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WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAMME WORLD CLIMATE SERVICES PROGRAMME Meeting of the Commission for Climatology (CCl) Task Team on Climate Risk Management (TT­CRM) Guayaquil, Ecuador 13­14 October 2011 Final Report World Climate Applications and Services Division Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch Climate and Water Department WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION April 2012
The World Climate Programme (WCP) implemented by WMO in conjunction with other international organizations consists of the following major components (as per decision of the sixteenth World Meteorological Congress (Cg­XVI) in 2011: Global Climate Observing System World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) World Climate Services Programme (WCSP) World Meteorological Organization 7bis, av. de la Paix Case postale 2300 CH 1211 Geneva Switzerland Telephone : +41 (0) 22 730 81 11 Telefax : +41 (0) 22 730 81 81 Email: [email protected] NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Editorial Note: This report has for the greater part been produced without editorial revision by the WMO Secretariat. It is not an official publication and its distribution in this form does not imply endorsement by the Organization of the ideas expressed.
­ i ­ Participants at the Symposium on CRM (10­12 October 2011, Guayaquil, Ecuador) that was organized and facilitated by the WMO Commission for Climatology Task Team on Climate Risk Management (members of the Task Team are identified in blue text below). Second row (left to right): Keith Ingram (USA); Ousmane Ndiaye (Senegal); Glenn McGregor (New Zealand); Prasada Rao (India); Ing. Carlos NARANJO JÁCOME, Permanent Representative of Ecuador with WMO; Rodney Martinez (CIIFEN, Ecuador); Mohammed Kadi (ACMAD, Niger); G. Srinivasan (RIMES, Malaysia); Ian Robinson (World Food Programme); Shabbaz Mushtaq (Australia); Roger Pulwarty (USA) Front row: Gao, Ge (China); Habiba Gitay (World Bank); Pilar Cornejo (National Secretary of Risk Management, Government of Ecuador); Deborah Hemming (UK); Leslie Malone (WMO); Jennifer Guarlnick (UN­ISDR). Missing from the photo: Mercy Borbor (Vice Minister of Environment, Ecuador); Nury Bermudez (UNDP); Alexander von Hildebrand (WHO); Abdou Ali (Niger); Balaji Rajagopalan (USA).
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. OPENING AND ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING .............................................................. 1 2. DECISIONS OF THE WMO COMMISSION FOR CLIMATOLOGY RELEVANT TO THE TASK TEAM ON CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT................................................................... 1 2.1 OPACE­4: A BRIEF OVERVIEW................................................................................................... 1 2.2 REVIEW OF THE TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE TT­CRM, ITS WORKPLAN AND DELIVERABLES ............................................................................................................................. 2 3. THE CONCEPT OF CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT............................................................... 3 3.1 WMO AIMS FOR CRM ................................................................................................................... 3 3.2 DEFINITION OF CRM.................................................................................................................... 3 3.3 KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF CRM............................................................................................. 3 4. BEST PRACTICES IN CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT........................................................... 4 4.1 RECOMMENDED STEPS AND PRACTICAL DETAILS ............................................................. 4 4.2 CRITERIA FOR DETERMINING EFFECTIVE CRM.................................................................. 5 4.3 CASE STUDIES OF CURRENT PRACTICES IN CRM................................................................ 6 5. EXTENDING THE CONCEPT OF CRM TO WMO MEMBERS ................................................. 6 6. WORKPLAN .................................................................................................................................... 7 7. CLOSING.......................................................................................................................................... 8 ANNEX 1 AGENDA ....................................................................................................................................... 9 ANNEX 2 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ......................................................................................................... 11 ANNEX 3 CCL SYMPOSIUM ON CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT: CONCEPT NOTE ................... 13 ANNEX 4 CONCEPTS AND DEFINITION OF RISK AND CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT ........... 15 ANNEX 5 SYMPOSIUM DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS ............................................................................ 17 ANNEX 6 TEMPLATE FOR DESCRIBING CRM CASE STUDIES ........................................................ 23
