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Download High resolution RCM simulation of eastern Mediterranean climate
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High resolution RCM simulation of eastern Mediterranean climate and its expected changes to 2050 Simon O. Krichak Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University ([email protected]) Abstract The eastern Mediterranean (EM) region is found in a transition zone between the aridclimate part of North Africa and the central Europe, which is characterized by temperate and rainy conditions. Due to its geographical location, the EM is affected by both the mid-latitudinal processes and those of the tropical zone. The sensitivity of the EM climate to the effects of the both climatic zones imposes additional requirements to the ability of the climate models to describe the effects. Modern global climate change evaluations usually based on application of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCM). Contemporary European AOGCM models are characterized by quite coarse (~200 km) space resolution, which precludes them from representing effects of small scale processes. Different scenarios of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), have been designed for such studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A number of different anthropogenic emission scenarios have been developed by the IPCC. Within the full range of the IPCC scenarios, A1B (IPCC 2007) expects medium-high increase of CO 2 concentration to about 700 ppm by 2100 and carbon emissions. The mixing of the CO 2 into the deep ocean maintains a slow surface ocean CO 2 increase, so in A1B the oceanic sink steadily increases. Also in A1B, fossil fuel emission increases until 2050 and decreases thereafter. Significantly less intense GHG anthropogenic emission is expected in B1 scenario, under which the CO 2 concentrations will increase only to about 550 ppm by 2100. Also in case of the B1 scenario fossil fuel emission is expected to increase until 2050 and decrease thereafter. Accuracy of representation of the EM climate (as well as the consequences of its variations nearby) with the AOGCM's is significantly limited by insufficient space resolution as well as by lack of the accuracy in description of effects of sub-grid processes. It is a widely accepted strategy to perform regional downscaling of AOGCM results by using them to drive regional climate model (RCM) simulations. A research effort on RCM simulation of the EM climate and its expected changes to 2050 due to anthropogenic increase of concentration of greenhouse gases is currently in process of realization at Tel Aviv University. The RCM model used in the effort is a state of science, third generation RegCM3 model (Pal et al. 2007) of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) [http://users.ictp.it/RegCNET/]. Dynamical component of the 1 RegCM3 model originates from those of hydrostatic version of compressible finitedifference NCAR/Penn State model MM5 using vertical sigma-coordinate system to account for topography effects. The experiment consists of the RegCM3 downscaling of results of global climate change experiments performed with two European AOGCM models – ECHAM5 of the MaxPlank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany and HadCM3Q of the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The RCM simulations currently in progress are performed at the Computational Center of Tel Aviv University using a cluster system running CentOS release 4.5 (using the space resolution of 25 km/18 levels) and Cray XT5 computer of the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre CSCS (14 km space resolution) 2