure, construction and operations.
Then, based on the potential climate risks and their impacts, a method to assess the vulnerability of airports to climate change was developed. Taking the characteristics of a specific location, the method combines the probabilities of the occurrence of climate change risks and
the intensities of the potential impacts to assess the vulnerability of the location. DGAC applied the assessment methodology to two of
France’s top 5 airports, both located on the Mediterranean coast. Both cases have identified sea level rise and extreme precipitation as the
major threats to the locations considered.
Today, DGAC/STAC is working on the development of a tool aimed at helping airport operators to assess the vulnerability of their airport to
climate change. The tool, which is based on the assessment method developed, will provide airport operators and aviation organizations
with information on the weaknesses and strengths of any location to potential climate risks. It will highlight where an airport needs to take
actions in order to adapt and build resilience to climate change.
Aviation Climate Adaptation Resource List
A selection of resources for climate change risk analysis and adaptation planning. See the website www.eurocontrol.int/resilience
for further resources and full document references.
Resources on Climate Impacts for Aviation
Airport Cooperative Research Programme Synthesis: Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience
http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_syn_033.pdf
Comprehensive review of the range of risks to airports from projected climate change and the emerging approaches for handling these risks.
EEA Adaptation in Europe http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/adaptation-in-europe
Provides policymakers across Europe, at different levels of governance and stages of policy formulation, with information that can be used
to support adaptation planning and implementation.
EEA/EioNET: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Transport Sector http://cca.eionet.europa.eu/reports/TP_3-2013
Maps current actions in EEA countries for adapting the transport system to climate change and identifies opportunities for further action
at the European level in the next years.
EU Adaptation Strategy Package – Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/docs/swd_2013_137_en.pdf
Annex I provides an overview of climate risks and impacts for transport infrastructure, including aviation.
EUROCONTROL Challenges of Growth 2013: Climate Change Risk and Resilience
http://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/challenges-growth
Reviews climate change risks out to 2050 and identifies key actions which the industry can take to reduce those risks.
EUROCONTROL Challenges of Growth 2008: Challenges of Growth Environmental Update Study and Climate Adaptation Case
Studies http://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/challenges-growth
Analysis of climate change risks for the aviation sector. Case studies take an in-depth look at the potential impacts of sea-level rise, increased
convective weather and climate change-related changes in demand.
European Climate Adaptation Platform “Climate-Adapt” http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/
Support in adapting to climate change. Access and sharing of information on expected climate change in Europe, vulnerability of regions
and sectors, National and transnational adaptation strategies, adaptation case studies and potential adaptation options tools that support
adaptation planning.
ICAO Environment Report 2013 Chapter 7: Adaptation
http://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/EnvReport13.aspx
Series of articles on the possible adverse effects which aviation activity may experience as a result of climate change and the adaptation
measures which the sector can implement.
Resources on Risk Assessment for Aviation
DGAC Airport vulnerability on climate change
http://www.stac.aviation-civile.gouv.fr/publications/documents/vulclim-nit-A4-en.pdf
Overview of climate change risk assessment methodology for airports developed by DGAC France.
Heathrow Airport Climate Change Adaptation Reporting Power Report
http://archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/documents/adapt-reports/08aviation/heathrow-airport.pdf
Overview of climate change risk assessment carried out by Heathrow Airport Ltd.
NATS UK Climate Change Adaptation Report
http://archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/documents/adapt-reports/08aviation/nats-climate-change-report.pdf
Overview of climate change risk assessment carried out by the UK ANSP National Air Traffic Services (NATS).
Working Group for the Analysis of the Climate Change Adaptation Needs of the Core Network of Transport Infrastructure in
Spain. Final Report.
http://www.cedex.es/NR/rdonlyres/872032C9-00FB-4DF4-BFA3-63C00B3E8DF1/122814/ACCITFinalreportSeptember2013.pdf
Report on analysis of needs to adapt the core network of transport infrastructure in Spain to climate change, including the core aviation
network of 46 airports and two heliports.
© October 2014 – European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)
This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and it is not
used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL.
For further information please contact: [email protected]