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MEETING OF THE COMMISSION FOR CLIMATOLOGY (CCL) TASK TEAM ON CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT (TT­CRM) 1. OPENING AND ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING The meeting of the Task Team on Climate Risk Management (TT­CRM) was held from 13­14 October 2011, at CIIFEN Headquarters, in Guayaquil, Ecuador. The chair of the Task Team, Dr Hemming, and the WMO Secretariat (Mrs Malone) welcomed the participants and noted appreciation of their active participation in the Symposium on Climate Risk Management (10­ 12 October 2011, CIIFEN, Guayaquil, Ecuador). The Symposium had provided a comprehensive overview on Climate Risk Management from the perspectives of a number of international organizations and agencies and Member countries, along with an overview of the Commission for Climatology, and the concepts of the Global Framework for Climate Services. All members of the Task Team had provided inputs to that programme. The meeting adopted the Agenda (attached as Annex 1). The List of Participants is attached as Annex 2. The Team noted that several members were unable to participate (Svetlana Dolgikh (Kazakhstan) and Heikki Tuomenvirta (Finland)). The objectives of this meeting were to review and revise, as needed, the Terms of Reference (ToRs) of the TT­CRM, and to consider development of materials in line with those ToRs, incorporating the advice and recommendations of the CRM Symposium. 2. DECISIONS OF THE WMO COMMISSION FOR CLIMATOLOGY RELEVANT TO THE TASK TEAM ON CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 2.1 OPACE­4: A brief overview A brief overview of the Commission for Climatology, including the Open Panel of CCl Experts on Climate Information for Adaptation and Risk Management (CCl­OPACE 4) was provided by Dr Rodney Martinez, co­chair of OPACE­4. Dr Martinez noted that the OPACE 4 co­ chairs are himself and Dr. Albert Martis, and informed that:
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CCl structure has four Open Panels of CCl Experts (OPACEs): Climate Data Management (OPACE­1); Climate Monitoring and Assessment (OPACE­2); Climate Products and Services (OPACE­3); and Climate Information for Adaptation and Risk Management (OPACE­4);
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OPACE­4 was established by the Commission with four expert and task teams (on Climate Risk and Sector­Specific Climate Indices; User Participation in Climate Outlook Forums; User Interface; and on Climate Risk Management;
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The objective of OPACE 4 is to improve decision­making for planning, operations, risk management and for adaptation to both climate change and variability (covering time scales from seasonal to centennial) and will be achieved through a higher level of climate knowledge, as well as by access to and use of actionable information and products, tailored to meet their needs;
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The activities to be undertaken under OPACE­4 should primarily focus on development of tailored climate information, products and services for user application in adaptation and risk management, and on enhancement of the interface with user groups;
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The work of OPACE 4 is multidisciplinary, and requires close collaboration with experts from various socio­economic sectors. The core priority sectors for consideration by the OPACE are agriculture/food security and water, requiring close
­ 1 ­ collaboration with the WMO Technical Commissions for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) and for Hydrology (CHy). The broader set of priorities include others areas such as health, energy, urban matters, tourism, and coastal climate change;
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The activities of OPACE 4 will contribute to the Climate User Interface Programme (CUIP) and the Climate Services Information System (CSIS) components of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). 2.2 Review of the Terms of Reference of the TT­CRM, its workplan and deliverables 2.2.1 The TT­CRM reviewed the inputs and discussions of the Symposium that preceded this meeting on concepts of CRM, current practices, best practices and the recommendations made on the basis of the discussions held. The Concept Note for the Symposium (including its objectives, which were in effect to seek inputs from key stakeholders on CRM) is attached as Annex 3. Concepts and definitions of risk and of Climate Risk Management from the various stakeholders are presented in Annex 4. Highlights including ideas on best practices and recommendations from the Symposium are attached as Annex 5. The presentations from the Symposium can be found at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/opace/opace4/SymposiumClimateRiskManagement.php 2.2.2 Dr Hemming then reviewed the Terms of Reference developed earlier by the CCl Management Group for the TT­CRM, namely to i) develop a concept of Climate Risk Management; ii) find or develop examples of best practices in CRM already in use in different parts of the world (e.g. in water and agriculture sectors); and iii) develop a strategy for extending the concept of CRM to WMO Members (through training workshop(s) and educational materials (preferably for e­learning) and practical tools to apply CRM principles). The Team used the information developed through the Symposium as the basis for discussing its Terms of Reference, and agreed to the following expanded set of terms to guide its work:
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The concept of Climate Risk Management: o the background to risk o WMO aims for CRM o definition of CRM o key characteristics of CRM
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Best practices in CRM: o recommended steps (best practices) and practical details o criteria for determining effective CRM o case studies of current practices in CRM
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Recommendations of the Task Team, for extending the concept of CRM to WMO Members. 2.2.3 In discussion, the Team noted the importance of understanding the user’s needs with respect to climate risk, providing useable (applicable, actionable) information, effective communications and on­time dissemination of risk­related information to the vulnerable sectors. The full spectrum of this work may require interdisciplinary research and development of new tools, methods, procedures and practices, and certainly will require better communications and interaction with the users/sectors. The meteorological authorities could work directly with the priority sectors, but some will prefer to work through appropriate ‘boundary’ organizations. 2.3.4 The Team agreed to complete the discussions regarding workplan and deliverables for the TT­CRM later in the agenda.
