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1 WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN 3. März 2008, KMK-BMZ-Fachtagung „Globale Entwicklung“, Bonn Globale Entwicklung am Beispiel Klimawandel Dirk Messner German Development Institute German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) www.die-gdi.de 2 Human security Destabilization of countries and regions New lines of conflicts and tensions globally Geopolitics of climate change Radical Transformation of the Earth System 3 Main message Climate change could unite the international community, recognizing climate change as a threat to humankind... If it fails to do so, climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division in international relations, triggering distributional conflicts over water, land, the management of migration, compensation payments between the countries mainly responible for climate change and those countries most affected by it`s destructive impacts .... 4 Szenarien Klimawandel ... 5° plus Welt: Radikaler Wandel des Erdsystems! a) Eiszeit – heute, b) Menschheitsexperiment, c) Erdsystem A2 EU - Limit 2º B1 ?! 5 Die CO2-Konzentration steigt 6 Long term impacts of GHG emissions 7 Reduction of GHG – emissions needed until 2050 8 9 Mitigation as an investment in international stability ... Avoiding unmanageable risks in the global earth system! Key actors in the furture: OECD, China/ India Other Latin America 2.9% Middle East 8.9% Africa 4.4% International navigation 0.7% OECD North America 12.8% Brazil 1.6% OECD Pacific 1.8% Other developing Asia 9.0% India 10.0% Projected Emissions growth 2004-2030 14 bn t CO2 = 55% China 39.4% OECD Europe 4.0% Russia 2.6% Other transition economies 1.8% 10 Dangerous climate change: impacts on societies Three Perspectives 11 First Perspective: „Tipping Points“ in the Earth System – Will societies be able to adopt? 12 Collapse of the Amazonian Forest: Radical transformations of eco-systems in very little time 13 WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Second perspective Climate change driven conflict constellations 14 Conflict constellation 1: Climate-induced decline in food productionConflicts on land 15 Droughts in the A1B-Scenario Ensemble-Projections 2080-2099 IPCC, 2007 16 Soil degradation & desertification (intensity and dynamic) 17 Conflict constellation 2: Climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources - conflicts on access to water 18 Access to Water (today) 19 Processes of desertification towards 2041/2070 (Hadley Centre) 20 21 Glaciers: Global Mass Balance World Glacier Monitoring Service 22 Glaciers in the Himalya: Importance for Water Supply ... Many people affected: agriculture/ water UNEP 2007 23 Cities Affected by Glacial Retreat (Lima effect) 24 Conflict constellation 3: climate-induced increase in storm and flood desasters - political instability/ economic crisis „New Orleans“ 25 Hurricans Hurrikan-Energie (PDI) Meerestemperatur (August-Oktober) Globale Mitteltemperatur Atlantik Messdaten: Hurrikan-Energie korreliert mit Meerestemperatur Beide sind deutlich angestiegen (Emanuel, Nature 2005) 26 Hurricanes: intensities and patterns (1960-2006) 27 28 Sea level Rise 88 cm 70 cm 21 cm 9 cm 29 Bay of Bengal and Ganges-Brahmaputra-MeghnaBay 30 Conflict constellation 4: environmentallyinduced migration 31 The third Perspective Climate change impacts on global politics 32 Climate Change - conflict constellations in world regions 33 Vulnerabilty towards climate change - New lines of conflict? Highest vulnerability vs. largest per capita CO2 emissions Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003) Largest per capita CO2 emitters Largest per capita emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability Highest social and CO / or2agro-economic vulnerability Highest per social and CO / or2agro-economic vulnerability Largest capita emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability Areas with highest ecological vulnerability 34 Overstreching the capacities of the global governance system - destabilization • Posible increase in the number of weak and fragile states • Risks for the global economy (Stern Report) • Growing distributional conflicts between the main drivers of climate change and the most affected (polluter pays principle; compensations) • Triggering and intensification of migration • Climate change undermining basic human rights (access to water, food): the „new human rights debate“ .... Legitimacy problems for the OECD (loosing soft power) • Limits of classical security policy: Impacts of Tipping Points could be unmanagable 35 WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN How to avoid dangerous climate change? The transformation towards a low carbon global economy 36 KOPENHAGEN 2009 Reduktionspfade zur Vermeidung gefährlichen Klimawandels Emissions per capita (tCO2eq./person) 30 Annex I 25 Global total Non-Annex I 20 15 10 5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 37 Towards 450 ppmv CO2 12000 10000 8000 6000 China EU 25 India 4000 Convergence level: 2–3 tCO2eq/cap 2000 Brazil Japan 2100 2090 2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2000 2010 Saudi Arabia 0 1990 MtCO 2eq USA 38 Exemplary transformation path: it shows that the sustainable transformation of global energy systemy is technologically viable WBGU, 2004 39 El potencial de energías rjfcjvlknovables hasta 206 40 Klimawandel: Herausforderungen für Bildung Erderwärmung als Motor globalen Wandels > Umweltschutz Sozial- und Naturwissenschaften verzahnen - - Klimadiplomatie internat, Energiepolitik, Innovation Entwicklungspolitik Außen-, Sicherheitspolitik Internationale Finanzmarktentwicklung ... - Klimaforschung, Physik, Biologie, Erdsystemanalyse Klimafolgenforschung, Ökonomie des Klimawandels Energiesysteme und gesellschaftliche Entwicklung Globale Gerechtigkeitsfragen Weltwissen - - - Fairness Interessenausgleich Nationale und globale Interessen/ Identitäten Demokratie unter Bedingungen der Globalisierung - post-westliche/ multipolare Weltordnung/ Aufstieg Asiens: EU Denken in globalen Zusammenhänge (wechselseitige Einmischung als Voraussetzung für Problemlösung): Weltenergiesystem globaler Emissionshandel, Welternährung, jedes zweite Gebäude in China „It is not important to predict the future, but to be prepared for the future.“ Perikles, 493-429 BC © 2007 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 41