­ 2 ­ 3. THE CONCEPT OF CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 3.1 WMO aims for CRM 3.1.1 The Team recalled the information presented during the Symposium on the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The GFCS has evolved over recent years as a Framework through which all stakeholders (including UN agencies, research and academic organizations, etc) could work together to address the concerns, amongst people, communities, sectors, and governments, related to climate variability and change, and to help reduce the impacts of these on their lives and livelihoods, and on development. Coping with the risks and any opportunities related to climate variability and change will require access to relevant credible, authoritative information and products. The GFCS, the main outcome of World Climate Conference­3 in 2009, is currently being developed to mainstream climate science into decision­making at all levels, and to ensure that countries and climate­ sensitive sectors are well­equipped to access, and to use the best available climate information in all relevant decisions. A key measure of success of the Framework will be when the information is used, and benefits are derived in terms of safety, profitability, trust, security and sustainable development. 3.1.2 In building of the concept of GFCS and in discussing its priorities and functions, the term ‘Climate Risk Management’ is often used, but there did not seem to be a single common view on what CRM is, on what it entails, and on criteria that could be used to evaluate ‘good’ CRM practices from poor ones. WMO conceived the Symposium on Climate Risk Management in order to invite the views and practices of key stakeholders for GFCS for setting up a common understanding of CRM. At the Symposium (10­12 October 2011, Guayaquil), extensive discussions took place on the views of the World Food Programme, the World Health Organization, the United Nations Development Programme, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and the World Bank, the World Meteorological Organization, from regional and academic centres and from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services from around the world. This information is expected to be used by the TT­CRM to meet its objectives, which include extending the concept of CRM and good practices in CRM around the world through WMO Members and in the activities of other GFCS stakeholders. 3.2 Definition of CRM The definitions of CRM used by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) encapsulate the concepts of CRM that the TT­CRM is keen to extend to WMO Members. The Team recommends the following definition of Climate Risk Management: ‘Climate Risk Management (CRM) is a systematic and coordinated process in which climate information is used to reduce the risks associated with climate variability and change, and to take advantage of opportunities, in order to improve the resilience of social, economic and environmental systems.’ 3.3 Key characteristics of CRM Based on experience and on the discussions during the Symposium, the Team agreed that the key characteristics of CRM would include the following:
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Collaboration of a wide range of actors (users and providers of climate information);
A coordinated, multi­disciplinary and multi­institutional management cycle;
Climate information customised to specific user needs;
Continual improvement in education and training of all actors to improve the service;
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Communication and dissemination of climate information services to the appropriate actors at the required time and space scales;
Monitoring, revision and improvement. 4. BEST PRACTICES IN CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 4.1 Recommended steps and practical details ·
The TT­CRM proposed the following approach to effective CRM: Step1: Awareness­raising in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs)
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Develop awareness of the fundamentals of CRM in NMHSs;
Develop a checklist to guide NMHSs on how to increase their capability for CRM;
Develop climate hazard profiles (general climate background and key climate­ related hazards for NMHS regions). Step 2: User and provider engagement
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Identify relevant climate related risks;
Identify who and what is at risk;
Identify stakeholders hazards and vulnerabilities to climate variability and change;
Evaluate stakeholders´ coping capacity and/or acceptable levels of risk (thresholds in indicators?);
Identify stakeholders requirements for climate information, products and services, and the relevant time and space scales;
Match climate provider’s capabilities (available climate information, products and services) with stakeholders requirements, and identify limitations (to manage stakeholders expectations);
Determine the stakeholders ‘entry points’ for use of climate­related information;
Establish or join in on mutually suitable mechanisms for regular interaction (e.g. working groups, RCOFs, NCOFs, user­driven forums);
Establish a monitoring and evaluation mechanism/protocols for system improvement (see Step 6). Step 3: Risk assessment
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Establish spatial and temporal risk assessment requirements;
Identify basic system interactions, relationships and feedbacks between the climate and other hazard drivers and user’s vulnerabilities – i.e. through system diagrams;
Decide on hazard and vulnerability indicators based on user needs;
Identify and collate the most suitable hazard and vulnerability data (may include past climate variability and change, current weather forecast and seasonal outlook, decadal, multi­decadal climate variability and change, and longer­term climate scenarios, at various time and space scales);
Identify detailed relationships between weather/climate and climate­related impacts i.e. from previous studies and knowledge and/or new analyses of datasets. Identify any thresholds in these relationships;
If no data exists consider techniques and tools for filling these gaps, including using Indigenous Technological Knowledge (ITK);
Conduct vulnerability and/or hazard assessment (past and future if appropriative) using the most suitable data;
If appropriate, conduct ´what if´ scenarios for planning future adaptations and developments.
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Step 4: Product, Tool and Communication creation
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Devise suitable tools and products for communicating risk information, i.e. risk maps, forecast products, advisories, warnings;
Create appropriate interfaces for web communications;
Develop outreach and public awareness techniques. Step 5: Capacity development
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Identify gaps in existing practices, allocation of resources, data etc. if appropriate find ways to fill the gaps;
Encourage training and outreach to improve cross­discipline understanding;
Encourage education in climate change adaptation as a part of human resources development i.e. the 5­year Masters degree in Climate Change Adaptation at KAU, Kerala, India). This can be new generation CCA course will contribute to the field of CRM;
Enable secondments and exchanges between climate and sectoral specializations. Step 6: Monitoring and improvement
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Assess monitored protocols (set up in Step 2) to demonstrate if CRM is effective and understand the benefits of the CRM process;
Review effectiveness of multi­agency collaborations;
Consider reorganisation / institutional changes to facilitate CRM services;
Encourage continual improvements. 4.2 Criteria for determining effective CRM ·
In order to assess the performance of CRM practices, the Team proposed the following criteria: Awareness raising
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NMHSs are aware of relevant climate­related risks;
Users are aware of capability of NMHSs to provide climate hazard information. User engagement
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Appropriate interactions between users and providers of CRM information have been established;
Users and providers have understanding of relevant climate­related risks;
Providers are aware of users needs for climate hazard information;
Users are aware of limitations of climate hazard information;
There is a clear understanding of the responsibilities, i.e. who is responsible and when – what are the entry points for different people/agencies in the CRM process;
A monitoring and evaluation process has been put in place to understand if CRM is effective. Risk assessment
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The time and space scales for the risk assessment have been established;
Suitable hazard and vulnerability data has been identified and collated;
The climate data are tailored to user needs, i.e. through suitable indicators;
There is an understanding of the sensitivities, interactions and feedbacks between the climate hazards and vulnerabilities, and how these influence the risks.
­ 5 ­ Product and tool creation
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Suitable tools and products for communicating the risk information have been produced and disseminated to the most appropriate people at the right time;
Communication of climate­related risk information is provided to wider public if appropriate. Capacity development
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Users and providers have appropriate expertise in CRM and, if appropriate, sectors;
Training is possible if required to improve user and provider understanding of CRM. Monitoring and improvement
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Mechanisms are in place to regularly monitor, review, and improve (if necessary) the current CRM processes and/or effectiveness of multi­agency collaborations. 4.3 Case studies of current practices in CRM The Team developed a template (see Annex 6) to be used to identify, in a systematic manner, current practices in CRM that follow the recommendations above. It is proposed that this template be used to initially to describe a number of examples presented at the Symposium, and to subsequently develop other case studies along similar lines as a task of the TT­CRM, in collaboration with WMO experts, and those of partnering agencies. 5. EXTENDING THE CONCEPT OF CRM TO WMO MEMBERS Considering the importance of management of the risks and opportunities associated with climate variability and change, the role of CRM in the functioning of an operational GFCS, and the interest of key stakeholders in the CRM process, the TT­CRM recommended that WMO and its Members along with partnering agencies undertake to seek funding for, to develop and to implement the following, in order that the full potential of weather and climate services for CRM can be realized: (i) To encourage cross­sector integration:
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Pilot or demonstration CRM projects (e.g. in the west coast of South America) that utilize the recommended CRM practices to enable refinement for the process; that develop capacity with users and other relevant agencies; that show partnership and cooperation and how to overcome barriers to cooperation; and that can be used to show decision­makers the benefits of the CRM approach for dealing with multiple scales of risk (high priority);
Awareness raising on climate risk for the agriculture, water and health sectors;
Improved cooperation of NMHSs, WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and regional sector­specific organizations in CRM activities. ·
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(ii) To support training and capability building:
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An accredited (online) training programme on the fundamentals of CRM (involving CoCOM, COMET among others) with NMHS director approval (high priority);
Engagement of Universities with programmes on CRM, adaptation and related subjects to provide up to date climate guidance and input on basic training (high priority);
Basic guidance on CRM (including distribution to Members);
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Improved capacity of NMHSs for the hardware and software needed for development of information and products to support CRM. (iii) To develop the science of CRM:
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A checklist (clear, easy to follow, no regrets steps to follow) in English (final versions written in local languages) to help NMHSs and users improve their capability for applying a CRM approach (high priority);
A collection of CRM case studies and templates for case studies and comparison of these with the recommended practice (high priority);
Publication of the papers developed from the Symposium in a Special Issue of a key journal suitable for CRM, to include references and case studies (high priority);
A review of the existing CRM literature and current and future projects to support the development of CRM internationally;
Exploration of the possibility of developing a climate classification based on past data in different 30­year periods to improve basic understanding of shift in climate across different regions of the globe. ·
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The matter of funding of the recommended activities above, particularly for implementation in developing countries, is an overarching priority, for which all possible sources should be explored. Sources would include the WMO Development and Regional Activities Department (DRA), including its WMO’s Resource Mobilization Office (RMO). As well, CRM implementation is highly relevant to implementation of the GFCS. Of the recommendations above, the TT­CRM agreed to focus first on the publication of the outputs of the CRM Symposium, and to include in it all materials that would fulfil its responsibilities under its revised Terms of Reference. Subsequent to this being accomplished, the Task Team could identify additional tasks, and update the workplan accordingly in that light. 6. WORKPLAN Based on the above noted recommendations, the TT­CRM updated its workplan for completion in this intersessional period (noting that the workplan is a living document that will evolve over time): Activities Set up the TT Actions Identify lead, members and key contributors and amend provisional ToRs as required; Agree on Action Plan and time line Hold a 1. Secretariat logistics meeting of the 2. Develop agenda and other TT­CRM documents 13­14 3. Develop meeting report October 2011 Poster on Develop poster on CRM for CRM WCRP Open Science Conference 2011 Symposium Organize a Symposium on CRM, 10­12 October 2011 Checklist Develop a checklist to help NMHSs improve their capability to support CRM Outputs Information to MG on TT members, final ToRs and expected deliverables. Report and updated work plan Milestones 14.10.2011 03.04.2012 Progress 03.04.12 Accomplished Meeting accomplished Report drafted, for comment poster 4.10.2011 Accomplished Presentations, recommendations Checklist 12.10. 2011 Accomplished ­ 7 ­
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Activities CRM publication 7. Actions Based on inputs to Symposium, develop publication in peer­reviewed literature, to include case studies that exemplify good practices in CRM Outputs Milestones Chapter in a 14.10.2011 special edition of a journal, and April 2012 information on this paper disseminated to Members Progress 03.04.12 Initiative launched as proposal Contributions expected from participants CLOSING 7.1 The workplan consolidates the key decisions of the Task Team regarding the activities this current Team will undertake for the remainder of this intersessional period. The Task Team could undertake additional work in keeping with the recommendations identified in item 5 above, and would seek the guidance of the WMO Secretariat and the CCl management Group in this regard. There was no other business tabled for discussion. 7.2 Drs Hemming and Martinez (Chair and host respectively) and Mrs Malone, on behalf of WMO, thanked the participants for their contributions and for their future work in implementing the workplan of this Team. Participants very much appreciated the hospitality and support offered by Dr Martinez and his staff at CIIFEN, for the Symposium and for the Task Team meeting. The meeting closed at 15:00 on 14 October 2011.
­ 8 ­ Annex 1 Agenda 1 OPENING 2 ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING 3 REVIEW OF DECISIONS OF THE WMO COMMISSION FOR CLIMATOLOGY RELEVANT TO THE TASK TEAM ON CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 4 DEVELOP THE CRM CONCEPT 5 IDENTIFY BEST PRACTICES 6 DEVELOP A STRATEGY TO EXTEND CRM TO MEMBERS 7 DEVELOP WORKPLAN OR RECOMMEND A NEW MECHANISM FOR FURTHER STEPS 8 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 9 ANY OTHER BUSINESS 10 CLOSING
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Annex 2 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS Dr Shahbaz MUSHTAQ Research fellow Acting Deputy Director Research Australian Centre for sustainable catchments University of Southern Queensland West Street, TOOWOOMBA 4350, Queensland Australia Tel.: +61 7 46312019 Fax: +61 7 46315581 [email protected] MEMBERS Dr Ge GAO Deputy Director Climate Application and Service Division National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie BEIJING 100081 China Tel.: +86 10 68406915 Fax: +86 10 68406975 [email protected] INVITED EXPERTS Mr Rodney MARTINEZ Scientific Coordinator International Research Centre on el Nino (CIIFEN) Escobedo 1204 and 9 de Octubre GUAYAQUIL Ecuador Tel. +593 4 2514770 Fax +593 4 2514771 r.martinez@ciifen­int.org Dr Deborah HEMMING Manager Climate Impact Analysis Met Office FitzRoy Road EXETER, Devon EX1 3PB UK Tel.: +44 1392 885715 Fax: +44 1392 885681 [email protected] WMO SECRETARIAT World Meteorological Organization 7bis, avenue de la Paix Case postale No. 2300 1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland Mr Mohammed KADI Secretary General ACMAD BP 13184 NIAMEY Niger Tel.: +227 20 734992 Fax: +227 20 723627 [email protected] Mrs Leslie MALONE Scientific Officer Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch (CLPA) Climate and Water Department (CLW) World Meteorological Organization 7bis, avenue de la Paix Case postale No. 2300 1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland Tel.: 41 22 730 8220 Fax: 41 22 730 8042 [email protected]
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Annex 3 CCl SYMPOSIUM ON CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT: CONCEPT NOTE CIIFEN Headquarters, Guayaquil, Ecuador, 10­12 October 2011 Introduction As understanding of the climate system grows and as society becomes more aware of the potential benefits from use of this knowledge, communities are seeking the tools and knowledge for climate risk management (CRM) including for adaptation, and will increasingly expect that these services are: accessible, dependable, usable, credible, authoritative, responsive, flexible and sustainable. Recognizing the need to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science based climate monitoring and prediction services ensuing from the above, the World Climate Conference – 3 held in Geneva from 31 August to 4 September 2010, proposed to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). Subsequently, the 16 th World Meteorological Congress (Cg­XVI, Geneva, Switzerland) decided to support and facilitate the implementation of the GFCS as a priority of the organization. The Commission for Climatology is promoting this event on CRM with the aim to guide the establishment of procedures and processes to support GFCS operations and facilitate the implementation of the GFCS. The GFCS is designed to mainstream climate science into decision making at all levels and help ensure that every country and every climate­sensitive sector of society is well equipped to access and apply relevant climate information, enabling an adjustment of planning and decisions to optimize the given situation. The application of climate services must therefore involve close interaction between all stakeholders including the providers and the users, and requires concerted multi­disciplinary efforts. The overarching aim of this Symposium is to help both providers and users of climate information in the development and effective use of information on climate variability and change, in an operational ‘no regrets’ sense, in minimizing climate­related risks and maximizing any opportunity that may arise, the essential principle of CRM. Objectives of the Symposium 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Define a concept of climate risk management pertinent to WMO and partnering agencies to underpin implementation and operation of the global framework for climate services (to include elements such as: user requirements; establishing baselines for climate risk; assessing future climate risks and opportunities; advice on adaptation; requirements for communications, feedback and process improvement, etc.) Identify and assess existing risk management techniques and coping strategies in use in different sectors, for dealing with extreme weather, climate and water events; lack of information on and/or understanding of climate variability and change; inadequate understanding of user’s susceptibility Identify challenges to risk management and adaptation, particularly in developing countries Identify best practices in CRM in use in various sectors Identify the requirements for weather, climate, water and environmental information and products used in successful CRM techniques to, inter alia, help characterize the risks to and opportunities for the sectors for improved decision making Develop recommendations for extending the concept of CRM to WMO members and in developing effective operational risk management strategies at national scale
­ 13 ­ Expected outcomes Senior experts in the fields of agriculture, water resources, health and disasters, and with global expertise in operational CRM will be invited to prepare authoritative discussion papers to address the above objectives. In addition to presentations by experts, the programme will feature ample opportunity for discussion of the sector­specific and multi­disciplinary aspect of CRM. Following the Symposium, the discussion papers and recommendations will be published, and should serve as a valuable source of information to WMO Members and partners for consideration in designing and implementing operational activities under the Global Framework for Climate Services. Recommendations from the Symposium will be considered at the session of the Commission for Climatology Task Team on CRM (immediately following the Symposium) and will directly contribute to the development of the concept paper on climate risk management, collection of examples of best practices in CRM in various sectors and a strategy document outlining the CRM concept to Members, along with proposals for development and implementation of relevant training outreach initiatives etc. Structure of the Symposium 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Opening and welcome Organization of the meeting Key issues for Climate Risk Management a. the Global Framework on Climate Services b. Operational aspects of CRM c. Longer­term aspects of CRM d. Round table ‘warm­up’ discussions on stakeholders and partners and their requirements; vulnerability and susceptibility to climate variations and change; timescales and components of CRM; current short­term and long­ term CRM practices at global, regional and national scales Managing climate risks and opportunities in the agricultural and food security sectors Managing climate risks and opportunities in the water resources sector Managing climate risks and opportunities in the health sector Breakout groups to discuss topics such as: a. Understanding and reducing risks associated with climate extremes and hazards b. Multi­disciplinary aspects (food water health and hazards) of CRM c. Roles of various stakeholders and partners (NMHSs, academia, learned societies, private sector, etc) d. Setting a baseline (survey?) Key findings and recommendations: a. CRM elements, range, scope, contributors and users b. Criteria for identification of best practices, and collection of appropriate examples c. Implementing CRM and supporting it through improved climate information, products and services Closing
­ 14 ­ Annex 4 CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS OF RISK AND CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT Participants in the Symposium reviewed various definitions of risk, and of Climate Risk Management, namely: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
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“Risk refers to the expected losses from a particular hazard to a specified element at risk in a particular future time period…”
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UNDP’s CRM approach takes into account both the risks triggered by current climate variability and projected climate change trajectories. CRM focuses on climate­related development sectors that are sensitive to both climate variability and change, such as agriculture, water resources, food security, health, the environment and livelihoods. For UNDP, managing and preventing climate risks implies the rethinking of “business­ as­usual” development paths, policies and institutional frameworks. It also entails strengthening local, national and regional capacities for designing and implementing risk management measures, through coordination of a wide range of stakeholders, including the UN system, national governments, nongovernmental organizations, civil society organizations and members of the scientific community. http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/crisis%20prevention/disaster/3Disaster%20Risk %20Reduction%20­%20Climate%20Risk%20Management.pdf UK
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UKCIP: “commonly defined as the product of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of a consequence”
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UKMO: typically, risk is a combination of hazard and vulnerability, where ‘hazard’ is a measure of the probability and magnitude of weather and climate events (e.g.: Flood, Cyclone, Drought), and ‘vulnerability’ is a combination of exposure, resilience and adaptive capacity. It is measured using social, economic, and infrastructure variables. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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“Risk combines the magnitude of an impact with the probability of occurrence”
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Risk management is defined as the culture, processes and structures directed towards realizing potential opportunities whilst managing adverse effects (AS/NZS, 2004). Risk is generally measured as a combination of the probability of an event and its consequences (ISO/IEC, 2002; see also Figure 2.1), with several ways of combining these two factors being possible. There may be more than one event, consequences can range from positive to negative, and risk can be measured qualitatively or quantitatively. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch2s2­2­6.html AGO
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“Combination of the likelihood of an occurrence and the consequence of that occurrence”
­ 15 ­ International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
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Climate Risk Management is the use of climate information in a multidisciplinary scientific context to cope with climate's impacts on development and resource­management problems. Climate Risk Management covers a broad range of potential actions, including: early­response systems, strategic diversification, dynamic resource­allocation rules, financial instruments, infrastructure design and capacity building. In addition to avoiding adverse outcomes, Climate Risk Management seeks to maximize opportunities in climate­sensitive economic sectors through improved resource management. It confronts the question of climate change adaptation by focusing on actions that can be taken today, to improve outcomes today and to understand and anticipate the interactions of economic, environmental and social systems with the climate into the future ( http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt)
­ 16 ­ Annex 5 SYMPOSIUM DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS The Symposium offered opportunities for key stakeholders in Climate Risk Management to express their views in presentations and through breakout and plenary discussion sessions. Some highlights of these discussions include:
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There are a number of existing Risk Management Frameworks incorporating climate information, such as the Australia­New Zealand Standard (see Figure 1) and the UK Met Office Climate Impacts & Risk assessment Framework (see Figure 2). Figure 1: the Australia­New Zealand Standard Figure 2: the UK Met Office Climate Impacts & Risk Assessment Framework
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For sustainable weather and climate services in support of effective Climate Risk Management, it is necessary to improve the integration of user needs into the science. Key steps in a user­targeted CRM process would include: o o o o o o o ·
The service provider using the latest weather and climate science and tools to develop high­quality assessments, information, analyses and predictions; Strengthening regional and national capacities to develop, produce and deliver high­quality, reliable climate information and products; Engagement of the user communities to raise their awareness and knowledge of climate and to identify their decision systems, their vulnerabilities and their priority requirements for climate information and products; Tailoring the climate information and products to meet user’s needs; Improved communications including dissemination of information (information must reach the vulnerable people including the governments, relevant persons in the sectors, intermediaries and boundary organizations, the public, indigenous groups, etc.); Ensuring the message(s) in climate information and products are pertinent to the users, understandable (less technical jargon, more user friendly), with blended information that is actionable – essential to building confidence and trust; Continuing engagement of the users, because as their understanding and awareness increase, their requirements will evolve, and feedback from the users is a vital part of continual service evaluation and improvement.
Elements of CRM may include: o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Historical climate analysis/knowledge (trends, patterns, means, extremes, variability, indices, etc) for meteorological variables of interest to the user, and of major oscillations e.g. MJO, ENSO, etc), in formats such as risk maps, time series, tables, etc. (role of NMHSs, maybe academia) (time and space scales required, and formats, to be defined by users); Sector surveillance, information collection and analysis; Interdisciplinary analysis/assessment; User requirement analysis; Integration with local knowledge, indigenous knowledge systems; Climate forecasts (monthly, seasonal, interannual, decadal...); Climate watch mechanism; Weather Watch and (weather scale) EWS; Information and knowledge management system (collection, storage, dissemination) ; Communications mechanisms; Risk assessment mechanisms (climate is one of many risks for users) – in this sense, ‘risk’ covers both positive and negative aspects; Vulnerability assessment including social, economical, environmental and institutional dimensions; Risk transfer mechanism; Networking, collaboration, partnerships: all participants know their roles and responsibilities (scientific academic and research communities, operational producers, user communities, extension services, boundary organizations, media, etc) ; Policy and legislative mechanisms to promote effectiveness, sustainability and coordination; Feedback mechanisms and responses for system improvement; Monitoring and evaluation mechanism.
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Regional (and National) Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs and NCOFs) are excellent mechanisms for discussions between providers and users of climate information, and should be considered a good practice in CRM – the COF process should be expanded to more regions/countries, and improved to increase the benefits to users, and to ensure co­ownership across all stakeholders;
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FEWSNet is also a good example of a best practice in CRM – this programme links climate with vulnerability and other sector information to support decisions related to food security;
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The ‘Methods for Engaging Stakeholders to Develop Climate Risk Management Systems’, developed by the Southeast Climate Consortium in the USA by a number of cooperating universities, and recommended by WMO’s Commission for Agricultural Meteorology, integrates natural resources sciences (for land, water, climate and energy) with application sciences, for specific sectors including agriculture. This collaborative, interdisciplinary approach, with the interactive engagement of user communities from the outset, is the result of learning by experience, and represents a good practice in CRM.
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The National Integrated Drought Information System in operation in the USA also exemplifies good practices – this NIDIS approach includes public awareness and education, engagement of preparedness communities, integrated monitoring and forecasting, interdisciplinary research and applications, and a clearing house for dissemination of information and products. It recommends working across organizational boundaries for joint monitoring and fact­finding, and proactive approach. Effective partnerships between the relevant stakeholders support cost­ effectiveness, sustainability and cohesion.
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User communities need help to understand climate variability and change, to appreciate impacts on lives and livelihoods and to identify climate risk profiles;
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CRM model needs to be adaptable and flexible, able to factor in new issues and user needs, and take into account new or improved knowledge, methods and tools;
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The CRM approach should include ‘No regrets’ options or ‘Co­benefits’ – goals that make sense anyway;
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Monitoring and evaluation are essential to CRM, to set baselines, to chart if objectives are being achieved;
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There are no substitutes for locally observed, HQ climate data – use of reanalysis data, interpolated data, satellite data, model data are ok in interim, but it is really important to have the observed data for services and CRM;
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Data must be shared and used to strengthen analyses and predictions;
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Prediction skill needs to be improved in some regions;
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Capacity development for both providers and users needs to be implemented with the least delay possible (climate field schools; COMET training; distance learning; etc);
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Multiple agencies and programmes are working towards the concept and practice of CRM – pooling initiatives, resources, knowledge and good practices makes sense – especially in consideration of implementation by all relevant stakeholders, of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS);
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Risk and climate risk management terminology needs to be developed in common with all stakeholders – any efforts by GFCS stakeholders, for example, needs to be in line with and respected by the RM community, but at same time, clear to new practitioners;
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CRM should contribute to the Millennium Development Goals, and support the stakeholders in meeting their existing objectives in that regard;
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Climate risks span short to very long timescales, and will encapsulate a range of existing efforts including hazard mapping, development of indices and indicators, Disaster Risk Management (short term dealing with current hazards) and adaptation to climate change (using long­term scenarios), both of which efforts are better developed than the use of seasonal to interannual climate information in risk management;
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Demonstration projects including multiple stakeholders and for key sectors (e.g. agriculture/food security, water resources, health, etc) to show the benefits of the use of climate information and good CRM practices would be very useful;
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Stakeholders need to be engaged from the outset: o o o o o o o ·
It is necessary to develop knowledge of historical and current climate risks: o o o o o o ·
Identify user’s vulnerability and sensitivity to climate variability and change, including suitable indicators (what factors, climate, land use, economic, etc. are to be considered). Identify user’s coping capacity, acceptable level of risk; Identify current practices in use for management of climate risk; Identify user’s requirements for climate information, products and services, and the relevant time and space scales; Determine the user’s ‘entry points’ for use of climate­related information; Identify climate provider’s assets (available climate information, products and services) and limitations (to assist user to manage expectations) ; Establish or join in on mutually suitable mechanisms for regular interaction (e.g. working groups, RCOFs, NCOFs, user­driven forums); Establish a monitoring and evaluation mechanism for system improvement and understanding the benefits of the CRM process (could include costs – benefit analysis process) – are the efforts really making a difference?
Identify the most suitable risk data (climate, user­specific, vulnerability data); If necessary, conduct vulnerability and/or hazard assessment using the most suitable data; Conduct multidisciplinary research necessary for CRM; Tailor historical climate information in the form of user­specific indicators; Develop products (i.e. risk maps); Establish the relationship and feedbacks between the climate drivers and user’s vulnerabilities.
It is important to develop information on future climate­related risks: o o Identify the most suitable risk data (i.e. forecast, prediction and outlook information for weather through to interannual scales; climate prediction including decadal and multi­decadal information, and long term climate scenarios and projections, at various time and space scales) ; Tailor the future risk information in the form of user­specific indicators (would be useful to expand currently predicted information beyond temperature, precipitation and SSTs);
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Training, education, capacity building are required for providers and users: o o o o ·
Develop products including seasonal outlooks, Watch bulletins, advisories, warnings, etc.
Training of meteorologists/climatologists, in adaptation and vulnerability and risk as a precursor to engaging in CRM efforts (NMHSs may need to consider the competencies required for CRM activity, and to recruit new skills), and in the science of the user’s discipline; Encourage incorporation of climate and climate risk in the training materials of sectors; Engage with University programmes in adaptation and related subjects (i.e. Kerala) ; Secondments and exchanges between climate and sectoral specializations (in CRM, it was proposed that WMO second personnel into adaptation/risk management projects) ;
The risk management cycle typically used different approaches for climate variability and climate change. For CRM, a cycle must include something that would move the user to a less vulnerable state (elevating and improving the user’s condition, reducing his vulnerability), and should be dynamic enough to capture how to cope with new threats that arise in future. It is preferred that the cycle not be linked to disasters as instigator. Preferably the cycle would start with planning and preparedness, not an event (a disaster). Understanding the benefits to be achieved from disaster prevention (managing current climate risks) fosters more success in getting buy­in for longer term risks. Cost effectiveness and co­benefits should feature in the cycle. Both analysis of the past, and foresight, should be captured. Integrated RM has 5 parts, including knowledge, planning/preparedness, response, mitigation, and risk transfer. Other parts of the cycle benefit from enhancing the knowledge component – better use of the historical data is required.
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Annex 6 TEMPLATE FOR DESCRIBING CRM CASE STUDIES Case Study Name: Locale, Region: Sector(s): Brief Description: What is/are the key climate­related risk(s)? i.e. flooding of houses/crops, decline in crop yield, reduced water availability, poor water quality, heat stress, outbreak of malaria… Who would be the main users of climate risk information? i.e. farmers, flood managers, emergency responders, local government, national government… What are useful indicators for the main climate hazards? i.e. Extreme rainfall (Precipitation totals and intensity), extreme temperature (Tmx, Tmn), humidity, drought index, storm surges… Are there any thresholds (percentiles or absolute values) in the hazard indicators? If yes, what are they? i.e. >20mm rainfall in 24 hours, night time temperature above 20degC… What are the main vulnerabilities? i.e. people living in floodplains, age (e.g. elderly people and children under 5 years), poor housing quality, people reliant on agriculture, poverty, illiteracy, poor health, inadequate governance… How is the risk currently managed? i.e. provision of forecasts from NMHS of extremes (e.g. heavy rainfall), provision of seasonal outlooks, disaster response only or preparedness and prevention activities in place… How is the risk currently communicated, and to whom? i.e. Forecasters telephone local government officer, alerts to a specific sector or to NGOs or other stakeholders, bulletins and alerts to the public…
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